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Above is pollster.com aggregate without Rasmussen and Gallup. See explanation.

Above is Rasmussen and Gallup alone. "All polls included" is here.

Dana Milbank:

When Todd Akin sneezes, Paul Ryan catches a cold.

The Republicans’ soon-to-be nominee for vice president is supposed to be delivering a message about jobs and the economy, but he’s finding he cannot escape his longtime House colleague, now a national pariah for his exotic views on rape.

If one thing is clear in the NBC/WSJ poll, it's that the Republican brand has MAJOR issues right now -- http://t.co/...
@mpoindc via Seesmic twhirl
Greg Sargent:
“It’s very tough for people like me who are pro-choice Republicans. It’s admittedly not a large caucus. But when I have to see a story like Todd Akin, and then turn to my wife and my daughters, who are looking at me and saying, `Really? These are the kind of people you’re associating with in the Republican Party?’ That’s a problem.”

That was GOP strategist Mark McKinnon talking to Andrea Mitchell on MSNBC just now, deftly capturing the mess Todd Akin has created for the GOP and the Romney/Ryan campaign.

NY Times:
Romney’s own influence in the party, already in doubt among some social conservatives because of his moderate stewardship as Massachusetts governor, is also on the line as Akin continues to defy him and the rest of the GOP leadership.

The flare-up also has driven the party off-message at a time when it had hoped to focus the campaign on President Obama’s handling of the economy.

Consider: The % of voters who have a "very negative" opinion of the GOP is at its second highest in the history of the NBC/WSJ poll.
@mpoindc via Seesmic twhirl
The Fix:
Overall, 63 percent of Republicans think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases according to a new poll from the Washington Post and the Kaiser Family Foundation. Drilling down further, a quarter of Republicans take the absolute position that it should always be illegal. (The question did not lay out precisely what the exceptions would be, but generally they are rape, incest and the life of the mother.)
TPM:
Democrats are touting their female-heavy convention lineup in the wake of Todd Akin’s controversial comments on rape, and the Republican Party’s decision to enshrine in its party platform its opposition to abortion even in cases of rape and incest.
The only time voters' negativity toward the GOP eclipsed the current figure was in mid-October 2006. http://t.co/...
@mpoindc via Seesmic twhirl
NPR:
Sadri for example, supported Barack Obama in the 2008 election and plans to do so again in 2012. Going back to the presidential race between Republican Bob Dole and Democrat Bill Clinton in 1996 — when Sadri was a small child — the disputed 2000 race between Democrat Al Gore and Republican George W. Bush, and the 2004 election between Bush and Democrat John Kerry, Sadri said he has always wanted the Democrat to win.

So why isn't he a registered Democrat?

"See, that's the problem," he said. "As soon as I say that I'm a Democrat, people look at me and say, 'Oh, you believe in this, you believe in this, you believe in this,' and I don't!"

This fall, Sadri will count himself as an independent voter. But if the campaigns think he's persuadable, they'll be wasting their time.

CHART OF DOOM for Mitt Romney: http://t.co/...
@mattyglesias via TweetDeck
pew graphic showing theat middle class thinks Obama favors them and the poor, romney favors the rich.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Rape (13+ / 0-)

    in December of 2008 I read a piece on rape that I thought deserved wider consideration so I made a post at Daily Kos.  In light of current political discussions, I thought it worth bringing up again so I put it uphere

    perhaps you might take a look

    "what the best and wisest parent wants for his child is what we should want for all the children of the community" - John Dewey

    by teacherken on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:33:19 AM PDT

    •  Our business is not to police. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thomask

      The rest of the world. We can encourage other countrys to do what we know is right by Not funding them in any way or by with drawing our Business from them.  But to force them is not our right. I think that many of the things that go on in other country's is morally wrong but it is still not permissible to make them change.   Mac

      Some truth will always be, among the lies we see.

      by waukez on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:19:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  new Qpoll-NYT (22+ / 0-)
    In Poll, Obama Is Given Trust Over Handling of Medicare

    By MICHAEL COOPER and DALIA SUSSMAN 3:00 AM ET

    New polls show that Medicare ranks as the third most crucial issue to likely voters in Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin, and that more respondents trust President Obama to manage it than Mitt Romney.

    http://www.nytimes.com/...

    that's today's, haven't jumped in yet but:

    no trends because it's a LV poll, new partnership.

    Obama is winning the argument.

    overall

    August 23, 2012 - Ryan Micro-Bump In Florida, Wisconsin, But Not Ohio, Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Swing State Poll Finds
    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:33:25 AM PDT

    •  great graphic (10+ / 0-)

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:38:24 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  when people get (5+ / 0-)

        a chance to hear and see the facts, the Democrats win.  We are going to have to do whatever is possible to make sure that happens, as there is a hell of a lot of money on the other side trying to obfuscate.

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:16:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  What is going in in Colorado? I was surprised (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Ginny in CO, MKSinSA, Larsstephens

        at how much more negative their answers in the charts are toward Obama, and more positive for Romney, than any other state.

        Mother Teresa: "If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other."

        by Amber6541 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:03:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  for whatever luck of the draw reason (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Amber6541, Ginny in CO, Larsstephens

          the CO sample was significantly (by a lot) older than the other states, even florida. Older voters skew republican.

          So, look to see if it's still true the next batch of polling.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:14:33 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Are the polls getting the cell voters? (0+ / 0-)

            It seems to fluctuate by location and pollsters. CO is demographically fairly young, and very active. It's not a good time of the year to find younger voters at home, within their cell roaming range, or willing to answer even known numbers -while kayaking/climbing/ bicycling...

            "People, even more than things, have to be restored, renewed, revived, reclaimed and redeemed; never throw out anyone. " Audrey Hepburn "A Beautiful Woman"

            by Ginny in CO on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 12:50:18 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  nonresponse to polls is a problem (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Ginny in CO, Larsstephens

              but the sample is supposed to be adjusted to match census demographics.

              From August 15 - 21, Quinnipiac University, in cooperation with CBS News and The New York Times, surveyed:

              1,241 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +- 2.8 percent;
              1,253 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +
              - 2.8 percent;
              1,190 Wisconsin likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percent.

              Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

              http://www.quinnipiac.edu/...

              "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

              by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 02:58:33 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, that's pretty (6+ / 0-)

      At the 50% mark in three key states -- states that the Dems would like to hold and that the Reps would need to win.

      And Romney did us a favor by strapping the Medicare anvil to his ankles.

      ad astra per alia porci

      by harrije on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:19:50 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  that's medicare (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        mdmslle, Larsstephens

        overall vote is closer but Romney loses Ohio

        "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

        by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:32:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Ezra Klein deconstructs Mitt's (4+ / 0-)

        whiteboard attempt to explain his non-plan to fix Medicare:

        The subject was the differences between Romney’s Medicare plan and President Barack Obama’s. Instead of a graph, Romney’s chart featured a 2x2 matrix -- basically, a box with four squares that’s heavily used in MBA courses and, interestingly, in political messaging seminars -- that he said would “bring as much clarity as possible.” I followed his talk carefully. But, ashamed as I am to admit it, I remain confused.
        The first column of boxes was devoted to Obama’s plan. One box tallied its effects on seniors over the next decade. It said: “$716b cut,” “4mm lose” and “15% X.” The next tallied up its effect on the next generation. This time, there was only one word: “Bankrupt.”
        On the right was the column of Romney’s boxes. The “seniors” box had just two words: “No change.” The “next gen” box beneath it had just one word: “solvent.”
        http://www.bloomberg.com/...

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:09:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Brand problems (12+ / 0-)

    Interesting oute from the NPR piece:

    "See, that's the problem," he said. "As soon as I say that I'm a Democrat, people look at me and say, 'Oh, you believe in this, you believe in this, you believe in this,' and I don't!"
    Maybe its time to flip that and use that as a weapon againts Republicans. "Oh you belive in all this guano psychotic bullshit!" Associate them with the crazies and really make them feel the pain of "brand problems."

    The Spice must Flow!

    by Texdude50 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:37:10 AM PDT

    •  keep in mind these are self selected (8+ / 0-)

      contrarians.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:38:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  For years (11+ / 0-)

        "Liberal" has be used as a derogatory term. Seeing how conservatives have tried to run the nation into the ground its time to return the favor.

        The Spice must Flow!

        by Texdude50 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:47:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Yes (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          CoExistNow, Amber6541

          Liberals were the crazy pot smoking hippies. Weren't adult and didn't understand how the real world worked. Now we need to be labeled as the ones who don't want people to die because they don't have healthcare, or don't want seniors to go hungry or don't want to deny a rape or incest victim the choice of an abortion.

          Divide and rule,the politician cries,unite and lead is the watchword of the wise. Goethe

          by our better angels on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:16:34 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Progressive is a better term (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Amber6541

          Liberal was pretty well tainted going all the way back to the to the early 20th Century. That's when the big corporations were bashing the labor unions and saw them as the avante garde coming from the Russian Revolution. Remember the WOWlies? Then the McCarthy era went after red sympathizers and pinkos. Remember Nixon and Helen Gahagen Douglas? I'm proud to be a progressive.

          the Republican brand is totally bankrupt.

          by vlyons on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:45:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  well, I was an indie from aged 18 until 2009 (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT, skohayes, belle1, waukez, Amber6541

        when I was 41.

        I wasn't a contrarian.

        My philosophy was that i didn't believe that political solutions would always necessarily be liberal or conservative and that it required an examination of the situation at hand to determine was strategy would work best AT THAT TIME.

        Now, the reason I switched in 2009 and became a democrat was because the GOP's solutions are not worthy of consideration anymore. I'm not dismissive of conservative ideology, per se. I think Eisenhower, for example, was a smart guy. And I do believe that there needs to be balance in government and private industry. But really, today's GOP is really not worthy of consideration.

        The conservative wing of the democratic party is the GOP of yesteryear. So really, I see no problem being a registered democrat since there is literally nothing the GOP is talking about that makes sense as a solution for what's going on in our nation or world.

        I share this so that we, here, can get some perspective and perhaps have the correct understanding of some of these types of people. So when you meet them, you don't consider them contrarian, but have an understanding of why they think the way they do. And possibly be able to talk some sense into them.

        For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

        by mdmslle on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:40:45 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  no insult meant (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle, skohayes, Delilah, askew

          though the data is crystal clear and unarguable: most indies aren't indies in voting pattern. They typically vote one way or the other, like this guy, and are not persuadable. And deny they are party affiliated, maybe for great reasons.

          But the juicy quotes are what's in the paper.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:47:22 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I tended to vote democratic but not always. (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            DemFromCT

            I wonder if I would have been lumped in there with "most".

            If I mostly voted democratic but once or twice voted republican would i have been considered not independent in voting pattern?

            How are they arriving at that? It's awfully sketchy.

            Also as a side note: In 2007/8 in my town in central florida, i was active with dem volunteer/election efforts. To the point where they invited me to be a delegate. I wasn't even a registered democrat! But since I considered it an honor, I went to the website and backed out because i had to "declare loyalty" to the party. That squicked me out big time. So I decided against it. I also felt that many of my views (at that time) weren't "liberal" (or what is considered liberal). Declaring a party is ultimately about belonging to a group of like minded folks. I wasn't sure how much I had in common with the democratic party.

            For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

            by mdmslle on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:05:29 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  There's different wings in the Democratic party .. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              mdmslle

              ... there's pro war Democrats, pro peace Democrats, civil libertarian democrats, social authoritarian Blue Dog Democrats, Hedge Fund Democrats, old New Deal Democrats ... the party stretches from the center right through the center to the center left with some from the left as well.

              Support Lesbian Creative Works with Yuri anime and manga from ALC Publishing

              by BruceMcF on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 01:39:25 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  well I know that now. but then i didn't and I'm (0+ / 0-)

                not sure that was really the entire thing for me anyway.

                As I said, there was more to it than just that. And let's face it, as an RKBA dem, for example, i'm still a bit of an outcast to the mainstream democratic line. OTOH, i consider myself a democratic socialist as well. So, just because there's a big tent, doesn't mean that there's great camaraderie with the mainstream of the party.

                Fortunately I got over it and decided to register as a dem. But I guess my point is that as an indie, I wasn't someone who was "afraid to admit" affiliation, or "couldn't make up my mind" or any of the other things people think indies are.

                For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

                by mdmslle on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:14:26 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  I was a libertarian until 2007 (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Amber6541, mdmslle

          Then I had to go Democratic as there was nowhere else to have my vote be heard.    And I am a proud to be called Liberal.  Mac

          Some truth will always be, among the lies we see.

          by waukez on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 07:27:57 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I too, was registered Independent during most (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          mdmslle, MKSinSA

          of my voting years, until the Republicans no longer offered any candidates or ideas that were reasonable.  The few Republicans that I used to vote for changed their party affiliation to Democrat, I expect for many of the same reasons I did.

          Mother Teresa: "If we have no peace, it is because we have forgotten that we belong to each other."

          by Amber6541 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 09:24:11 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Some people just don't want to talk about their (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DemFromCT, skohayes, tb mare, Amber6541

      politics with others and find it easier to say "I'm an independent" or "I'm undecided".   Considering the high degree of polarization in the Country at the present I think it is reasonable to expect conflict averse folks to shut up or beg off in political discussions.  Further, some people's employment situation would call for keeping a very low profile if they are liberal.  I'm old and don't give a damn anymore what people think of me so I can be just a mouthy as I please, but not all people have that freedom.

      Suppose you were an idiot. And suppose you were a Republican. But I repeat myself. Harry Truman

      by ratcityreprobate on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:34:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'm openly liberal (5+ / 0-)

        with tons of conservative voters around me at work. They never talk politics with me. I tend to beat them over the head with facts.

        The Spice must Flow!

        by Texdude50 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:37:53 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  i declared as an indie in college when I decided (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DemFromCT, ratcityreprobate

        to major in journalism for exactly that reason.

        For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

        by mdmslle on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:42:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Bush turned me into a Dem. (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Amber6541

        Before that I voted both ways or for protest candidates like Anderson and Perot.

        If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

        by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:03:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I was an independent (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Amber6541

        until I moved here to Kansas in 1999, and realized there wasn't a Republican alive that I would ever vote for again in a national election.
        The crazy has been strong in these folks for a long time, they were Tea Party before the Tea Party was cool.
        This state is the testing ground for the Koch Brothers version of government, and with Sam Brownback at the helm and most of the "moderate" Republicans in the state legislature voted out in favor of the crazies in the last primary, I don't see a good future here.

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:16:14 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  "Todd Akin wrapped around Ryan's neck" (8+ / 0-)

    Albatross
    Anaconda
    Boa Constrictor

    The Visuals

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:38:13 AM PDT

  •  The Q-Polls are a breath of fresh air (6+ / 0-)

    Obama at 49% in FL in August is a big deal.  Medicare is now a top issue and Romney isn't faring that well.  It will change the calculus of how the average senior plans to vote.

    Over the course of this summer, Romney has not led in any battleground state poll issued by a non-GOP outfit except for 2:  PPP's poll in WI, and now has 3 credible data points showing the President at 49% w/an average lead of 3 points despite the Ryan bump (which will fade after our convention), and Q's CO poll earlier in the month (which seems like an outlier in retrospect given the other data points at that time).

    Obama looks like he will exceed 300 EVs on election day.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:41:49 AM PDT

  •  HOT SALE! 50% OFF! MUST SELL! (9+ / 0-)

    Announcing the Akin Anchor! The last boat accessory you will ever need!

    No matter how big of a storm may pass by, even in Tampa, the Akin Anchor holds firm. It grips the bottom of a barrel like a drunken sot grips his last call drink. Or like a TeaBuggerer clings to his shotgun and bible, ready to rid the world of abortion-loving, fascist, Kenyan, muslin sporting, racist, commits, intent on inflicting Sharia law on the unsuspecting!

    Get your Akin Anchor while they are still in stock! *

    *not available in states that still treasure rational thought. PAC super funds are eligible for group discounts. No refunds or returns, as all sales are final.

    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:44:50 AM PDT

  •  And then (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999

    there's this, which would be quite depressing if you honestly believed economics were the only thing in play.

    "That the people have a right to bear arms for the defence of themselves and the State ..."- Vermont Constitution Chapter 1, Article 16

    by kestrel9000 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 04:48:37 AM PDT

  •  Scarborough shocked that a bazillion House Goopers (16+ / 0-)

    co-sponsored rape bill.....Gosh Joe, you should maybe take a gander at Waldman's little daily missives. Also revisiting Mann and Ornstein might be helpful. We're only here to help.

  •  On thing is curious, Dem, about 1 thing, from a (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    statistical standpoint...

    You remove Gallup and Rasumuseen, presumably because you don't like them, but you leave the largest outliers in, presumably because you like what they say.

    Having run more correlations than I care to remember -- the result is predictable:

    You will skew heavily in the direction you like.

    The reason for that is simple:

    The distance calculations embedded into the process rely on squares, and that exaggerates the effect of single points that are far from the predicted point.

    That gets into some really tricky territory.  If those really distant points are actually good data, it calls everything else into question.  If everything else is good, the outliers screw up your correlation and bias your prediction.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:00:49 AM PDT

    •  I show daily trackers separately (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes, askew

      and the graph (and link)  makes a good argument as to why. I don't like polls with consistent methodological questions (Rasmussen especially, but see links for Gallup's undercounting of minorities). They are not hidden. if you don't buy the argument, add them back in.

      When Ras showed Obama +2 I still did not include it. it's because of the above, and the frequency of the trackers, which I think unfairly influences the averages.

      And actually, if you do, there's a 2 point difference, same person leads.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:08:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  and btw (4+ / 0-)

      I was in conversation with the pollster inventors then and now and I am confident I am using the graphs the way they were intended. That's why you can remove pollsters.

      This is how i think you get a better feel for what's going on. if you do not like it, do it your way.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:09:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's all fine. I was just talking about (0+ / 0-)

        statistics, and you leave the biggest outliers in, presumably because you like what they say.

        That might be an intentional bias ---

        numbers that fall in the same direction as your expectation, but differ only in magnitude might not look like outliers to you.

        Statistically,though, you generally grow suspicious of numbers that deviate too far from predicted values, no matter which side of the line they fall.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:17:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Mark McKinnon's dying swan act is getting old. (6+ / 0-)

    First he was a Repub, then "no labels," now a shamed Repub.

    Just leave the party or shut the hell up, McKinnon.

    If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:04:10 AM PDT

  •  I Love the Romney "CHART OF DOOM" (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ohkwai, skohayes

    It perfectly frames what this election is all about.  Can the top 1% actually buy this election as they are trying to do so they can become even more wealthy while condemning the rest of us to at least four years of economic slavery to them, or can the bottom 99% beat the top 1%'s enormous amount of campaign cash with an effective grassroots voter turnout effort so we can all live a little better instead of just the top 1%.

    Will boots on the ground triumph over bucks of advertising?  Chart's like this make me think it will happen.  

    "Some men see things as they are and ask, 'Why?' I dream of things that never were and ask, 'Why not?"

    by Doctor Who on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:05:58 AM PDT

    •  What about the 33% of poor people (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Laconic Lib

      who think Romney's policies will help them? Are they reachable? Methinks not. The cognitive dissonance is too great.

      More likely we will need to turn a chunk of the upper middle class and lower upper class voters in the Rmoney column.

  •  Interesting Ohio swing state results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, askew

    Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?

    39/45

    The only negative state of the three listed this week.

    Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

    41 yes, 53 F*** no!

    The other two states were only a few points negative.

  •  Repubs are going to have to take Akin to term. (5+ / 0-)

    Sorry, couldn't resist.

    If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:12:25 AM PDT

  •  We survive $500,000,000 of attack ads so far. (6+ / 0-)

    I guess we got another half a billion to go?

    If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

    by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:15:14 AM PDT

    •  best thing is, the majority of them from Romney (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Bush Bites, tb mare, Delilah

      will come in late october and probably be negative.

      By then, Obama will have banked probably more than 50% of his votes, especially in the "voter ID" swing states.

      just sayin.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:54:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I was (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Bush Bites, skillet

    getting worried (because that's sort of what I do) reading 538 yesterday.  It did not look too good and Nate was contemplating that there is a definite trend in the swing states towards Romney, which he speculated was a result of the money dumps in those states.

    I assume there will be a convention bump as well.  Voter suppression + the ton of money in swing states are going to have to be fought hard.

    Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

    by KibbutzAmiad on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:15:27 AM PDT

    •  yes, but look at the size of the effect (5+ / 0-)

      that nate was talking about. Look at his current prediction. This and next week are high water marks.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:26:40 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Haven't conventions been losing... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes

        ....their "bounce effects" over the past few cycles?

        I think I read that somewhere.

        If so, I bet it's a combination of less tv coverage and fewer people getting their news from the tv.

        If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

        by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:43:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I have been (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Bush Bites

        warned not to take most polls too seriously until October.  I'm in Illinois.  Should local Obama supporters focus on Wisconsin, Iowa, or Ohio, in terms of travel and resources?

        Justice For Will Will spent his brief, courageous life fighting for the rights we all take for granted. Please share his story to support the fight!

        by KibbutzAmiad on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:44:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Hate to inject a gloomy note here, but did you (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DRo

    see this item about the election model on Raw Story?

    http://www.rawstory.com/...

    If they've "never been wrong" and they're predicting a Romney win, that's discouraging news. But how can anyone vote for Romney-Ryan when they want to make abortion completely illegal and would like to kill Medicare?  I don't believe their lies about "over-55s" won't see any changes.  I think the minute they got in they'd set about killing it and SS altogether.

    It's been said that people get the governments they deserve but the half of the country that votes against Romney won't deserve what's going to happen to them.

    "Religion is what keeps the poor from murdering the rich."--Napoleon

    by Diana in NoVa on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:18:40 AM PDT

    •  I don't know. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes

      Seems like they base their model on national economic numbers, whereas I would give greater weight to the economies in the swing states.

      Also:

      Although their model correctly predicted all presidential elections since 1980, Bickers and Berry acknowledged some factors not considered by their analysis could swing the election. In addition, changes in the economic health of the country from now until the election will alter the results of the model.
      Finally, their record doesn't impress me too much. I could have predicted all of the elections since 1980, except maybe Bush v. Gore (I expected Bush to win -- heh, heh)

      If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

      by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:27:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  um... (9+ / 0-)

      They have never been wrong?

      Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.
      @fivethirtyeight via TweetDeck
      Don't believe everything you read.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:27:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  oh, well... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      skohayes

      Never-Wrong Pundit Picks Obama to Win in 2012

      we got one of those "never been wrong" guys, too.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:28:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Reminds me of the economy collapse guys. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DRo, skohayes

        Everybody who said the economy was going to collapse -- even though any idiot could see it was a house of cards built on borrowing and bad paper -- is now considered a genius.

        If Obama didn't get Bin Laden because he didn't pull the trigger; then Bin Laden didn't take down the World Trade Center because he didn't fly the planes.

        by Bush Bites on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:33:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  ericlewis0 posted (5+ / 0-)

      a Nate debunking of this story.  I'll look for it for you.

      Nate Silver calls B.S. on Romney win prediction! (7+ / 0-)

      A story was making the rounds today that some group that had accurately predicted the winners of the last 8 presidential elections had determined Mittens will win in November. When I first saw it on RawStory, my heart sank. But Nate Silver over at 538 tweeted this about half an hour ago:

         

      Also, it's false advertising to claim CU model has predicted the last 8 elections right. It's a new model. Hasn't predicted anything yet.

      " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

      by gchaucer2 on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:31:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Always a First Time (0+ / 0-)

      The difference between this election and the past ones is that we have those elections as precedent.

      This year is not "business as usual" (fingers crossed).

  •  Obama does great wise ass and I love it. (10+ / 0-)

    copyied from TPM this morning...

    President Obama dinged Missouri Republican Senate nominee Todd Akin at a New York fundraiser Wednesday night.

    "Recently some of you have been paying attention to the commentary about the senator from Missouri, Mr. Akin, who … the interesting thing here is that this, this is an individual who sits on the House Committee on Science and Technology but somehow missed science class," Obama said, according to the pool report. "And it’s representative of the desire to go backwards instead of forwards and fight fights that we thought were settled 20 or 30 years ago."

  •  Progressive Liberals (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    shoeless, skohayes

    That appears to be the term which is getting caught in the throats of those old GOP congressmen these days. They are a dying breed thanks to the Tea Party poisoning their brand so perfectly.

    It's interesting that they can't seem to dig themselves out of the hole they dug for themselves when they started courting the Christian Conservatives back in the 80's and 90's. Now they have control over everything.

    "I think it's the duty of the comedian to find out where the line is drawn and cross it deliberately." -- George Carlin, Satirical Comic,(1937-2008)

    by Wynter on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:23:38 AM PDT

  •  Is Akin a "legitimate" Republican? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    a2nite

    Is Romney? Ryan?

    "Liberty without virtue would be no blessing to us" - Benjamin Rush, 1777

    by kovie on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:26:35 AM PDT

  •  Soooooooo..... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT, gchaucer2

    I want to say that my wife has family in Florida that will be impacted by Hurricane Isaac.  There's a lot of people in the path of that storm that have nothing to do with the GOP and their convention...and they need all the national support we can give them.  

    That being said, I want to just pose this question about the political impact of the storm.  Does the GOP do better NOT holding a televised convention?  Seriously, with everything we know about Romney and Ryan's numbers - the more people see them, the less they like them - it appears they could actually do themselves more good by NOT spending a week on television, garnering sympathy for having to cancel, and trying to re-invent themselves after the Dems are done.  

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:28:15 AM PDT

  •  Romney wants to talk about the economy (9+ / 0-)

    I continue to read/hear how all of the many distractions are getting in the way of Romney talking about the economy.

    But it is clear that Romney does not want to talk about the economy.  His campaign has been underway for well over a year, but he has found every excuse not to talk about the economy.  Economists have been calling for his budget numbers and specific details of his proposals, but he has refused to comply.  

    Romney and his team use the issue of the economy as a shield, saying they want to talk about the economy as a way of avoiding talking about his tax returns, his time at Bain, his record as governor, his off-shore accounts, his past policy positions, his current policy positions or any other issue.  

    •  right (9+ / 0-)

      Romney wants to talk about welfare queens.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 05:40:37 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  More broadly, he wants to cite anything... (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Delilah, Laconic Lib

        ...that would be a "drag on robust economic growth." Robust Economic Growth being only those things that increase income wealth inequality.

        I was partially listening to NPR's series "First and Main" this morning when I heard the interviewee, a restaurant owner say of Romney:

        "He has done what I've done, so I can relate to him. I mean, he's made a payroll, you know; he's hired, fired people; he's [run] businesses, many businesses; he did the Olympics. I mean, I guess I look at that — he knows what business goes through and what it takes to run a business," she says.
        That's her story and she's sticking to it. She further explains that Clinton "understood business in a way that Obama never could" (paraphrasing), even as she admits they have pretty much the same background: non-business owners who developed an expertise in Academic Constitutional Law.

        It's what we're up against, folks. I bet her nail lady doesn't "get it" either.

        When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

        by Egalitare on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:04:38 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Akin is "wrapped around Romney's neck" too... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    greenbird

    Romney has his own 'splainin to do about his Close ties to misogynist, nazi study-quoting, self-appointed "expert" on women's reproductive functions, and crazed loon, Dr. (?) Willke.

    As reported in multiple articles yesterday, Willke was an "important" surrogate for Romney's pro-life agenda during the 2008 campaign.

    Romney still is "pallin'" around with Willke: Mitt Romney met Todd Akin doctor Jack Willke during 2012 campaign.

    Ryan's not the only one at the top of the GOP ticket that has Willke issues...

  •  Interesting photos (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DemFromCT

    of our "mighty Mississippi" last year during record flooding, and this year after record drought, as seen from space:

    http://www.theatlanticcities.com/...

    “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

    by skohayes on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 06:46:30 AM PDT

  •  need help with chart (0+ / 0-)

    I would like to better understand these charts.  When I put the target symbol over the individual dots, it gives a specific number.  However, I don't understand the relationship of the numbers to the colors.  for example most of the lower pink dots have Obama with a higher percentage.  Why are they pink?  For the dots near the top of the graph the pink ones have Romney leading and the blue ones have Obama leading as I might expect.  Not true on the lower part of the charts...Help?

  •  Those darned abortion views (0+ / 0-)

    Distracting us from what the Repubs REALLY care about: killing welfare, stopping those commie atheist fascist Muslims who are out to get us, and making sure we're all the right height.

    16, Progressive, Indian-American, Phillies Phan. Obama/Om/Chase Utley

    by vidanto on Thu Aug 23, 2012 at 11:09:36 AM PDT

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