A note at TPM here caught my eye about a newly released CNN poll.
I think you will find the stuff below the squiggle worth your time - at least I hope so !
Some of the numbers
924 registered voters, 3% margin of error
719 likely voters, 3.5% margin of error
Mode: Live telephone interviews
CNN release
National
2012 President
49% Obama (D), 47% Romney (R) (chart)
Obama Job Approval
50% approve, 44% disapprove (chart)
Favorable / Unfavorable
Barack Obama: 54 / 44 (chart)
Mitt Romney: 48 / 46 (chart)
Joe Biden: 44 / 47 (chart)
Paul Ryan: 41 / 38 (chart)
More numbers
Among the larger pool of registered voters, some of whom will stay at home on Election Day, the survey indicates the president holds a 52%-43% lead. That number is little changed from CNN's previous poll, conducted in early August, before Romney named House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan as his running mate.
Some comments from Charlie Cook :
Still, this race shouldn’t be as tight as it is. Whether one looks at polling measurements of whether voters think the country is headed in the right direction, at consumer confidence, or at key economic measurements such as growth in gross domestic product, deviations in the unemployment rate, or the change in real personal disposable income, it is puzzling, to say the least, why polls show President Obama and Mitt Romney running neck and neck. Incumbents generally don’t get reelected with numbers like we are seeing today
hardly a natural candidate. I suspect that the results of a Myers-Briggs personality test would not have suggested that he pursue politics as his vocation.
Second, and compounding the first reason, is Romney’s campaign advertising. Until his campaign finally began airing biographical ads a few weeks ago, his election effort seemed to studiously avoid trying to establish any bond, any connection, or any level of trust between him and American voters
Bringing Medicare, Social Security, and deep spending cuts into the conversation only distracts from the focus on the struggling economy and makes Romney’s path to victory that much more challenging.
(finally on the consequences of being so adamantly opposed to The Dream Act)As my National Journal colleague Ronald Brownstein has pointed out, it is possible for Romney to win a share of the white vote generally found in GOP landslide victories and still lose the election, because he is doing so badly among African-Americans and Latinos.
FDR won with this type of economy for the same reason that President Obama will win: he cares about how people are hurting and he supports policies that will help the hurting. The other party won't. Willard has his, his wealthy buddies have his, and that is all that he cares about.
Ronald Brownstein is, imo, rather conservative and right wing, but this is some smart analysis :
For President Obama, the winning formula can be reduced to 80/40. In 2008, Obama won a combined 80 percent of the votes of all minority voters, including not only African-Americans but also Hispanics, Asians, and others. If Obama matches that performance this year, he can squeak out a national majority with support from about 40 percent of whites—so long as minorities at least match the 26 percent of the vote they cast last time.
Obama’s strategic equation defines Mitt Romney’s formula: 61/74. Romney’s camp is focused intently on capturing at least 61 percent of white voters. That would provide him a slim national majority—so long as whites constitute at least 74 percent of the vote, as they did last time, and Obama doesn’t improve on his 80 percent showing with minorities.
On its face, the math is tougher for Romney.
4:25 PM PT: That 50% approval rating is ginormous - if that is accurate and it holds, then Willard's pathway to victory simply does not exist.
They will lie a lot about our President at the convention - however, based upon Willard going full birther, I think it will hurt them , not the President.
4:34 PM PT: I must admit I really like this part at the end of Brownstein's piece :
Republican strategists clearly feel the weight of trying to assemble a national majority with so little support among minorities that they must win three in five whites. “This is the last time anyone will try to do this,” one said.
The. last. time.
hahahahahaha
We all know the demographic changes taking place in our country - I am thrilled by it - but republicans are terrified due to their xenophobia which produces that fear.
Thus far, President Obama and his campaign have owned Willard's campaign. They successfully defined Willard as a slick, uber rich, self-centered tax evader who only cares about life for the one percent. Bain deeply wounded Willard. The tax issues opens up that wound more. This forced the Willard wealth unit to feel they needed a "gamechanger" to try to reset the Etch a Sketch. They also thought that this would be a base election - hence the Ryan pick and the birther remarks.
However, to gin up their base, they must turn off the few people in the middle, and all those who are not members of that base. This was a grave mistake. Introducing Ryan who is opposed to a woman's choice in all situations even rape, akin to Akin, their point man to destroy Medicare, into this election was a major mistake. And Ryan will not help them win Wisconsin - only CD1 in Wisconsin has any idea of his extremism - he would not win any statewide office. After the rest of Wisconsin views his extremism, Wisconsin will be safely in President Obama's column.
The rmoney campaign is constantly on defense and making one mistake after another.
And they have yet to show a strategy for winning the election without winning Ohio - and their chances of winning Ohio are very small.