Skip to main content

I'm sorry that the charts for my data aren't included in this post.  I don't know how to embed them in one of my diaries.  If anyone can tell me how, it'd be much appreciated.

Afterthe latest shooting today in NYC, I started wondering if the bad economy might have anything to do with the recent number of mass shootings.   What I did can hardly be called a full analysis, and as the WSJ shows the correlation-cause relationship is hard to pin.  But I found two things.  First, that there is a positive correlation between the US unemployment rate and the homicide rate for every year between 1948 and 2006.  The r-squared is 29.5% with p < .0001.  (For the non-statistically inclined, that means that 29.5% of the variation in the homicide rate is explained by variation in the unemployment rate.  The p value means that the probability of this relationship being due to chance is less than .01%)

What was also interesting is that there is a stronger relationship between the unemployment rate of the previous year and a given year's homicide rate.  So the unemployment rate of 2004 is a better predictor of the murder rate in 2005 than 2005's unemployment rate.   In this case for the years 1949-2005, the r-squared was 36.6%.

I don't see how there could be a one-to-one connection here, because it would almost seem like the homicide rate drops before the unemployment rate.  But especially in the 70's and 80's they seem to change together.  This is fascinating. I'd love to know more about what is behind this relationship.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site