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With the Tuesday primary coming up, the pre-primary voter registration counts have been published.

This diary is part of a series looking at voter registration in Arizona, in order to help determine whether the State could become competitive in the upcoming elections. Frustratingly the Democrats have still not recovered to 2008 levels, and voters are being transitioned from the "active" voter rolls to the "inactive" voter rolls. I presume a large amount of inactive voters are being kicked off the rolls altogether, as Obama for America must be registering lots of voters...

What is really messed up is that while registered Republicans make up around 36% of active voters compared to the Dems 30%, for inactive voters the Dems outnumber the GOP 31% to 26%.  

For anyone that can provide a bit more analysis on these numbers feel free... but at this moment it appears that the Dems have failed to make much headway despite making some progress in blue districts.

Overall Numbers
Good news ! The number of active registered Dem voters has increased from 946,614 to 935,098 ! Wait a second that is a decrease... The total number of "active" voters is down by 45 thousand overall. How is that possible given Obama For America are registering voters left and right in Arizona ? Well overall the number of "inactive" voters has increased by 81,507, so it seems the number of active voters pushed onto the inactive voter rolls is greater than the number of newly registered voters.

Active Voters - August 2012               Active Voters - June 2012
Democrat:     935,098    (30.16%)       Democrat:     946,614    (30.09%)
Republican:    1,113,123 (35.90%)       Republican:    1,130,164 (35.92%)
Others:         1,052,345 (33.94%)       Others:         1,069,195 (33.99%)
Total:           3,100,575                    Total:           3,145,973
%VEP:          69.23%                        %VEP:          70.24%    

Inactive Voters - August 2012            Inactive Voters - June 2012
Democrat:     167,390 (31.32%)          Democrat:       147,599 (32.59%)
Republican:    139,232 (26.05%)          Republican:     113,125 (24.98%)
Others:         227,836 (42.63%)          Others:          192,227 (42.44%)
Total:           534,458                       Total:             452,951
%VEP:          11.93%                        %VEP:            10.11%

Total Voters - August 2012                Total Voters - June 2012
Democrat:     1,102,488 (30.33%)       Democrat:     1,094,213  (30.40%)
Republican:    1,252,355 (34.45%)       Republican:    1,243,289 (34.55%)
Others:         1,280,190 (35.22%)       Others:         1,261,422 (35.05%)
Total:           3,635,033                    Total:            3,598,924
%VEP:          81.2%                         %VEP:           80.36%

Assumption: Voting Eligible Population is 4,478,732 which I calculated using the data from the Independent Redistricting Commission submission to the Department of Justice.

Key Legislative District Statistics
Okay, so it is not just about the overall stats, what is happening in the key Legislative Districts ? Well I couldn't help but notice that the number of registered voters in red districts contains the lions share of the loss in active registered voters. The table below compares the 15 most red seats against the 15 most blue seats.

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If you compare the 18 most red seats against the 12 most blue seats the numbers are even more skewed.

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On average there is almost no loss of active registered voters in the 12 bluest districts, almost all of the losses have occurred in the 18 reddest districts. In fact, there is a modest gain of registered Dems in the 12 bluest districts !

So it seems that for one reason or another the blue parts of Arizona contain relatively motivated registered voters when compared to the red parts. Of course... without knowing how many active voters were shifted to the inactive voter rolls it is hard to know the true state of affairs.

Which individual districts had the biggest gains ?

Total voters: the Mohave based 5th (+1,711) and the Tucson based 9th (+1,109),
                   10th (+1,048), and 2nd (+1,004)
Dem Voters: the Phoenix based 27th (+737), and the Tucson based 9th (+641),  
                  10th (+523), and 2nd (+534)
GOP Voters: the Mohave based 5th (+742) and the Navajo Nation focused 7th (+606)
Oth Voters: the Phoenix based 30th (+413)

Which individual districts had the biggest losses ?

Total voters: the Prescott based 1st (-5,702) and several red seats lose 4,000-5000.
Dem Voters: the Navajo Nation based 7th (-1,092) and the Tempe/Mesa based 26th
                  (-772) were the blue seats with the biggest losses and several red seats
                  lost around 1,000-1,500 Dems with the 25th (-1,532) the highest loss,  
                  along with the battleground Flagstaff based 6th (-1,019).
GOP Voters:  the Prescott based 1st (-1,763), the 12th (-2,132) the 17th
                  (-1,788) and the Mesa based 25th (-1,762) and several red seats have
                  lost around 1,000-1,500 GOP voters.
Oth Voters:   the Prescott based 1st (-2,587), the 12th (-1,903) the 17th
                  (-1,983)

Overall which seats have the highest % of Voting Eligible Population that are registered voters, whether active or inactive ? You guessed it, as per last time, the Hispanic seats are still those with the lowest % of VEP that are Registered Voters. Interestingly the Secretary of State doesn't publish the combined figures, so I had to add up the active and inactive voters.

Photobucket

Trends
The number of active voters is down, as no doubt Bennett directed the county clerks to do a purge to ensure that non-existent voter fraud doesn't occur. All types of registered voter was down with 11,516 less Dems, 17,041 less GOP, and 16,850 less Others. A total of 45,398 less active voters.

The number of inactive voters is up, with 19,791 more Dems, 26,107 more GOP and 35,609 more others. A total of 81,507 more inactive voters than in June...

Conclusions
-We are still going backwards overall, although making slight progress in blue districts, it is hard to see how we can register 100,000 more voters as OFA wanted to do.
- We still need more data to identify how many voters are being made "inactive voters" by Ken Bennett.

Further Info
For my spreadsheets with the full numbers, please see below the fold.

Please vote in the poll.

Any feedback appreciated.

Arizona Registered Voters - By The Numbers
The following tables show the numbers and percentages of registered voters by party. The final column shows the % of the Voting Eligible Population that are registered voters.  

The Voting Eligible Population is my calculation created by using the Hispanic CVAP figures. The colour coding reflects the Democratic seats (blue), the competitive seats (white), the GOP leaning seats (pink), and the Solid GOP seats (red).  

Registered Voters

Registration Numbers (Aug)                                                                                            

If you want to see the background to this diary please check out these other diaries:

If you want to see the background to this diary please check these previous Taking Arizona Diaries dealing with voter registration

Originally posted to CF of Aus on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 05:01 AM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

What is happening with Registered Voters in Arizona ?

47%20 votes
33%14 votes
19%8 votes

| 42 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (13+ / 0-)

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 05:01:45 AM PDT

  •  tipped & rec'ed (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    GDbot, PSzymeczek, MichaelNY, CF of Aus

    The radical Republican party is the party of oppression, fear, loathing and above all more money and power for the people who robbed us.

    by a2nite on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 06:27:01 AM PDT

  •  Will you do a part on the 6th SD? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    I know that it's on the edge, but Tom Chabin is a good candidate and the district has Flagstaff.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 08:34:31 AM PDT

  •  Question: (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    What does it mean to be on the "inactive" voter roll?  Does it mean you are no longer registered? Or does it just mean that you haven't voted recently?

    "A liberal is a man or a woman or a child who looks forward to a better day, a more tranquil night, and a bright, infinite future." - Leonard Bernstein

    by outragedinSF on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 11:35:37 AM PDT

    •  It still means you can vote, but it is a trick (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      To keep voters off the roll... If you don't vote at the last election you get put on the inactive voter list... Or if they send you a letter to check that you are still a valid voter and you don't respond you get put on the inactive voter roll. And if they send you a letter and you don't respond again you get taken off the roll altogether.

      So it is designed to make it difficult for poor people who move around (renters) a lot to vote... Or it makes it more difficult for low turnout voters to vote - so disenchanted de,ocrats who didn't vote in 2010 would be on the inactive voter list.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 11:46:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  interesting (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        In Oregon you're put on the inactive list if you don't vote in eight consecutive elections, or if they mail you a registration card and it is undeliverable.  If you demonstrate your address you can get a ballot, though, and become an active voter.  If you're inactive they don't mail you a ballot.  But you're still on the rolls, and its easy to re-register.

        Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

        by James Allen on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 02:58:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Similar in theory to AZ but in Oregon (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          I imagine there is no underhanded tactics to depress the vote as the reason for the rule. it is two elections for Az rather less than Oregons eight.

          Voter turnout is pretty high in Oregon isn't it?

          So if done properly it is probably not a bad system I guess.

          Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

          by CF of Aus on Sat Aug 25, 2012 at 07:37:48 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  actually I'm pretty sure I messed up (0+ / 0-)

            and it's only four elections.

            Yes, Oregon has one of the highest turnout statistics of all states.  The highest turnout states are those who have election day registration and vote by mail.

            Counties generally do what they're supposed to do, no less.  However, some county clerks are more partisan than others in their administration.  In 2004 the Clackamas County clerk refused to register thousands of people whose forms were submitted before the deadline-until after the election.  According to her she didn't have enough time.

            Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

            by James Allen on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 03:03:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

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