Skip to main content

I decided to try drawing Ohio.  I stuck to COI as best as I could, but made some tweaks based on competitiveness.  I'll explain as I go along.
Photobucket
1st: Steve Chabot (R) vs. Fmr. Rep. Steve Dreihaus (D)
PVI: D+1.5
Rating: Tilt D
Cities: Cincinnati, most suburbs

From a COI standpoint, I think the western edge of Hamilton County is the least suburban and therefore the best to remove, but it just looks too ugly for a commission to approve, so I settled for this.  Chabot and Dreihaus would face each other for the third time, and I'd give the slight edge to Dreihaus, who did better than expected in his 2010 loss.

Photobucket
2nd: John Boehner (R) or Brad Wenstrup (R)
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Hamilton, Middletown, Outer Cincinnati Suburbs
Boehner's seat, which combines suburbs with rural ares, is split along COI lines, and this becomes the second of two seats that are purely Cincinnati focused.  Wenstrup would run here if Boehner didn't; both live in the the district.

Photobucket
3rd: Mike Turner (R)
PVI: R+4
Rating: Likely R
Cities: Dayton, Dayton Suburbs, Xenia
The easiest seat to draw on the map.  The Dayton area is basically two counties big, and they almost exactly make a congressional district.
With the decline of urban Dayton, this should get even redder as the decade goes on.

Photobucket
OH-4: Brad Wenstrup (R) or Steve Austria (R) or Both
PVI: R+12
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Springfield, Portsmouth, Rural Territory
This mostly rural district continues the elaborate game of musical chairs.  Wenstrup will run here if Boehner runs in the suburban 2nd rather than the rural 8th.  If the seat is open, former Rep. Steve Austria, who bowed to the establishment and retired this cycle, may get back in the game; he's still young.  Combining Springfield with all this rural territory was a necessity; this is one of two leftover rural districts, with Gibbs getting the other, that aren't perfect COIs but aren't terrible either.

Photobucket
5th: Bob Latta (R) vs. ? (D)
PVI: R+1
Rating: Tilt R
Cities: Lorain, Elyria, Mansfield, Sandusky, Findlay
This Northern Ohio swing district is the type of competitive district both parties hate.  Latta is the incumbent, but he doesn't seem all that popular and he's a backbencher in the House.
Big North South divide here in terms of voting; closer to the lake is more liberal.

Photobucket
6th: Bill Johnson (R) vs. ? (D)
PVI: R+5, but much more Dem downballot
Rating: Tilt R
Cities: Athens, Zanesville, New Philadelphia
A rural, Appalachian swing district, this is as competitive as you can draw without gerrymandering in SE Ohio.  Johnson will have tough fights to get re-election here.

Photobucket
7th: Bob Gibbs (R)
PVI: R+12
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Newark, Lancaster, Wooster
Mostly rural, this district is safe for Gibbs.  I really don't know what else to say about it.

Photobucket
8th: John Boehner (R) or Jim Jordan (R)
PVI: R+18
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Lima, Troy
Rural, home of Gleem.  Jordan and Boehner have a strong dislike of each other; I think Jordan would run even if Boehner chose to run here.  I think Jordan would end up running uncontested in the primary, however, with Boehner running in his home district.

Photobucket
9th: Marcy Kaptur (D)
PVI: D+5
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Toledo, Bowling Green, Defiance
There's really only one way to draw this district.  Closer to 2020, it will probably be competitive, since Kaptur likely won't stay on all decade.  For now it's Safe for her.

Photobucket
10th: Dennis Kucinich? (D)
PVI: D+3
Rating: Tilt R with Kucinich, Tilt D otherwise
Cities: Cleveland and Suburbs
Democrats' worst nightmares are realized; Kucinich has a seat he can be competitive in containing his of West Cleveland.  Democrats should hold the district with anyone else.

Photobucket
11th: Marcia Fudge (D)
PVI: Something Crazy (D+24, actually)
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Cleveland and Suburbs
50.3% White, which can be fixed by swapping a few precincts with the 10th if necessary.  The Democratic primary should be heavily Black (at least 1/3 of the Whites are Republican here, and probably more).  The ridiculous and unneccessary snake shaped district going to Akron is eliminated; no commission in their right mind will keep it.

Photobucket
12th: Pat Tiberi (R) and Steve Stivers (R)
PVI: R+5
Rating: Safe R
Cities: Columbus Suburbs, Delaware
A fun primary which would, in my estimation, lead to a Tiberi victory would be followed by an easy general election.  If Franklin County continues to get more liberal, this, like Kaptur's district, is one to watch by mid to late decade.  I tried to keep as much of Columbus as possible in one district, but a few weird arms of the city ended up here.

Photobucket
13th: Jim Renacci (R) vs. Betty Sutton (D)
PVI: D+2
Rating: Tilt D
Cities: Akron and Suburbs, Medina
While I expect Renacci to prevail in November, Sutton would win under the new lines.  Summit County is reunited, and along with Medina it makes a swingy and almost complete CD.

Photobucket
14th: David Joyce (R)
PVI: EVEN
Rating: Pure Tossup
Cities: Mentor, Warren, Ashtabula
Another district in a corner, this combines some Akron and Cleveland metro area with more manufacturing based areas.  It looks nice and is extremely swingy, so the commission will love it.

Photobucket
15th: Joyce Beatty (D)
PVI: D+12
Rating: Safe D
Cities: Columbus and some Suburbs
Safe for any Democrat.

Photobucket
16th: Tim Ryan (D) or OPEN
PVI: D+2
Rating: Likely D or Tilt D
Cities: Youngstown, Canton, Alliance
3 counties fit perfectly here and also make this competitive when Open.  Ancestrally D means Generic D would still win by about six or eight in an Open Seat.

So...that leads to:
R: 6
D: 3
Tilt/Lean R: 2
Tilt/Lean D: 4
Tossup: 1

In a 50 50 year, that's 8R, 7D, 1T.  Looks fair.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (11+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    politicohen.com
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 04:20:38 PM PDT

  •  Does the 15th have all of Columbus in it? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY

    Or is CoI more complex than that?

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 05:06:28 PM PDT

    •  It has about 85% of Columbus (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades, MichaelNY

      I wanted it to not be quite as ugly.  But it's pretty close to the whole city.  And the neighborhoods not in it are pretty much on the exterior and probably quite suburban.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 05:12:25 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  the point?? (0+ / 0-)

    what is his dilemma?? when are they redistricting??

    •  I was wondering that too (5+ / 0-)

      Our issue at this point is that the Republicans are fighting like a cornered animal to defeat Issue 2, Voters First Ohio. They have created ballot language which essentially lies to the voters and will give it no chance of passing. That's in court now; the Voters First Ohio group has sued. The Cleveland Plainly Republican (Plain Dealer) is already unleashing a lie campaign against it, calling it a partisan scheme when in fact people all along the ideological spectrum are FOR it and the opposition is strictly a partisan position. They're making up crap like it's too complicated and appeals court judges don't want to pick members of the nonpartisan citizens commission the way the amendment provides. There is one reason and one alone for opposing it: it would take away the Republicans' unfair partisan edge immediately.

      Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

      by anastasia p on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 06:06:51 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Latta doesn't live in your 5th (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Ahianne

    It's not remotely near where he lives and he's represented little of it. He wouldn't be the incumbent here. His incumbent district is solidly the one you have drawn as the 7th.

    Take the "Can't(or)" out of Congress. Support E. Wayne Powell in Va-07. http://www.ewaynepowell.com/

    by anastasia p on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 06:02:40 PM PDT

    •  Wikipedia says (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      he lives in Bowling Green, which is near but not in the 5th.  I'd assume the party would defer to him, as the 7th is open and he won't beat Kaptur.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Aug 26, 2012 at 09:55:04 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Interesting map (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn, MichaelNY

    Allow me to give my thoughts.  

    The 1st and 2nd make perfect sense.  I figure that Cincinnati will be drawn in this manner, with a slightly D-leaning seat centered on the city and a super-R district in the suburbs/exurbs.  

    The 3rd is nice and compact.  When I drew it, I took out the parts of Miami county and the east end of Greene County, instead moving up into Clark County toward Springfield.  This made the seat even more of a swing seat, maybe R+2 or so.  

    I like the way you drew northwest/north OH, with the 5th taking over the north central and the 9th the northwest.  I disagree though, with the idea that the district is moving rightward.  Toledo itself is losing population, but the rural areas as well as the cities Napoleon, Defiance, Wauseon, and Bowling Green are moving leftward to counteract that.  Some of the rural counties here went 30+ for Bush, and only went for McCain 55-45.  

    District 16 and District 14 make perfect sense.  Love those two districts.  Youngstown in with Canton makes for a very interesting community of interest.  

    Totally agree with your assertion that there won't be a majority black district in OH for much longer.  Eastern Cleveland, compared with the rest of Cleveland metro, is losing population very quickly.  Pretty soon it won't even be possible to draw a majority black district in NE Ohio, even with Akron's black population...many of whom are pissed about being tied at the hip with Cleveland just because of the VRA.  

    Something about Columbus just doesn't quite seem right...but I can't figure out what exactly.  I know when I drew district 15 it stayed entirely within Franklin County, but that's a minor issue.  

    Overall, I think this looks very similar to what we would have if Issue 2 passes.  It's a hell of an improvement over the current map, which needs to go straight to the paper shredder and never seen again.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site