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His biggest lead with Ras in quite some time

I'm not sure what to make of it, because I don't really trust this GOP-leaning firm.

As many have noted, Rasmussen polls seek to create a narrative, and this could be a case of them setting us up for big Romney convention bounce later this week. Not quite sure how they do this. Perhaps they are manipulating their internals to produce a result they want.

Could Ras be catching something that other pollsters aren't? They have been surprisingly bullish (for them) on Obama for the past week, while other polls show a small post-Ryan bounce for Romney.

Nevertheless, I'll take it. Especially after the crappy ABC poll that has Romney up by 1, and a troubling Michigan poll.

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Comment Preferences

  •  The only thing (12+ / 0-)

    "Ras catches that other pollsters don't" is a GOP paycheck.

    The way you ensure a post-convention bounce is to artificially LOWER your polling right before the convention.

    So if you are the GOP and you see a lot of back and forth polls showing a close race nationally, what you really need is one pollster to conduct a number of nationwide and battleground state polls that show your guy behind and then later show him tied/slightly ahead to reflect the awesome awesomeness of his awesome convention speechification!  w00t!

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 07:57:02 AM PDT

  •  That was my first guess (5+ / 0-)

    setting the narrative.  

    It's so pathetic that we have to read polls this way.  

    When the truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

    by Sun dog on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 07:57:12 AM PDT

  •  Anytime Rasmussen comes into the room, I smell (5+ / 0-)

    a rat.  I suspect Rasmussen is intent on increasing the relative size of the GOP convention bump.  The timing is just tooooo

    However, I don't know how that works for anyone who doesn't follow Rasmussen exclusively, unless other pollsters find the same thing at the same time.

    Because stupid people are so sure they're smart, they often act smart, and sometimes even smart people are too stupid to recognize that the stupid people acting smart really ARE stupid.

    by ZedMont on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 07:58:17 AM PDT

  •  Ras is junk. They aren't catching a thing... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    other than the same no-bounce from the Ryan selection. Other pollsters also showed small national movement towards Obama in the last week. Its all noise.

  •  Its so they can claim a convention bounce (10+ / 0-)

    Its so they can say "we have Obama +3 before and Romney +4 after -- a 7 pt bounce"

    The object of persecution is persecution. The object of torture is torture. The object of power is power. --George Orwell

    by jgkojak on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 08:00:52 AM PDT

  •  Jeez - this is going to be a loooong week (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zed, Supavash, Nowhere Man

    Chances are Romney is going to get some sort of bump by the weekend. It'll likely show up in every single national poll. I doubt it will be larger than 3 points or so but it will be enough to instill fear and panic on this site.

    Me, I'll panic if, after the DNC, Romney slim lead holds. Until then, there's a lot of polling noise out there. I'm more interested in what the August jobs report will be - let's hope for another 150,000+ report. That will tell us a lot more about the where the race may go.

    •  I read an article a few weeks ago (0+ / 0-)

      on the jobs reports that claimed that the way these reports deal with summer work artificially reduces the jobs reported in the summer months, and that for this reason the September and October reports would be comparatively strong.  So if we can just get past August with a pretty decent number we should be home free on the jobs report front.

      •  Do tell (0+ / 0-)

        I am hopeful this is the case.

        There are some good signs including better numbers on housing.   We  have hit bottom and begun to climb out on real estate.

        Do you have a link perchance?  I would be eternally grateful and give you recommends for life!  Ha!

  •  Ras in garbage (2+ / 0-)

    Fiddling with their numbers so they can show the HUGE bounce that R&R get from their convention. Don't believe a word from Ras until 6 days before any election.

  •  after being at TPM and seeing those polls (0+ / 0-)

    where romney was ahead. ill take anything.

    of course those polls were a little odd. one had AA going for Obama by 73% . another had no AA at all

    no matter i get upset over them anyway

    "It's never too late to be who you might have been." -George Eliot

    by live1 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 08:05:13 AM PDT

    •  The figures you cited should tell you all you need (0+ / 0-)

      to know about those polls:  AA for Obama 73%, another disclosed no AA at all.  Now, why do you suppose that would be?  Let me think....  Is the President AA?  Is the President garnering a lot of support from AAs?  Hmmm....

      Anyway, pay no attention to national polls.  Focus on the state polls and the electoral college.  

      Chuck Todd tweeted that Koch/Super PAC is pulling out of Pennsylvania.  Romney must win Florida AND Ohio just to have a chance; no two ways about it.

  •  What about ABC poll? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I am worried about that one. It says Romney is narrowly more trusted on Medicare than Obama. It seems O isn't hitting that issue hard enough.

  •  Yep, prepping for convention "bump". nt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
  •  "Prepping for a convention bounce" makes no sense (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    zed, EcosseNJ

    Why? Why not manipulate a small lead for Romney that grows into an even bigger lead?

  •  Don't believe what you like and disbelieve (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    what you don't like.  At this point, polling is a propagandistic tool.  The object is to get their side to vote and keep the Democrats home.  
    Discouraging Democrats or making them over-confident.  That's what they're up to.
    Polling is part of "preparing the ground" for an assault.  And, don't forget, the assault is being waged against the people. Destruction is on the agenda; deception their favorite tool.

    Just like Satan.

    Willard's forte = "catch 'n' cage". He's not into "catch and release."

    by hannah on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 08:24:49 AM PDT

  •  lol bullshit, Rasmussen will have Mittens +10 (4+ / 0-)

    by the weekend. He's that predictable!

    Still, the multiple threads currently up at Free Republic with teabaggers freaking out should be a hoot. I might pop on over later.

    •  They are probably celebrating... (0+ / 0-)

      due to the ABC poll.

    •  ...and pop over I did. (0+ / 0-)

      Freepers are blaming Todd Akin, it's a weekend sampling, and some crap about "Obamagabe" suing Gallup (yes, Gallup, not Rasmussen) for today's Rasmussen poll.

      Nutjobs all.

      Who knows.. One thing all these polls tell us is that Omama never gets to 50%... If he hasn’t cracked 50% yet, he never will ..
      I will worry if he cracks 50% after last debate.. If he doesn’t, rommney will win..
      The important thing is that the incumbent President is still below 50%.
      Business Insider: Though two weekend polls showed mixed results for the president, Barack Obama reached an important mark in both an ABC/Washington Post poll released Sunday night and a CNN poll released Friday. His approval rating hit 50 percent in both of them.

      The 50-percent threshold is generally considered the point at which incumbents are safely re-elected. It’s the first time that Obama has hit the mark in the ABC/Post poll since April…

      …. the 50-percent approval mark is a significant one, as Gallup managing editor Jeffrey M. Jones explained recently:

      The 50% approval mark is significant because post-World War II incumbent presidents who have been above 50% job approval on Election Day were easily re-elected. Presidents with approval ratings below 50% have more uncertain re-election prospects….
      Fronf on the Obama Diary

  •  I was gonna post a diary but Ras is so obvious. (0+ / 0-)

    Setting the sheep up for a big convention bounce.

    He's been doing this shit for over a decade.  I don't know why Nate Silver hasn't been able to bust him.

  •  Two other national polls came out yesterday (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    doroma, PorridgeGun

    both repub leaning, showing Obama tied or +1.

    Zogby/Wash Times had the race 46-46, Romney had previously had a 1 point lead in two previous polls of theirs.

    Tarance Group, and republican pollster, had Obama up 47-46, the same result they got polling in late spring/early summer.

    Both polls were of LVs. Overall I don't think ABC/WAPO's Romney +1 is especially significant.

  •  It is possible to be too cynical (0+ / 0-)

    Rasmooosen warps the polls in terms of the sample population they survey but they don't seem to do anything weird beyond that.  Wouldn't it be even better to show Rmoney up 15 points now and up 20 after the convention?

    You could make anything out to be a conspiracy if you look hard enough and this is just movement within the margin of error anyway, but a convention bounce isn't such a great narrative that they'd want to push it that hard.

    But in the unlikely story that is America, there has never been anything false about hope.

    by thezzyzx on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 08:42:50 AM PDT

  •  STATISTICAL NOISE!!! F*CK YEAH!!!!!!! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The campaign must be heating up  if this makes a diary....

    I can't wait for October. We'll be reporting on yard sign counts....

  •  Don't panic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    More Questions Than Answers

    Look at the battle ground state polling if you must. It will make you feel better, and that is what counts anyway.

    It's all about the Electoral College.  Just ask Al Gore.

    Ras and other GOP "poll experts" are just setting up a big bouncy thing for the convention.

    Next week they will flip it in order to say "Obama gets little to no bounce" after the Democratic convention.

  •  LVs Tend To Flow Toward Republicans...... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Ras will go nuts after the Convention.  I can see it now.  Romney's beautiful story wins over the country.  The country falls in love w/ Ann Romney & that beautiful, beautiful family. I'm talking about that beautiful American family & their rags to riches story.


  •  Yes RAS is Crap (0+ / 0-)

    and they manipulate public perceptions.  My question is: how come Obama isn't ahead by +10 points?  Romeny is a pathological liar and is proposing to lower taxes for the wealthy and raising everyone elses.  I find it hard to believe anyone would vote for such blatant unfairness.

    •  Complacency by the Obama campaign (0+ / 0-)

      particularly on Medicare, and the media fluffing Romney 24/7.

      Oh, and almost every national pollster switching to the likely voter model, which benefits the Republicans. CNN have Obama up 9 pts with registered voters, 2 pts ahead with LV.

  •  THIS IS HYPE (0+ / 0-)

    Look, everyone here knows that Ras is bias to the GOP and as others here have said, this is all smoke to create a bounce in a couple of days, so Romney/Ryan and others can have positive news....

  •  A 3 point Ras = 8 point real (0+ / 0-)

    As a long-term poll watcher who follows trends rather than any given poll, I tend to believe Rasmussen gives the Republican side of its polls a +5 point weight factor consistenly for more than the last decade.  Ergo, Rasmussen is irrelevant and only a step away from Gallup.

    In 1961, I had an accounting professor show up late for class one day.  His excuse was that he was giving responses to a Gallup pollster. He was asked to repeatedly answer the same question from different perspectives; as a professor, student, housewife, laborer, factory worker, etc.

    He said he no problem roleplaying the poll questions, but he also said it made the poll irrelevant for violating random sampling.

    Since that day, I can only trust the trending results of  many, many, polls on a given subject.  

    *Austerity is the opposite of Prosperity*

    by josmndsn on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 09:41:43 AM PDT

  •  This may be how they tweak their results (0+ / 0-)

    In April in Montana, on a day they polled the Tester Rehberg US Senate race, I got a call from Rasmussen on the presidential race but no follow-up on Tester-Rehberg. I told them I'd never vote for Romney or Santorum and was a Independent. A friend who's a Democrats but indicated she was still considering Republican candidates was then connected to the Tester-Rehberg poll.

    To flip it the other way, all you have to do is poll local races first, and then connect your Republican-leaning Democrats and Independents to the Presidential race.

    Voila. No apparent polling bias, but a pre-selected audience that will vote more in accord with your polling needs.

  •  Gallup has Romney up one (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    For what it's worth they have Romney up 47-46 and there is an article saying the one leading prior to the convention wins most of the time.
    They then say it may be different this year. I noticed that Kerry was up 4 over Bush in 2004. So much for that theory but I think Gallup is the most pro Romney pollster out there maybe worse than Rasmussen.

  •  My thoughts (0+ / 0-)

    If Superpacs are pulling out of PA, I think it means the GOP ticket just isn't that competitive in the midwest.  I think the key for PA is that recent polls show Obama tied or in a slight lead among the senior vote.  That's why the superpacs are pulling out.  I don't think seniors in PA are that different from those in Iowa, Ohio or Wisconsin.  The Romney-Ryan voucher program will hurt them badly in the 50-64 and over 65 voter groups in all the battleground states over the next 2 months. I don't believe the GOP ticket can sustain what we're going to throw at them starting Friday.

    As for Ras, he has Obama +3 and he has had a tough time keeping Obama's numbers down over the course of this summer.  The standard Ras move would be to start Romney at a deficit and then give him a big bump 3 days after the convention.  

    A more nuanced view might look like this:  Ras has been publicly shamed for the MO poll and even the Obama camp openly dismissed Ras as a tool of the RNC.  That might have hurt Scott Rasmussen's ego and he might fear losing his reputation, which is what the polling business is all about.  As Marlo Stanfield from The Wire famously said, "My name is my name!" (in response to being called out on the streets.

    Ras might decide to loosen the voter screen a little bit and run counter to what the GOP would like to hear in order to preserve some sense of independence.  

    As for the ABC poll, of the national pollsters, they tend to skew a little conservative.  They haven't polled much this year.  I would need to see the intenals: party breakdown, age demos, etc.  I know the GOP really got into Qunnipiac after their early August polls, because they do impact perception and I think some pollsters are trying to be a bit conservative since this is the GOP convention.  Wait until a few weeks after our convention.

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 10:26:41 AM PDT

  •  very interesting - 2008 - pre GOP convention poll (0+ / 0-)

    I am not a statistics/pollster type person, but Rasmussen seems to weight things for the narrative.

    2008 - right at the begining of the GOP convention.

    They will undoubtedly highlight Mitt's movement next week. (unpleasant thought alert)

  •  Has Ras ever had Obama up this high? (0+ / 0-)

    The means is the ends in the process of becoming. - Mahatma Gandhi

    by HoundDog on Mon Aug 27, 2012 at 11:30:10 AM PDT

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