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This diary looks at the Democrats chances of taking the Arizona State House of Representatives for the first time since the 1966 election. Fortunately for the Democrats, the Republican Party is so poor at competing for the Hispanic vote, it has only two (non-Hispanic) candidates competing in the seven Hispanic VAP Majority Districts. This is a strange type of racial profiling - the Republicans have no qualms about competing for heavily Democratic seats which are not Hispanic majority. To make matters worse - one of the two Republican House candidates competing for a Hispanic majority seat is a known killer.

I did have a look at the Legislative Districts overall and some of the house races in my last two diaries here and here, and Xenocrypt looked at the competitiveness of some key districts here and here, but I wanted to take a closer (albeit still brief) look at the quality of the State House candidates and the historical successes of running a single candidate in a competitive district.  

Which Legislative Districts Are We Targeting ?
The final list of candidates for the primary election on Wednesday 29 August 2012 is available on the SOS website.

The table below has the number of Democrats and Republicans running for the 60 seats in the 30 Legislative Districts. Those seats marked with a # are Hispanic VAP majority. Those seats that have a "Yes" in the "RTW" (Race To Watch) column have an in depth summary below the fold.  

As you can see from the table, with all the Democratic leaning voters now compressed into the top 16 or 17 LDs, the Democrats don't really bother competing for the more Republican seats. And for the 12 most Democratic districts, there are 7 Hispanic seats that the Republicans are only fielding 2 (non-Hispanic) candidates, but they are fielding 8 Republican candidates in the 5 Non-Hispanic majority Democratic seats.

Arizona State House - Primary Candidates & Race Ratings

LD Region House Ds House Rs House Race Ratings Rank RTW
27 Greater Phoenix # 3 Ds (2Is) 1 R Certain D / Certain D 1 Yes
3 Greater Tucson # 2 Ds (2I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 2 No
7 Rural-Navajo Nation 3 Ds (1I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 3 No
19 Greater Phoenix # 4 Ds (0I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 4 No
24 Greater Phoenix 4 Ds (2Is) 1 R Certain D / Safe D 5 Yes
29 Greater Phoenix # 3 Ds (1I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 6 No
26 Greater Phoenix 2 Ds (0Is) 4 Rs Likely D / Likely D 7 Yes
30 Greater Phoenix # 3 Ds (1I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 8 No
2 Greater Tucson # 2 Ds (0I) 1 R Certain D / Likely D 9 No
4 Greater Tucson/Yuma # 3 Ds (0I) 0 Rs Certain D / Certain D 10 No
9 Greater Tucson 3 Ds (0I) 1 R Certain D / Likely D 11 Yes
10 Greater Tucson 3 Ds (1I) 2 Rs (1I) Likely D / Likely D 12 Yes
8 Rural-Pinal 3 Ds (0I) 2 Rs (1I) Lean D / Lean D 13 Yes
18 Greater Phoenix 2 Ds (0I) 2 Rs (2I) Tilt D / Tilt R 14 Yes
6 Rural-Flagstaff 2 Ds (0I) 2 Rs (1I) Tilt D / Tilt D 15 Yes
28 Greater Phoenix 1 D (1I) 2 Rs (2I) Certain R / Likely D 16 Yes
20 Greater Phoenix 2 Ds (0I) 3 Rs (1I) Likely R / Lean D 17 Yes
21 Greater Phoenix 2 Ds 2 Rs (2I) Likely R / Likely R 18 Yes
17 Greater Phoenix 1 D 2 Rs (2I) Certain R / Lean R 19 No
11 Rural-North of Tucson 1 D 2 Rs Certain R / Likely R 20 No
14 Rural-East of Tucson/Cochise 2 Ds 2 Rs (2I) Likely R / Likely R 21 No
16 East Mesa/Apache Junction 1 D 4 Rs Certain R / Safe R 22 No
15 North Phoenix / Cave Creek 1 D 4 Rs (2I) Certain R / Safe R 23 No
23 Scottsdale 0 D 3 Rs (2I) Certain R / Certain R 24 No
22 North Peoria/Sun City West 0 D 3 Rs (1I) Certain R / Certain R 25 No
25 Mesa 1 D 2 Rs (2I) Certain R / Safe R 26 No
13 Yuma/Buckeye 0 D 4 Rs (2I) Certain R / Certain R 27 No
5 Mohave County 1 D 4 Rs (1I) Certain R / Safe R 28 No
12 Gilbert/Queens Creek 0 D 3 Rs (1I) Certain R / Certain R 29 No
1 Prescott/Yavapai County 0 D 3 Rs (2I) Certain R / Certain R 30 No
Note: In both the 1st & 11th LDs there is an incumbent Republican State Senator also running.

The Republican House Members
There are 40 Republican House incumbents, but only 27 are running. There are 4 who are term limited (James Weiers, Jerry Weiers, Nancy McLain) and 2 running for State Senate (John Fillmore in the 16th, Kimberley Yee in the 28th).

There are also 7 House Reps who are not running. There are the two redistricting vitctims from the old 26th LD who don't dare run in the new 9th LD: Terri Proud (going to work for Jerry Weiers campaign for Glendale Mayor) and Vic Williams (running for Pima County Supervisor). There are the two redistricting vitctims from the old West Mesa 18th LD which was split in two, but who don't dare run in the new East Mesa 25th LD or the blue 26th LD: Cecil Ash (running for North Mesa JP) and House Majority Leader Steve Court who is not going to run again. Basically, both have admitted defeat at taking on the East Mesa Republican incumbents Olsen and Pierce who are now running unopposed.

Steve Urie of the current 22nd (running for JP), Jack Harper is probably another redistricting victim, given that the 1st LD has two House incumbents and a State Senator already running (finding a real job - check out www.crazyjackharper.com for a good laugh and Peggy Judd of the current 25th is another redistrcting victim (running for Cochise County rather than add another incumbent to the 30th LD primary).

Arizona State House of Representatives Predictions
At this stage I am predicting that the Republicans and Democrats make no major stuff ups, and end up with a narrow Democratic win, but at the moment the Race Ratings show a very narrow Democratic edge:

Certain D: 16                                 Certain R: 17
Safe D: 2                                      Safe R: 4
Likely D: 7                                     Likely R: 6
Lean D: 3                                      Lean R: 1
Tilt D: 3                                        Tilt R: 1

Total D: 31 Seats                           Total R: 29 Seats

Given the large amount of seats in the Certain/Safe category, the battle for the Arizona State House will occur in comparatively few seats. I have rated two seats Tilt D for LD-06 & one Tilt D and one Tilt R for LD-18. However both LDs are good chances for the Democrats to take the House, and they will clearly need both seats in each to really have a chance (and vice versa for the Republicans).

As per the State Senate, LD-06, LD-08 and LD-18 are the key for leveling the House. The Dems need to try to win both seats in each to make a strong play for the State House. For competitive seats - the single shot method can get a high profile candidate to win one seat in an LD, even as the seat elects a State Senator of the opposing party. This technique however only works in fairly competitive seats, and at this stage the technique will be deployed to great effect in LD-28, and could potentially be used in other LDs, post primary if the numbers make a two seat win unlikely - LD18, LD20, and LD21.

How Strong Are Our Candidates ?
As a general comment on the Democratic House candidates, we are of course the victims of our own success in having a fair redistricting process. A lot of our high powered house representatives are running for higher office. We essentially have 20 out of the 60 House seats at present (including one Independent for now). However only 13 of the 20 incumbents are even available to run due to the need to make a play for the State Senate and US House. Many quality incumbents are therefore unavailable for the House elections.

Currently we have all 18 House members in the 9 Legislative Districts held by Democrats State Senators, as well as two lone House Members (Dr Eric Meyer and Lynne Pancrazi) in LDs which otherwise have a Republican State Senator and one Republican State House Representative.

History of Control of the House of Representatives
The Republicans have held the Arizona State House of Representatives for a long time, whereas by comparison, even in modern times, the Democrats have held or tied the State Senate. The Dems tied the State Senate in the 2000 Election, won it for a single term in the 1990 Election, and only lost the Senate narrowly in the first place in 1978, whereas the Republicans have held onto the House since they first took it in the 1966 election.  Historically pre-1964 Arizona, saw conservative rural based "Pinto Democrats" controlled the State Senate, due to the arcane rules that saw two State Senators elected from each county regardless of population. The House was largely controlled by the Republicans as only one House member was automatically allocated to each county then the rest by population allowing suburban Maricopa County Republicans to have great influence. So a shake up of the electoral system saw the Republicans take control of the House, so will the new shake up end up costing them the House ? Certainly they seem to think so... Whilst independent redistricting is not new, the Democrats have always gotten a raw deal until the latest round.

Relevant Electoral Details
When considering the upcoming elections, just remember:
- A 1998 Ballot Initiative allows Independents to vote in the party primaries.
- Write In Candidates can still make the ballot in July.
- All Legislators can only serve four consecutive terms (or eight years) in each house.
- Legislators are eligible to run again after a 2 year gap.
- 5 House Republicans are Term Limited, (but no Democrats are this year).

Redistricting Details
- There are 30 Legislative Districts (LDs) in the State.
- The LDs are redistricted after each US Census by the Independent Redistricting Commission, in accordance with proposition 106.
- Each LD is a multi-member constituency, electing a Senator and 2 Representatives for a two-year term.

Single Shot Voting
Single shot voting is where in a district favoring one party, the opposite party only fields one candidate in the seat. This technique has been successfully employed by Eric Meyer in the current 11th LD, and hopefully the 28th LD. See diary by Xenocrypt for an explanation on how the 28th LD works. I will leave it to Eric to explain how the single shot voting works:

Every voter has the ability to cast two votes for their representatives at the State House.  However, if you use both of your votes, you might end up canceling out your first vote.  My race is a perfect example of how using a single vote can make a greater impact.  Both of my opponents have values that are very different from mine.  They intend to make deeper cuts to education funding and continue to steer our state down the same, irresponsible path.  A vote for either of them is a vote against me and the values that we share.  If I am one vote behind one of them and you cast your vote for me, we tie. If you cast one vote for me and your second vote for my opponent, I lose, and you have elected someone you may not support. Casting only one vote, for the candidate who supports your values, makes your single vote more impactful.
So basically you encourage all Democrats and left leaning Independents to vote "single shot" and then hopefully pick up a few extra votes from moderate Republicans who in this seat probably vote for the moderate incumbent Adam Driggs and one of the two Republican House candidates, the also moderate Kate Brophy-McPhee (the other Republican is very conservative).

OVERALL FINDINGS
So it seems the Democrats have a narrow but strong chance to take the State House.

2012 Arizona Legislative Districts Map

2004-2010 Arizona Legislative Districts Map

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Certain Dems and Very Safe Dems
So for the 10 most Democratic leaning seats, we have 6 Districts, that are certain to provide 2 Democrats each, with no Republican competition - a start of 12 Democratic House Representatives. These seats are the Navajo Nation based 7th LD, the Greater Phoenix based 19th, 29th and 30th LDs, and the Greater Tuscon based 3rd and 4th LDs.

A further three seats have only 1 Republican challenger - providing another 3 Democratic House Representatives (For a total of 15 House Reps so far). These are the Greater Phoenix based 27th and 24th LDs and the Greater Tucson based 2nd LD. These are the 1st, 5th and 9th most Democratic seats in the House. Given Daniel Coleman for the 27th LD is a known killer, and the seat is the most Democratic, that is another Certain Dem seat. The candidate for the 24th LD is Brian Kaufman, a young conservative go getter from the Republican end of the district that obviously has his eye on bigger things down the road - wont come close to winning though. The candidate for the Tucson based 2nd LD is Chris Ackerley, a seemingly not particularly offensive limited government candidate. Cant see him coming close to winning though - but enough to force a Likely Dem rating.

We now have a total of 18 candidates, out of 31 needed. So what of the last of the 10 Democratic LDs ? It is the 26th LD, the 7th most Democratic seat in the house, and the site of a Republican Battle Royale with 4 candidates vying for the Republican primary nomination, as well as a Libertarian and a Green candidate with two Democrats. There are only 2 LDs each where a Libertarian or a Green is being fielded.

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RACE TO WATCH: 27th Legislative District (Central Phoenix) - Battling a Killer
Partisan Breakdown : 72.6% D Ave / 27.4% R Ave (Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (24.3%), Hispanic (52.1%), African American (15.1%), Native American (3.7%) (Most African American LD).
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (43.3%)
Party Registration: 47.8% D, 14.6% R, 37.6% Other.
Components (LDs):  16th (89.0%), 14th (5.1%), 17th (3.8%), Others (2.1%)
Components (Places): Phoenix (89.89%), Other (10.11%),

The 27th
This LD is basically the old 16th LD, which is Central Phoenix, and is the safest seat for the Dems. While the LD is the most African American in the state, it is still a very Hispanic seat. As you can see from the map below, the 27th is very Hispanic, with no African American majority precincts, and only one that comes close. The grey areas are those where there is no clear majority, and are generally Hispanic and Black. The red areas are White majority, and the yellow areas are Native American (in this case the Gila River Community).
Photobucket

Interesting Race Factors
Why is this a Race to Watch when it is the most Democratic LD in the State ? Well firstly this area is traditionally represented by African Americans in Council or the Legislature, but who have been subjected to strong Hispanic challenges in the Dem primary. The incumbent State Senator and Phoenix City Councillor are both African American. The current House incumbents, however are both Hispanic. They won their first elections to the house in 2010, defeating African American incumbent Cloves Campbell Jr in the process. Secondly, the Republican candidate is a narcissistic killer...

27th Primary Election Participants

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Ruben Gallego Democratic Incumbent 16th LD House Rep Iraq Veteran/Hispanic Businessman/Democrat Official, Gallego effectively unseated African American incumbent Cloves Campbell Jr in 2010.
Catherine Miranda Democratic Incumbent 16th LD House Rep Teacher, and wife of the immediate former representative Ben Miranda, who was term limited and retired rather than run for State Senate.
Reginald Bolding Democratic None Teacher, and the African American Challenger, endorsed by Phoenix Vice Mayor Michael Johnson (also African American) who holds the Phoenix City Council seat for the area.
Ángel Torres Green Losing 2010 Candidate He is actually a real Green candidate (Arizona Green Party Co-Chair) unlike other candidates in the past who have been Republican funded plants. This party gaining ballot access can have an impact, but not here.
Daniel Coleman Republican None - Ran in 2006 An unrepentant self centered killer, whose claim to fame (not mentioned on his website) is that he killed his then girlfriend's unarmed sister. He hates the way government is run... but wants to add one more Republican from a safe Dem district. Fuck him. Open question: Wouldn't the Republican Party want to avoid running someone here to theoretically lower turnout (for higher races) ? I have to think this guy really is running without the blessing of the hierarchy. One of just two Republican house candidates running in the seven Hispanic seats.
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RACE TO WATCH: 24th Legislative District (Central Phoenix)
Partisan Breakdown : 72.6% D Ave / 27.4% R Ave (5th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (52.4%), Hispanic (34.1%), African American (6.3%), Native American (3.1%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (22.8%)
Party Registration: 39.1% D, 24.8% R, 36.1% Other.
Components (LDs):  15th (54.5%), 17th (16.8%), 11th (15.4%), 14th (12.5%)
Components (Places): Phoenix (82.43%), Scottsdale (17.57%),

Interesting Race Factors
This LD is a Race to Watch for a few reasons, firstly, it is a Democratic District with a Republican candidate... Secondly

24th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Chad Campbell Democratic (D-Inc) (14th) (House Minority Leader) Running on a ticket with State Senate candidate Katie Hobbs and House candidate Lela Alston. Cranky with Cheuvront.
Lela Alston Democratic (D-Inc) (15th) Veteran legislator. Running on a ticket with State Senate candidate Katie Hobbs and House candidate Chad Campbell
Jean Cheuvront-McDermott Democratic None. Mother of Ken Cheuvront Running on a ticket with her son, openly gay former legislator Ken Cheuvront. There is a Democratic challenge to her being on the ballot.
Tom Nerini Democratic None ? Not sure what this candidate stands for
Brian Kaufman Republican None. Keen young Republican official. From the Scottsdale end of the district.
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RACE TO WATCH: 26th LD (North Tempe/West Mesa) - Battle Royale
Partisan: 58% D Ave / 42% R Ave (7th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (52.3%), Hispanic (32.0%), African American (5.1%), Native American (4.3%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (18.7%)
Party Registration: 33.0% D, 25.9% R, 41.1% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  17th (52.3%), 18th (36.1%), 21st (5.6%), 16th (3.3%), 23rd (2.7%)
Components (Places): Tempe (52.30%), Mesa (41.67%), Phoenix (3.34%), Salt River Community (2.70%)
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier

(Crude) Map of 26th Legislative District (Partisan Data)
The new 26th removes the light blue/purple areas of western Mesa and adds them to the blue northern half of Tempe. This makes the new 26th LD slightly more Democratic than the old 17th LD. However it also makes the new central Mesa based 25th LD strongly Republican (the red area to the east) and gives recalled former Senator Russell Pearce a much better seat to run in.
Photobucket
(Red lines show the borders between places)

(Crude) Map of 26th Legislative District Components (Old LDs)
This LD takes the southern part (Tempe section) of the old 17th (David Schapira's seat) and merges it with the western part of the old 18th (Jerry Lewis's seat) - those areas that presumably helped vote out Russel Pearce in the open Recall election, as well as a sparsely populated portion of the old 23rd (the Salt River Indian Community). This is essentially half of David Schapira's old seat with a third of Jerry Lewis's old seat.
Photobucket
(Red lines show the borders between places)

Interesting Race Factors
Despite the numeric advantage to Tempe, only 1 Democrat, 1 Republican and the Green are Tempe based, the rest of the field (5) are Mesa based. This LD is a Race to Watch for a few reasons, firstly, it is the most Democratic District with a competitive Republican primary... As you can see from Table 1, it is all the way back to the 17th LD to find more than 2 Republican candidates for a LD although they are not doing well. Secondly this is the only seat to be contested by both a Libertarian and a Green, both of whom seem to be legitimate candidates rather than spoilers. Only two Greens and two Libertarians are running overall ! Thirdly it is the most Democratic seat with a top tier Republican candidate for the State Senate (Jerry Lewis) who has the potential to improve the Republican vote.

26th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Juan Mendez Democratic None. Tempe based Democratic Party Official, Community Leader
Andrew Sherwood Democratic None. Defeated 2010 candidate. Mesa based.
Haryaksha Gregor Knauer Green Tempe based.
Chris Will Libertarian None. Losing 2010 Election candidate. Mesa based writer/teacher and mother. Ran for the old 18th LD last time and garnered 3,452 votes in the ultra conservative Mormon LD (where Russell Pearce was recalled from). Seems like a genuine candidate rather than a spoiler.
Mary-Lou Taylor Republican Tempe Union High School District Board The lone Tempe based Republican which may stand her in good stead in the primary.
Buckley Merrill Republican Mesa based Ayn Rand quoting nutjob.
Raymond D. Speakman Republican Mesa based.
Jason Youn Republican None Mesa based Author & photographer
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RACE TO WATCH: 9th LD (Tucson) - This District is Why Republicans Hate Colleen Mathis
Partisan: 53.3% D Ave / 46.7% R Ave (11th Most Democratic LD)
                                      54% Obama / 45% McCain
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (73.0%), Hispanic (18.3%), African American (2.5%), Native American (0.9%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (14.1%)
Party Registration: 37.0% D, 33.2% R, 29.9% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  26th (52.2%), 28th (34.1%), 30th (13.6%)
Components (Places): Tucson (36.91%), Casas Adobes (30.83%), Catalina Foothills (24.50%), Flowing Wells (7.28%)
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier

(Crude) Map of 9th and 10th Legislative District (Partisan Data)
The 9th LD should perform strongly for the Dems in 2012 - it is around 54% Obama, which should improve without the McCain home state effect. The LD is centred around three main neighbourhoods - bright blue Tucson Midtown, then the suburbs - purplish Flowing Wells and Catalina Foothills and then the outer suburbs purplish Catalina Foothills and the fairly red Casas Adobes.
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(Crude) Map of 9th and 10 Legislative District Components (Old LDs)
The 9th LD has as its largest predecessor the current 26th LD, which makes up half the district, consisting of the suburban areas Casas Adobes, Flowing Wells and Catalina Foothills. A third of the 9th LD is the Tucson Midtown area from the current 28th LD. A small amount of the current 30th LD is included also which is the very red eastern section of the Catalina Foothills. So basically the Commission added the very blue Tucson Midtown to the competitive parts of the 26th LD to create a seat that is designed for reasonable moderate Democrats.
Photobucket

Interesting Race Factors
This LD is a Race to Watch for a few reasons, firstly, it is one of the 4 white non-hispanic majority Democratic Districts, which means the Republicans are actually contesting it. Secondly, neither of the incumbent 26th LD Republicans are running again, with both effectively becoming redistricting victims. There are also no 28th LD Democrats running here (although one incumbent, Steve Farley is running for the State Senate Seat instead). Instead there are 4 new candidates who are contesting this district. There are 3 Democrats, who have tried and failed to win the nomination previously and now are back with a very good chance. There is one Republican who seems to be a reasonable some dude candidate (I guess many candidates are at this level) and might have done okay in a non-presidential year.

There seems to be a big difference between the 9th and the 10th, in that the 10th has two establishment back Republican candidates (incl. one incumbent), whereas the 9th has just one some dude. Both the Republican 26th LD incumbents are not running again, despite being eligible to do so. Terri Proud clearly thinks she can't win here, as she is going to work on Jerry Weiers campaign for Mayor of Glendale. The other incumbent Vic Williams is instead running for Pima County Board of Supervisors. So a big redistricting win here for the Democrats. Two right wing republican gone (out of 6 overall who were eligible to run again).

9th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Dustin Cox Democratic None. Losing 2010 Dem Primary Candidate Community Leader/Non-Profit Exec, backed by old 26th LD candidate Cheryl Cage. Cox got third place in the 8 way primary for the old 27th LD - which has no overlap with the new 9th...
Victoria Steele Democratic None Self proclaimed Moderate Democrat (her positions are typical Democrat)/Former TV & Radio News Broadcaster/Counselor
Mohur Sarah Sidhwa Democratic None. Losing 2010 Dem Primary Candidate. Democrat Organizer/Volunteer & Party Official. She got a strong third place in the 5 way 2010 primary for the old 28th LD.
Ethan Orr Republican None Tucson based (Small Businessman/Non-Profit Exec/Master in Public Admin)
Democratic Primary - Three candidates, two of whom made impressive 3rd place
                             showings in 2010.
Republican Primary  - Nothing to see here. One Candidate.
General Election     - This appears to just be a long shot for the Republicans, with  
                             Orr's website showing no Republican establishment backing or
                             any real political experience.
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RACE TO WATCH: 10th LD (Tucson) - A Redistricting Opportunity
Partisan: 52.0% D Ave / 48.0% R Ave (12th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (70.5%), Hispanic (19.5%), African American (4.3%), Native American (0.8%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (15.9%)
Party Registration: 37.0% D, 33.5% R, 29.5% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  28th (44.2%), 29th (30.0%), 30th (25.8%)
Components (Places): Tucson (91.25%), Tanque Verde (8.25%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier

10th LD (Partisan Breakdown)
The 10th LD should perform strongly for the Dems in 2012 - it is around 52% Obama, which should improve without the McCain home state effect. The LD is centred around bright blue Tucson and deep red Tanque Verde. See Map above.

10th LD (Component Places)
This district is a newly manufactured LD that consists of the old 28th LD (44.3%), 29th LD (30.0%) both Tucson, and the old 30th LD (25.8%) area around Tanque Verde. See Map above.

Interesting Race Factors
This LD is a Race to Watch for a few reasons, firstly, it is one of the 4 white non-hispanic majority Democratic Districts, which means the Republicans are actually contesting it.

Secondly, redistricting has dismantled the Republican 30th LD, with the open but Democratic leaning 10th LD the Republican refugees best bet for a seat. As well as the hapless Frank Antoneri (30th LD incumbent) applying for the State Senate seat, incumbent House Member Ted Vogt is trying for the House. The other 30th LD House Incumbent, David Gowan is trying for the 14th LD instead.

While this seat is predominantly the current 28th LD, it also has a large share of the 29th LD, so there are theoretically 4 Dem incumbents who could run here, but only one is available. 28th LD Rep, Steve Farley is running for the State Senate in the 9th LD, while Matt Heinz is running for the 2nd Congressional District, and Controversial Dem Daniel Patterson was forced to quit the Legislature. That just leaves Bruce Wheeler, who is contesting the primary with two other candidates. It seems extremely likely that Wheeler and another Dem will win the general here, given the conservative nature of the Republicans.

10th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Bruce Wheeler Democratic Incumbent (28th LD-which is 45% of the 10th LD) Tucson based former photojournalist, profile here/MBA)
Brandon Patrick Democratic Iraq/Afghan Airforce Veteran, Aide/intern to Dems, Helped defeat "well intentioned" 2009 Prop 200
Stefanie Mach Democratic Volunteer/Consultant to Non-Profit/Masters Public Policy
Ted Vogt Republican 30th LD Incumbent Freshman Rep of the current 30th LD. Air Force Veteran/Law School Grad-Tort Reform Advocate/Former Rumsfeld Asst)
Todd A. Clodfelter Republican Tucson based. Current 30th LD Republican Chair.
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RACE TO WATCH: 8th LD (Pinal County) - Winning Back a Historically Democratic Seat in Babeau Country
Partisan: 48.7% D Ave / 51.3% R Ave (13th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics: Non-Hisp White (53.4%), Hispanic (31.3%), African American (4.6%), Native American (7.1%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (30.5%)
Party Registration: 38.0% D, 28.5% R, 33.4% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  23rd (91.1%), 5th (8.9%)
Components (Places): Pinal County (90.57%), Gila County (9.43%)
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier

Further District Details
This is a competitive LD, that elected many prominent Democrats including the last Democratic State Senate President, Peter Rios (who was the first Hispanic State Senate President) that will be the subject of another diary. Hence I will skip directly to the House Primary Candidates, although please note that it is one of just two districts in traditionally fairly Libertarian Arizona, to have a Libertarian candidate (there may be write in Libertarians however).

8th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Ernest Bustamante Democratic (former Inc) (23rd) (Regular Candidate)
Mammoth based.
George Arredondo Democratic form. Coolidge City Councillor, 1st time Leg. candidate Coolidge based Iraq/Afghan veteran
Emily Verdugo Democratic Coolidge City Council Candidate Coolidge based.
Dean Dill Libertarian None ? Casa Grande based candidate. He seems fairly reasonable from what little can be found about him..
Frank Pratt Republican (R-Inc) (23rd) Casa Grande based Sophomore Representative who first won in 2008. Pratt seems to be a mainstream establishment Republican and is listed by Pachyderm as a "Republican" (27th/40 in 2012), (24th/40 in 2011), (28th/35 in 2010) and (18th/35 in 2009).
Thomas "T.J." Shope Republican Not Much. Elected to school board Coolidge based candidate, son of long time Coolidge Mayor Thomas Shope. Backed by fellow Republican candidate Frank Pratt as well as Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu.
Race Predictions

Democratic Primary - Three candidates.
Republican Primary - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, one incumbent.
General Election - This is going to be one of the defining battles for the Arizona House.

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RACE TO WATCH: 18th LD (Ahwatukee & South Tempe) - Winning A House Seat
Partisan: 48.7% D Ave / 51.3% R Ave (14th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (73.4%), Hispanic (12.7%), African American (4.4%), Native American (1.3%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (11.1%)
Party Registration: 29.3% D, 36.9% R, 33.8% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  20th (71.2%), 21st (15.1%), 17th (13.7%)
Components (Places): Phoenix-Ahwatukee (34.43 %), Chandler (26.04%), Tempe (25.56%), Mesa (13.69%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Strong Mid-Tier

Further District Details
This is a competitive suburban LD, that generally elects Republicans and was the subject of an excellent diary by Xenocrypt. Here I will skip straight to the candidates and the electoral history.

Interesting Race Factors
The 20th LD was another area where the Single Shot Theory worked with Ahwatukee based Rae Waters (Former Inc) (20th LD) winning the 2008 election to the house, being narrowly elected with now State Senator John McComish. In the 2010 wipeout, Waters was again the lone candidate, but was narrowly defeated by the current incumbents. These days Waters has chosen to run for various school district boards, rather than try again for the House. Unfortunately she is a foot soldier for Andrei Cherny, agreeing to Co-Chair his campaign. This is a reasonable coup for him she is the only successful Democrat in Ahwatukee in the recent past (the 18th LD forming the southern portion of AZ-09).

18th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Corey Harris Democratic None. First time candidate. Political Science Grad. Phoenix - Ahwatukee born and based. Lieutenant in Army Reserves, highly decorated Iraq Veteran, Veteran Outreach Coordinator for former Tempe Mayor/Congressman Harry Mitchell. (Note: Website is very single issue and doesn't reveal much other than lots of military related topics)
Darin Fisher Democratic None. First time candidate. Phoenix based. (Note: his site is under construction, but he is on twitter)
Bob Robson Republican R-Inc (20th), Freshman Chandler based Insurance Agent, veteran House Rep. Termed out in 2008, but returned after the necessary two year gap to replace McComish. Robson seems to be a more moderate Republican and is listed by Pachyderm as a "Republican" (30th/40 in 2012) and (34th/40 in 2011).
Jeff Dial Republican (R-Inc) (20th), Freeshman Rep who won in 2010 on third attempt, losing to Waters in 2008 in the general and to McComish in 2006 in the primary. Chandler based chemical company executive. Dial is a fairly conservative and is listed by Pachyderm as a "Pro-Freedom Republican" (23rd/40 in 2012) and (30th/40 in 2011).
Race Predictions

Democratic Primary - Nothing to see here. Two Candidates only.
Republican Primary  - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, both incumbents.
General Election     - Key Race. At this stage I have think it could be one seat each -
                             Moderate Robson got less votes than Tea bagger Dial in 2010.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RACE TO WATCH: 6th LD (Flagstaff & Greater Sedona) - Bell-weather Seats
Partisan: 45.3% D Ave / 54.7% R Ave (15th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (78.2%), Hispanic (12.5%), African American (1.0%), Native American (6.1%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (8.0%)
Party Registration: 29.0% D, 37.8% R, 33.1% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  1st (43.7%), 2nd (31.1%), 5th (25.5%)
Components (Places): Coconino County-Flagstaff (30.78%), Coconino County-Rural (14.22%), Yavapai County (29.82%), Gila County (13.68%), Navajo County (11.53%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier

Further District Details
This is a completely new Rural District, which aligns fairly well with the new Arizona 1st Congressional District. It will hopefully be the subject of a new diary by Xenocrypt, if he can resolve some technical issues.

Much like the marquee State Senate race between Tom Chabin and Chester Crandell, there is a pretty big difference between the House Candidates. On one hand you have Doug Ballard and Angela LeFevre who are well meaning political newcomers who are up against rabid nutjob Brenda Barton who moved to overcome redistricting and far right winger Bob Thorpe. Ballard and LeFevre will have a tough race on their hands given the even balance of the district and neither of them touts any closeness with Ann Kirkpatrick as of yet.

6th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Doug Ballard Democratic None. Long time involvement in local government Parks based (small town to west of Flagstaff) Coconino County Dem Party Chair/Retired former Chandler City Official
Angela LeFevre Democratic None. Longtime involvement in politics Sedona based, British born Democratic Party official who heads Flagstaff Dems/Former Exec
Brenda Barton Republican (R-Inc) (5th)
Previously based in Safford, Graham County, but moved to Payson, Gilla County... no doubt to be able to run in the new seat. A far right winger endorsed by Arpaio, NRA and every other right winger in AZ
Bob Thorpe Republican None. "Citizen Candidate" Flagstaff based. Claims to be a Constitutional Author/Co-founder of Balanced Budget Amendment Taskforce, and is an active volunteer
Race Predictions

Democratic Primary - Nothing to see here. Two candidates only.
Republican Primary -Nothing to see here. Two candidates only (incl. one incumbent).
General Election - This is going to be one of the defining battles for the Arizona House.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RACE TO WATCH: 28th LD (Paradise Valley) - Winning  a Bellweather Seat
Partisan: 45.2% D Ave / 54.8% R Ave (16th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (74.5%), Hispanic (17.7%), African American (2.6%), Native American (1.3%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (8.9%)
Party Registration: 29.2% D, 40.3% R, 30.5% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  11th (59.3%), 10th (19.9%), 7th (17.8%), 6th (3.0%)
Components (Places): Phoenix (93.96%), Paradise Valley (5.85%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: New Candidate

Further District Details
This is a competitive suburban LD, that generally elects Republicans and was the subject of an excellent diary by Xenocrypt. Here I will skip straight to the other race factors, such as the "One Shot Theory", the candidates and the electoral history.

Interesting Race Factors
As you can see from the section above, incumbent Democrat, Eric Meyer is a strong proponent of the single shot voting strategy. The field of candidates here is essentially the perfect outcome for him - he has one moderate, wealthy self funding Republican in Kate Brophy-McPhee and a comparatively moderate Republican State Senator in Adam Driggs... and a very conservative Republican challenger in Amanda Reeve.  Reeve is a redistricting victim, being from the old 6th LD which contributes only 3% of the VAP for the new district!. So Meyer will be appealing to Democrats and left leaning independents to vote "Single Shot", whilst appealing to Moderate Republicans/Independents who will vote for Brophy-McPhee to also vote for him over Reeve.

28th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Dr Eric Meyer Democratic (D-Inc) (11th) (2 term representative) Former Director Emergency Dept/Education & Children Advocate
Kate Brophy-McGee Republican (R-Inc) (11th) Moderate pro-choice freshman rep, the biggest indivdual campaign contributor in 2010 elections, appointed to school boards by both Napolitano & Republicans)
Amanda Reeve Republican (R-Inc) (6th)
Race Predictions

Democratic  Primary - Just one candidate, incumbent Eric Meyer, obviously we need to
                              watch how many votes he gets relative to the Republicans.
Republican Primary   - Two candidates, both incumbents, but Brophy-McPhee likely to
                              crush Reeve, due to electability, wealth, and locational
                               advantages.
General Election       - Eric Meyer (D) and Kate Brophy McPhee (R) to win with
                               reasonable margins.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RACE TO WATCH: 20th LD (North Phoenix/Glendale) - Winning  a Stretch Target
Partisan: 43.4% D Ave / 56.7% R Ave (17th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (72.5%), Hispanic (17.7%), African American (3.6%), Native American (1.3%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (13.0%)
Party Registration: 28.8% D, 36.8% R, 34.4% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  10th (42.5%), 6th (34.3%), 9th (16.7%), 7th (6.5%)
Components (Places): Phoenix (72.11%), Glendale (27.89%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: ? Michael Powell ?

(Crude) Map of 20th and 21st LD (Partisan Data)
Photobucket

(Crude) Map of 20th and 21st LD Components (Old LDs)
The northern part of Greater Phoenix was greatly affected by redistricting. The creation of the new Hispanic Western Phoenix 19th LD, required the current northern 6th LD to be dismantled and the various pieces incorporated in the adjoining Republican seats. The 20th is basically the old 10th LD, shifted north and west to include parts of the defunct 6th and old 9th LD.
Photobucket

Interesting Race Factors
This is one of the most interesting Races to Watch, despite being only on the fringes of the competitive zone. Of the 15 most Republican LDs, this is one of just two that has a top tier Democratic contender, in former 10th LD House Rep. Jackie Thrasher. Thrasher is a serial candidate who constantly performed strongly above the average Dem vote, and was able to win a single term in the house over

The ousted Republican then incumbent, Doug Quelland was the Republican that Thrasher defeated in the her successful 2006 campaign. The now independent Doug Quelland later won re-election in 2008 but was found guilty of misusing Arizona's campaign financing system, and removed from office and replaced by Kimberley Yee, who is more favoured by the Republican Party). Quelland is supposedly running for the seat, but is not currently listed, but is presumably going to run a write-in campaign (although his website hints at the State Senate). Quelland lost the 2010 Republican Primary to James Weiers and Kimberly Yee.

The reason that Thrasher lost the seat in 2008, is often blamed on the fake Greenscandidate Margarite Dale, who was a registered Republican and was funded by the two Republican candidates in the race.

Neither of the two Republican incumbents will be running, with James Weiers being Term Limited out of the House (after being term limited out of the State Senate previously). Kimberley Yee will run for the State Senate seat after a single term, due to incumbent State Senator Linda Grey being term limited. This has created an open seat situation for the Republicans, although a redistricting refugee will run here, effectively becoming an incumbent despite representing only a third of the seat.

20th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Jackie Thrasher Democratic (D-Former Inc) (10th) Unusually strong Dem challenger (see below table for electoral history). Glendale based retired teacher, endorsed by Chad Campbell (Minority Leader), Steve Farley (Asst. Minority Leader), Ruben Gallego, Lyn Pancrazi and Tom Chabin (House Representatives).
Tonya Norwood Democratic None Phoenix based High flying director of several community organizations
Carl Seel Republican (R-Inc) (6th) Phoenix based. Most Ultra Conservative Republican in the House, and an infamous Birther / Arpaio fan. With his old 6th LD obliterated, Seel now has to seek sanctuary in a far more moderate district. Seel is listed by Pachyderm as a "Reagan Republican" (1st/40 in 2012), (14th/40 in 2011),(1st/40 in 2010), (6th/35 in 2009).
George H. Benavides Sr Republican None. Glendale based businessman of the Republican Establishment Wing. he has held several county roles)
Paul Boyer Republican None. Phoenix based Republican Legislature Stooge/Very Conservative

20th (Current 10th LD) General Election History

Year Name Party Status Votes
2010 Jackie Thrasher Democratic Lost 14,770
2010 Aaron Jahneke Democratic Lost 12,226
2010 James Weiers (Inc) Republican Won 18,237
2010 Kimberley Yee Republican Lost 19,485
2008 Jackie Thrasher (Inc) Democratic Lost 22,103
2008 Lamont Lovejoy Democratic Lost 18,709
2008 Margarite Dale Green Lost 2,358
2008 Scott Gibson Libertarian Lost 2,707
2008 James Weiers (Inc) Republican Lost 23,022
2008 Doug Quelland Republican Won 22,656
2006 Jackie Thrasher Democratic Won 16,735
2006 Lamont Lovejoy Democratic Lost 12,100
2006 James Weiers (Inc) Republican Won 17,093
2006 Doug Quelland (Inc) Republican Lost 16,504
2004 Jackie Thrasher Democratic Lost 21,284
2004 Aaron Jahneke Democratic Lost 17,042
2004 James Weirs Republican Won 24,185
2004 Doug Quelland Republican Won 22,959
2002 Jackie Thrasher Democratic Lost 11,738
2002 Christian Frandsen Democratic Lost 10,033
2002 Linda Grey Republican Won 16,741
2002 Doug Quelland Republican Won 14,337
Race Predictions

Democratic  Primary - Nothing to see here. Two very strong candidates that I can see.
Republican Primary   - Three candidates - one incumbent (Seel), with a moderate vs
                              conservative in the race for the other Republican spot.
General Election      - Good chance for Dems with Thrasher, Norwood a decent chance
                              also.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RACE TO WATCH: 21st LD (Peoria) - Winning  a Stretch Target
Partisan: 42.2% D Ave / 57.8% R Ave (18th Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (72.4%), Hispanic (19.7%), African American (3.7%), Native American (0.7%)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (15.3%)
Party Registration: 28.8% D, 37.7% R, 33.4% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  9th (67.3%), 12th (29.6%), & 4th (3.2%).
Components (Places): Peoria (42.92%), Sun City (22.57%), Surprise (18.83%), El Mirage (12.46%), Youngtown (2.79%)
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: ?? Michael Tarrats ??

District Details
The map above (in the section on the 20th LD) shows that the 21st LD is composed of fairly disparate local governments, with strongly Democratic areas in Surprise and El Mirage, and strongly Republican areas in Sun City and Youngtown. The anchor of the district, the southern half of Peoria does have both Democratic and Republican areas. The map below shows that these partisan leanings are directly related to race. The Democratic leaning areas are very Hispanic (shown in grey). Boy is the retirement village of Sun City really white !
Photobucket

Interesting Race Factors
This district was not much affected in redistricting, being predominantly the old 9th LD with a good chunk of the 12th LD thrown in. The candidates are all old 9th LD candidates, including the two Republican incumbents, and their former Democratic rivals.

21st District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Carol Lokare Democratic Peoria based Nurse/Poli-Sci Grad
Sheri Van Horsen Democratic Losing 2010 LD-09 candidate, and perennial candidate Peoria based Union Official
Rick Gray Republican (R-Inc) (9th) Freshman House Rep first won in 2010 Sun City based.
Debbie Lesko Republican (R-Inc Majority Whip) (9th), Sophomore Rep first won in 2008 Glendale based.
Race Predictions

Democratic  Primary - Two candidates only.
Republican Primary   - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, both incumbents.
General Election      - Possibly a chance for Dems.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RACE TO WATCH: 14th LD (Rural-East of Tucson/Cochise) - Winning  a Stretch Target
Partisan: 39.4% D Ave / 60.6% R Ave (21st Most Democratic LD)
Demographics (VAP): Non-Hisp White (65.0%), Hispanic (27.0%), African American (3.3%), Native American (0.9%) (11th most Hispanic VAP LD)
Demographics (VEP): Hispanic (22.7%)
Party Registration: 28.8% D, 36.8% R, 34.4% Other.
Components (Old LDs):  30th (41.9%), 25th (39.8%), 5th (18.2%)
Components (Counties): Cochise County (62.02%), Pima (19.75%), Graham (14.57%), Greenlee (3.66%).
Democratic State Senate Candidate/s: Top Tier (Pat Fleming)

District Details
This is a Cochise County centred district created as Republican vote sink in the redistricting process that saw a competitive Flagstaff district and two extra Democratic districts in greater Tucson created. The old Mormon 5th LD was ripped apart, with Greenlee and Graham counties (minus the San Carlos Reservation) sent south to the new 14th LD. Unlike the old 5th which made sense, the old 25th and 30th were weird districts designed to be kinder to Pinto Democrats and Republicans respectively.

In Cochise County, the population is concentrated in the south-west corner. The Democratic strength is located in the County capital Bisbee, an old mining town turned gay friendly artists colony/retirement community and the extremely Hispanic Douglas.
Photobucket

In Graham County and Greenlee County, the populations are concentrated in the County Seats of Safford and Clifton. The Democratic strength is fairly non-existent in the Republican stronghold of Safford, but Greenlee County is historically Democratic, but as the least populated county is easily overwhelmed. The only Democratic parts of Graham County are contained in the San Carlos reservation which is the only part of the county not in this district.
Photobucket

In Pima County, the population is concentrated south of the I-10, with the northern area sparsely populated mountains which are predominantly National Parks. There does not appear to be any Democratic pockets at all, but the area seems only around as Republican as the district overall.
Photobucket

Interesting Race Factors
Why is this an interesting race ? I really don't know - it is in the pretty Republican category. It does include the Cochise County section of the current 25th District which is historically Democratic, having elected mostly Democrats to the State Senate and general both a Democrat and a Republican to the House. In recent times long serving husband and wife Democrat lawmakers Gus and Marsha Arzberger were Term Limited out of the State Senate. The fact that the Dems are on offense here is a big morale boost given 5 of the other 6 Pima districts are already blue.

In terms of redistricting's effects - all State House and Senate candidates are Sierra Vista (Cochise County) based, with no other Republicans or Democrats bothering to run. For the Republicans, there were 6 House Incumbents that could have run, but the two 5th District incumbents are running in the new Flagstaff based 6th LD, and the current 30th LD incumbent, Tucson based Ted Vogt is running in the 10th LD. Peggy Judd is running for election to Cochise County, leaving sophomores David Gowan and David Stevens to run. Both lost early attempts in the Republican primary before winning. Sierra Vista is a third of Cochise County and relies on nearby Fort Huachuca for employment.

The 25th was mostly in Democratic hands until the 2010 wipeout, which took out the Democratic State Senator Manuel Alvarez and one of the two House Reps, Patricia Fleming. Fleming who had lost narrowly when she previously competed for a House Seat, was the highest vote getter in 2008 in the district although she was second to Republican David Stevens in Colchise County.  The big difference in 2010 was lower turnout in Colchise County - the Republicans held their numbers in Colchise and improved them in Pima County to win.

What Happened in the AZ-08 Special Election ?
LD-14 is not entirely within AZ-08, but the Cochise and Pima portions are. The results for Cochise County are shown here with only the southern portions of the county going Democratic (Bisbee and Douglas).
AZ-08 (Cochise)

AZ-08 Results Where Within LD-14

County Democratic (Barber) % Republican (Kelly) % Green (Manolakis) % Total
Cochise 10,913 12,970 764 24,740
Pima 3797 3444 139 7380
Okay so with the Cochise and Pima County sections of the district, they are located within AZ-08, which was won by Ron Barber in the Special Election.

14th District Primary Candidates

Name Party Electoral Experience Notes
Robert Leach Democratic Sierra Vista based. Army Veteran/Masters Degree in Justice & Security/Several Community Leadership roles
Mark Stonebraker Democratic Sierra Vista based. Computer Scientist/Small Business Owner
David Gowan Republican R-Inc (30th) First elected in 2008 Sierra Vista based.
David Stevens Republican R-Inc (25th) First elected in 2008 Sierra Vista based.
Race Predictions

Democratic Primary - Two candidates only.
Republican Primary - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, both incumbents.
General Election - Possibly a chance for Dems...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RACES TO MAYBE WATCH - PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN
Okay the next few seats all have Republican majorities and generally have Republican incumbents. The Democrats are largely unknowns, and it would be interesting to see whether there is much point having more than one Democratic candidate in these races.

Table 4: Republican Leaning Arizona State House Race Ratings, Candidates & Rankings

# Region House Ds House Rs House Race Ratings
17 Greater Phoenix Karyn Lathan-Chandler (victims advocate/police officer/air force veteran) Tom Forese (R-Inc) (21st),
Javan "J.D." Mesnard (R-Inc) (21st)
Likely R / Certain R
11 Rural-North of Tucson Dave Joseph-Oro Valley (Small Business Owner/Consultant in Local TV stations) Adam Kwasman-NE Tucson (strong party backing),
Steve Smith (R-Inc State Senate) (23rd) (Running here rather than challenge Melivn for the Senate Seat or in the Dem leaning 8th)
Certain R / Safe R
What to Watch For In the Democratic Primary
17th LD - Just one candidate, lets see how many votes she gets.
11th LD - Just one candidate, lets see how many votes he gets.

What to Watch For In the Republican Primary
17th LD - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, both incumbents.
11th LD - Nothing to see here. Two candidates, one incumbent.

What to Watch For In the General Election
17th LD - One Certain R. Not much chance for Dems.
11th LD - One Certain R. Not much chance for Dems.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

RACES TO MAYBE WATCH - SAFE REPUBLICAN

I have run out of time, but the 1st District (centered around Prescott), is a race to watch.

There is an excellent roundup here which shows how State Senator Lori Klein is trying to survive redistricting by taking out State House Speaker Andy Tobin for being too moderate.

Tobin is of course not a moderate, he is very conservative, but he is sane and stops some bills from going through that the nut jobs put forward so he has to go apparently.

WATCH THIS RACE !!!!

Originally posted to CF of Aus on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 12:34 PM PDT.

Also republished by Baja Arizona Kossacks.

Poll

Do you think Democrats can take the State House for the first time in many decades ?

45%9 votes
35%7 votes
20%4 votes

| 20 votes | Vote | Results

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 12:34:19 PM PDT

  •  People I hope you enjoy this diary as it took me a (5+ / 0-)

    long time to put together. I will be back to discuss in a few hours...

    Looking forward to the primary results rolling through shortly!

    Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

    by CF of Aus on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 12:36:14 PM PDT

  •  We'll be liveblogging primary results (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    trueblueliberal, CF of Aus

         at Baja Arizona Kossacks, 7 pm local time.

    The GOP ... Government of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

    by Azazello on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 01:38:21 PM PDT

  •  Interesting (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    trueblueliberal, CF of Aus

    I posted a comment here earlier and it's not showing now...hmm!  No worries.

    Nice job with this diary!  Tons of info and love that it's all in one place like this.

    I'm in LD 18 and voted this a.m. with a friend who tagged along and she voted too!  Hubby's there now casting his vote.  I sure hope we can get some more Dems in our state house!

    I did notice, however, that you had the voting date as this Thursday, August 30th close to the beginning of your diary.  I believe it was the 2nd link.  The primary is today, so you may want to edit that.  :)

    Otherwise, thanks for your hard work!

    If you don't know why GREED and GLUTTONY are two of the Seven Deadly Sins, just look at the Republican Party and their Corporate Masters to understand why.

    by Shaking the Tree on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 01:48:28 PM PDT

    •  Damn - must have been technical issues (0+ / 0-)

      I hate it when you lose a comment like that. Thanks for reposting though.

      Yikes a bit of an admin error there - will correct that. I blame the Republican Party brainwashing me to fool primary voters !

      Great to hear that you are in LD-18 we really need to do well there... that is a crucial district to take back the house or senate.

      I wish you the best of luck in getting some Dem representation whether congress or state legislature!

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 05:29:46 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  nice (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    trueblueliberal, CF of Aus

    Hell of a job putting all this stuff together with the data, maps, links, etc. Based on what you have here I think your race ratings are a bit generous to Dems, though. Their ceiling is probably 29.

    8: I don't see a reason to expect Pratt to lose here, the district slightly favors the GOP and he doesn't appear to be too far to the right. Bustamante may have the edge for the other seat as a former rep, though.

    18: I'm not seeing this one for the Dems. They have two noobs, and the GOP has two incumbents who aren't too far to the right. Ahwatukee is a historically GOP area even though it's only marginal now.

    6: who knows? At least in the 90s Flagstaff often sent up moderate Reeps like John Wettaw and John Verkamp and the GOP might do very poorly in that part of the district in this cycle. Barton might be seen as too much of an outsider as Safford is geographically and culturally very different from most of the rest of the district and she doesn't seem to have much crossover appeal. Thorpe looks even weaker as he seems flaky and his website looks and reads like Dale Blanchard's but with some nice landscape shots. One or both Dems (probably more likely Ballard) should have a chance to squeak through if they play their cards right.

    28: I like Meyer's chances here as he's done it before in a worse year.

    20: Seel might be the easiest of the 3 Republicans to beat, Boyer doesn't seem to be too far out of the GOP mainstream based on his web page and as a former staffer with some familiarity with the process he may be less likely to make some types of rookie mistake than a typical first-time candidate. Thrasher might be able to steal this one in any case.

    SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

    by sacman701 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:06:32 PM PDT

    •  Excellent points as always sacman701 (0+ / 0-)

      Yes I will admit I am on the optimistic side - I think however my ratings are only applying due to this being a presidential year where Obama will get out the vote by railing against the Republican extreme fringe. I think your call of 29 definitely applies to next cycle without question.

      But yeah 6th and 18th I think will depend on how the Dem candidates in AZ-01 and AZ-09 go. But yes the House candidates for the 18th are not as strong as the State Senate candidate.

      With regards to the 8th I actually did a bit more research and the voting there is very racially polarized. I did'nt change my diary because I ran out of time, but any Hispanic who is not a member of the Rios family struggles to get white voters. I think we will actually win the State Senate seat quite easily, but the three Hispanic candidates will find it tough to overcome Pratt. Having said that this seat was devised as a "Copper Corridor" seat with input from Peter Rios, and it has whatever remains of the few remaining Pinto Democrats so it doesnt get much better than this - the seat will trend red each election, so we need to try and win the House seats now and prevent the Legislature from changing the independent redistricting process.

      Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

      by CF of Aus on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 05:37:55 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  update (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      CF of Aus

      8: Pratt ran far ahead of Shope in the primary with 6.2k to 4.4k. Looks like a nice opening for Bustamante who got 5.0k. I would guess it's pretty rare for a Reep who got fewer votes than a Dem in the primary to get more in the general. Verdugo got 4.6k and might even have a chance to nose Pratt out.

      20: Boyer got 9.5k votes to Seel's 6.9k suggesting that Seel is far more vulnerable. Thrasher got 5.5k which probably puts her in range.

      28: Reeve got 11.2k to McGee's 14.3k, which is a smaller % dropoff than in either of the other districts. Meyer got 9.4k.

      SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

      by sacman701 on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 11:25:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Cheers sacman, the 8th looks promising (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        The total Dem vote amongst the three Dems exceeded that for the two Republicans...

        The results for the 6th and 18th both look disapointing for the Dems... With no Hispanic vote to blame.

        I am far more confident for Meyer in the 28th - I think far greater Hispanic turnout in the general should get him over the line against Reeve. Clearly 3000 people who voted for The moderate Brophy voted for Meyer over Reeve.

        In the State Senate it looks like we are good for at least 13 seats - Dems lead GOP in the 13 bluest seats. In the Tucson based 10th incumbent GOP Antenori was down to Bradley and in the west Mesa/Tempe based 26th incumbent GOP senator Jerry Lewis was down to Ed Ableser. Looks like we will need much better turnout to win any more seats

        Town Planner, 30 years Old, Election Junkie, Thinks John Boehner is starting to be worried about holding the House...

        by CF of Aus on Thu Aug 30, 2012 at 04:07:36 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Awesome work, thank you. nt (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    trueblueliberal, CF of Aus

    Saint, n. A dead sinner revised and edited. - Ambrose Bierce

    by pico on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:41:43 PM PDT

  •  Very informative (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CF of Aus

    I knew D's had a shot at the Senate, but not the House also. I'm not very familiar with Arizona (mostly know about FL, AR and NY) but now I feel pretty well educated on the legislative battles going on in the state. Thanks so much for all of this information! Great work!

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