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This is part two of my series looking at the political geography of elections at the state level.  In it, I present maps and data for the average of statewide races from 2004 to present by county for each state and by precinct where data is available.  This is to give you a better visual idea of which parts of a state are more or less friendly to each party.  Additionally, I compare Obama's 2008 performance to the average to see which areas he performs better or worse than would be expected by a local Democrat.  You can find part 1 on the Northeast here.

All county level data is from Dave Leip's Atlas while all precinct level data was taken from Dave's Redistricting App.  You can click on most of the maps for a larger image.

Alabama


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Partisan average includes 2004, 2008, and 2010 senate and 2006 and 2010 governor, lieutenant governor, secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general, and auditor.
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In Alabama, Democratic strength lies along the black belt and in rural white areas in the north of the state.  Obama drove up turnout in this first region, but cratered in the blue-dog friendly north of the state as well as other heavily white rural areas.  This trend is pretty common, but especially so in the south.

Interesting to note is that Jefferson County, home to Birmingham, only voted Republican for president once before 1956 when Eisenhower won it, but Obama is the only Democrat to carry it since.  That includes when Jimmy Carter won the state by double digits in 1976 and really goes to show that despite underperforming the typical Democrat in much of the south, there are areas where Obama performs just as well or better.

Finally, I tried loading the Obama-Average comparison by precinct in DRA from a .csv, but for no apparent reason it only partially loads the state and manually coloring several thousand precincts is a non-starter.  Maybe one of you all can try it, but it unfortunately doesn't work for me.

Arkansas


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Partisan average includes 2004 and 2010 senate, 2006 and 2010 governor, lieutenant governor, and secretary of state, and 2006 treasurer and attorney general.
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Democratic strength in Arkansas runs through a fairly similar coalition: the heavily black areas of the delta, rural whites in the delta and south Arkansas, and urban strength in cities such as Little Rock.  However, there aren't as many large suburban areas such as Alabama has.

Obama underperformed significantly across much of Arkansas, but did so mostly in the white, rural areas that are key to local Dems winning.  On the other hand, he held up fairly well in the more urban and heavily black areas, but also in the historically Republican northwest of the state.

Florida


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Partisan average includes 2004 and 2006 senate and 2006 and 2010 governor, CFO, and attorney general.
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In Florida, Democrats have a somewhat different coalition since the state isn't entirely southern.  Democrats do well in the Tallahassee region as well as heavily populated southeast Florida while the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Daytona Beach is the state's key swing region.  This area has trended Democratic at a very fast pace, in part due to the 2000s housing boom.  As such, Obama performed significantly better than the Dem average, especially in the Orlando metro area.  On the other hand, Obama lagged significantly behind Dems in the much more culturally southern Panhandle region, particularly in the counties in what is the 2nd congressional district.

Georgia


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Partisan average includes 2004 and 2008 senate and 2006 and 2010 governor, lt. governor, secretary of state, attorney general, and insurance commissioner.
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In Georgia, Democrats have a coalition fairly similar to that of the typical southern state: winning the urban areas, rural black belt, and rural blue dog areas.  Republicans are strong in the fast-growing Atlanta suburbs and the much whiter rural areas in the north and southeast of the state.

Like Florida though, Georgia also experienced strong growth in its major urban area and significant growth among minorities over the past decade.  This caused Obama to perform much higher than the typical Democrat in urban and heavily Black Atlanta as well as the suburbs.  That performance is counterbalanced by his lagging behind the average in most of the rural areas, particularly in the south-central part of the state and Appalachia.

Kentucky


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Partisan average includes 2004, 2008, and 2010 senate and 2007 and 2011 governor, secretary of state, treasurer, attorney general, and auditor.
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In contrast to the deep south states, the Democratic coalition in Kentucky is somewhat different.  Dems still do well in larger urban areas such as Louisville, but also in the coal counties of eastern Kentucky where unionization rates are still relatively high, especially compared to the south as a whole.  

In addition, Kentucky has a much smaller and almost entirely urban black population which causes the electorate to be much more elastic between how well local Democrats do and how poorly Obama does in comparison.  Still, if you were to compare Obama to a local Democrat who loses Kentucky by a similar margin, Obama continues his trend of performing relatively better in urban areas such as Lexington and suburbs such as those south of Cincinnati.  However, he underperforms more in the coal counties than in other rural ones.

Louisiana


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Partisan average includes 2004, 2008, and 2010 senate, 2007 and 2011 governor and insurance commissioner, and 2007 lt. governor, secretary of state, and attorney general.
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Louisiana is the most politically and racially polarized state when you look at the precinct level.  Democratic areas consist of heavily minority New Orleans, Baton Rouge, and Shreveport as well as some other but less populous rural black areas.  This was essentially the coalition Obama won, plus holding down the margins in heavily Republican suburbs of cities such as New Orleans.  To win the state though, local Democrats have to be able to compete in Acadiana in the south of the state which is where Obama performs significantly worse.

Mississippi


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Partisan average includes 2006, 2008, and 2008 special senate, 2007 and 2011 governor, treasurer, attorney general, and insurance commissioner, and 2007 lt. governor, secretary of state, and auditor.
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Mississippi is probably the best example of how Obama performed much better with black voters and much worse with blue dog whites in the deep south.  He runs ahead of local Dems by several points in the heavily black areas of the Delta while running several points behind in the much whiter northeast and south of the state.  Seeing this data helps to make sense of how Gene Taylor and Travis Childress were able to win their old districts since Obama lagged a substantial amount behind what a white conservative would get.  Additionally, it makes sense that Mississippi couldn't support a 2nd VRA district while other deep south states can since neither district would be Democratic enough to support a black candidate consistently.  This is a state where I really wish I could take a look at the precinct level data.

North Carolina


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Partisan average includes all statewide races from 2004-2010.
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We finally get to my home state of North Carolina which has the single best data set to work with as it was the only state that already had every 2004-2010 race by precinct on DRA.  Politically, the state's Democratic coalition is about what you would expect by looking at Obama's performance and keeping in mind it's in the south.  Democrats do well in the rural and heavily black northeast, the inland southeast which contains large numbers of minorities and white blue dogs, as well as the fast growing cities of Charlotte, Raleigh, etc.

When comparing Obama to the average, the pattern is the same as with much of the south.  Obama does better in the fast growing cities and suburbs in the Triangle, Triad, and Charlotte area, as well as the more urban and educated parts of Appalachia.  On the other hand, he performs significantly worse in many of the whiter rural areas, particularly in eastern North Carolina which has long been home to the Jessecrat.

Oklahoma


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Partisan average includes 2004, 2008, and 2010 senate and 2006 and 2010 governor, lt. governor, treasurer, attorney general, auditor, and insurance commissioner.
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Oklahoma is another state that doesn't quite fit the pattern of the more culturally southern ones.  Like Kentucky, it's more Democratic rural areas such as Little Dixie are also very non-black and thus see Obama do horribly compared to local Democrats.  On the other hand, Obama performed quite poorly almost across the board in Oklahoma.  His political coalition was the much more typical in consisting of urban areas and doing better in the suburbs.

South Carolina


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Partisan average includes 2004 and 2008 senate, 2006 and 2010 governor, lt. governor,  secretary of state, and comptroller, 2006 treasurer, and 2010 attorney general.
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Democrats in South Carolina perform strongly as would be expected in the rural black belt between the coast and Columbia, as well as in the state's urban centers.  Obama runs fairly similarly to local Dems in the black belt while doing considerably worse with white rural voters.  To make up for it, he overperforms along the coast and in fast-growing areas such as Charleston that saw large migration from outside the south over the past decade.  He overperforms in the Charlotte suburbs as well despite underperforming in many of the rural counties that border swing state North Carolina.

Tennessee


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Partisan average includes 2006 and 2008 senate and 2006 and 2010 governor.
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Tennessee is an interesting state in that almost alone out of the rest of the south, it has regions that have long been Republican strongholds such as eastern Tennessee.  Democrats predictably do well in urban areas and those with large minority populations, but also along the Tennessee River Valley and the counties east of the Nashville metro area.

Obama does significantly worse than average across most of the state, but particularly in the rural areas such as the Tennessee River where local Dems do well.  On the other hand, increased black turnout and a stronger than average appeal to suburbs causes Obama to overperform with those demographics, particularly in Memphis and Nashville.

Texas


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Partisan average includes 2006 and 2008 senate, 2006 and 2010 governor, lt. governor, and attorney general, and 2006 comptroller.
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In Texas, the Democratic vote share is concentrated in urban areas such as Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth as well as the heavily hispanic counties along the Mexican border.  In addition, Democrats do well in some of the rural areas of east Texas.

Capturing the overall trend of the state, Obama overperforms the average in all of the major urban areas and does so tremendously along the border regions such as El Paso and the Rio Grande Valley.  Obama also improves significantly in suburban areas of Houston and Dallas while he lags considerably in rural eastern as well as north-central Texas.

Virginia


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Partisan average includes 2006 and 2008 senate and 2005 and 2009 governor, lt. governor, and attorney general.
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In Virginia, Obama performs better than average in the growing and Democratic trending suburbs of Northern Virginia and as well as the more rural Southside by boosting black turnout.  In addition he overperforms in Richmond and Hampton Roads.  Much like neighboring West Virginia though, Obama does significantly worse in Appalachian western Virginia though not as much in the more historically Republican Shenandoah Valley.

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In this last set of maps, I've combined several of the independent cities with their surrounding or adjacent county to present an alternate look at the state.

West Virginia


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Partisan average includes 2006, 2008, and 2010 senate, 2004 and 2008 governor, secretary of state, and attorney general, 2004 treasurer and auditor, and 2011 governor.
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West Virginia isn't entirely southern, but more culturally Appalachian and central Appalachian at that.  As such, Democrats can't rely on winning rural blacks as part of their political coalition and instead focus on winning the handful of modest sized cities in the state as well as the more coal-heavy counties of southern and central West Virginia.

Obama performs worse than the average Democrat essentially across the whole state, with the few exceptions college town Morganton and the eastern Panhandle counties in the D.C. media market which would get exposure to Virginia campaign ads.  Similarly to eastern Kentucky, Obama absolutely craters in the coal-dependent south of the state, but keep in mind he still does far better with those rural whites than he does in the rest of the south as West Virginia is much, much whiter than the rest of the south.

Conclusion
I hope you found these maps to be useful visualizations of the elections in each of these states.  As the purpose of this series is mostly to provide data and graphics, I welcome discussion as to why certain regions in states favor Democrats or Republicans and particularly why Obama's electoral performance diverges from local Democrats.  Part 3 will cover the Midwestern United States.

Originally posted to sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 08:20 AM PDT.

Also republished by Kos Georgia, Southern Action, and Community Spotlight.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Fascinating stuff, sawolf - thanks for posting (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, WisJohn, MPociask

    this analysis. I have grown weary of people looking at just "red state" and "blue state" as determinants of all political outcomes. This is very useful information for those of us in red states looking to turn them blue.

    Some drink deeply from the river of knowledge. Others only gargle. -- Woody Allen

    by cassandracarolina on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 08:26:08 AM PDT

  •  Great job again! Thanks for this series. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, cassandracarolina

    Some West Virginians, however, may disagree.  In the DKos polls at least, 65-70% say they live in the Northeast!

    •  I tried to largely stick to the census bureau's (3+ / 0-)

      definition of the four regions, though I did stick Maryland and Delaware in the Northeast.  West Virginia really belongs firmly in Appalachia though, and central Appalachia from about western Virginia/eastern Kentucky through western Pennsylvania is a fairly coherent region when compared to the south or northeast as a whole, but it had to go somewhere.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 08:36:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Fascinating data (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    I just looked at my own state, Florida.  Quite a striking difference between where I live (Tallahassee) and south and central Florida.  Counties with stronger support for Obama in 2008 in the Panhandle were generally the ones with large African-American populations.  Leon County (Tallahassee) is a bit of an outlier as the large number of University and State Government employees makes it 'bluer' than it would be otherwise.

    Counties with lower African American populations generally had very low Obama support.  This includes both very sparsely populated, highly rural counties such as Liberty and more populated counties with a fair amount of built up coastal infrastructure such as Bay and Walton counties.

    In contrast support for Obama in south Florida is much less tightly linked to AA population as shown by Sarasota and Monroe counties in the southwest which are decidedly purple despite having tiny AA populations.

    "We are normal and we want our freedom" - Bonzos

    by matching mole on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 09:15:26 AM PDT

  •  VA map (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, WisJohn, dufffbeer

    I really appreciate the map where you merge the cities and surrounding counties for VA, I've often wondered what such a map would look like and I think it gives clearer picture on some of the trends, thanks!

    OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

    by aamail6 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 11:33:33 AM PDT

  •  Nice post. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    Really surprised Obama's PVI was worse than the average PVI in Fairfax County.

    Maybe Fairfax was even more Democratic relative to the state-at-large in 2009 than it was in 2008.

    http://mypolitikal.com/

    by Inoljt on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 11:44:55 AM PDT

    •  Well, he still "overperformed" as a raw percentage (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Inoljt

      but I'm guessing that since the Fairfax suburbs are more established than those of say, Prince William County, voters there have gotten used to voting Dem further down the ballot.

      What also probably makes it's Obama PVI lower than it's average PVI is that Obama's raw overperformance was higher in Richmond, Southside, and Hampton Roads but didn't hit say, 64% in Fairfax.

      It sort of gets at what's problematic with presenting data this way as West Virginia is a great example.  Obama underperformed what a generic West Virginia Democrat would have done in the 2008 election in pretty much every county, but since he gets compared to a WV Dem who also loses by the same margin, some counties show up as overperforming since his coalition is different.

      It also is hard to conceive of what the "average" should even be if you're trying to determine raw over or under performance, since the average I'm using takes elections from multiple years with different political environments and can't distinguish between incumbents or open seats.  The ideal average percentage is essentially unknowable since we can't test concurrent presidential elections against each other.  That's why I ended up comparing Obama's performance to what a similar win or loss by a local generic Dem would look like

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:04:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Nice to see all the details for a change. (4+ / 0-)

    I want to echo the other Kossak's comment about not seeing things merely as red and blue states. The details tell a very different picture of diversity - and of large numbers of loyal Democratic voters, even if they represent a minority of voters in most of those states.

    I am fond of reminding the "f*ck the f*cking Southern f*cktards" diarists that John Kerry got more votes in Georgia than he did in Wisconsin. Not a winning proportion here, but lots of good Democrats. Who, by the way would not be happy in any of those "let them secede" scenarios often touted by Democrats from outside the region.

    If you don't stick to your values when they're tested, they're not values. They're... hobbies. -- Jon Stewart, Jan. 22, 2009

    by pat208 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 12:04:28 PM PDT

  •  geographic data summary & presentation (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, MPociask

    great work!  as a retired public health statistician (among other), who was perhaps  a first user (perhaps 25 years ago)  of zip zone level data for such things as infant mortality as well as one who is very concerned re outcome of this election for the future (of world, in reality), i very much appreciate the great deal of work that went into your presentation.

    astute workers on this election may be able to develop ever more effective strategy for media campaigns and other efforts.  study of these data will lead to useful action steps for the astute.

    again, thanks, sawolf.

    •  The use of GIS and Statistical analysis (0+ / 0-)

      are becoming quite common by professional political consultants on both sides.

      "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

      by hankmeister on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 03:45:47 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  would like to see a demographic map showing (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, Inoljt, nimh

    Black residents and also showing voter turnout.  

    But on a big picture basis, how many Black voters in Southeastern U.S. actually show up to the polls?  How do their real numbers compare to their turnout in any given election?

    Are there states that could turn Blue overnight with, say, a 75% turnout of Black voters?

    Just wondering.

    Oregon: Sure...it's cold. But it's a damp cold.

    by Keith930 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 01:14:19 PM PDT

    •  Map showing county-level black population (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, jncca

      The New York Times' excellent maps on the 2010 US Census data include a map showing the black population, on a county-by-county level.

    •  Well I know that for my own state of NC (0+ / 0-)

      the state is required to report such data under the Voting Rights Act, and blacks turned out at their census percentage +1%, so black turnout was pretty similar to white turnout.  You could probably search for similar information from other VRA section 5 states.

      I'm guessing though that black turnout is typically lower in the deep south, especially in non-presidential elections, than it is in wealthier places like suburban Prince George's County, Maryland.  Not too sure how urban black voters turnout compared to elsewhere though.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:08:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I don't think relying on higher black turn-out (0+ / 0-)

      is a good idea.

      Blacks already turn-out at high rates; black turn-out is almost the same as white turn-out.

      Which is actually quite amazing, because typical black voter is poorer and (very slightly) more likely to be an immigrant than the typical white voter. So blacks should be turning out in lower numbers than whites. But they're not.

      Trying to make blacks turn-out in even higher numbers than they're already doing so, I think, is really getting into the area of diminishing marginal returns. Imo it's much better to focus on Hispanic and Asian turn-out (both of which are really, really low and especially so in the South).

      http://mypolitikal.com/

      by Inoljt on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:46:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  "almost the same"...in a region that routinely (0+ / 0-)

        elects politicians that are hostile to their interests.

        Sorry...that doesn't wash with me.  It should be higher.

        Crackers already know their asses are covered by the typical Southern politician, so they have less incentive to vote.

        Oregon: Sure...it's cold. But it's a damp cold.

        by Keith930 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:51:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  For presidential elections you're right, but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        James Allen

        black turnout drops off considerably more than white turnout in midterms and probably even more so for local elections in odd years.  Pushing up turnout among blacks for midterms and state legislative elections would probably yield a very good return on investment.  At the same time, Hispanics and Asians in the south are going to have very low voter eligibility rates as a percentage of total eligibility to the point where turning out more blacks is probably still marginally beneficial.

        NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

        by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 02:55:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  And here's a map showing county-level turnout ... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      sawolf, hankmeister

      .... rates for the 2008 Presidential elections: Map in full size (though still not large enough to my liking); Accompanying article (exploring correlations with education and poverty).

      The map illustrates how Obama's candidacy already boosted turnout in the "Black Belt" in the South to average or above-average levels; the regions with low turnout seem to have overwhelmingly been those with rural, poor white residents (is the Appalachians; Arkansas/SE Oklahoma/rural Texas; southern Georgia).

  •  Props man! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    mad props to you!

    "Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of State and corporate power." -Benito Mussolini, Fascist dictator of Italy

    by hankmeister on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 03:22:33 PM PDT

  •  One of the most interesting things I've seen... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    ...for a while. Thanks for posting these maps, and especially the link to Dave's Redistricting. I've just spent an hour on there going through the various precincts in NYC.

    Or maybe that just shows how sad I am? Oh well.

    •  Oh no trust me, Dave's Redistricting App (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dufffbeer

      is a massive time sink.  I've drawn something with nearly every single state and diaried dozens of hypothetical maps as well.  It's very interesting just to look at the census and partisan data on the app even if you don't map anything with it.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 03:45:38 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NE NC vs SE VA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    What caused Obama to overperform in SE VA and underperform in NE NC?  Both are rural Blue Dog areas with a large black population in heavily targeted swing states.

    •  Running into a ceiling, or sort of (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      mustang dvs, dufffbeer

      Among black voters and heavily black areas (not precincts, areas) Obama didn't really have that much room to improve in northeastern NC, while there were plenty of conservative white Democrats who would vote against him.  That part of the state is easily the most Democratic at the state level, but a sizable chunk of that does come from Mike McIntyre type of conservative Dems.  There are just a whole lot more black voters to make up for it, unlike in the southeast.

      I don't know that much about Virginia's regional politics, but southeastern Virginia is much whiter, even when looking at those rural parts of the Southside.

      One thing I loved about doing NC was that the data set on DRA was essentially complete and both the average and Obama/McCain were close to 50/50.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 05:29:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Black-majority counties and relative Obama pull? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    These are great diaries, Sawolf. I have a question about this one.

    I noticed that on the "Obama relative to average" maps, some of the rural, heavily-black counties show up as having come out for Obama especially strongly - eg, the counties near the Mississippi river in Mississippi state, and to some extent the Black Belt in Alabama. But others don't! Eg the northeast of Northern Carolina.

    To doublecheck if my eyes were deceiving me, I made a table with just the counties in your tables that have a black population of over 58%, to compare the vote Obama got in them with the average Dem vote you identify:

    http://i.imgur.com/...

    (Really annoying that DailyKos doesn't accept ImgUr as image site, by the way, so I can only post the link here, not embed the image.)

    It seems that, compared with the average Dem vote, Obama had a strong additional pull in Mississippi and Virginia, but a weak or even inverse one in North Carolina and South Carolina.

    An obvious explanation for the deviations would lie in the size of the black majority in the county: a county with 60% blacks and 35% whites will be likely to have a lot more Blue Dogs, whose voting behavior differs drastically from that of black voters, than one with 80% blacks and just 15% whites. But sorting the counties by percentage blacks seems to show only a slight correlation:

    http://i.imgur.com/...

    The difference from state to state seems to be more significant. So how come? Why did Obama overperform - or why did the other Democratic candidates who make up your averages underperform - in black-majority counties in Mississippi, while the opposite held true in the Carolinas? Any idea?

    •  That point is definitely worth noting (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      nimh, dufffbeer, WisJohn

      And as I mentioned upthread, part of it has to do with how the average gets defined, but part of it has to do with typical black turnout being higher in the upper south than in the deep south.  I know it's definitely true of midterms, but I'm pretty sure that black turnout lags white turnout more in the Mississippi delta than it would in eastern North Carolina or southeastern Virginia.  Additionally, in NC and VA there are bound to be white blue dogs pretty much everyplace you have rural blacks, while in Mississippi and Alabama you tend to have white blue dogs in places that are already fairly white, at least at the county level.

      I would also guess that while in NC and VA, the Obama campaign boosted Dem votes among both blacks and whites, only the black Dem vote was increased in dark red states like Alabama while the white vote continued to trend more Republican.  I really wish I could get the "Obama vs Average" to work by precinct in Alabama since even in the border of the black belt there's a pretty stark difference between how Obama does relative to average and how white or black the area is.

      Now for South Carolina I couldn't quite say, as both it and Georgia exhibited somewhat different black/white voting patterns than either Alabama/Mississippi or North Carolina/Virginia did, but I would assume that the base level of black turnout is probably higher and the racial polarization is definitely lower than in the Mississippi delta.

      Part of it probably comes down to us just not being able to run a white version of Obama in some alternate universe, or Hillary Clinton, or even some blue dog like Joe Manchin, just to see how they would compare to Obama's coalition.

      NC-06/NC-04; -9.00, -8.41; progress through pragmatism

      by sawolf on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 06:44:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A difference I noticed between Northeast and South (0+ / 0-)

    In the Northeastern states (especially NJ and MD) the Dem vs GOP maps show a small area of dark blue in the cities and red everywhere else, and the Obama over/under maps show a thin layer of blue spread over half the state and a thin layer of red spread over the other half.  In the Southern states (especially NC and TN) it's the other way round, the Dem vs GOP maps show the state being half blue half red and the Obama over/under maps show blue concentrated in the cities and red everywhere else.

    •  Probably ancestral voting patterns (0+ / 0-)

      as many of the northeastern states are ancestrally Republican, while most of the South is ancestrally Democratic. Note that the parts of East Tennessee that are not coal country (and therefore are ancestrally Republican) look a lot like the red areas of a northeastern state in these maps.

      Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

      by fearlessfred14 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 07:37:56 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  (R)Tim Griffin, AR prediction... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    WisJohn

    Last Wed. as Romney supporters faced a phalanx of protesters screamin' bloody murder "the party of legitimate RAPE" (@ :50 in link below), ZERO supporters that WEREN'T out-of-state, bussed in, and PAID, local Congressman (and Karl Rove midnight appointee) Tim Griffin confidently advised Arkansas voters would hand Romney a win by 15-20-25 points. In the ensuing days after Romney left town, the scuttlebutt from rank and file Repubs is they're NOT voting FOR Romney, but against the President....THATS IT....they don't like Romney, don't trust him for a WIDE VARIETY of reasons given, and either aren't voting for him, or just not voting....here, in solidly RED Arkansas, Christian, Pentecostal, Conservative, Family Values, Gun Rights Voters are OPENLY talking about how Repubs lost their vote based on the optics below:http://www.youtube.com/...

  •  Obama does better in Miami than the Panhandle (0+ / 0-)

    The Panhandle is part of the South.  I've been there.  Miami is Florida.  Miami is the capital of Latin America.  Certainly the Cubans lead, but there are Miami communities for every Latin American country.  The rich of Latin America have footholds in Miami.

    Miami is complex.

    But Romney and the Panhandle do not do well among Hispanics, whatever their origin.

    Florida is the key state.  Rmoney needs to win Florida.

    Daily Kos an oasis of truth. Truth that leads to action.

    by Shockwave on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 10:12:32 PM PDT

  •  Thanks! As a Virginian, I found this helpful. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    I appreciate your efforts.

    --------------------- “These are troubling times. Corporation are treated like people. People are treated like things. …And if we ever needed to vote, we sure do need to vote now.” -- Rev. Dr. William J. Barber

    by Fiona West on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 10:16:44 PM PDT

  •  Another interesting and thorough presentation (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf

    Looking forward to the next installments in the series.  You already did my original home state, looking forward to when make it all the way to my current home on the west coast :)

  •  VA vs NC & WV (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sawolf, skibum59

    There's a much stronger "Blue Dog" presence in NC because Virginia does not have political parties, everyone registers as an independent and declares which party ballot they want on primary day.  NC & WV have political parties... and therefore the historic Democratic party loyalty is much more institutionalized in the state.  Democrats have a very strong voter registration advantage, and in certain counties (especially eastern NC and all across WV) it is still hard to get elected to local office as a Republican because the vast majority of voters vote in Dem. primaries.  This is also how Obama almost lost the WV primary to that prisoner.  

    That is not to say conservative Democrats can't get elected in certain parts of Virginia, but if you compare Democrats' performance in southside Virginia, counties like Greensville, Emporia, Surry, Southampton... to those just across the border in North Carolina like Northampton, Gates, Martin, you will see what I mean.  Usually Democrats running statewide don't outperform federal candidates by much at all on the Virginia side, while they do by large margins on the NC side.  In fact, Bob McDonnell actually won many of the rural black majority counties in 2009, which shows you how few white people support Democrats in southern Virginia.

    Some of the western counties in Virginia show a large deficit for Obama compared to local Dems, but that is somewhat mis-representative - because hometown boy Creigh Deeds ran in 2005 and 2009 and ran up huge margins (something like 80% in Allegheny County in 2005) and also propped up other Democrats on the ballot.  The only place in VA where the Democrats do run much better statewide and locally is the far southwest where coal is a big issue (and Obama's black... shh).

    But anyway, sawolf, great job!  I know this must have taken a lot of work and time, but it's a great resource and very interesting. Thank you!

    VA-03 (current residence) NC-07 (home)

    by psychicpanda on Wed Aug 29, 2012 at 01:54:05 PM PDT

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