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PPP just released their Iowa poll.  The bad news is Obama's lead has declined but the good news is he's still ahead of Romney, 47% to 45%:

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...

PPP has noted that part of Obama's decline is due to the rise of Republican registration in Iowa but there are two silver linings that could help Obama.  One is Obama still has a large lead with unaffiliated voters, which is good because Iowa has the highest rate of Independent and unaffiliated voters more than any state in the country.  The other thing that will help Obama win the state again is if Obama makes wind energy a big issue:

"If wind energy ends up being a defining issue for Iowa voters that will be good news for Obama's prospects in the state. 54% of voters support the tax credit for wind energy production companies to only 26% who oppose it. Among independents support is 58/25. 68% of voters say they consider wind energy to be an important issue, including 29% of voters who say that it's 'very important.' When asked which Presidential candidate they trust more on wind energy Obama beats Romney 47-37. In a state that looks like a sheer toss up this could end up being a defining issue."

It'll be a tighter race in iowa this year but I still believe it's Obama's for the taking.  Wind energy is a winning issue for Obama and an issue he supports along with the majority or Iowans.  Lets see Romney flip flop on this issue.    

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Comment Preferences

  •  Iowa (0+ / 0-)

    is strongly against gay marriage. They ejected two Supreme Court justices for ruling in favor of gay marriage. This will hurt Obama badly there.

    •  er, no (11+ / 0-)

      Iowa actually HAS marriage equality so it's kind of lame to say "Iowa is strongly against gay marriage."  Compared to where?  All those states that don't have legal same sex marriage?  There was a lack of energy on the Democratic side all over the country in the 2010 election and that's when the justices got voted out.  

      Sorry but I really can't stand these glib statements about various states and regions based on preconceived ideas and cliches.  Barack Obama wouldn't be president at this point if it wasn't for Iowa.  My friends are recognized by my state as being married here in Iowa.  Not many states can boast the same.  The fact that the reactionary blowhards were able to take advantage of Democratic complacency in 2010 doesn't change that.  

      And, yeah, we're going to send our electors for Obama again in 2012.  He's never lost anything here.  

      When the truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

      by Sun dog on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 01:42:01 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Supreme Court of Iowa (0+ / 0-)

        is the institution that legalized gay marriage . The Supreme Court rules on constitional matters without regard to public opinion.
        The Supreme Court of Iowa, however doesn't decide electoral affair.

        The people of Iowa are against gay marriage, public opinion in the state bears it out.

        THey all lost by about 10 points.

        http://data.desmoinesregister.com/...

        Blaming things on turn out is a cop-out.

        •  So what? (0+ / 0-)

          Obama isn't running for judge.  It's more important that Iowans are older and whiter than most states.

        •  As one of the "people of Iowa" (7+ / 0-)

          you're overgeneralizing.  Unless you want to tell me what I believe.

          And to clarify, the opposition was organized and was well-funded by outside resources.

          •  majority doesn't include all in the state (0+ / 0-)

            when i say people of iowa, i meant the preponderance or the majority

            •  But that's the problem (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              Melanie in IA, gilgaiiowa, Witgren

              The numbers in Iowa aren't so different from the rest of the country and they aren't as bad as some other states.  You come out with "Iowa is strongly against gay marriage," as though the state stands out in that way.  But the way we stand out is as a state that has been marrying same sex couples for years and the anti-sentiment has faded from the mainstream.  

              By what you're saying you could say, "Americans are strongly against gay marriage," as long as a majority of people answer that way on a poll.  But you're singling out Iowa that, time and again, gets pigeonholed as some right wing bastion when it's not.  As well as being one of the first states to legally marry same sex couples, Iowa was among the first states to stand up for African American rights and women's rights.  You don't sound like you know shit about the state, so when Iowans tell you to lay off with the gross generalizations, maybe don't double down with

              Blaming things on turn out is a cop-out.
              What the hell does that even mean?  If one cites a fact you don't like it's a 'cop-out?'  Democratic complacency and right wing passion was the predictable norm across the country after Obama won.  In Iowa it was compounded by the fact that we campaigned intensely for a year BEFORE the rest of the country was paying attention to the presidential race.  You don't know what it's like on the ground here.  So don't lecture us.  K?  

              When the truth is only a matter of opinion, advantage goes to the liars.

              by Sun dog on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 03:13:40 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  NO. (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sun dog, CoyoteMarti, gilgaiiowa

          The Supreme Court did not legalize equal marriage rights. The Constitution of Iowa did.

        •  Did you even read my fellow Iowan Sun Dog's post? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sun dog

          2010 was a debacle where democrats dramatically stayed home and Rs, particularly teahaddists were motivated and voted.  I think Sun Dog hit it about right, and agree..  Iowa is a damned interesting state politically and you seem to miss that point.  

      •  btw as an addendum (0+ / 0-)

        Republicans need a huge turn out from social conservatives to win statewide in Iowa. Mitt Romney's Mormonism will hurt him among  those folks, so Obama may hope that those folks don't show up or vote third party when it comes to the presidential ballot.

        Obama however, could have helped nullify the anti-Mormon feelings by coming out strongly in favor of homosexual marriage.

  •  Illinois also borders Iowa... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Supavash

    just sayin.

  •  The poll had a GOP lean. (6+ / 0-)

    It was 38% GOP, 35% Dem and 27% Indie.  Actual current registration is Indie 35% GOP 32.5%, Dem 31.9% (or thereabouts).  If the numbers are plugged in, Obama's lead increases to close to 4 points because of the advantage he has with Indies.

    Iowa has same day registration and part of the reason Obama is making a lot of visits there is to increase the number of eligible Dem voters in the state.  The Iowa SOS has been purging the voter rolls and both parties have lost registered voters.  The Dems may have an advantage in terms of a larger pool of new voters + voters who need to update their status.

    All that said, Iowa is going to be a lot tighter than 2008.  Obama is somewhat underperforming his 2008 numbers at a similar stage of the race.  Lots of reasons for this.  In 2008, Obama had a big afterglow after the big caucus victory that lasted the whole way.  Even when other states were tight, Iowa showed a big Obama advantage for all but 1 poll.

    This year, Obama has had to invest time to wipe the stink off of the GOP caucus and all the crap they threw in his face.  I do agree that he has some real advantages in a close race, but one advantage we lack is a registration advantage, so we are depending on indies and GOTV to pull this one out.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 at 01:38:06 PM PDT

  •  I am baffled by the American voter. (0+ / 0-)

    I'm about ready to give up.  I'm looking to move if Romney is elected. I'm dead serious.

  •  Iowa has a ballot measure against ... (0+ / 0-)

    The state Supreme Court judge who ruled for gay marriage.  Not sure if it's a recall or what, but it will flush out a lot of bigots who will vote for Romney.  A tough state that if it flips along with WI, makes it critical to take Ohio.

    Obama has room to give back some states but not all of them; I like his chances but still ...

  •  I know this is the lamest of arguments (0+ / 0-)

    but might PPP be working overtime to shed their "D" lean?  some of these latest samples seem a bit off. I mean how they can Romney's personal approval actually have improved over the past month? It's been one gaff over another.

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