Week 2 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
The major changes this week dealt with new races coming on the board. As we get nearer the election date more races will look closer as people actually start paying attention and buying and selling shares on Intrade.
Arizona: (R) leads 63.7 - 36.3. This one is new this week, moving from prohibitive (R) to a race. Today the primary should make it clearer who will be running in the fall. Republican Hold
Connecticut: Congressman Chris Murphy(D) leads Wrestling executive Linda McMahon (R) 65.0 - 35.0. Another new this week. Thus far she hasn't closed the race much, but she has lots of cash to put in the race. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 61.0 - 35.0. Nelson has extended his lead by about 8 points in the last week. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 56.8 - 43.2. Donnelly cuts Mourdock's lead to 13 from 20 points in a week. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Brown(D) leads Warren 57.2 - 42.8. And now the bad news. This was the only reversal for the week. A couple of polls came out that showed Brown leading and Intrade reacted. Brown went from trailing by 5 to leading by 14 in 1 week. Republican Hold
Michigan: Stabenow(D) leads Hoekstra 75.0 - 250.0. This one is new to the board, closing just a little in the last week to just beneath the 80% threshold. I doubt this is really a race at this point. Democratic Hold
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 66.6 - 33.4. McCaskill extends her lead by a couple more points this week. The only suspense here is whether Akin will stay on the ballot. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D) 61.9 - 38.1. Rehlberg continues to hold a solid lead. Republican Pickup
Nebraska: Fischer(R) leads Kerrey(D) 83.4 - 16.6. Kerrey still fading, now below the 20% cutoff. If no change in the next week it's off the board with you. Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 64.7 - 35.3. Heller still leading, but Berkley made up about 20 points this week. but I think that's mostly because of a a little more trading volume. Republican Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 74.8 - 28.6. Berg still looking strong. Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 58.0 - 42.0. Mandel made a small move this week, but he needs a lot more. Democratic Hold
Virginia: Allen(R) leads Kaine(D) 58.4 - 41.6. Not much change. Republican Pickup
Wisconsin: Thompson(D) leads Baldwin(R) 78.7 - 21.3. Thompson extends his lead. Getting close to an 'off the board' decision. Republican Pickup
Off the Board:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (R Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
So the current Intrade tally is 5 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin with an Independent pickup (Maine).
Final Tally:
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 51 Republicans - 49 Democrats (including 2 independents).