I follow pollster Nate Silver. He's smart and trustworthy.
Nate knows numbers. His methodology is solid. He uses Math and Statistics and his results have been accurate in the past. This year, too, he is the voice of reason whenever a poll comes out with a wacky result that contradicts what others say.
I know other DKos’ers follow Nate too, and I felt like spreading some cheer after last night’s episode of Le Théâtre du Grand-Guignol, also known as the Republican convention.
Today Nate gives President Obama a 71.6% chance of winning the election in November. This is good news and it means that the uptrend of the last week is extending into the duration of the GOP convention. The improvement in Obama’s numbers this week will be a cushion against any bounce for Romney, if it comes.
Here’s a summary recap of the President’s chance of winning according to Nate’s analysis:
• June 26 – July 2: The SCOTUS ACA Bounce. Obama’s chance of winning rose from 61.1% to 68.6%.
• July 3 – July 28: The summer doldrums. There was little movement in numbers for more than three weeks as Americans drifted off to their summer vacation haze.
• July 29 – Aug. 9: The Romney in Israel/You People bounce. Obama’s chance of winning rose from 66.4% to 73.3%.
• August 12 – August 22: The Ryan Bounce sent the President’s chance of winning into a temporary downtrend from 73.6% to 66.7%.
• August 22 – today: The Todd Akin Backlash Bounce. The President’s chance of winning rose from 66.7% to 71.6% which is where it stands today.
As of August 30, 2012, President Obama has a better than 51% chance of winning in the following 26 states plus DC.
Of the top 25 states in terms of income, 21 of them are in Obama’s column. Iowa, Maine, Ohio, Michigan, Florida, and New Mexico are the exceptions as bottom 25 states in terms of income in Obama’s column.
Of the bottom 10 states in terms of income, all of them are in the Republican column. They are Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Montana, South Carolina, and Louisiana.
It’s interesting to see alignment to a candidate by income but what could it mean? Republican public policy clearly favors the wealthy privileged few and there's a strong following for it in the states where people earn incomes that are lower than the national average.
The Republican platform is so unappealing it’s hard to imagine what attracts people to it. The Republicans blend some additives into their koolaid: religion, demonization of minorities, the Second Amendment, resentment, anger, and fear. I question whether enough Americans will get intoxicated on that brew this year to be competitive in a national election. It will be interesting to see the total number of votes cast in November. Compared to the 2008 election, it will most likely be fewer.
Although Nate Silver’s analysis today is optimistic, an emphatic word of caution is in order. The presidential and vice presidential debates have potential to change the outcome of an election in any year. There’s no reason to be complacent. Turnout matters. Vote the straight Democratic Party ticket. Let the opposition know clearly that the American people reject Republican nihilism. Even with Democratic Party victories in November, the privileged few pushing behind the Republicans won’t give up. You know this.