Traditionally, the weeks after announcing the Vice-Presidential pick, and the days after the convention are the high water mark in any presidential candidate's poll numbers. That means today is the likely high water mark of Mitt Romney's campaign.
On August 11th, the day Mitt Romney announced Paul Ryan as his VP, Nate Silver at 538 gave Obama a 71.6% chance of winning the election in November. Today, the high water mark of the Romney campaign, Nate gives Obama a 71.6% chance of winning the election in November. Today, TPM's polling average gives Obama +1.8 over Romney.
We shouldn't relax, but today, if Romney had any real chance of winning, we should be seeing his polling numbers well ahead of Obama. We should be seeing desperate cries of doom in the diaries, with multiple postings of the "oh noes!" guys.
But today, the likely high water mark for the Romney campaign, everyone is talking about Clint Eastwood and the "oh noes!" guys have left early for the long weekend.
Romney is fucked.