President Obama's odds of reelection climbed to 74.5 percent according to Nate's 538 prediction machine. That number mark's the high point for Obama since Nate began the forecast in May. The previous high was 73.6 percent on August 12.
After dipping to 66.7 on August 22 the odds have been moving our way. Since the start of the Republican convention the odds have moved up almost 6 points. Why the new record today? Primarily it's due to Romney's mini-bounce:
Our forecast model builds in an adjustment for the party conventions; it treats anything larger than a 4-point bounce as being a favorable sign for Mr. Romney, and anything smaller than that as being an unfavorable one.
This could change as we get more data, but for the time being it looks like Mr. Romney’s bounce will be a bit shy of that 4-point threshold. Thus, the forecast has moved toward Mr. Obama over the past few days; it now gives him a 74.5 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, his highest figure to date.
Nate's best guess so far, based on incomplete tracking data, is that Romney's bounce will be no more than 2 or 3 points. Gallup's tracker, for instance, has been stuck on 47 Obama, 46 Romney for days.
The bottom line for Nate? Stop it with the Reagan comparisons:
But the one eventuality we probably can take off the table is the notion that Mr. Romney would emerge from his convention with unmistakable momentum, as Ronald Reagan did in 1980 or Bill Clinton did in 1992. His bounce may turn out to be “just fine” once we see a few more polls, and how the numbers move after Charlotte. But Mr. Obama is unlikely to make it easy for Mr. Romney.