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Hi all,

Since it's the first working day of the new month, here's Nate's take on the state of the Presidential race.

Chance of Obama win: 74.8%. Up 5.5% in a week.
Predicted EC votes: 308.2 Up 9.2 in a week.
Predicted popular vote: 51.1 to 47.8
Return on Investment Indices: Nev=8.4, Ohio=6.7, Va=5.9, N.H.=5.3, Wis=4.9
Chance of Obama landslide: 8.5%.

Nevada: projected vote is 51.7 to 47.0, giving Obama a 79% chance
Ohio:  projected vote is 50.8 to 47.6, giving Obama a 72% chance
Virginia: projected vote is 51.3 to 48.7, giving Obama a 70% chance
New Hampshire: projected vote is 52.9 to 47.1, giving Obama an 80% chance
Wisconsin: projected vote is 51.7 to 47.4, giving Obama a 77% chance

Florida: projected vote is 50.2 to 48.9, giving Obama a 59% chance

Poll

And the take away is?

4%55 votes
5%74 votes
81%1031 votes
3%49 votes
1%13 votes
3%40 votes

| 1263 votes | Vote | Results

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