Skip to main content

Former White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove is seen at the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida August 27, 2012. Tropical Storm Isaac forced Republicans on Sunday to rewrite the script for their national convention in Tampa as party off
Not playing in Michigan or Pennsylvania.
The trees are apparently not the right height in Michigan, after all. Republican groups like the Koch brothers' Americans for Prosperity and Karl Rove's American Crossroads have stopped advertising there, as well as in Pennsylvania. Earlier in the year, Republicans insisted that Michigan, one of Mitt Romney's home states, was within reach. But now, as polls show President Barack Obama with solid leads in those states, it's a different story. Though outside groups have spent $10.9 million on anti-Obama or pro-Romney ads:
The last pro-Romney TV ad in Michigan was a $528,000 spot Restore Our Future political action committee bought last month during the Olympics touting the former Massachusetts governor's efforts to revive the fledgling 2002 Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City, Robinson said.
Various Republicans are insisting Michigan is still in play and that they'll be mounting a campaign there:
"Michigan is in play and we're going to continue to work hard here. It's a state that will get attention," Republican National Committee finance chairman Ron Weiser told The Detroit News. [...]

The Republicans met last week in Tampa, Fla., where deputy campaign director Katie Packer Gage told the Michigan delegation that Romney "will never pull out of Michigan."

Michigan will get attention—just not in the form of TV ad buys. Romney will never pull out of Michigan—but he won't actually put much in, either. Sure, if the polls suddenly swing toward Romney, Republican billionaires and their Super PACs could dive back in with big TV ad buys. But given that nasty ads are the Republican tactic for winning, their absence these days in Michigan and Pennsylvania says a lot about what Republican strategists see happening in those supposed swing states.

Originally posted to Laura Clawson on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:37 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  Even billionaires seem unwilling to just (14+ / 0-)

    light their money on fire. Look for pirate broadcasts coming in from the Cayman Islands and Bermuda soon.

    We have only just begun and none too soon.

    by global citizen on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:47:09 AM PDT

  •  In Grand Rapids, I see occasional TV ads but (14+ / 0-)

    there seem to be a lot of robo calls even after the debates were over, even picked up the phone one time to GACK hear Santorum.  Maybe 3 in the last 2 weeks currently.

    PS we make cars, we know where Michigan would be if Romney had his way, Michigan is not in play.

    Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

    by J Edward on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:50:11 AM PDT

  •  Republican TV ads have become so toxic (9+ / 0-)

    that to watch them requires special protective gear.

    After this election all these toxic ads need to be collected in special heavy plastic bags and deposited in approved hazardous waste dumps.

  •  I live here (19+ / 0-)

    they were pounding us before the GOP Convention but as of now...nothing,,nada HA HA!

    Obama's defining political trait is the belief that conciliatory rhetoric is a ruthless strategy

    by AAMOM on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:51:59 AM PDT

  •  If the unlimited money was really there (8+ / 0-)

    they would have no reason to pull out Michigan or Pennsylvania and they'd already have ads up in Wisconsin.  I wonder if Rove and AFP just talked a bigger game.  

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:53:08 AM PDT

    •  They're tacitly conceding the presidency (8+ / 0-)

      That's the only way to read this strategy.  Obama has had a huge steady 6 point lead in Ohio for months now.  If Romney loses Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio he has no realistic path to victory.  The only way for him to win would be to dump massive amounts of ads on soft Kerry states like Michigan and Wisconsin.

      The money isn't going there because they know Romney has already lost.  The money will instead go towards the Senate races and towards vulnerable House incumbents.

  •  It's the calm before the $1,000,000,000 storm (6+ / 0-)

    They're laying low in these states until about 2 weeks before the election, which is when they plan to unleash a billion dollar negative ad bomb. They hope to overwhelm the senses and hyp-mo-tize low-info voters, because Rove & Co. know that 'Muricans have extremely short memories and attention spans, and bright lights and loud noises can convince their mushy brains of just about anything.

    So enjoy the quiet, empty airwaves while you can, and brace for the category 15 hatestorm.


    (romney)/RYAN 2012 - REPEAL OBAMACHAIR!!!

    by Fordmandalay on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 07:54:20 AM PDT

    •  no shit. i agree! the calm before the shitstorm. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Romney/Ryan: I can't. I just can't.

      by stagemom on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:26:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Billionaire's won't throw good $ after bad $ (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Contra, Boise Grad, mdmslle, EcosseNJ, jds1978

      it'll be over by the last 2 weeks of the election. They won't waste a good billion bucks for a Romney Ego Trip

      80 % of success is showing up

      Corporate is not the solution to our problem

      Corporate is the problem

      by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:26:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I think they've conceded the White House (5+ / 0-)

        ...but think they still might be able to buy the Senate.  We can't let them.

        America, we can do better than this...

        by Randomfactor on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:29:23 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Don't Forget TV Ads Aren't The Only Thing In Play (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        murasaki, rhauenstein, Churchill

        in these states - the effort to disenfranchise Democratic voters is still in full swing by the GOP, and it could be enough to turn a state or two RMoney's way. My guess is, the billionaires are deploying their money to shore up vulnerable Republican Senate and House races, and try and take down as many vulnerable Congressional Dems as possible. Billionaires hate to throw away their money - unless they know they have a chance of winning, they will use their money in another state with a better return on their investment.

    •  It's not going to work if they dont do anything (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak, rosarugosa, cybersaur, mdmslle, ssgbryan

      until 2 weeks before.

      Polling is going in the wrong direction for them in both states. Ads are not going to shift 10% or more in two weeks. Ads are not going to make a difference except at the margins, and the law of diminishing returns will come into play long before a billion dollars is spent.

    •  It'll be too late, then. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Plus, you have to have ad buys in place.

      I think we give Karl Rove and his minions way too much credit sometimes.

      How about I believe in the unlucky ones?

      by BenderRodriguez on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:54:28 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I agree, as I have said somewhere else here. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. - Paul Krugman

      by Gentle Giant on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:05:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  2 weeks is probably too late (0+ / 0-)

      Studies show that the vast majority of people have made up their minds weeks if not months ahead of time.  Throwing a Hail Mary two weeks before the election is taking a hell of a risk.

    •  Except I'll have already voted by then. (0+ / 0-)

      And they fail to consider whatever shitstorm Obama will be releasing at the same time.

      Yesterday I read a news article about a "possible theft of Romney's tax return" from accounting firm. Secret service investigating. Accounting firm says no theft occurred.


      I'm also predicting a HARP 3.0 release before the election. It's been in the works for about 18 months and I wrote a diary about what my bank told me when I called about refinancing. Lastly, the cost of the government guarantees on the refinances is estimated at $4 billion. A fraction of the housing settlement amount from a year or so ago.

      If the GOP is planning ad bombs, I wish them luck. (OK no I don't). But they must realize they don't operate in a vacuum.

      For the record, I am not a member of Courtesy Kos. Just so you know. Don't be stupid. It's election season. My patience is short.

      by mdmslle on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:15:45 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I wrote about this in my last diary (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bear83, Scott Wooledge, Kinak, jds1978

    The Pennsylvania pullout did not indicate a tied election, and not playing in Michigan indicates weakness similar to 2008

  •  Meanwhile, in NC GOP ads are wall to wall (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Kinak, Boise Grad, jds1978

    which also says something about the state of the race.

    I love my DVR. I think their money is being wasted.

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 08:33:05 AM PDT

  •  I'm curious as to what is the Romney path to 270? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kinak, Scott Wooledge, jds1978

    It looks like he'll need to sweep FL, OH, WI and VA.

    From internal Dem polls it looks like OH may be heading into the out-of-reach category for Mittens as well.   If OH is out of the picture where does he make up for that?   It doesn't look like any single state could do the trick.

    Romney must know this one is over barring some miracle.  I wonder if we'll start seeing some hail mary's being thrown in the next couple of weeks.

    •  well.. (4+ / 0-)

      Florida is pretty much a must win.

      Without Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, or Ohio, he could win... if he won Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire - pretty much a sweep of every other swing state on the map.

      Wisconsin is definitely not needed, and I would think that if he wins that, they would have already won Ohio

    •  10 swing states now. (0+ / 0-)

      Romney needs FL, NC, CO, IA, WI, and then either OH or VA. I have him ahead in only FL and NC, although over the last months he has been catching up in the swing states, so another 1% move towards Romney in those states would make things look very different.

      Looking like NV and NH safe, and MI is right on the edge of being safe. But I don't want to say that yet. Anyhow, take those three off the table, and you're right, Romney pretty much needs to run the rest, except he can afford to lose either OH or VA.

      Mark E. Miller // Kalamazoo Township Trustee // MI 6th District Democratic Chair

      by memiller on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 01:43:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  A late summer hiatus isn't really a pullout is it? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jakewaters, Gentle Giant

    If the Repubs are really "pulling out" of PA and MI, they're essentially conceding, which I doubt is the case. They could be suckering the Dems into complacency or keeping their powder dry for the campaign that begins after the Dem convention. The analysis seems overly optimistic to me.

    Two hundred million Americans, and there ain't two good catchers among 'em. --Casey Stengel

    by LongTom on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 09:31:16 AM PDT

  •  "One of his home states"! (9+ / 0-)


    The braying sheep on my TV screen make this boy shout -- make this boy scream -- I'm going underground...

    by jamfan on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 09:34:56 AM PDT

  •  I'm not nervous about Michigan, but... (4+ / 0-)'s notable that both Obama and Biden were in the metro Detroit area (Toledo's only an hour away) on Labor Day.

    •  Michigan is a good one to be sure (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      rosarugosa, distraught

      they keep in their pocket. Not only because it has relatively large electoral college vote count, but it's also symbolic of particular voter that Obama/Biden need to keep close: blue collar, rust belt, ... ("real Americans"--barf).

      Keeping numbers high in Michigan sends a signal to Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, a whole host of states...

      I'd be working to keep a strong showing in a state like that.

      Doubly so since Mitt's claiming it as a "home state" so there's some embarrassment involved.

      You're not being "oppressed" when another group gains rights you've always enjoyed.

      by Scott Wooledge on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:03:18 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  If they know they're losing Ohio, then (4+ / 0-)

    they have no choice but to go hard after Michigan.

    Romney's path to electoral victory without Ohio would require him win the following Obama 2008 swing states:

    Indiana (very likely)
    North Carolina (probable)
    Florida (possible)
    Colorado (possible)
    Virginia (possible, but looking bad for him)

    And even with that, it's Obama 281 Romney 257.

    So where else can Romney pick up the votes?

    Well, Wisconsin seems the next most likely target, given it's Ryan's home state.  So if he can pick it off (which seems a big if, considering it's history in the past 20 years of Presidential Elections), that still gives us Obama 271 and Romney 267.

    So where else can Romney make up those 3 EVs?  Either New Hampshire or Iowa would do it, but it doesn't look good for him in either state at this point.  Plus, he needs a safety net should Virginia or Colorado not go his way.  Michigan really is the only answer, as it has 16 EVs and offers him a cushion should he not win one of those.  

    I don't think Romney has any other choice but to try and win Michigan at this point.  Exactly how he can win it, given "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt," I don't know.  But at this point, I'd consider it almost a must-win for him.

    •  No way Virginia. (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Kinak, Scott Wooledge, EcosseNJ

      Take away Ras polling and Virginia is not really in play. It's closer then other Obama states, but not enough for Romney. Add in Virgil Goode third party and it's a done deal.

      If I knew it was going to be that kind of party, I'd have stuck my ---- in the mashed potatoes! - Paul's Boutique

      by DoctorWho on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:30:26 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  A very interesting assessment. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      As most conventions, though possibly entertaining, are still a lot like preaching to the choir.  I'm waiting for the debates. I haven't seen the dates for the first so I hope I can find out somewhere online. I'm going to Europe for two weeks, so I may have to DVR the first one and rely on the BBC and CNN international for the updates.

      "Jeder nach seinen Fähigkeiten, jedem nach seinen Bedürfnissen!" oder "From each according to his ability, to each according to his need"

      by drpmeade on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:35:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Romney can't win his HOME STATE ROFLMFAO (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, Scott Wooledge

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:24:19 AM PDT

  •  They'll kill the down ballot GOPpers (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, jakewaters

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:24:37 AM PDT

  •  Romney will lose 4 of his 5 home states (15+ / 0-)

    Sprawling vacation compound in New Hampshire, Villa in Malibu, Post Office Box in Michigan, his son's basement in Massachusetts...none of them will get him those electoral votes. Thank god for the ski chalet / survivalist redoubt in Utah.

    Now, if we let the Cayman Islands vote get counted, that's another story.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:24:39 AM PDT

  •  So what part of "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" (9+ / 0-)

    is not going over well in Mitt's home state [sic] of Michigan?

    The CNN website is doing a new level of concern trolling against Obama.  Earlier this week the worry was that Clinton would go rogue and give only a tepid endorsement of Obama. Today, in the face of last night's barnburner of an endorsement, CNN is saying that Obama is worried about a "reverse Eastwood effect", meaning the Clinton has upstaged whatever Obama intends to say.

    The idiocy of CNN sometimes re-assuring, from the network that called the SC decision on ACA wrong for a full 10 minutes.

  •  Romney's a robot, Bill can emote & feel your pain (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:28:02 AM PDT

  •  Are down ticket candidates telling Romney to stay (7+ / 0-)

    away?  "Look,'re fucked and you know it.  We don't need you dragging us down. Go campaign in Texas and Oklahoma...those states are safe for down ticket Republicans."

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right. I'm riding for MS in September. Please donate here if you can.

    by darthstar on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:28:05 AM PDT

  •  Bill comes threw the screen and persuades voters (0+ / 0-)

    80 % of success is showing up

    Corporate is not the solution to our problem

    Corporate is the problem

    by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:28:38 AM PDT

  •  This race is not close. GOP campaigns don't just (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, dpinzow, Scott Wooledge, EcosseNJ

    pull out of key states this early.

    What the Romney campaign polling is telling them is that the electorate is much more Democratic than 2010.  That puts a state like PA and MI out of reach because of the registration advantage that Dems have.  Romney is also underperforming McCain among key GOP favorable demos like the 65+ vote in these states.

    What Romney will do is double down in places like Iowa, NH, CO, VA, FL where the registration advantage is not as strong (or where he can depend on a higher percentage of registered Dems voting for him), and where Indies play a more decisive role in determining elections.

    Romney will also pour money into Ohio and go scorched earth there because frankly, it still remains the most important tipping point state in this election.

    With August's jobs report looking relatively robust, I think it may put VA out of reach of Romney.  FL will be a dog fight, but even there I see the Ryan plan putting a ceiling on his vote.  NC is gravy, but I think the demographics work for Obama if the race is tight.

    As for the impact of this convention, I think independent voters and midwestern voters will gravitate to Obama.  The speeches the Dems have given play very well in Iowa, Wisconsin, and Ohio.  Wisconsin will be well out of reach of the GOP after our convention.  That puts a serious dent in Romney's electoral strategy.  Iowa too will shift to the President.  In CO, Obama's relatively large share of the white vote puts a ceiling on what Romney can do.  

    Alternative rock with something to say:

    by khyber900 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:30:18 AM PDT

    •  Especially when they have this much $ (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Scott Wooledge

      It would make no sense to not play in PA and MI if the race were tied nationally and the GOP has the money advantage

    •  like Huckleberry R-SC said (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      We are not generating enough angry white guys to stay in business for the long term
      It's demographics, which pushed the unionist and republican forces together in Belfast. JAG Graham sees something similar here.

      Mostly the appeal is to the no-college guy, but the new solar and wind jobs in Iowa and Oklahoma require an AA degree. Funny, how some of the "failed" stimulus worked out.

      Pray for the dead and fight like hell for the living~~Mother Jones

      by CA Berkeley WV on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:04:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  deploy Bill Clinton in Florida (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      to keep explainin' how Romney/Ryan would end Medicare as we know it.  Also to quell Jewish voter uneasiness about Israel/Iran.  Florida would go Blue again and the election would be over.

  •  Per Nate Silver: 94% for Obama win in Michigan (9+ / 0-)

    Yeah, Republicans are going to try to win there when they absolutely have to win




    North Carolina...

    etc etc etc....

  •  This is the same putz who thought (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    His guy Bush could win New Jersey and California! This country would be better off if this SOB and those like him didn't exist.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:32:32 AM PDT

  •  This is "No Decision has been Made" Corporate-Ese (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JeffW, jds1978

    When in fact the decision has been made months ago but the powers that be haven't figured out how to sell it yet....

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:32:38 AM PDT

  •  The Republican focus groups... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    ...exceeded their threshold of annoyance!

    Float like a manhole cover, sting like a sash weight! Clean Coal Is A Clinker!

    by JeffW on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:33:59 AM PDT

  •  Sen Levin was just on NPR's (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Churchill, JeffW

    Here and Now show.

    he stated new poll out indicating 3 out of 4 non voters would vote for Obama, IF they were voting.


    this gets back to my earlier points regarding how the democratic party is not doing enough to motivate voters, and the rock bottom approval rating of the deadbeats in congress isn't helping at all.

    this may not matter in Michigan, but sure as heck matters in Ohio were last time Obama won by around 107,000 votes; hardly a large margin

    "A civilization which does not provide young people with a way to earn a living is pretty poor". Eleanor Roosevelt

    by Superpole on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:34:06 AM PDT

    •  Obama's '08 margin Ohio 262,000, FLA 236,000 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      OHIO (20-EV)          Obama            McCain      TOTAL
      Popular vote        2,940,044      2,677,820    5,617,864  

      FLORIDA (27-EV)           Obama           McCain             Total
      Popular vote              4,282,074       4,045,624        

      80 % of success is showing up

      Corporate is not the solution to our problem

      Corporate is the problem

      by Churchill on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:40:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Virginia is looking GOODE! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    IM, Kinak, DSPS owl

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right. I'm riding for MS in September. Please donate here if you can.

    by darthstar on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:35:20 AM PDT

  •  Nate Silver overall %s, even before the Democratic (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Convention bounce mean things don't look good for team Romney. If democrats hold Michigan and Pa., and add Virginia and Ohio, they're at 287/288 even if Indiana, NC, Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa go red (rather unlikely).

    With Florida, Wisc., and Iowa it's 332/333.

    Senate could go anywhere from 49-55 Democrats and Independents.

    "A young man who wishes to remain a sound Atheist cannot be too careful of his reading. There are traps everywhere ". C. S. Lewis

    by TofG on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:35:46 AM PDT

  •  Turns out Citizen's United isn't invincible (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Churchill, JeffW, rdbaker43, EcosseNJ, jds1978

    The threat has been that the xxxillionaires could launch a massive negative ad buy just before the election and push their candidate over the finish line.

    Sooner or later it will happen, if CU is allowed to stand.

    But not in this cycle. The xxxillionaires know better than to throw good money after bad. The same spreadsheet business calculus that Mitt used to dismember American companies is now biting him in the ass.

    The trick is to get a head start and make their "investment" look bad. Then push hard make it look even worse.

    Their money will stay home.

    Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

    by grapes on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:37:12 AM PDT

    •  CU is a bigger threat congressionally (9+ / 0-)

      The flood of money will move house races, not the top of the ticket. That is where we need boots on the ground.

      •  You are right (0+ / 0-)

        Hopefully growing strength at the top of the ticket will translate into some coat-tails down ticket.

        I suspect it will all depend on what happens in the last few weeks. If Obama has a solid lead, he can pivot and focus on  helping down ticket. If it closes and he is fighting for his life, then everyone has to fight to make sure he stays in the WH. We can't lose the WH, no matter what.

        I didn't mean to suggest that CU is not a problem ... it is a huge, massive problem. However, I think there is hope that it can be overcome in this cycle.

        Maturity: Doing what you know is right - even though you were told to do it

        by grapes on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:46:27 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I agree (0+ / 0-)

          I think that money is the #1 problem with American politics today, and there is no getting around the corruption that is now is openly breeding. I do, however, think many on the left overreacting in their handwringing that it would be the death of Democrats everywhere. Clearly that is not happening, and its not because of lack of trying on the part of RW SuperPACs

      •  And, I think, in non-incumbent elections (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MRobDC, Kinak

        Obama's relatively safe, I think, because he's been in the national spotlight on a daily basis for four years.  It might be more difficult in years in which we run relative unknowns that can be defined by paid media.

        The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

        by rfahey22 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:51:07 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  THIS (0+ / 0-)
      The same spreadsheet business calculus that Mitt used to dismember American companies is now biting him in the ass.
      deserves a top quote of the day...or the election.

      Citing the Bible as proof of God is like citing comic books to prove the existence of Superman. (h/t to Stevie Ray Fromstein @

      by rdbaker43 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:20:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  You know (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Churchill, Kinak

    The spectre of Rove and the Kochs dumping bazillions of dollars on this campaign isn't really materializing like I thought it would.

    They're not soaking PA or MI with bald-faced lies anymore? Sounds kinda miserly. How much have they spent on ad buys so far? Are we sure Rove isn't just soaking up huge donations and then hoarding it in some kind of quasi-legal money laundering scheme? I just get the feeling that the "$100million+" he said he was going to spend isn't even close to accurate.

  •  You need to understand the "new" GOP mindset. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    The penny-pinching party already knows that just about everyone who's going to vote for Romney/Ryan have already decided to do so, so why bother with dropping huge sums on ads?  They're going with the "new" model:  Spend whatever it takes to disenfranchise anti-R/R voters by purging as many as possible from the registered-voter lists.  How much does it cost to have one person sit down and wipe out a hundred thousand names with the stroke of a keyboard?  Now, extrapolate that from one corrupt lackey in one county office to include every location where this could affect the outcome of the November election.

    I count even the single grain of sand to be a higher life-form than the likes of Sarah Palin and her odious ilk.

    by Liberal Panzer on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:43:57 AM PDT

  •  Caution: Watch for Electoral Dirty Tricks (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rosarugosa, rhauenstein

    Hate to be a buzz kill, but when I saw the pull out from Pennsylvania, my first thought (of theirs) was "Don't worry, Voter ID has got this"   I've got the same gut feeling in my stomach on Michigan.

    Maybe it's just having been in this fight so long, and the results of Ohio 2004 and Florida 2000 that have me feeling this way.

    Nice to see Nate Silver's numbers however.

    Republicans: They hate us for our Freedom.

    by mikeconwell on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:44:08 AM PDT

  •  Yayyyyyy that means we'll be spared a lot of (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    the true nastiness.

    Sorry for the states about to get really slammed.

    Nothing in the world is more dangerous than a sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity. Martin Luther King, Jr.

    by maybeeso in michigan on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:44:26 AM PDT

  •  Hello, Citizens United (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Kinak, jds1978

    The Romney campaign and Rove's SuperPAC decide to pull out of two states, on the same day.

    But they're not coordinating at all, because that would be illegal.

    No doubt the Federal Election Commission will investigate, and send a strongly worded letter.  Next spring.

  •  "floating" with Michigan (0+ / 0-)

    Mounting a campaign...
    Not pulling out... all makes perverse sense now

    (-9,-9) pragmatic incrementalist :-P

    by Enterik on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:45:34 AM PDT

  •  The Blitz (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Like Londoners during World War II, Americans under assault from negative ads on their TVs every hour or every day just tune it out and go about their day-by-day business.
    It's no surprise to me that those who think money is everything decide to keep their precious dollars when there is no impact.
    They will invest it instead in Congressional races to try to hold the House and gain the Senate.
    Good luck with that...

  •  Will there still be airspace? (0+ / 0-)
    Republican billionaires and their Super PACs could dive back in with big TV ad buys
    I think it's pretty possible in the next 4 weeks other campaigns, including but not limited to OFA, could purchase the lion's share of prime airtime leaving Romney and his backers boxed out, buying midnight time on Spike TV and Lifetime network.

    You're not being "oppressed" when another group gains rights you've always enjoyed.

    by Scott Wooledge on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:53:43 AM PDT

  •  Clinton tells the Truth, Rove lies with OPM (0+ / 0-)

    Bill Clinton told the Truth last night.

    Karl Rove has made a career telling lies by spending other people's money.  The American People, maybe even some members of the Tea Party, will wake up and decide that it's time to quit listening to GOP lies.

    GOPocrisy and RomneyNomics can't get us out of the hole that they put us in.  

    Democratic Policies make Middle Class wage earners consumers and that creates jobs.  Arithmetic works wonders.

    Dick Cheney said, "Pi$$ on 'em!" And, Ronald Reagan replied, "That's a Great Idea. Let's Call it 'Trickle Down Economics!"

    by NM Ray on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:55:56 AM PDT

  •  the paranoia in me says (0+ / 0-)

    they could be pulling back resources for a particularly strong onslaught with something nasty right up against the elections in an effort to deprive the democrats of time to respond sufficiently.
    The optimist in me says they are giving up because they don't think they can win after their voter suppression efforts failed.

    I like the optimist in me. I'd kick the paranoia in me in the cajones, but he'd be expecting it and my legs don't bend that way anymore.

    I believe in democracy, civil liberties, and the rule of law. That makes me a liberal, and I’m proud of it. - Paul Krugman

    by Gentle Giant on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 10:59:32 AM PDT

  •  Maybe They're Not Worried due toDisenfranchisement (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Did anyone consider that maybe they think they have MI and PA "in the bag" because they will have thrown enough voters off the rolls that no amount of Dem spending can overcome it?

  •  hadn't rove just abandoned New Mexico (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MRobDC, ssgbryan

    to focus on Michigan?

    methinks the GOP sails might have holes in them.  But hey, Karl, you promised to raise a billion to beat go ahead.  Maybe try California this time.  Or NY.  They are high value targets and easily within reach, ((-:)wink(:-))

    This all goes back to the laughingstock of stock the elephants trotted out for the primary season.  A nobody from Minnesota.  Another Mormon to split the necessary Mormon vote.  A Clarence Thomas pizza maker.  A Dubya Bush clone.  Two whacked out congressmeatpuppets each trying to put the Craz in Crazy.  A former philandering Speaker and some dimwit vulture capitalist who claims God told him he'd be Prez.

    Instead of saying none of the above the flunkies went with the dimwit capitalist behind door number irrelevant.  

    There platform?  Obama bad, capitalism good.  Obama bad, tax cuts good.  Obama bad, health care bad.  Obama bad, free women bad.  Obama bad, non-whiter than white people illegal alien/welfare queens---super duper uber badbad.  

    Their rhetoric.  "Obama (insert lie) and we love freedom and we don't punish success...except for those who don't fit our lily white god fearing worldview."


    But I, being poor, have only my dreams; I have laid my dreams under your feet; tread softly, because you tread on my dreams. – Yeats

    by Bill O Rights on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:00:23 AM PDT

  •  As You Reminded Us Recently, Karl, (0+ / 0-)

    campaigns are about numbers.  And your man's numbers stink.

  •  Doesn't Romney/Rnc have to wait post-convention... (0+ / 0-)

    To spend most of the money they've raised over the last few months?  I'd expect to see huge spending outlays announced soon, perhaps even Michigan....

  •  Maybe they should try to humanize Mitt some more. (0+ / 0-)

    It worked so well the last time, or to quote bubbanomics, "HAHAHAHAHAHAHAA!"

    Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right. I'm riding for MS in September. Please donate here if you can.

    by darthstar on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:03:09 AM PDT

  •  this is surprising (0+ / 0-)

    Not surprised that they pulled their ads in PA, where Obama has maintained a fairly big lead.  But all of the recent MI polls showed it to be pretty close there.  I wonder if there is new polling coming out that shows something different?  And it seems like they have enough money to piss away in just about any state.

    •  Romney's internal polling (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      is telling a far different story than the skewed "Mitchell Research" polls showing a neck and neck race. Otherwise he'd be inundating the state.

      He's probably 8-10 points down in MI just like in PA. Remember his pollsters are better than the polls we see, they can't bullshit him

  •  soon they will have nowhere to spend their $$ (0+ / 0-)
  •  agreed (0+ / 0-)

    mich & penn are swing states, their banners are swinging from the rafters at the dem convention as we speak.

  •  Are the Koch Bros and Adelman getting chintzy? (0+ / 0-)

    Here I thought they would spend like there was no tomorrow.

    Could it be they have started to recognize this is a lost cause?

    -9.00, -5.85
    Quite an experience to live in fear, isn't it? That's what it means to be a slave.

    by Wintermute on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 11:34:30 AM PDT

  •  They make things up, they lie, they subvert (0+ / 0-)

    they sabotage how the hell do we know what they are going to do?  They will tell you one thing while they are doing the other. Serious journalist would be more helpful if they quit playing the polls and money and help the voters understand the issues inside out.  Karl Rove doesn't have any more insight into what voters are going to do than does Nate Silver no matter how many polls he runs.  Voters will make decisions based on what they understand and hear, and if we are continually given nonsense answers for serious issues we are going to vote for nonsense politicians.

    We need facts not fantasies, we need consequences of A and not fairy tales of B.

    Frankly I would like to see Remoney and Ryan drop off the cliff right along with their lemmings.

  •  The War of Attrition ... (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know that I buy that Romney/Ryan is pulling out of Michigan. I agree with the fact that this may be a calm before the storm.

    Total War is a war of attrition and even if Romney doesn't win Michigan, every dollar he and the Super PACs spend in Michigan is one less dollar the President and DNC can spend in other swing states.

    If the fundraising winner is the Rs, there's no reason to abandon Michigan. Just calling 'em how I see 'em.

    •  That depends on Obama falling for it (0+ / 0-)

      That's only a good strategy if Obama needs to spend money defending Michigan.  If in fact Michigan is a lost cause for Romney, and Obama knows it, then he won't spend another dime there no matter how much money Romney wastes there.  It would make perfect sense to abandon Michigan if both sides know how that state will come out (and each campaign knows that the other knows this).

      The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

      by rfahey22 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 02:02:10 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MI hasn't voted for a red President since (0+ / 0-)

    I don't know win.  Every Dem including Kerry has taken MI since Clinton at least.  

    They are going to dump their money into the ballot initiatives, and there are a ton of them.  

    "bin Laden's dead, and GM is alive" ~ Biden

    by dkmich on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 01:42:43 PM PDT

  •  So now what's going on in Ohio? (0+ / 0-)

    Romney clearly can't afford to abandon that state, so why is he apparently off the air there right now?

    The pleasure of hating...eats into the heart of religion...[and] makes patriotism an excuse for carrying fire, pestilence, and famine into other lands. - W. Hazlitt

    by rfahey22 on Thu Sep 06, 2012 at 01:59:24 PM PDT

  •  Let me ask... (0+ / 0-)

    what if all of the promises of money that the billionaires made were more of a head fake than anything else?  What if it was more designed to try and throw the Democrats off their game than anything else?

    Given the virtually unlimited amounts that they claim that they have at their disposal, I can't see why they would bother to pull out of any state.

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site