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9:23 AM PT: WATN?: Johnny Longtorso brings us this amazing report:

Remember Hudson Hallum, the awesomely-named victor in a special election to the Arkansas House in July of last year? Well, he's one his way to another house—the jailhouse. And he did it in the classiest way possible, by buying votes through booze and food.

This is, of course, after his predecessor in the seat resigned after pleading guilty to theft charges. And interestingly, it could lead to the second Green Party legislative victory in Arkansas, as his resignation and withdrawal from the race has left the Green candidate the only one on the ballot.

9:57 AM PT (David Jarman): NJ-Sen: It may seem counterintuitive, but I'm a little disappointed to see Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez posting double-digit leads in the polling of this year's New Jersey Senate race. I'd rather see it in the high single-digits, not enough to really start worrying, but enough to lure in the NRSC and get them bogged down once again in the New Jersey tar pit that always seems tantalizing but never pays off. At any rate, we've got another NJ-Sen poll in the low-double-digits range, this time from Rutgers/Eagleton, who peg the race at 47 for Menendez and 35 for Republican challenger Joe Kyrillos. (Their previous poll was way back in February and gave Menendez a 44-22 lead over the then-unknown Kyrillos.) The strange post-script to this poll is that the field dates were Aug. 23-25, meaning they've been sitting on the data for a couple weeks now. That led the Kyrillos camp to put out a huffy-sounding press release this morning calling the Rutgers poll "irrelevant."

10:06 AM PT (David Jarman): CA-47: Our Steve Singiser so thoroughly laid waste to this poll in Thursday's Polling Wrap that I'm not sure anything more needs to be said. If you didn't see it, though, the campaign of Republican Gary DeLong in the Long Beach-based open seat is out with a poll that pushes the limits of credulity, not simply because of the toplines, which have him leading Dem Alan Lowenthal 53-44 (in a district that went 58% Obama, and where Lowenthal just released an internal poll showing him leading by 20, forcing DeLong to scramble to push back). The real problem here is that DeLong's poll was taken way back in June 28-July 3 by Probolsky Research... and DeLong previously released a poll, also taken June 28-July 3 by Probolsky Research, that had him trailing by 3. So, either DeLong's camp took the absolutely bizarre approach of having two completely different samples in the field at the same time and then releasing the poorer results of the two -- or else he went back, juiced the results somehow, re-reported them, and hoped no one would notice the dates.

10:11 AM PT (David Jarman): MO-Sen: I've been a little skeptical of the idea that pullout by the national organizations will doom Todd Akin in Missouri. I mean, leave the two major cities and you're basically in Alabama; it's a red-enough state he can say all manner of crazy crap and still stay within arm's length of 50%+1. Nevertheless, if Akin can't even afford to air his own ads, he might really be DOA. That's exactly what's happening now, though, as stations across the state are now cancelling his ad buys because his campaign hasn't been, you know, paying for them. For what it's worth, the Akin camp says it was a "scheduling mistake" and the proverbial check is in the mail. Don't get prematurely happy about this, though, because it could still be the last straw that changes Akin's mind and forces him to withdraw while the window is still open.

10:15 AM PT (David Jarman): IL-08: You know how the ladies are, always gabbing about shoes and suchlike. (At least in Joe Walsh's world...)

“Ms. Duckworth has continued to show more interest in rubbing elbows with big name party insiders, then [SIC] staying home and tackling the tough issues facing voters in the district," he said in a statement on his website. "It has become abundantly clear that at this point the only debate Ms. Duckworth is actually interested in having is which outfit she’ll be wearing for her big speech."

10:32 AM PT (David Jarman): TN-04: Hmmm, this may be a first: a Republican in a competitive race choosing to lash himself to the Ryan budget. In response to Democratic opponent Eric Stewart's references to the "Paul Ryan/Scott DesJarlais plan for Medicare," in an op-ed for the Chattanoogan, DesJarlais just appropriates that, saying "I’m proud of my vote for the Ryan Budget and if they want to call it the Ryan/DesJarlais plan, that is just fine by me." It's worth noting that this is one of the reddest districts in the country to host a competitive House race (36% Obama), so he may figure there are enough die-hards in the district who aren't paying attention to the policy implications that he doesn't have much to lose by showing his true colors.

11:00 AM PT (Steve Singiser): NC-Gov: SurveyUSA is out with new numbers today on behalf of the right-wing Civitas Institute, and it looks like SUSA is back to its accustomed role of providing crosstabs that absolutely no one with any credibility will ever take as plausible. The toplines show Republican Pat McCrory with a double-digit edge over Democrat Walter Dalton (55-39). Everyone has had McCrory leading, so that's not the problem (though this margin is unusually wide).

The problem with this poll is that SUSA is asking us to believe that McCrory is such a beloved figure that he is getting a third of Democratic voters, and one-third of African-American voters. That'd be a minor uptick for McCrory from 2008, when he got exactly three percent of the black vote.

12:13 PM PT: Race Ratings: For this week's batch of ratings adjustments, we're changing one gubernatorial race and 10 House contests. Five moves are in favor of the GOP and six in favor of Democrats.

ND-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): North Dakota Democrats did very well recruiting for statewide races this cycle, but state Sen. Ryan Taylor didn't wind up quite as lucky as his counterparts running for House and Senate. Those races turned out to be open seats, but GOP Gov. Jack Dalrymple decided to run for another term. Dalrymple was never elected governor in the first place; he assumed office in 2010 when then-Gov. John Hoeven was elected to the Senate. Still, though, he's the incumbent in a red state, Taylor appears to be short on cash, and there's no sign the DGA has any interest in getting involved, so we're not seeing any path to victory.

CD-39 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrat Jay Chen, a member of a local school board, a Navy veteran, and a small businessman, offers an intriguing profile for the redrawn 39th District, especially since about a quarter of the voting population is Asian. And a very early internal hinted at some promise. But this is still the tenth-reddest seat in California, and GOP Rep. Ed Royce is a pretty powerful figure in his own party and a strong fundraiser. National Democrats have shown little interest in this race, but a respectable performance by Chen should set him up well for future opportunities.

CD-45 (Likely R to Safe R): Similarly to the above, Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang also looked like an interesting prospect for Democrats. Irvine's a pretty populous city (over 200K), and Kang would be only the second Korean-American ever elected to Congress. However, CA-45 is even redder than the 39th, and the 45th is only about 15% Asian by voting population. If demographic trends go our way, this district may prove fruitful some day. But this cycle, the DCCC and other outside groups aren't getting involved here, and GOP Rep. John Campbell looks safe.

CO-04 (Likely R to Safe R): State Senate President Brandon Shaffer looked like an excellent recruit to take on freshman GOP Rep. Cory Gardner... until redistricting. Colorado's new court-drawn map, held by Democrat Betsy Markey just a cycle ago, turned the 4th from a swing district to a conservative seat that went to John McCain by 15 points. Shaffer released an implausible internal poll some weeks back, but just how unconcerned is Gardner? His entire website is nothing more than a splash page. Cocky, yes. But there just doesn't seem to be any path to victory for Shaffer.

CO-07 (Likely D to Lean D): While none of us believed Joe Coors' internal poll, money is another thing. He's got a lot of it, and Democrats (via the House Majority PAC) have jumped in here early and big to try to blunt it. While we still expect Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter to return for the 113th Congress, we can't ignore the fact that it looks like we've got a live one here.

FL-09 (Lean D to Likely D): Republicans hoped that Osceola County Commissioner John Quinones might sneak through the primary, but he evidently never had much of a shot, judging by the final tally. For good measure, though, Democrats helped ratfuck the contest on behalf of oddball attorney Todd Long. While ex-Rep. Alan Grayson always makes us nervous, he has huge sums of cash and, should he ever need it, can tap his enormous personal wealth. Long, meanwhile, has less than $4,000 in the bank and national Republicans aren't going to bother with a joker like that.

FL-18 (Lean R to Tossup): We started this race off as Lean R on account of Rep. Allen West's fundraising prowess and celebrity, in addition to the fact that Democrat Patrick Murphy is a young, first-time candidate. But two unanswered Democratic polls have shown the race a dead heat, and Murphy's proven to be a strong fundraiser himself. This is a very swingy district (Obama won by 3, GOP Gov. Rick Scott won by 2), with very few remaining undecided voters, and the battle lines have been drawn.

FL-26 (Lean R to Tossup): A recruiting debacle early in the cycle turned out to have a silver lining, as Democrats were able to re-recruit Joe Garcia, probably the strongest opponent for GOP Rep. David Rivera. This race has become so competitive in large part because of Rivera's longstanding, serious ethical troubles, and he's added to his rap sheet by supporting a phony candidate in the Democratic primary whose only purpose was attack Garcia. The authorities have opened criminal probes into the matter, which loom Damoclean over Rivera's head. What's more, Garcia recently released an internal poll giving him a nine-point lead over the incumbent. Even if that spread is overly rosy, it augurs toward tossup status, especially since Rivera had no response at all.

MA-04 (Likely D to Safe D): A young, first-time candidate with a family surname that brings out strong emotions on both sides moves into a newly-open district to run for Congress... well, under any other circumstances, you might be concerned that this fellow could potentially stumble. Hence, out of an abundance of caution, we put this race on our big board. But Joseph P. Kennedy III, who is looking to succeed Barney Frank, has proven to be an adept campaigner and a monster fundraiser. And at just 31, he could have as long a career in Congress as he likes.

MN-08 (Lean R to Tossup): Perhaps no rating of ours has generated more controversy than this one. We long worried about candidate quality, especially since the Democratic primary got dragged out into an expensive affair. While we probably emerged with the best nominee in the form of ex-Rep. Rick Nolan, his fundraising's been week, despite earning establishment backing from top to bottom. What's more, while Minnesota as a whole got considerably bluer from 2004 to 2008, this district stood still, which had us concerned about Obama's appeal here. But two Democratic polls last week showed Nolan just edging GOP freshman Chip Cravaack, and Cravaack's whiny response couldn't have been weaker.

NY-04 (Likely D to Safe D): After a close-ish shave last cycle and a slightly rejiggered district that became a bit redder, we put Dem Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's seat on our list out of an abundance of caution. But her opponent, 2010 nominee Fran Becker, has raised bupkes. In a wave year for Republicans, who knows what could happen. But this is no wave year, and Becker's getting ignored.

1:10 PM PT: WI-Sen: Ah, gay-baiting. Wondered when Wisconsin Republicans would finally get around to that. Well, wondering time is over:

The political director for U.S. Senate campaign of former Gov. Tommy Thompson highlighted his opponent's participation in a gay pride event and criticized her ability to discuss "heartland values."

Thompson, a Republican, is running against U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who if elected would become the nation's first openly gay senator. [...]

The email included a link to a video of Baldwin dancing in 2010 with the costumed disco band VO5 playing the "Wonder Woman" theme. Baldwin, wearing sunglasses, dances on stage with the band and at the end hugs the singer, who is dressed like the comic book hero Wonder Woman.

1:52 PM PT: FL-26: Uh, wtf?

A key witness in the federal investigation against U.S. Rep. David Rivera failed to show up for an interview with prosecutors and FBI agents, and her family says they are worried of her whereabouts.

Ana Alliegro, a campaign manager for former Democratic congressional candidate Justin Lamar Sternad, is at the center of the federal probe of Sternad and Rivera. FBI agents are investigating whether the Republican congressman used Alliegro to secretly fund Sternad's primary race against Rivera's longtime rival, Joe Garcia. Garcia easily won the Aug. 14 primary.

Alliegro never showed up to give a statement to investigators. She had been scheduled to testify Thursday before a federal grand jury in Fort Lauderdale, but her lawyer Mauricio Padilla worked out a deal to speak directly to investigators.

But if you read on, you'll find that Alliegro's mother, who claims she is "very worried," hasn't bothered to file a missing persons report.

2:20 PM PT: Ads:

ME-Sen: Independent ex-Gov. Angus King's first ad touts (what else?) his independence. Weirdly, the first 15 seconds of the ad involve zooming in from outer space all the way down to King's hometown of Brunswick via Google Earth... and then he pops out from under some trees. It's like Google Maps has sprung to life!

MO-Sen: Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill can barely conceal her glee that she wound up exactly at number 50 on the National Journal's ideology ratings for the U.S. Senate.

ND-Sen: An elderly breast cancer survivor says she wouldn't be alive without Medicare and excoriates GOP Rep. Rick Berg for supporting the Ryan plan in this new Heidi Heitkamp spot. (Heitkamp herself has fought breast cancer.)

OH-Sen: Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown slams Josh Mandel for his endless series of brazen lies, citing the many reporters, columnists, and fact-checkers who have repeatedly called Mandel out.

2:37 PM PT: Ads:

IL-12: The conservative YG Action Fund is deploying two more ads, in addition to the MA-06 spot they released on Thursday. This one attacks retired Gen. Bill Enyart for having "little private sector experience"—I love it when Republicans degrade military service. They also try to call him a "Blagojevich appointee." The ad is backed by a hefty $541K buy. (And incidentally, the MA-06 buy is for a massive $900K.)

MD-06: Democrat John Delaney tries to cram a ton of points into this one 30-second spot, mostly involving pushback against attacks by GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, and also dinging the incumbent's voting record on a variety of fronts.

NC-07: Here's that other YG Action Fund spot (also for a $541K run), and it's proof once again that no matter how conservative you try to make your voting record, Republicans will find a way to hit you. In this case, even though Rep. Mike McInytre voted against the Affordable Care Act, the announcer explains that he "voted for Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker four times—that's how we got Obamacare!"

Meanwhile, Republican David Rouzer opts for the standard GOP "third-party validator" route in his own new spot, with his grandma claiming he'll protect Medicare and Social Security. I wonder if this shtick works, because we see it so much, or if it's simply the best among bad options.


2:52 PM PT:OH-06: The DCCC rounds out a busy week with two more ads. The first attacks GOP Rep. Bill Johnson for closing manufacturing plants and shipping jobs overseas as a business executive.

PA-12: The D-Trip's other spot attacks Republican Keith Rothfus on similar grounds (promising to protect tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas), but as PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson points out, one claim rests on an absurdly slender reed: namely, that Rothfus, as a young attorney, once "worked for a law firm that had a 'strategic alliance' with a Chinese firm," which is supposed to explain his love of outsourcing. This is incredibly weak, and the ad doesn't need this distraction.

WI-08: Republican Reid Ribble tours a factory floor, praising American manufacturing and touting "bipartisan" legislation he introduced to "punish China for breaking trade rules."

WV-Gov: Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin touts his fiscal leadership of West Virginia, including the state's improving credit rating and his efforts to lower taxes.

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Comment Preferences

  •  NJ-Sen Rutgers poll (11+ / 0-)

    Menendez leads 47-35. http://www.politickernj.com/...

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:08:29 AM PDT

  •  Romney's first general election ad buy (10+ / 0-)

    At least, I think it is.

    15(!) new ads airing in 8 states:  Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

    Interesting to see where it isnt airing, of course. No WI, PA, or MI. PA, I understand, given that many polls show a steady mid single digits+ lead for the president. WI and MI are little more curious. A lot of polls have MI close, but from questionable pollsters. WI has clearly tightened, but perhaps both sides feel that's a Ryan bounce that will/has faded?

    Encouraging to see NC still on the list, and still fairly competitive, which I didnt expect this late in the race.  

    •  Wisconsin is the only surprise (8+ / 0-)

      I think. Even Michigan, like you said its questionable pollsters but even them most of them have showed Obama over 50. If there polls are showing the same thing they may not think its worth it when the President has enough support right now to win it.

    •  NC is no surprise (5+ / 0-)

      it was always going to be competitive until the end, no reason to think otherwise.

      •  I figured it would end up somewhat like IN (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        Maybe not completely uncompetitive like IN, but not the tossup it seems to be now.

      •  It will likely be competitive (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but that doesn't mean it's not a bad buy. People often worry too much about which states are winnable, when the primary question should be which states do you need to get 270.

        Honestly, I'm with OG, in that I'm shocked that they are essentially conceding Wisconsin and instead playing defense in North Carolina. They're essentially granting that this election will be held entirely in the purple/slightly-red states, and that they will almost have to win them all to survive. Maybe we're to that point of the race already, but that's a huge concession on their part.

        •  Might this also be an indication (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          James Allen, MichaelNY

          that their fund raising advantage isn't as much of an advantage as we feared it might be? Consider this in two ways.

          First, think purely in dollar terms. If Romney really had a huge mountain of cash, he'd be playing in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. Obama looks solid in them, partly because Romney's basically conceded them, but not so solid that it couldn't get close enough for OFA to worry and then respond. OFA would be faced with a choice of either diverting some resources from more important states or hoping that they don't lose it. And if for some reason Romney were to break out a lead in either of those states, his math gets quite a bit more complicated. The same can be said for a bunch of other states--not just Minnesota and New Mexico, but perhaps Oregon, Washington, and even a few Northeastern/Mid-Atlantic ones, too.

          Second, think in terms of opportunity cost, which is related but slightly different from that above. Even if with a smaller or basically non-existant cash advantage, Romney has advantages. It wouldn't surprise me if Obama won North Carolina, but if he does, it won't be by 15 points. Romney should be able to shuffle some resources into at least one other state to play offense without sacrificing that much in a state like North Carolina. You'd think so, anyway. But if he he can't do that, either he feels he can't compete in such states, which is a HUGE boon for our side, or that he can't make the trade off because his math is so tight, i.e. he can't afford to lose North Carolina in order to win Wisconsin. Our math is kinda, sorta tight, at least compared to 2008, but we have plenty of paths to 270.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:06:35 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  They're doing the right thing (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          They're deciding this based on their own private polling, and their polling shows NC is tight and needs continued defending, and Wisconsin is a heavy lift and not optimal.  They might be fucking up re Wisconsin, but I bet unlikely, and they're certainly right to stay on the air in NC.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:51:05 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The Republicans pulled out of Michigan (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bjssp, Sylv, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      In the last week or two. It isn't surprising that the Romney campaign isn't reinvesting there. Wisconsin on the other hand, really shocks me.

      •  At this point, it's becoming (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        clear he's either not serious or just not doing anything at all. What other excuse could he have, especially since he hasn't been running ads, or necessarily investing much in his ground game, in the state he has been in the main battlegrounds.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:11:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Instead of being surprised by Romney/GOP... (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        ...you should take their decisions, which have been  (strikingly and uncommonly) perfectly symmetrical with Obama's decisions, as proof of what's winnable and what's not for them.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:52:29 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  One hope I cling to is Cong. ad buys start up... (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, MichaelNY

      after Labor Day.  Sure there have been Senate ads up and primary ads up in the past but come September is when their campaigns, with less ad budgets, finally go to air.  So the unlucky folks in swing states who also have senate races (Nevada, Florida, Virginia, Ohio - Mich and Wi do as well) will have both Presidential campaigns with ads, both Presidential PAC supporting groups and 3rd party groups with ads, Senate candidates with ads and now Congressional races going to air.  

      We can say the Romney/PAC ads haven't worked in the past but they're trying a new attack where they'll try to attract the disillusioned Obama 08 voters by having supposed Obama voters claiming he let them down and blah, blah, blah.  So we'll have to see how effective this new line of attack will be.  

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:04:00 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Better question: (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        why didn't they start that process sooner? Seems like the most obvious form of attack on Obama, no?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:24:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Did anyone watch the ads themselves? (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, askew

      You can find them here.

      They seem oddly limp. Why are they all the same basic add, but with a few specifics changed for each state? And where are they getting these job figures from? They seem weirdly specific.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:09:02 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  MO-Sen: Akin's ads yanked from the air (17+ / 0-)

    because they failed to pay the bills: link

    KOMU-TV in Columbia says it received half of the payment for an ad buy, and when it didn’t get the other half, it cancelled the rest of the ads. The station says its confirmed that other stations from St. Louis to Kansas City have been put in the same position.
    $100K can't buy you three months of statewide saturation? Say it ain't so!

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:26:07 AM PDT

    •  Remember, he only realistically (8+ / 0-)

      has about 10 more days to drop out, even though legally he can until the 24th. Otherwise Robin Carnahan and local election figures can contest it (absentee ballots get sent out on the 22nd).

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:32:32 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Hopefully his ego kicks in strong (4+ / 0-)

        It would be awfully humiliating to drop out now after taking such a strong last stand against the party establishment. Might cost him his remaining fundie base and end his political career.

        (-2.38, -3.28) Independent thinker

        by TrueBlueDem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:41:42 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  You know I always felt (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          bumiputera, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          it was all the Republicans that were bashing him that kept him in the race, as he wanted to be prove them wrong.

          "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:29:07 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Correct, the 22nd is the real deadline (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Hang in there, Todd!

        And then, Claire, drop the bomb on him.

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:53:31 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  actually (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14

          shouldn't she start dropping the bombs on him before the 22nd. At least load up the ads on the weekend of the 22nd (starting on Thursday the 20th) so that Akin's refusal to move is even more notable and the topics of why his campaign has faltered can get on the news for a little bit longer.

          At least anti-Claire ads no longer randomly appear on YouTube in front of music videos, so that's a plus.

          The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

          by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:14:23 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  No way, you don't want to force him out... (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

            If he sees Claire as the ultimate enemy it might be easier to swallow his pride and get out of the way to see Claire ultimately defeated.  Right now he has to see the GOP machine as the bigger enemy how they treated him and cut him off from any funding - if he dropped out because of that then he'd be admitting they defeated him and broke him.  

            We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

            by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:41:56 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  only one candidate starts with any money on 9/22 (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14

              the rest start off at a disadvantage on resources. The idea that getting rid of Todd Akin gets rid of the Rs problems here is a myth.

              And the idea that softballing Akin for a month is going to help is a myth.

              If their house is on fire, throw some fuel on that fire. Akin won't drop out. His family runs his campaign. It's essentially like trying to force Gaddafi out of power. Akin won't leave voluntarily. What else is he gonna do? he's 65

              The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

              by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:14:17 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  NRSC and Crossroads would come in with $10M+ (3+ / 0-)

                instantly for the new candidate - the NRSC would run positive bio spots to introduce their new candidate and Rove would be back blasting away at McCaskill.  All the while this new candidate would have the whole of the party rallying around her and fundraising like crazy - probably pulling millions overnight to build her campaign infrastructure.  

                So it's $10M+ and a new candidate or no money and Akin.  I'll take the latter 100x out of 100.  

                We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

                by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:31:03 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  Yup, they'll run the show for him (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  This sort of thing has been done before, where the national establishment takes over a campaign and carries the candidate the victory.

                  The DCCC did it for Cesar Rodriguez in his December 2006 runoff against Henry Bonilla.  The court-ordered map forced Bonilla into a more competitive district that he still would've won one-on-one in November against the incompetent Rodriguez, but the multi-candidate field kept Bonilla under 50% and forced a runoff that the DCCC could focus on exclusively since it was post-November.  The DCCC parachuted in with its own people and other resources and ran the campaign...to Rodriguez's credit, he let them do it.  And he won.

                  Any replacement candidate in MO-Sen now would enter with a backroom promise of many millions of dollars in TV ads and a prefabricated campaign infrastructure courtesy of Washington Republicans.  And that will be plenty enough to make the race an instant tossup with McCaskill's underwater job approval.

                  44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

                  by DCCyclone on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 09:48:30 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

        •  I'd argue a week before that even. (0+ / 0-)

          Because they'd need time to print new absentee and overseas ballots.  If Akin is still in in a weeks time, I think McCaskill could have a legit case to challenge his ability to drop out after that point.  And Carnahan would have good reason to not allow him to drop out given he'd be throwing the whole electoral process into disarray and why would he be getting out?  Because he couldn't fundraise?

          Even if he gets out, the two weeks off from the Rove carpetbombing has hopefully allowed McCaskill some breathing room to regain some footing.  I really like her new ad about how she's rated 50th most liberal/most conservative Senator - right in the middle and how that makes her the perfect fit for Missouri.  

          We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

          by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:39:29 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  MO-Sen: new McCaskill ad (16+ / 0-)

    about the National Journal ranking her the most moderate Senator:

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:28:06 AM PDT

  •  same question I had last week (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    atdnext

    but I wonder if many media polls will go into the field this weekend to measure reaction to DNC. Or if they wait until later next week when the race is more settled?

    Saw only one non tracking polls after RNC: CNN(and a WaPo poll just on favorability).

  •  I'm not sure what to think about (10+ / 0-)

    The latest Jobs Report. It makes no sense from top to bottom. Underwhelming job growth, only 96,000 jobs created, yet unemployment falls by .2% (which somewhat counters the negative impact), and underemployment falls by .3%, and it comes on the heel of ADP, the private sector payroll firm's estimate that 203,000 jobs were added in the month, (and a big drop in unemployment claims the last week of the month, alongside a big stock market rally). So are we supposed to believe that ADP was off by 107,000? A 50% margin of error? While this report also lower estimates for June and July (which ADP raised)? Or did they seriously lowball August? I would be shocked if these numbers didn't eventually get revised upwards to the degree of at least 50K, by which time of course it won't matter.

    This month is getting even more attention than usual because of the DNC. Of course the utter hostility of the media during the DNC towards Obama, and the ridiculous fact-checks of Clinton (http://www.slate.com/...) suggest this sort of treatment isn't a surprise. All the headlines are a bit of an overreaction to say the least "

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:41:39 AM PDT

    •  My thoughts (7+ / 0-)

      I think some of the drop in the unemployment rate is people leaving the job market. Apparently, a lot of that is baby boomers retiring, so it's not necessarily bad news.

      I tend to think, in just pure political terms, a falling rate is good/neutral news for Obama, considering there was a net jobs gains as well.

      We do have to wait to see the revisions. As someone pointed out, last August's report was initially reported as net zero. With revisions, I think Aug 2011 now shows +82k jobs created. Not saying that means the revisions will be upward, just that the two(maybe more) revisions that happen can drastically change the picture.

      •  That's just it, the underemployment rate (7+ / 0-)

        incldues that, and it decreased by .3% as well.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:07:04 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Yep, IMHO this is the status quo... (11+ / 0-)

        That's probably already baked into Obama's poll numbers. At worst, it may take some air out of Obama's post-convention bounce. But as even Chuck Todd admitted on MSNBC this morning, Romney needs a real "game change" at this point to get out of the rut he's fallen into.

        •  Chuck Todd has always thought that (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, The Caped Composer

          He and his team have long hinted that Obama is winning, has been all along, and Romney hasn't made progress.  But as straight-arrow reporters they have to tiptoe around it, they don't want to come off like partisan talkers.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:58:40 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  The problem is, we still aren't (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, MichaelNY

        creating jobs at a fast enough clip to make a dent in the long-term unemployment rate. Hell, we are barely keeping our heads above water when it comes to keeping up with job growth.

        He really needs to double down on one specific plan for job creation, whether it's the Jobs Act or something more basic. If he just repeats it over and over again until election day and talks about how the Republicans won't vote for it, wouldn't that help?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:17:18 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  While the private sector (5+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, lordpet8, Woody, askew, MichaelNY

        job growth is improving the biggest drag on employment is the lost of the public sector jobs because of the state's lost of revenue – teachers, police, firemen and federal, state and local agency jobs.  IMO, a new stimulus package that is earmarked and specifically aimed at  public sector employment,  unlike the previous stimulus which was used for everything under the sun with little or no controls.  
        With a solid increase in public sector employment consumer spending will increase which, in turn, will yield more private sector jobs.

        "if you don't make peaceful revolution possible, you make violent revolution inevitable." ….JFK. .......{- 8.25 / -5.64}

        by carver on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:18:16 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Quick and easy, too (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, bumiputera, carver

          Most of the public sector jobs eliminated were real jobs. It would take only weeks to fill them if federal money got deposited in the accounts of the states and local governments.

          Simply rehiring could create 670,000 "new" jobs in the U.S. (not in China). That would be almost a 20% increase over the 3.5 million private sector jobs that have been created since the recession "ended" and things stopped getting worse.

          The AP says the economy is still 261,000 jobs short of the number when Obama was inaugurated. So restoring the public sector jobs that the Repubs wiped out would make up that shortage and give us another half million jobs above.

          Check my arithmetic (I'm at the confused stage of life), but with 133,300,000 workers today, the lost 670,000 is 0.5% of that total. Simply rehiring the sacked public employees -- teacher's aides, librarians, schoolteachers, groundskeepers, firemen, tree-trimmers, animal control officers, police, museum guards, game wardens, street sweepers, pothole fillers, etc -- just rehiring them would bring down the unemployment rate by roughly half a percent.

          Not exactly by 0.5%. Discouraged [former public] workers would jump up off their sickbeds and run down to city hall to apply for their old jobs. But simply increasing the number of workers from 133,300,000 to about 134,000,000 would decrease the unemployment rate, no doubt about it.

          Filling the empty jobs would change the lives of those 670,000 former employees and their families and communities. These folks would start spending. Maybe some would buy houses using low interest mortgages to help soak up inventory and restart residential construction. And the money they earned and spent would be taxed, increasing revenues at every level of government.

          To kick-start the economy, a Recovery Act part 2, anyone?

    •  U6 fell 0.3% (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, Sylv, ArkDem14, askew

      That's better than U3 dropping 0.2%, IMO.

      Hail to the king, baby.

      by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:38:23 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm far more angry (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, lordpet8, bear83, dufffbeer, MichaelNY

      at the reactions of those on the right who are either giddy at the weakness of it or merely repeating crap like, "Um, Mr. President, you've had four years and done nothing. NEXT!" I don't know why I subject myself to this torture.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:15:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Government cutbacks hurt us (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      bear83, lordpet8, pademocrat, MichaelNY

      Another triumph of Repub scorched earth opposition. Their policies at the state, local, and yeah, the federal level, have increased unemployment.

      GOVERNMENTS HURTING, NOT HELPING

      ... When you count the 7,000 public-sector jobs lost in August, governments at all levels ... have slashed 670,000 jobs since the recession ended in June 2009. ...

      It's the first time since World War II that governments have shed jobs this deep into an economic recovery. ... three years and two months into the nine previous postwar recoveries, government jobs had risen an average 8 percent. This time, they're down 3 percent.

      — Paul Wiseman, AP Economics Writer

      This news is hidden here, in this Yahoo News wrap, the fourth item down.
    •  ArkDem, look at my comments this morning (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      That makes sense of it.

      Monthtly fluctuations and inconsistencies between the two reports are nothing but statistical noise, no different from PPP having Obama doing better in Missouri in a sample with few black voters in one poll than in a sample with more black voters in the next Missouri poll.

      What's valid is a trendline over several months or longer, not one month's initial data that is so noisy it's guaranteed to be revised, and thus the initial number is outright wrong, anyway.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:57:37 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  It's gotta be mentioned (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    dc1000, lordpet8

    But a weak jobs report today. Takes some of the tarnish off the President's speech and the convention as a whole.

    •  Meh... (10+ / 0-)

      there are two dimensions to this -- the political and the economic.

      Political -- This report will end up being neutral and have no real effect on the dynamics of this race. A lot the media has disparaged the report but the drop in the unemployment rate is the only memorable number to most voters and it will counterract any political damage. This report is close enough to business as usual that it will be forgotten by next week and have no effect on the underlying dynamics of the race. At this point voters have come to expect numbers like this and the dynamics of the race would only be altered by a truly surprising number (ie job losses or more than 250k gains).

      Economic -- on face the report is somewhat disappointing. That being said, the jobs numbers have a margin of error of +/- 100,000 jobs and this report is in line with the long-term trend of noisy monthly numbers belying very stable underlying dynamics. In fact, long run average job numbers have been ~150,000 jobs per month for almost two years now with very little variation.

      http://blogs.wsj.com/...

      Although that's a somewhat disappointing long-term trend this report should do nothing to alter our perceptions of the underlying strength or weakness of the economy. Paul Krugman said it best today: "No News on Jobs."

      http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/...

      26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

      by okiedem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:55:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Here's a great graph from the WSJ article (13+ / 0-)

        about the stability in long term jobless claims. What it shows is that job growth has been remarkably consistent over the last two years if you use long-term averages to smooth out seasonal disruptions and statistical noise.

        http://blogs.wsj.com/...

        Photobucket

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:01:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It doesn't (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        okiedem, lordpet8, MichaelNY

        Have any long-term political impact, that I agree with you completely. But from a strictly political perspective, I disagree that the unemployment rate is the only number that matters. The jobs created numbers is the one that is the headline in all the articles.

        •  I hear you and there might be some political (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Xenocrypt, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          effect in that it probably will take some air out of the bounce. That being said I really don't think this will have any long term political effect. It's pretty much business as usual and most voters will have forgotten about this report by the end of next week.

          26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

          by okiedem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:22:36 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Agreed completely (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            That it won't have any long term political effect and I might go one step further and say that politically it'll be forgotten by early next week. But with it being literally 9 hours after the president's speech it hurts any bump the president might get out of his convention.

            One thing that isn't being talked about at all and I think politically it might be more of a harbinger than the jobs numbers or the President's speech is that the DNC is getting better ratings than the RNC. If its being watched primarily by just the bases then I guess that means our side is more motivated than there's. Plus, I think getting higher ratings by a pretty decent margin despite competing against the NFL season opener is somewhat significant.

        •  Not sure about that (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, askew, jncca, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          Does the average person really know what a "good" number would be for job creation? To the uninitiated, in fact, 96 thousand new jobs could sound like pretty significant job growth.

          But people tend to have a much better understanding of the unemployment rate, as it's a number they've seen quoted throughout the years, always on the same 1-100 percentage scale.

          For example, assuming media spin, let's look at two different headlines for this report:

          ONLY 96,000 NEW JOBS CREATED IN AUGUST
          UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DROPS TO 8.1%
          Most headlines will be a combination of these, but which one hits you in the gut more directly?

          For me, speaking just from the perspective of psychology, it's the latter. (No contest.)

          The first one basically says: It was less good than it could have been. I see the "only," and I understand it could have been better, but I still see lots of zeroes after that 96. That sounds okay.

          The second one says: Something good happened. Or: Oh, we're moving in the right direction. I can live with that.

  •  Steve Singiser tweets about Rasmussen (11+ / 0-)

    that O saw a 10 point jump with Indies to lead them +2. Both do equally well with their own party.

    I calculate this means that the Rasmussen sample must be about R+2 in this case. Key these numbers into a more plausible partisan breakdown of say +4D and you'd have something like Obama +4.

    So yes, Rasmussen "really" is showing an Obama lead, it's just masked by his ridiculous party weightings.

  •  Re: jobs report. (6+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, sacman701, Sylv, itskevin, aamail6, MichaelNY

    As often, I'm with Plain Blog: Slight differences within the same basic dynamic (and isn't that really what the 96k vs. 120k stuff is?) are unlikely to matter too much.  As I was thinking even before I read that, it'd be one thing if we were shedding jobs, but we aren't.

    27, Dem, Dude seeing a dude, CT-04(originally), PA-02/NY-14 (formerly PA-02/NY-12).

    by Xenocrypt on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:28:47 AM PDT

    •  yes, and anyway it's neutralised (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, itskevin, MichaelNY

      by the unexpected fall in the unemployment rate. This is certainly not a game changer for Romney; we've been set in this pattern of slow improvement for quite a while now and the polls have been set too. He really needs the October or November release to show an absolute decline in jobs, to give the impression that we could be falling back into recession, in order to change the narrative; or some other eye-catching economic disaster. Otherwise I don't think he's got the votes, and another ad blitz in states where they're already muting the TV isn't going to deliver them.

    •  Can you explain to me how ADP was off (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      SaoMagnifico, Sylv, lordpet8, MichaelNY

      by 107,000?

      Or how the unemployment rate fell a full .2% on a 100k job month, while underemployment fell by .3%?

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:38:42 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because of statistical noise (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        ArkDem14, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

        if you're reading the numbers for economic purposes you really have to read them in the context of earlier reports and of other economic indicators. In that context these numbers are really business as usual.

        Politically you have to consider what an undecided voter or an unmotivated Obama voter would think of this. They'll probably be a little unhappy about the negative headlines but will also see that the unemployment rate has declined. More importantly, this number is such a shock that the media will still be talking about it a week from now. Although it probably will have a short term minor negative effect, it's really hard to see any lasting effect from this report since it's close enough to expectations as to not fundamentally later how the media or the country sees the economy.

        26, originally OK-1, currently NY-10. Former swingnut.

        by okiedem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:45:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  sampling error (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Xenocrypt, KingTag, DCCyclone

        BLS' monthly estimates from the employer survey (where the topline job number comes from) have a standard error of about 100k. Basically that means that the actual job growth number this month was almost certainly between +0k and +200k. The consensus was for +125k, which is still close to the middle of this range. I don't know what the standard error on ADP is, but I would imagine it's higher.

        The unemployment number comes from the household survey, which is not nearly as broad as the employer survey. The standard error for that is about 400k every month. Basically, you should ignore month to month changes in that survey because as a first approximation it's just noise. Sometimes the 3-month change will tell you something, but the best way to make sense of the household survey is to compare it to the same month in the previous year.

        SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

        by sacman701 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:13:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Even during June/July's job numbers (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

      the horse race polling didn't really reflect the "bad news"

      7/18 - 7/22    1000 RV    3.1    49    43    Obama +6

      and an Ohio sample from the same time
      7/24 - 7/24    1115 LV    3.0    48    40    Obama +8

      "Never trust a man who, when left alone with a tea cosy, doesn't try it on!!"

      by EcosseNJ on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:45:49 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  ND-Sen: (14+ / 0-)

    (-9.38, -7.49), Blood type "O", social anarchist, KY-01, "When smashing monuments, save the pedestals. They always come in handy." — Stanisław Lem

    by Setsuna Mudo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:39:27 AM PDT

    •  Best Ad (7+ / 0-)

      Absolutely the best two ads of the cycle thus far were released today. I can't pick between this one and the McCaskill one above.

      22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

      by wwmiv on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:12:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I'm pretty confident at placing (8+ / 0-)

      ND-SEN at Lean Democratic now. It's combination of Heitkamp running the best campaign of any Democratic Senate candidate with the exception, perhaps, of Jon Tester in neighboring Montana, and Rick Berg's uneasy combination of personal unpopularity and the fact that he's running the 4th worse campaign of any major Republican candidate, (only ones worse than him are the Akin fiasco, Josh Mandel, and Charlie Sheen, uh, I mean Connie Mack). And outside Republican groups have seemed to do nothing but fuck up when they threw down money here, stepping it and making Berg look bad in the subsequent backlashes.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:44:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Obama's biggest mistake (10+ / 0-)

    Once again, a reminder that Obama chose to re-appoint Ben Bernanke. The same Ben Bernanke who has been utterly feckless in the face of mass unemployment while the Fed consistently misses its inflation target on the low side.

    Obama has also consistently been over-confident about future performance of the economy since 2009, which led him, among other things, to turn away from unemployment to deficit reduction way too soon.

    The Republican criticisms are, of course, precisely backwards. But Obama really does deserve some blame for these bad job reports.

    •  Summers and Geithner were bigger mistakes (5+ / 0-)

      They convinced him to go with a smaller stimulus and not to be too hard on wall street.  He believed their predictions that the recession would be milder than it turned out to be.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:53:05 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  How would he have gotten 60 votes? (7+ / 0-)

        Barn storm about it and finally convince Specter and Collins to come aboard with the bigger stimulus you have in mind? Could the economy have survived the uncertainty while that two week battle was fought?

        We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

        by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:09:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Go to the people and describe the crisis (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Woody, lordpet8, MichaelNY

          When he came in he had a lot of goodwill and people knew things were bad.  Had he and his advisors realized how bad and long lasting they would be, he could have conveyed that to the people.  And gotten them to support a bigger stimulus.

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:22:06 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Even if he failed to get a bolder program thru (0+ / 0-)

            If Obama had proposed a bigger stimulus for more job creation, then if Congress chopped it down, he could have defended himself later by blaming Congress.

            But he preemptively conceded and sent a too-small plan. Now he gets accused of being responsible for the sluggish economy and he can't really rejoin by saying that the continued slump is due to Repub opposition in Congress. The biggest failure of his presidency, economically and politically.

            Well, this isn't a policy thread. But Obama is hurting politically now because he forfeited the chance to run, like Harry Truman in his great upset victory, against a "do-nothing Congress".

            •  It's not too late for him to run a Truman campaign (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, Woody

              (though I'll say Truman's reelect numbers looked more dire)

              The Truman response to the "we built it" argument would be to demand the Republican house to ban all business loans ( I doubt the R's would take the bait). If Republicans really believe that businesses don't need government handouts let them prove it!

              As for the Welfare lie- just turn the issue on its head. Demand Republicans to attack the governors, as they would be the one's making any changes to welfare not the President. Remember the new policy was to give flexibility to states.

              "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

              by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:40:27 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Specter and Snowe were onboard (6+ / 0-)

          and they were willing to accept a larger program. Susan Collins and Ben Nelson however, were critical, and ended up being the two main folks that pushed it to be reduced 200 billion down to 747 billion and to increase the size of the tax cut.

          The real issue is, had Al Franken been seated earlier instead of having to go through a dragged out lawsuit and not been allowed by Tim Pawlenty to be seated in the Senate, Democrats would not have had to deal with Collins, and they could have arm-twisted Nelson until he shut up.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:46:37 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Specter was not on board - he insisted on cutting (6+ / 0-)

            about $70B from the stimulus package that was to be used to build state of the art school buildings.  Since the median age of the public school buildings in Philadelphia is about 70 years old, Specter stabbed public education and Philadelphia in the back.  Remember that Specter was still a loyal Republican at that point and was positioning himself to run in the Republican primary for US Senate.  He wanted to be able to claim in the GOP primary that he had forced Obama to cut the stimulus package.  Specter is such a snake.

            •  I had heard Specter was open to (0+ / 0-)

              larger stimulus.

              "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

              by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:38:03 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  See, cheating works! (0+ / 0-)

            The Al Franken debacle just proved to the Repubs that cheating works for them.

      •  I don't know if that is true. (0+ / 0-)

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:21:11 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Secy. Geithner is a cancer at Treasury (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        President Obama should have sacked him six months in once it became apparent his advice wasn't worth crap.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:20:07 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  I've developed a theory (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Zack from the SFV, MichaelNY

    on why Romney went dark for two weeks.  He has been running all ads on the welfare lie, and that has been so badly discredited that he and Ryan stopped talking about it on the campaign trail.  So he figured he'd stop running that shit while his campaign developed the new, multi-pronged line of attack they are releasing now.  Am I stupid, and if so how stupid?

    White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

    by spiderdem on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:50:25 AM PDT

    •  I Don't Think He's Gonna Back Down On..... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv

      ....the welfare lie.  My guess is his campaign, which nobody can accuse of being run by card-carrying MENSA members thus far, is holding back for a deluge of spending in the final month of the election, lobbing a ton of scurrilous charges that the Obama campaign has no time to articulate a cogent response to.  Jay Cost keeps telling us there are all these campaign finance regulations forcing Romney to hold back his spending until after Labor Day as a whole bunch of funds won't be legally available for usage until then (I don't remember this being an issue for either Obama or McCain in 2008), but it's after Labor Day and Romney is still holding his fire.  Right now it seems like the campaign is being run by rank amateurs, but surely something has to be done with all that Romney money in the next eight weeks as it's hard for me to even appreciate how they can possibly blow it all on just eight states hoping to score the sweep.

      •  He's going all out (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8

        A massive ad buy these next two weeks.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:41:19 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  ah the Meg Whitman route! (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, The Caped Composer

          makes sense since she's working for him!

          "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:42:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  My gosh if he does that everyone will (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          The Caped Composer, askew

          hate him even more. There's something called TOO MUCH negative ads.
          Otherwise know as the Whitman rule.

          "My friends, love is better than anger. Hope is better than fear. Optimism is better than despair. So let us be loving, hopeful and optimistic. And we’ll change the world." -Jack Layton (1950-2011)

          by Coco Usagi on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:17:27 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  Separate pots of money (0+ / 0-)

        A candidate is allowed to raise money for his "primary" campaign and spend it right thru the Convention when he is nominated. Meanwhile he can also raise money for his "general election" fund, but he has to bank that until the moment he becomes the nominee.

        However, I don't make much of a brief hiatus during the convention-Labor Day weekend-convention period. Paid advertising seems redundant and wasted during this time.

  •  wow, if this is an exact quote from Romney (14+ / 0-)

    I think it's pretty bad.

    Bill Kristol criticized Romney for not even thanking the troops, and last night, I think Jonah Goldberg even tweeted that Kerry was right when criticizing Romney for not mentioning soldiers fighting in Afghanistan.

    Again, if this quote is accurate, on top of not mentioning the troops in his acceptance speech, I think it's a big gaffe.

  •  Boston: City Council Redistricting (6+ / 0-)

    Mayor Menino vetoes lines because it "concentrates our many citizens of color into too few districts, and in doing so may limit their equal opportunity to elect candidates of their choice".

    Good move by the mayor.

    The plan passed with a vote of 7-6, with the white old guard generally against it (it was drawn by the Councillor from Southie, naturally, who also protected himself by ejecting minority-heavy bits of the South End from his seat). The original vote was:

    Joining Linehan in voting for the redistricting map were Councilors Frank Baker of Dorchester, Mark Ciommo of Brighton, Robert Consalvo of Hyde Park, Salvatore LaMattina of East Boston, Stephen J. ­Murphy of Hyde Park, and Matt O’Malley of Jamaica Plain.

    Voting against were Councilors Tito Jackson of Roxbury, John R. Connolly of West ­Roxbury, Charles Yancey of Dorchester, Ayanna Pressley of Dorchester, Felix G. Arroyo of Jamaica Plain, and Michael P. Ross of Mission Hill.

    http://www.boston.com/...

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:24:40 AM PDT

  •  2016 Tea Leaves (5+ / 0-)

    Since we're all hopeless junkies, I thought it worth highlighting a couple pieces on potential 2016 contenders in the NYT and Politico.

    By and large, the lists of aspiring candidates are fairly familiar. Hillary Clinton and, to a lesser extent, Joe Biden, are heavyweights who are big question marks at this point. But if both past, the B-listers aren't that surprising: Andrew Cuomo, Martin O'Malley, and Mark Warner are all seen as likely candidates (especially the former two).

    A little more surprising to others may be Amy Klobuchar, who made both lists and met several times with the Iowa delegation. Not a big surprise to me as she seemed like an ambitious and plausible candidate, but not a lot of DKE'ers have brought her up.

    Most surprising though is that both articles seem to suggest that Antonio Villaraigosa wants to run. On paper it seems DOA to me - a mayor, not a governor or senator with past marital scandals. But who knows?

  •  What did everydody thought about Jen Granholm? (7+ / 0-)

    I thought she was friggin awesome. I never so her fired up and that animated. Too bad she was born in Canada, so Pres or VP are out the question. But if Levin does indeed retires next cycle, I think she should be the top choice for Dems to hold that seat, besides Whitmer (if she doesnt run for Gov)

    I think my senator Lautenberg, and Levin are going to retire, but I don't think Dems will have a hard time holding those seat. Michigan will be a little more competitve than New Jersey, but we should be able to hold that.

    Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

    by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:37:57 AM PDT

    •  I'd like to see her back in office too (9+ / 0-)

      though while she can give a great speech, her poll ratings weren't always good as governor (usually for reasons not mainly her fault IMO).  So I have doubts about her further electability, though she can't be counted out; she did overcome a lag in the polls in 2006.

      If Obama is reelected, she should be considered for something like Attorney General or the Supreme Court.

      36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

      by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:59:10 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would really like to see her (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, MichaelNY

        as Attorney General.

        "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

        by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:50:17 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Me too (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        but I don't get the feeling she wants to run for office again.  I think she can overcome her poor approval ratings.  MI was in a bad place much of her term but things were improving during her last year and a half in office.  It wasn't her fault that Michigan's economy was doing so poorly but people needed someone to blame.  Hopefully people gain some perspective as we get further away from her term as governor.  

        She would be great on the Supreme Court but I don't see her getting picked.  It would be difficult to get someone with no judicial experience approved unless the Democrats have 60 votes.  

    •  I thought she was excellent (7+ / 0-)

      One of the better speeches I saw at the convention, and certainly one of the most enthusiastic. Unfortunately, Granholm left office very unpopular in Michigan, and I don't think she would win a senate race unless it was a very good year for Democrats, or her brand significantly recovers by then. I like Whitmer for governor in 2014, and I also like Gary Peters for Senate when Levin retires. My hope for governor Granholm is that she gets a good position in the Obama administration - Attorney General if/when Eric Holder retires, or potentially something less powerful like Commerce Secretary or something like that. And there is always quiet speculation that she may get a seat on the Supreme Court someday, but that doesn't seem entirely realistic.

      •  the reasons why her numbers were bad (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bear83, MichaelNY

        Michigan was in peril. It was in horrible shape especially the auto industry. It will be interesting to see if her numbers has rebounded since leaving office.

        And yes I would to see her as a supreme court justice! We need to get one of those Reagan/Bush Sr. appointees out. You know they going to be stubborn to resign until a Republican is in office. They don't want a Democrat appointing their successor. That why not 2012 is important but 2016!

        Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

        by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:07:59 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I actually think Anthony Kennedy (5+ / 0-)

          might retire in 2013 or 2014, when he'd be approaching 80. He's not the true conservative ideologue that Scalia is, and seriously, at this point he's essentially exerted his influence and ideology on all the major legal issues of our period, he doesn't really have much to look forward to on the court, he's accomplished his legacy in other words.

          I really want to see Diane Wood appointed when Ginsburg retires in the next few years. She'd make a fantastic addition to the Court, as an intelligent and very eloquent and respected leftist jurist to work alongside Elena Kagan at pushing Roberts to side with them on certain issues.

          "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

          by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:55:23 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Judge Wood (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jncca, Christopher Walker, MichaelNY

            Judge Wood is great, but she's already 62. Do you think a Supreme Court nomination would go to someone so old? Sure, Ginsburg was 60 when she was appointed (I think), and many of the president's circuit court appointees have been unusually old. But many will no doubt call for a younger person to get a seat that's a lifetime appointment.

          •  Hope so (4+ / 0-)

            I would say though that Kennedy does relish his position as the swing justice (usually ACA being the obvious exception) and I could see him holding on in a John Paul Stevens type manner.

            Re: Diane Wood, while she would be a fantastic choice from a jurisprudence level, but I worry about not going with someone younger. The Repubs have done a better job than us at almost nominating very young justices which leaves us with people like Scalia on the court for 40 years at a time. I wish Obama would put more effort into judicial nominations as he has been incredibly slow at nominating people which limits our pool for promotion down the road.

            OH-1 (born and raised ), MN-2 (college), CA-53 (grad school), IA-2 (postdoc)

            by aamail6 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:27:10 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  that's partly due to the Republicans in the senate (4+ / 0-)

              They have been holding up a good deal of Obama court nominees.

              Goodwin Liu was a good example

              On February 24, 2010, President Barack Obama nominated Liu to fill a vacancy on the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit. For more than a year, Liu's nomination languished, amid significant opposition from Republicans in the U.S. Senate. On May 19, 2011, the Senate rejected cloture on Liu's nomination in a 52-43 vote, and on May 25, 2011, Liu informed President Obama that he was withdrawing his name from consideration to the seat on the Ninth Circuit, telling the president that "With no possibility of an up-or-down vote on the horizon, my family and I have decided that it is time for us to regain the ability to make plans for the future." On July 29, 2011, President Obama formally notified the Senate that he was withdrawing Liu's nomination for the 9th Circuit.
              Thankfully Jerry Brown appointed him to CA supreme court. But we've got to get the ball rolling on getting the rest of his nominees confirmed. All the more reason to have a Dem controlled senate.

              "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

              by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:06:12 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

          •  Wood seems well-qualified (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            but Granholm is 9 years younger.

            However, don't look at me. I do not follow the federal courts at all, and probably wouldn't even recognize the names of many of the best-qualified candidates.

            A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

            by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:36:52 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

          •  Kennedy won't retire if Obama wins. He'll (4+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            aamail6, lordpet8, James Allen, MichaelNY

            wait until the 2016 election. After his absurd position on the ACA case, I don't believe that he isn't an ideologue.

            And Diane Wood is way too old to be a pick for us. She is 62 now. We shouldn't be nominating anyone older than 50.  

            President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

            by askew on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:40:50 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Who's on your list? (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:55:57 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  I never knew why they call him (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              lordpet8, askew

              the "swing vote". He's as right wing just like those other 4 justices. You could just imagine the hate that was oozing out of him during the reports from ther ACA ruling. When he's was trying desperately to get Robert to change his vote.

              Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

              by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:56:15 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  well he sorta assumed the role (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                when the true swing voter, Justice Sandra Day O'Connor retired. Though he's been more right leaning than her.

                Yeah if anything many of us were expecting the opposite, where Justice Roberts would be begging him to invalidate the mandate.

                "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

                by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:09:56 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  she was reelectant to retire when Clinton (1+ / 0-)
                  Recommended by:
                  MichaelNY

                  or any other Democrat in office. See with me that's why I always vote Democratic especially when it comes to Presidential and Senatorial races. I never follow politics like I did until the '08 election, and since then I've learned that much where ppl in this country can determine how the Supreme Court is composed. I learned way more now than I did before 2008. If you ask me to name the 2 Senators from California back then, I couldn't tell you.

                  I knew who certain elected officials were. I knew who my Governor was, my Mayor, and obviously the President and Vice President. As well as certain cabinate positions like Sec. of State and Sec of Defense. I knew Hillary Clinton was my Senator from my home state, and Obama was from Illinois cause I remember his '04 speech. I didn't know Schumer was my other homestate senator till later. And eventually the other Senators, and the Governors from the other states.

                  You'll be amazed how little the average person know about the elected folks who run our gov't. It's like when Leno does his "Jay walking" segment, and you'll be dumbfound with some of the answers they give.

                  Moderate Progressive, Born in Cairo, Raised in NY-11, Living in NJ-13.

                  by BKGyptian89 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:37:18 PM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  yes ofcourse despite a her centrist stance (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    MichaelNY

                    she still was appointed by Reagan and did vote in favor of Bush during the Florida debacle.

                    Party politics has really become very polarized. That's why we're very unlikely to have s Republican nominate another David Souter or John Paul Stevens to the supreme court. Both were appointed by R presidents and both ended up on the liberal wing of the court.

                    "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

                    by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:03:14 PM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

              •  Kennedy (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                is a libertarian.  No further explanation is needed.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:41:12 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  on some issues (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              ArkDem14, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

              on some he is.  IIRC Kennedy wrote the opinion determining that capital punishment for minors is cruel and unusual punishment.

              Romney. Ryan. Wrong.

              by James Allen on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:55:13 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  Kennedy wrote Roper vs. Simmons (3+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                ArkDem14, MichaelNY, KingofSpades

                ending the death penalty for minors, and Lawrence vs. Texas, which wiped out "sodomy" statutes.  Also, in 1992 he was one of the three (along with O'Connor and Souter) who wrote Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, reaffirming Roe vs. Wade, which might well have been overruled if Kennedy hadn't changed his mind on the issue and joined the two others.

                So while his vote in the healthcare ruling was surprising, and disappointing (and John Roberts' surprising in a more positive way), we can't dismiss him as a predictable rightwinger.

                36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

                by Mike in MD on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:19:40 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

            •  He's also very partisan (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              askew

              As witness his vote on Bush v. Gore.

              I agree that he's unlikely to retire unless he feels he has to.

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:31:56 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Granholm had one of the better lines of (7+ / 0-)

         last night. That was the one about Willard's cars getting an elevator while the autoworkers get the shaft.  She was really energized in that speech. Damn!

      Diehard Swingnut, disgruntled Democrat, age 54, new CA-30

      by Zack from the SFV on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:13:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I thought she was going crazy (0+ / 0-)

      The crowd loved it, but she can't speak like that to crowds who aren't so partisan.

      Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

      by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:25:20 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Well, this jobs report sure is a bummer (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Yes, it's nice that unemployment and underemployment dropped pretty significantly, but that's being left out of most headlines because of how shocking it is that ADP was saying +200,000 and the actual reported gain is under +100,000. I do think the numbers will probably be revised upwards, but who knows.

    Hopefully people aren't really hanging on these jobs reports the way the political class does.

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:41:49 AM PDT

    •  Check Out The Morning Digest..... (0+ / 0-)

      The jobs numbers aren't a bummer at all!

    •  Good charts (8+ / 0-)

      http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

      There's been nearly 2 years of consecutive monthly job gains.  But the advance is being held back by losses in the public sector.  And wage growth and the participation rate continue to either stagnate or drop.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:49:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The Republicans are the greatest impediment... (9+ / 0-)

        To the recovery. Vote the Republicans out of the majority and economic growth will soon follow.

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:50:21 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  There are structural problems with the economy (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Sylv

          Mainly the result of some 30 years of the hollowing out of the manufacturing base of the country.  

          “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

          by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:54:01 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  It's far and away a demand problem, not a supply (3+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Woody, SaoMagnifico, MichaelNY

            problem. Whatever structural issues we have don't compare to the demand issues we have.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:27:04 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  I (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          DCCyclone, MichaelNY

          wish this was Australia where attempts to cull public sector jobs are a path to political suicide, or at least get people marching in the streets.

          The Treasurer, Wayne Swan, attacked Mr Hockey as heartless.

          “Having previously announced on breakfast television that he needs to find $70 billion to fill his budget crater, Mr Hockey’s been back on TV with glowing praise for Campbell Newman’s campaign of savage cuts to jobs and services,’’ he said.

          ‘‘These comments from Mr Hockey should send shivers down the spine of Australian workers across the country who are already worried about what Mr Abbott’s reckless negativity might mean for the economy and for jobs.

          “This high praise for Campbell Newman’s extreme job cuts is an insult to Queenslanders who deserve good services.’’

          Read more: http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/...

          Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

          by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:05:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  small point (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Sylv, itskevin, MichaelNY

      ADP measures private hires, which for the BLS were +103,000, as we're still losing government jobs (7,000 in August).

    •  What does Obama plan to do about it? (0+ / 0-)

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:19:06 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  What can he do about it? (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        Basically, he's screwed until after the election in the hopes that the Dems pick up the House, hold the Senate and the Senate filibuster rules are changed.

        He made a huge mistake by not replacing Bernake in 2008 and he's paying for it now because the Fed is the only available tool to improve the economy now.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:42:55 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  He can talk about it more. (0+ / 0-)

          It's not as if he's done nothing or hasn't proposed anything, but unlike the stimulus, which is probably a net negative for him now, I don't think there's one piece of legislation than people associate with him and jobs in a positive way. If he changes that, even just by talking about it in a simple but concrete way, I imagine he'll have a significant advantage over Romney.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:55:20 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I'm surprised Romney hates Chairman Bernanke... (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Chachy, askew

          So much, considering Bernanke is probably the biggest reason why he's not polling 20 points behind.

          Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

          by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:22:11 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  20 points? (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:46:59 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  He's the worst presidential nominee... (0+ / 0-)

              In modern history, running against a president whose record would be sterling if only the economic recovery was somewhat stronger.

              Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

              by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:48:16 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  modern era (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                The modern era must start some time after 1972 then, as even in the worst case Romney isn't going to underperform his party's baseline anywhere near as much as McGovern did. He's about at the same level as Dukakis and Mondale. Also note that any of the jokers who ever got serious consideration against Romney in the primary (except maybe Pawlenty) would have been far worse, McGovern- or Goldwater-level bad.

                SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

                by sacman701 on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 05:12:37 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

  •  Gallup moves! Obama 48-45 (17+ / 0-)

    Guess I was wrong.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:01:15 AM PDT

  •  Factual Problems with WJC's Speech (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingTag, ArkDem14, bear83, dufffbeer, MichaelNY

    I'm as excited as you guys that he gave a great speech on Wednesday and will be doing a bus tour of the Midwest, but there were some factual problems with his speech that might come up. From the AP:

    CLINTON: "Their campaign pollster said, 'We're not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.' Now that is true. I couldn't have said it better myself — I just hope you remember that every time you see the ad."

    THE FACTS: Clinton, who famously finger-wagged a denial on national television about his sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky and was subsequently impeached in the House on a perjury charge, has had his own uncomfortable moments over telling the truth. "I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky," Clinton told television viewers. Later, after he was forced to testify to a grand jury, Clinton said his statements were "legally accurate" but also allowed that he "misled people, including even my wife."

    It's hard to know, as WJC said, whether to laugh or cry or when reading this shit.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:16:42 AM PDT

  •  Ontario (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Paleo, KingofSpades, DCCyclone, MichaelNY

    NDP scored an important win last night:

    Premier Dalton McGuinty’s carefully plotted plan to win the majority that eluded his governing Liberals 11 months ago has gone off course, with the New Democrats emerging victorious in a key by-election.

    Catherine Fife, 43, rode to victory in the Southern Ontario riding of Kitchener-Waterloo Thursday evening on a wave of discontent over the Liberals’ push to rein in wages for public-sector workers, notably the province’s secondary and elementary teachers.

    In a riding where the stakes were enormously high for all three party leaders, victory was particularly sweet for the New Democrats, whose fortunes have been on the ascent since the provincial election last October.

    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/...

    Kitchener-Waterloo was held by veteran PC MPP Elizabeth Witmer (a red Tory) before McGuinty appointed her as chairman of the Workplace Safety and Insurance board paving the way for the by-election.

    Witmer also revealed today that she really accepted the appointment because her husband was diagnosed with colon cancer at the time.

    The Liberals were hoping to win the by-election so they could hold a majority of the seats in provincial parliament, but voters had different ideas here.

    Also PC leader Tim Hudak showed why he's Harper and Flaherty (Harper's treasurer) BFF in Ontario because he said the unions "bought" the election and that the NDP and Liberals are leading Ontario off the cliff financially.

    Republicans and the Tea Party: Wrong for America.

    by ehstronghold on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:22:00 AM PDT

  •  ARG: Romney 49-46 (0+ / 0-)

    1200 LVs.  9/4 to 9/6.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:35:51 AM PDT

  •  Latch not lash in the TN-04 section right? (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, MichaelNY, David Jarman

    Returning to the job report, Forbes had a surprisingly balanced take on the issue:

    The August jobs report left a bittersweet taste.  While the number came as a disappointment, substantially under analysts’ expectations, the politically and psychologically important unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1%.  All eyes are now on Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who made the case for further easing, but isn’t expected to unleash QE3 at next week’s FOMC meeting; rather, he will probably extend the forward rate guidance.
    http://www.forbes.com/...

    That perhaps this isn't all bad because it will encourage the Fed to take a more proactive stance in the coming quarter with its policy.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:35:58 AM PDT

    •  One can only hope. (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      dsh17, bythesea, Woody, dufffbeer, MichaelNY

      I'm not sure how possible it is to take back the House, nor how likely it is that we can corral all of our members into voting for what is a new stimulus in every way but name, but if we take it back and hold the Senate, the very first moments should be devoted to passing something big. I don't care if Obama's approval sinks down to three percent and Nancy Pelosi is having rotten tomatoes thrown at her in public. Something big will make the situation better, and then we can begin the process of climbing back in the polls and saying, "Uh, we told you so...assholes."

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:47:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Pelosi explains the plan to win it (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, MichaelNY

        You must have missed this excellent report from Frontpager Joan McCarter who met with Nancy Pelosi. This story sort of got lost in the stampede.

        Madame Speaker seems pretty confident of retaking the House. That certainly raised my spirits, and should brighten yours!

        •  she was confident about keeping it in 2010 (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          lordpet8, KingTag, propjoe

          I'd say our odds of taking the House without Obama winning the Presidency by ten percent or more are about 10%.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:42:15 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  I think her general read on things (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          is similar to what I've been saying for a long time, but then, I've always thought an assault on the Romney-Ryan plan was an integral part. Whatever they feel the best way of approaching this goal is, I should remember that DCCyclone, among others, has said that these things tend to develop late.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:43:25 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It will still be a tough road to get there (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          aamail6, MichaelNY

          We need a wave to counter the Republican gerymanders, We also gave the Republicans a free house seat in California this year (Ca-31)
          I think the key will be to pass Ohio independent redistricting so we can pick up some seats in 2014.

          "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

          by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:46:13 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  No, lash (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ArkDem14

      Like a captain lashes himself to the wheel of a sinking ship in a storm. Latch is certainly good too, though. So is leash. (English is such a versatile, evocative language, isn't it?)

      Editor, Daily Kos Elections.

      by David Jarman on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:05:06 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  WATN: Carly Fiorina Edition (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bythesea, lordpet8, MichaelNY

    Apparently, the former HP CEO and failed 2010 Senate candidate is joining "The Daily Show." Her audition tape the other day was very well received.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 10:51:59 AM PDT

  •  Walsh's statements are even dumber (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, bythesea, askew, MichaelNY

    In the context of the rave reviews Duckworth's speech drew from self-described Republicans, at least in word of mouth. But it's part of a consistent and disturbing strategy he's made of demeaning his opponent not on any professional or ideological level, but on a personally level. It's going to bite him hard when he loses big in November.

    "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

    by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:02:45 AM PDT

  •  INTERIOR: MILLENNIUM FALCON -- COCKPIT. (12+ / 0-)

    HAN: Stand by, Chewie, here we go. Type in http://www.gallup.com.

    HAN: What the...? Aw, we've come out of cyberspace into a data shower. Some kind of denial of service condition. It's not on any of the charts.  All it says is "Application Error"

    The Wookiee flips off several controls and seems very cool in the emergency. Luke makes his way into the bouncing cockpit.

    LUKE: What's going on?

    HAN: Our URL is correct, except...no, Gallup!

    LUKE: What do you mean? Where is it?

    HAN: That's what I'm trying to tell you, kid. It ain't there. It's been totally blown away.

    LUKE: What? How?

    Ben moves into the cockpit behind Luke as the ship begins to settle down.

    BEN: Overwhelmed...by the wingnuts!

    HAN: The entire right wing couldn't destroy the whole web site. It'd take a thousand hits with more network power than I've...

    A signal starts flashing on the control panel and a muffled alarm starts humming.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:10:46 AM PDT

  •  Serious idea for DK as a whole, including DKE (0+ / 0-)

    Could there be a function added that gives you the option of highlighting your own comments in a different shade of orange so you can spot them easier when wading through hundreds of comments?  

  •  Why Obama Went Low Key in His DNC Speech (7+ / 0-)

    Here's a legitimately interesting column from Howard Kurtz. I see no reason to doubt the accuracy of his claims, so with that in mind, I was excited to see this:

    Indeed, [his advisors] extensively tested the president’s speech in dial groups, where voters twist levers to register approval or disapproval of specific passages, and say it tested off the charts. The reaction, they say, was more positive than to Obama’s 2008 acceptance speech in Denver.
    Makes me think these guys have some idea of what they are doing...

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:36:51 AM PDT

    •  Yeah, it seemed poll tested (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, bumiputera, itskevin, DCCyclone

      Seemed like a very "kitchen sink" approach.  Which is why some compared to a state of the union address.  Doesn't mean it wasn't an effective speech.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:40:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  The only thing that has me (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        nervous and wondering what's going on is the lack of a more thorough attack on Romney-Ryan. Am I missing something? I hope I am, because it seems like a glaring omission.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:44:43 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Not surprised at all, I assumed the speech... (6+ / 0-)

      ...would have had its messaging researched in advance for what worked and what didn't.

      People just don't realize how OFA does things.  Even seasoned operatives like Carville seem oblivious.

      What's sadder is that the stuff OFA does that's conventional also seems to escape so many "analysts."  I can't get over how paid commentators obsess over public polls and wonder why Obama (or Romney, for that matter) doesn't do this or that in response.  It never occurs to them that campaigns do their own private polling, that their private polling is better than any public polling, and that campaigns make their decisions based on those private polls, not public ones.  It never occurs to them that maybe public polls that contradict campaign behavior might signal bad public polls, not mistakes by the campaign.

      But beyond that, I'm surprised seasoned operatives might not be aware that OFA tests in advance every message they deliver.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:28:21 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  FL-26: Sternad manager disappears (9+ / 0-)

    This doesn't sound good:

    Ana Alliegro, a campaign manager for former Democratic congressional candidate Justin Lamar Sternad, is at the center of the federal probe of Sternad and Rivera. FBI agents are investigating whether the Republican congressman used Alliegro to secretly fund Sternad's primary race against Rivera's longtime rival, Joe Garcia. Garcia easily won the Aug. 14 primary.

    Alliegro never showed up to give a statement to investigators. She had been scheduled to testify Thursday before a federal grand jury in Fort Lauderdale, but her lawyer Mauricio Padilla worked out a deal to speak directly to investigators.

    "I am very worried," said her mother, Agueda "Gudy" Alliegro in an interview with El Nuevo Herald on Friday.

    22, male, new CA-18 (home and voting there), new LA-01 (college)

    by Jeff Singer on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 11:45:21 AM PDT

  •  any of you guys old enough to remember Morris (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    lordpet8, Christopher Walker, lina

    Udall? He was a powerful congressman as chair of the Natural Resources committee. He was last elected to the house in 1990 and hinted that it was going to be his last term.

    Do any of you guys remember early into his last term when he fell down the stairs and sustained a blow to his head? If I recall he was in a coma for eight years. I always found it kind of scary that you can be a big-time political power broker one minute and then be in a vegetative state the next.                                                                  

    RRH expat (known as AquarianLeft). Also known as freepcrusher on leip atlas forum

    by demographicarmageddon on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:30:36 PM PDT

    •  Is that true? (0+ / 0-)

      I thought he had Parkinson's.  I don't remember any long coma.

      “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

      by Paleo on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:35:32 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Wasn't it from Parkinson's? (0+ / 0-)

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 12:39:14 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I remember him as Jimmy Carter's major rival (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      in 1976, but I don't remember his mishap or him being in a coma.

    •  you may be mixing up stories (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lina, MichaelNY

      Gladys Spellman was in a PVS post-heart attack for 8 years, having to be removed from the House in 1981 (she was replaced by Steny Hoyer)

      Udall did have a fall in January 1991 (breaking a collar bone, 4 ribs and shoulder blade) and was forced to resign in May of that year as his Parkinsons got worse (he was diagnosed with in the 70s).

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:48:30 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I favored him in 1976 (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      lina, MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      when he ran for President in 1976 the alternatives (after the earliest stages of the cycle)  were Carter, Scoop Jackson, and George C. Wallace. Udall was really good on environmental issues, which were my main concern at the time, and I was disappointed when he did not win the nomination. Scoop Jackson was a man of stature and integrity but too conservative to win my support.

      I didn't remember the fall and coma part of the story.

      No one called him Morris, by the way. He was known as Mo Udall.

      A Republican is a person who says we need to rebuild Iraq but not New Orleans. - Temple Stark

      by Christopher Walker on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:57:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Weather report... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Mark27, David Nir, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    As I predicted, the media concern storm over the jobs report is gaining strength and is now a category 1 concernicane. Users are advised to take cover from terms such as "grim" and "dismal" in news reports. These terms are pervasive. Please find shelter as soon as possible.

    GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

    by LordMike on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:04:01 PM PDT

  •  Rep. Baldwin, how dare you... (9+ / 0-)

    Have fun! You gay monster!

    Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

    by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:13:39 PM PDT

    •  Is this the sort of thing that could help (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, bythesea, MichaelNY

      her with Indies? I'm hardly a representation of an Independent voter, but if I had to guess, I'd say that one thing that really turns them off is any hint of bigotry.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:23:57 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Race Rating: CA-45 Change (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ArkDem14, MichaelNY

    As I have been saying for a while now, anyone stating this race as safe R is EXTREMELY wrongheaded for 3 reasons:

    1.)  Blue CA is becoming bluer: Demographic trends are favorable in CA, and comparing polling from 2008 to 2012 for Obama show that he will likely do as well as he did in 2008 or better.  This means that the 2008 presidential numbers at the congressional level in California may be the NEW NORMAL for presidential years.

    2.)  Light red Orange County is becoming bluer:  The changing demographics statewide don't skip over Orange County, and these demographics are also becoming favorable to electing more democrats at the congressional level.  in 2008, Orange County was the McCain county with the lowest margin for him (he won the county by 2.5%), Meaning, a SMALL shift of 1.25% would make Orange County blue this year.

    3.) Specific Dynamics in CA-45:  Look, Campbell isn't popular.  He wasn't even endorsed by the OCGOP this year in his run for re-election, and got a Some dude challenger with no money that pulled in 15% in a three way open primary.  There is a level of discontent in this district with Campbell due to his vote for TARP, and to a lesser extent, his vote to repeal DADT.  This district is also MASSIVELY different than the Old 48th, meaning, a large chunk of the electorate don't know who the hell Campbell is, and he sure as hell isn't campaigning, because even HE thinks he is safe.  Kang has also not been too shabby when it comes to fundraising, and has a dedicated team behind him.  They even opened an office in the REDDEST city in the district to keep the margins down there.  Kang's term as mayor has been pretty extraordinary and people who know about it are pretty amazed by it.  I have relatives that are extremely conservative, but also happen to sit in on the Irvine city council meetings.  They tell me they are strong for Romney, but will also be voting for Kang.

    Lets wrap all of these up into a nice package.  If the presidential vote from 2008 is the new normal, then we can expect Romney to just win this distinct with numbers similar to 2008 (50.59-46.25).  Obama's margin in this district this year will likely stick around 46%, and add in the fact that Campbell isn't really well liked, you have Kang's baseline at 46%.  Add in the fact that there are quite a few Asian Republicans that reside in this district who will likely vote for Kang due the idea of having another Asian American in congress, you close the gap a little. THEN add in the fact that there will be a chunk of Romney/Kang voters from areas not represented by Campbell in the past as well as people who are not at all fond of Campbell, and well, a path to 50%+1 is not hard to imagine.

    I guess we will wait and see what happens on November 6th though.  I have been wrong before, but my analysis doesn't seem to be too off base.  Campbell never really performed as well as he should have, especially in the old 48th which included Newport beach, a place that should have given him huge margins due to his somewhat socially moderate views.  He only garnered 55% against a some dude perennial candidate that had zero money in 2008.  He's the definition of a weak incumbent in a district this red, and quite frankly it's criminal that the DCCC isn't getting involved.

    Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

    by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:17:15 PM PDT

    •  I'm probably going to write a diary on this race (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      at some point. ugg.

      Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

      by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:20:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  you're wayyyyy too invested (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits, DCCyclone

      in this.  I get that it's your home district.  But let's play a game.

      How many Republicans in ancestrally Republican districts have lost while the Democratic presidential candidate lost their district?  Exclude 2008, as it was a wave year.

      I can think of Phil Crane.  That's about it.  And John Campbell is no Phil Crane.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      politicohen.com
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:23:48 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say that should give him hope. (4+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        bumiputera, lordpet8, Daman09, MichaelNY

        If I recall correctly, that was kind of a surprise win for our side.

        I'd have more hope that we could knock him off if we heard about what Kang was doing to make sure voters would come out.

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:35:48 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  It actually isn't even my home district (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        lordpet8, ArkDem14, MichaelNY

        I live in San Clemente, and get to enjoy being represented by Darrell Issa in 2013.  I don't think you can just discount 2008 when you talk about California.  You may forget, but 2010 was devistating to democrats around the country... except in California where we took back a statewide office (insurance commissioner) and gained a seat in the state assembly.

        There are simply different dynamics in this state than in other states.  If this was an election in say Florida with the EXACT same dynamics, I would probably blow it off as safe R.  As I said, I may be off base, but I was strongly pulling for Bill Hedrick in CA-44 back in 2008 when I heard exactly nothing from anyone about that race.  Surprise, surprise, he lost by 3 in this ancestrally republican district in which he had NO MONEY against a long term incumbent.  Only in 2010 after the DCCC pulled it's head out of it's ass did it give him any money to Hedrick, but 2010 was 2010, and he lost by an 11 point margin.  I sadly feel that this could be Kang's fate, as, once again, the national party has decided not to get involved in a winnable race.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

        by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:36:05 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  I live here too (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, DCCyclone, sapelcovits

          I'd love for Kang to win, but stuff like this just doesn't happen.  People like John Campbell don't lose in neutral years in favorable districts, unless they go Phil Crane and stop actually doing their job as Representative.  And I don't think Kang is as moderate as Bean, either.

          19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
          politicohen.com
          Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
          UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

          by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:48:26 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, that is also another thing (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            ArkDem14, MichaelNY

            That I had forgotten about.  Another reason the OCGOP didn't endorse him was due to the fact he NEVER comes back to the district.  The county party has requested that he make an appearance at their fundraisers multiple times, not only does he never show up, his office doesn't even have the decency to get back to them.  He never does any local constituency service here.  That was one of Krom's attack points on 2010, he never comes back to the district, and it seems to have ticked a few people off.  That could qualify as not doing his job, so we may have a Phil Crane here.

            And what makes you think Kang isn't ideologically similar to Bean?  He is a self described moderate, and has actually aggravated Larry Agran in the city council many times (Agran, for those who don't know, is proudly progressive, and has been involved in Irvine politics for 30+ years) due to his more fiscally conservate outlook.  Just doing a quick read through on Bean's wikipedia page, it seems they would be quite similar.  I'm fairly confident Kang would join Loretta Sanchez in the blue dog caucus if he were to be elected to congress this year.

            Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

            by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:08:17 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  If Kang is a moderate, that's helpful (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY

              I assumed not because few elected California Democrats are.  Loretta Sanchez is a Blue Dog, but not a moderate.  So if he's like her, that doesn't help.

              19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
              politicohen.com
              Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
              UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

              by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:40:49 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  From the vibes he gives off (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                I doubt he would want to be associated with Sanchez, and in this sense, would probably vote like a typical blue dog moderate, and not like Sanchez.

                He was very focused on building up the Irvine Business community.  Here is an anecdote about that, Sukhee would occasionaly come into the Irvine office, and take all the interns and volunteers out to lunch.  in just about EVERY restraunt we went too when he was there, the manager knew who he was.  That is how close he is with the business community, and is likely why he won his re-election as Mayor of Irvine with 62% of the vote in 2010.

                Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

                by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:23:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

        •  2010 was pretty devastating in California too (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY, jncca

          the devastation was just measured to the point where it didn't cause any actual losses. but you'll have trouble convincing me that people like Jim Costa and Jerry McNerney would be in trouble if there weren't some kind of red wave.

          Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

          by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:27:55 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't know about that logic (0+ / 0-)

            How devastating is an election if there are no losses?  Sure, there were a few districts that were competitive, but they were in rural areas, and they pulled through

            Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

            by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:25:29 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  CA-09 isn't very rural (2+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              MichaelNY, sacman701

              CA-18 has an urban base (Stockton) and CD-20 had two (Fresno/Bakersfield). Again, you can't really convince me that those elections would have been that close without a Republican wave. It may not have been devastation in the sense of losing, but we certainly had to fight much harder and expend more resources than in a neutral year.

              Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

              by sapelcovits on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 09:34:43 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Sounds like it might be possible (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      to defeat him, but what makes you so confident beyond the interesting but general changes you describe above? Why hasn't the DCCC been involved yet?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:33:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Because he's going to lose by like 12 points. (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, MichaelNY

        Keeper of the DKE glossary. Priceless: worth a lot; not for sale.

        by SaoMagnifico on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:34:55 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We'll see (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          ArkDem14, MichaelNY

          I'm sure you would have said the same thing about Bill Hedrick back in 08

          Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

          by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:16:22 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think we were so focused CA-04 (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY, sapelcovits

            Getting Charlie Brown elected that Hedrick's race was off the radar. I regret not voting absentee for him (instead I cast my ballot in a safe D district)

            PS:is it just me or did the folks on wikipedia get more artistic in drawing district lines?

            http://en.wikipedia.org/...

            "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

            by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:35:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  probably more like 8 (5+ / 0-)

          Dems got just 33% of the primary vote, but in 2008 in Campbell's old district they improved their vote share from the primary to the general by 11 points, so based on that the baseline would be 56-44. Kang has much more $ than that dude had so you might expect him to do a bit better. There are other factors that make it hard to predict as both the top 2 primary and the new territory in the district may scramble the relationship between the  primary vote and the general vote. Best guess is that Campbell wins 54-46 or so.

          SSP poster. 43, new CA-6, -0.25/-3.90

          by sacman701 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:34:14 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  While I did intern on this race (4+ / 0-)

        I was not privy to much information outside of managing field work and phones.  What the campaign manager said to me as to why Kang never got any DCCC funding was because the org had looked at the demographics and registration numbers in the district and said it was not winnable.

        Again, I'm not privy to much info, but it seems like they tried to get the DCCC involved, but they would have none of it.

        I'm not exactly confident, but I do think people aren't giving it the attention it deserves strictly due to looking at the 08 presidential numbers as a high watermark that will never be attained again.  While I can confidently say that may be the case in the other 49 states, I firmly believe California is different in this respect.

        Things that make me think this race is winnable in general: Sukhee actually has a decent chunk of change to work with due to essentially being a superstar in the Korean community.  He has flown across the country doing fundraisers, and let me tell you, I've scanned the checks for the FEC, and these folks are extremely generous.  I cannot tell you how many times korean media came to the office to do interviews with Sukhee, it astounded me.  I only wish the english language media did the same thing, as I think the single largest factor that will make us lose this race is low name rec.  While Irvine is one of the larger Orange County cities, If I was not as in tune to local and national politics as I was, I would have no idea he was mayor of Irvine (Disclaimer, I don't live in the district, so this is not a statement as to how effective their mail campaign is, as I really don't know).  Luckily, the ballots in CA allow candidates to list their occupation.

        There are other factors though.  UCI has a large asian population that perhaps in the past never felt the need to register to vote, but with an asian american on the ballot, it may get quite a large number of them to register and vote.  They have field going out everyday from two offices, and Sukhee does quite a bit of walking as well.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

        by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:57:27 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  The problem here is what you see is a weakness (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      is a strength.  There will be a lot of Obama/Campbell voters because he fits the middle of the district well.  He's in the left half of the GOP congresscritters, and the fact the wingnuts don't like him is a positive in this district.

      If Issa was from this district, you could make a plausible case for competitiveness, but a relatively moderate Republican is a great match for this district.  

      Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

      by tommypaine on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:41:08 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Where does this come from? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca, Daman09

         John Campbell is a certified birther, and no moderate. Just saying.

        http://www.snappac.org/ Students for a New American Politics!

        by redrelic17 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:43:12 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  he's not very moderate (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Daman09, sapelcovits

        he's like Jeff Flake, very very conservative economically and somewhat libertarian.  So he'll ally with us on some social stuff.  But he's one of the 20 most conservative members of the House, for sure.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:49:04 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  LOL, how do you figure? (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          If you don't rank people by how they vote, what is your metric?

          Some odd comments here.  The dude voted for TARP and DADT for starters.  None of the 20 most conservative members did that, or voted for anything Nancy Pelosi did for that matter.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:52:32 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Well, let's see (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            MichaelNY

            DW-Nominate says he has a score of .757

            That puts him to the left of:
            Shadegg, Franks, Stutzman, Graves, Broun, Paul, and Flake.

            That's it.
            There's your evidence.

            19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
            politicohen.com
            Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
            UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

            by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:41:53 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  DW-Nominate and Progressive Punch (0+ / 0-)

              So this is an instance in which DW-Nominate and Progressive Punch part company. Can you (or someone else) please explain why that is? What's the difference between what or how they measure, that leads to such a discrepancy?

              Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

              by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 08:50:21 PM PDT

              [ Parent ]

              •  I'm not sure you'll come back and read this (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                MichaelNY

                since it's already late Saturday, but...

                DW Nominate focuses much more on economics, because it weights every vote evenly.

                Progressive Punch uses "key votes" which usually means hot button things: cap and trade, stimulus, Dodd Frank, DADT repeal, etc.  While most of those are still economic, I think fewer of them are.

                Campbell is also (like Paul or Amash) one of those guys who is often in the 10 or 15 Republicans voting against a "suspension" bill.  Those usually resolve technicalities or do other minor things.

                19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
                politicohen.com
                Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
                UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

                by jncca on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 04:05:05 PM PDT

                [ Parent ]

      •  Have to agree with redrelic17 (5+ / 0-)

        He is more libertarian than anything.  His famous pouding by Chris Matthews over the birther bill removed any moderate label that could be attached to him.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

        by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:10:49 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  So what? Birtherism isn't a leg issue (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          MichaelNY

          Some of you guys seem to think all Republicans are in the right half of the Republican caucus.  It's impossible.  

          90% of the left half of the Republican caucus are very conservative overall, but relative to the Republican members of Congress, Campbell votes with the majority of Dems more often than half of the Republicans do, at least.

          Mr. Gorbachev, establish an Electoral College!

          by tommypaine on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:55:51 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  When tommypaine says a Dem can't win... (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        sapelcovits, MichaelNY, jncca

        ...then the Dem can't win!

        44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

        by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:29:22 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Fight the good fight soldier! (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, sapelcovits

      I'll be curious to see you diary

      "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:24:18 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Thanks (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        There is only so much I can throw in a rapid fire comment.  A well thought out diary on this race may be more persuasive to those who think Kang will go down in a 12 point loss.

        Swingnut since 2009, 21, Male, Democrat, CA-49 (home) CA-14 (college) Join r/elections on reddit! Support Sukhee Kang for CA-45!

        by Daman09 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:27:20 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Just to be clear (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sawolf, MichaelNY

          Safe D or Safe R does not mean "blowout win/loss." It just means we don't see a path to victory. As several folks have noted, upsets of incumbents without national party support in opposite-party districts in non-wave years (in other words, the situation we have here) are exceedingly rare.

          Political Director, Daily Kos

          by David Nir on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:02:45 PM PDT

          [ Parent ]

      •  your* (0+ / 0-)

        "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

        by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:28:58 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Why is there no OFA web ad on Romney quip (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    bumiputera, MichaelNY

    about not mentioning vets or troops because they're not important? I know getting an ad to television quality will take a couple days, but a web ad could be up now to push that story.  

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:36:02 PM PDT

    •  awesome! (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      "The essence of that kind of campaign is this. To avoid the issues you work up bogus issues. Trying to play on the fears of people, because if you talk about the real issues you may lose votes" -Helen Gahagan Douglas on Nixon (US Senate 1950)

      by lordpet8 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:19:17 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  KS-St. Sen: Defection alert at DEFCON 2! (7+ / 0-)

    St. Sen. Jean Schodorf (R-Witchita) is leaving the GOP after she lost her primary.  She may become a Dem or an Indie.
    http://www.ksn.com/...

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:45:51 PM PDT

  •  CD-39/CD-45 (0+ / 0-)

    In the Race Ratings I assume this is a typo for CA-39/CA-45.  I spent 10 seconds trying to figure out what state CD stood for before going ahead and reading the blurb where it is spelled out.

  •  Pres Obama's first interview after DNC Conv. with (8+ / 0-)

    CBS' Scott Pelley -

    President Obama will give his first post-DNC interview to “CBS Evening News” anchor Scott Pelley tomorrow in St. Petersburg, FL. Excerpts will run on “Face the Nation” Sunday and “CBS This Morning” Monday, with the full interview to air on the “CBS Evening News” next week.

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:51:44 PM PDT

  •  Viewer numbers in for Pres Obama speech - (6+ / 0-)

    27.63M from the networks.  Romney pulled in 25.29M from the same six networks.  

    We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

    by Jacoby Jonze on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 01:56:47 PM PDT

  •  so I'm listening to the renomination (5+ / 0-)

    speech Obama gave last night, having not been able to watch it at the time.  Next up on my playlist is FDR's 1936 convention speech, IMHO one of the best speeches in American political history, better certainly than any other FDR gave.

    •  That's hard (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY

      Because FDR gave so many good speeches.

      "Once, many, many years ago I thought I was wrong. Of course it turned out I had been right all along. But I was wrong to have thought I was wrong." -John Foster Dulles. My Political Compass Score: -4.00, -3.69, Proud member of DKE

      by ArkDem14 on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:57:19 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  under the radar candidate replacements (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    James Allen, KingofSpades

    Mississippi Dems replaced Crystal Biggs (MS3) and Mike Herrington (MS4) with Vicki Slater (MS3) and Matthew Moore (MS4). Slater is an attorney with ties to trial lawyers in her area. Moore is in his mid-30s going to a community college

    the Republicans want the Dems to prove that Biggs/Herrington left for legal reasons (illness [Biggs]/financial hardship [Herrington]). So with 2/3rds of the people deciding the ballot being Republicans, the Republicans may choose to just let Harper and Palazzo win without Dem opposition

    http://www.wdam.com/...

    The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

    by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 02:53:12 PM PDT

    •  extra notes (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      KingofSpades

      with Hallum out, the Green replacing him is the predecessor who was kicked out of office due to a conviction (that was overturned in 2012). So the Green is a Dem.

      And Louisiana's Presidential ballot is almost final, as filing ends today... so here's the minor party candidates

      Libertarian: Gary Johnson/James Gray
      Constitution: Virgil Goode/James Clymer
      Justice: Rocky Anderson/Luis Rodriguez
      Prohibition: Jack Fellure/Toby Davis
      Socialism & Liberation: Peta Lindsay/Yari Osorio
      Socialist Equality: Jerry White/Phyllis Scherrer - Socialist Equality
      Socialist Workers: James Harris/Alyson Kennedy
      We the People: Sheila "Sam" Tittle/Matthew Turner

      Might as well wait a bit to see if Jill Stein (Green Party) actually filed here.

      The 2008 results were McCain 59, Obama 40, Ron Paul 0.48, McKinney 0.47, Nader 0.36, Baldwin 0.13, Harris 0.04, La Riva (PSL) 0.02, Amondson (Prohibition) 0.01

      So the 3rd place group (dudes who put Ron Paul on the ballot without his consent), the 4th place group (The Greens), and the 5th place group (Nader) are not returning to the ballot. But the Libertarians are on the ballot in Louisiana for the first time since their 5th place (0.14%) in 2004. Rocky Anderson is probably Nader-supported.

      The Prohibition Party will likely be on just the ballots in Louisiana, having failed to quality in extremely easy Presidential ballot access states like Colorado and Florida.

      Should be fun to see who gets the protest votes. Since the "we like generic names" vote could split between Johnson and Anderson. Fellure probably finishes last

      The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

      by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 03:10:03 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  update (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        KingofSpades

        Jill Stein did file in Louisiana. Good news for the 39 Louisiana Greens.

        Mississippi's deadline for Presidential candidates is also today, so the number of random 3rd party candidates who will make their ballot will be known in a few days (Mississippi still has one of the worst secretary of state websites in the nation, as opposed to Louisiana, who has one of the best). Mississippi requires the party be "organized", which is a pretty lenient standard. I believe it involves having party officers and elector candidates.

        Mississippi's minor candidates in 2008 were Nader, Baldwin, Barr, McKinney and Reform Party nominee Ted C. Weill.

        The Republican Party isn't a party of small government, it's a party of a government for the few. @bhindepmo

        by RBH on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:19:46 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  538 just updated and Obama still rising (5+ / 0-)

    despite the mediocre unemployment report, to another new high of 78.1% overall win probability. I'm guessing the movement in the trackers must have helped.

    Obama is now getting some pretty impressive win probabilities even in the contested states: 83% in NV and NH, and 82% in WI.  PA and MI are well into the 90s, while NC  is back under 60% and upgraded to tossup from lean Romney. If you add up safe/likely states on both sides it's 257-191 Obama, and he leads in all bar one of the remaining 6 states. Even his chances of a landslide have been creeping up recently and are now nearly 10%.

    Intuitively I feel the model's got a bit ahead of itself, but for now at least it's pointing unequivocally towards an Obama victory.

  •  National Police Union (14+ / 0-)

    says "No" to Romney!

    This one's for you, jj:

    Mitt Romney has been turned away by a large union whose endorsement he hoped to win.

    The 330,000-member Fraternal Order of Police, the country’s largest police union, announced that it would back no candidate for president this year, the first time the group had passed on an endorsement in its 98-year history. The union backed the Republican nominees in 2000, 2004 and 2008, and backed President Bill Clinton in 1996.

    http://blogs.wsj.com/...
  •  Reuters/Ipsos: Obama +2 (46-44) (8+ / 0-)

    http://in.reuters.com/...

    It was Romney +1 yesterday and +2 two days ago.

    We may only have three crappy trackers at the moment, but at least they all moved to Obama in unison.

    It also shows Operation Like Romney as a massive fail:

    Asked who was the more likable candidate, 52 percent of registered voters surveyed favored Obama compared to 29 percent for Romney. Among independents, Obama enjoyed a likability advantage of 50 percent to 22 percent for Romney.
    •  I'm not convinced these aren't all response bias (0+ / 0-)

      In fact, I've been wondering to myself tonight if most polling "bounces" aren't really just response bias.

      It would be no surprise if polls done on the evenings of the DNC just managed to get a disproportionate share of excited Obama voters answering their phones and willing to sit through the surveys.

      I'll believe there is real change in voter sentiment only if we see an Obama surge sticking for a couple weeks.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 06:50:34 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  thing is, response bias (0+ / 0-)

        can lead to an enthusiasm gap.  So even if something IS response bias, that can be quite relevant if it helps our side's turnout.

        19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
        politicohen.com
        Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
        UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

        by jncca on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 07:45:43 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I could see Obama getting a sustained bump (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MichaelNY

        I'm not expecting a big bounce, if any, but one running fact has been Obama doing much worse in polls of likely voters than polls of registered voters. If the convention and the debates help rally soft Obama supporters to turn out, that could boost him from being only narrowly ahead (i.e. 1-2 points), to something more substantial, like around 3-4 points or even 5.

  •  Oregon state senate (6+ / 0-)

    Senator Brian Boquist (R-SD12) received a $45,000 contribution from self-described "sex hypnotist" Loren Parks.

    The article notes that Parks has been a big spender in Oregon for Republicans and conservative causes (especially those associated with Kevin Mannix), and gave big to the Republican state senate committee last time, but now notes that he's given big to Boquist in particular.  Why?  They don't really explain beyond noting that Boquist has been contributing to the coordinated senate campaign committee.

    This may be more of an indication, though, that Boquist is trying to become Oregon's Jim Demint.  I'd heard earlier this year that Boquist had raised hundreds of thousands of dollars to help push out apparent "moderates" in the Republican state senate caucus and replace them with conservatives, already succeeding in forcing Jason Atkinson to retire, and now this is going to push me to look into whether he had a role in the primary defeat of Chris Telfer of Bend by a more conservative candidate.

    And putting another stumbling block in the way of Boquist et al at taking a majority in the lege, the Oregon Business Association has issued endorsements, endorsing Republican State Reps Shawn Lindsay, Matt Wand, Julie Parrish, and Patrick Sheehan (who they declined to endorse in 2010) who are all in tough battles to win a second term, but also endorsing Democratic Senator Laurie Monnes Anderson and State Rep Jeff Barker, who are the Republicans' top targets in each chamber.

    ...better the occasional faults of a government that lives in a spirit of charity, than the consistent omissions of a government frozen in the ice of its own indifference. -FDR, 1936

    by James Allen on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 04:39:56 PM PDT

  •  FL-26 rating change (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    SaoMagnifico

    All your ratings changes are reasonable, but why are you not ready to re-rate FL-26 as Lean-D?

    Formerly Pan on Swing State Project

    by MichaelNY on Fri Sep 07, 2012 at 05:08:13 PM PDT

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