Can we deduce the size of the upcoming Gallup bounce based on today's Job Approval and head-to-head polling data? I think some inferences can be drawn. Here are recent Job Approval numbers from Gallup:

Actual Gallup Numbers
3-Days   Approve  Disapprove  Margin

08/28-30      45      46        -1
08/29-31      45      46        -1
08/30-09/1    43     48        -5
08/31-09/2    45     48        -3
09/1-3        45       48        -3
09/2-4        47       47        +0
09/3-5        49       45        +4
09/4-6        52       43        +9

What we know from these 3-day averages is that the polling for Thursday specifically must have been about 15 points better than the polling for Monday. Because when Thursday's number was added and Monday's number dropped out of the average, Obama's lead grew from 4 to 9, a gain of 5 points. To move the average 5 points would require a one day improvement of 15 points. So we can work backwards and make a guess about the specific days numbers. Like this:

Specific Day Estimates
Date      Appr    Disappr
9/2         46     48
9/3         47     47
9/4         48     46
9/5         52     42
9/6         55     40

If you compute 3-day averages using my estimates for each day, they should work out to match the numbers in the above chart.

My only conclusion is that Thursday was an awesome polling day for us and Wednesday was pretty darn good too. Friday's number will replace the 48/46 numbers for Tuesday. If it's anything like the last 2 days, the Approval Gap could go from +9 to maybe +12.

But what does this tell us about the 7-day-tracker pitting Obama against Romney? Is it reasonable to assume that a rise in Job Approval for Obama will also move his head-to-head number? I think it's reasonable but it's hard to compare given the 3-day window vs. the 7-day window. And sometimes these numbers don't always move in the same direction. One reason they don't is that asking people about their Obama job approval doesn't say anything about Romney. Over the last several months there have been times when Obama job approval lagged but his lead over Romney remained or even edged up, based mostly on negative news about Romney.

Nevertheless, as we go closer and closer to election day these numbers will likely move in concert. Here are the recent Gallup head-to-head numbers:

Official Gallup Numbers

Date Range         O      R     O lead
08/22-28/2012     47     46     1
08/23-29/2012     47     46     1
08/24-30/2012     47     46     1
08/25-31/2012     47     46     1
08/26-09/1/2012    47    46    1
08/27-09/2/2012    47    46    1
08/28-09/3/2012    47    46    1
08/29-09/4/2012    47    46    1
08/30-09/5/2012    47    46    1
08/31-09/6/2012    48    45    3

Using the same logic as above, how big does Thursday's number have to have been relative to the departing Thursday number from a week ago to move the 7-day average here up 2 points? Answer: about 14 points better than last Thursday.

So, a poll that didn't budge for 9 days improved 2 points for Obama in a single day. Day-to-day numbers could look like these:

8/28      47     46
8/29      47     46
8/30      47     46
8/31      47     46
9/1       47      46
9/2       47      46
9/3       47      46
9/4       48      45
9/5       49      45
9/6       55      40

While it's unlikely the daily numbers were quite that smooth during the RNC we know they didn't vary much or the average would have shifted a little at some point. I have Thursday's number 14 points better than the previous Thursday number to account for the sudden 2-point improvement we saw in today's release.

You'll notice the last numbers, yesterday's, are the same in both the Approval tracker and the head-to-head tracker:  55 and 40.  While the "real" numbers may not be identical I do believe they are somewhere near this magnitude and likely similar to each other.

So how much will the Gallup tracker move? It depends on how many days like Thursday show up in their results. Nate Silver suggests bounces can last weeks. If so, we may see a sizable bounce number from Gallup. Possibly nearing double digits. Of course, other pollsters (yes, Rasmussen) aren't going to show as big a move. The average of the bounce numbers might be around 5 according to Nate's latest post. All three tracking polls, even Rasmussen, showed improvement for Obama today.

The other question is how much of the bounce will fade away. If voters solidified their decisions over the last 2 weeks, some of the bounce may not be a bounce at all but a new normal.

#### Tags

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
 Unpublish Diary (The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.) Delete Diary (The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

#### Comment Preferences

• ##### Tip Jar(18+ / 0-)

Confusing stuff in italics at the end of my comment.

• ##### New normal. I like the sound of that. (9+ / 0-)

"listen: there's a hell of a good universe next door; let's go." --ee cummings

• ##### Couple of things:(4+ / 0-)
Recommended by:

1.  The upcoming carpet bombing by W. Mitt may hurt his numbers.

2.  The numbers may be artificially inflated in order to set the President up for an "epic collapse" narrative.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

• ##### Can it(2+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
zenbassoon, OleHippieChick

Hurt after the last four years, and the attack ads already being aired....at some point people tune out.  Maybe that is just my hopeful,self speaking.

• ##### True. What haven't they said about Obama?(0+ / 0-)

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

[ Parent ]

• ##### Question (0+ / 0-)

I notice the Gallup is RV instead of LV - seems like Obama does better on polls with RV vs. LV. Would a RV poll reflect a bigger bounce than a LV poll?

"Just imagine a work of such magnitude that it actually mirrors the whole world....In it all of nature finds a voice." Gustav Mahler on his 3rd Symphony

• ##### Dem RV's to LV's fall off faster than the Rep(0+ / 0-)

RV to LV's do. Nate mentioned in his NOWCAST the other day this... The NOWCAST, (if I have the term right) was mentioned in his article. Posted on 538 blogsite.

RV's -- Dem's have a 91% chance to win the election.
LV's--- Dem's have a 68% chance to win the election.

Because Dems are poorer, less likely to have a car, or reliable transportation, and are more minority, Nate mentioned a bigger drop to LV's rates is always more likely for Dems. He allows several points differential for this.

• ##### a lot of pollster's have been saying there are(0+ / 0-)

very few undecided voters, compared to this time in previous campaigns. If so, and if there was any kind of a sustainable bounce for president Obama of even 1-3 percentage points, that's still, potentially, huge in terms of positioning the president for the last two months of the campaign. Unfortunately, the jobs numbers put a bit of a damper on the news coming out of the convention and the news networks seemed to have gone very negative on the president pretty quickly as a result.

Hopefully, most voters got the message that Republicans are part of the problem, not the solution, while Democrats are trying to at least be part of the solution,

• ##### Head to Head polling from Thurs or Fri...(1+ / 0-)
Recommended by:
Sylv

...must have shown a massive jump.  It seems like the numbers were almost too good.  Did Obama poll 55% in the matchup numbers on Friday?  That's what the numbers seem like to me.

I don't think this is a 10-point election, but I also think Obama will have a decisive victory.  The convention reminded people why they liked him.  That's why we see the approval jumping as well.

If the trend continues, Romney should be worried.  It was about this time last election that McCain realized it was over.

• ##### issue is jobs number...(0+ / 0-)

but maybe going down to 8.1% as the headline actually fools low info voters...

hope this works out....because it could deflate Rs seriously...

“Mitt Romney is the only person in America who looked at the way this Congress is behaving and said, ‘I want the brains behind THAT operation.’ ” Former Democratic Congressman - Tom Perriello "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - MHP