Skip to main content

These are the three daily trackers. The numbers in parenthesis are yesterday's numbers. The convention bounce is the difference between the last pre-convention poll and today's.

Rasmussen (3-day rolling sample)
Obama 46 (45)
Romney 44 (46)

Obama bounce: +5

Gallup (7-day rolling sample for horserace, 3-day for favorabilities)
Obama 49
Romney 45

Obama bounce: +4

Obama favorable job approval 52 (52)
Obama unfavorable job approval 42 (43)

Obama bounce: +13

Reuters/Ipsos (4-day rolling sample) (See update II below)
Obama 46 (46 44)
Romney 44 (44 45)

Obama bounce: +4

Note, none of these numbers include entirely post-DNC samples. That won't happen until Monday for Ras, Tuesday for Reuters/Ipsos, and next Saturday for Gallup. So we won't have the full convention-bounce picture for a while. Indeed, today is the first Gallup sample that is entirely post-Republican convention.

But given that Mitt Romney's "bounce" was less than two points (more like 1.6 points, or "float within the MoE"), Obama has already more than doubled that. Unless there's a major hit from Friday's job numbers report, expect Obama's bounce to continue growing over the next several days.

Remember when the Romney campaign argued that they'd hit the historical average 11-point convention bounce for a challenger? Well, they didn't. But in those same documents, they noted that the average convention bounce for an incumbent was seven points. Obama may very well hit that, which would be nothing short of incredible given today's fragmented media environment and highly polarized partisan atmosphere.

Update: Reuters/Ipsos polls during the day and updates in the evening. So the numbers above, which I originally mistook for new numbers, are actually last night's.

So Reuters/Ipsos isn't flat through two days. Or at least, we won't know one way or another until tonight.

Update II: And the new Reuters/Ipsos numbers are out, and Obama has gained another two points:

Reuters/Ipsos (4-day rolling sample)
Obama 47 (46)
Romney 43 (44)

Obama bounce: +6

Originally posted to kos on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 10:31 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site