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These are the three daily trackers. The numbers in parenthesis are yesterday's numbers. The convention bounce is the difference between the last pre-convention poll and today's.

Rasmussen (3-day rolling sample)
Obama 46 (45)
Romney 44 (46)

Obama bounce: +5

Gallup (7-day rolling sample for horserace, 3-day for favorabilities)
Obama 49
Romney 45

Obama bounce: +4

Obama favorable job approval 52 (52)
Obama unfavorable job approval 42 (43)

Obama bounce: +13

Reuters/Ipsos (4-day rolling sample) (See update II below)
Obama 46 (46 44)
Romney 44 (44 45)

Obama bounce: +4

Note, none of these numbers include entirely post-DNC samples. That won't happen until Monday for Ras, Tuesday for Reuters/Ipsos, and next Saturday for Gallup. So we won't have the full convention-bounce picture for a while. Indeed, today is the first Gallup sample that is entirely post-Republican convention.

But given that Mitt Romney's "bounce" was less than two points (more like 1.6 points, or "float within the MoE"), Obama has already more than doubled that. Unless there's a major hit from Friday's job numbers report, expect Obama's bounce to continue growing over the next several days.

Remember when the Romney campaign argued that they'd hit the historical average 11-point convention bounce for a challenger? Well, they didn't. But in those same documents, they noted that the average convention bounce for an incumbent was seven points. Obama may very well hit that, which would be nothing short of incredible given today's fragmented media environment and highly polarized partisan atmosphere.

Update: Reuters/Ipsos polls during the day and updates in the evening. So the numbers above, which I originally mistook for new numbers, are actually last night's.

So Reuters/Ipsos isn't flat through two days. Or at least, we won't know one way or another until tonight.

Update II: And the new Reuters/Ipsos numbers are out, and Obama has gained another two points:

Reuters/Ipsos (4-day rolling sample)
Obama 47 (46)
Romney 43 (44)

Obama bounce: +6

Originally posted to kos on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 10:31 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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