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Above chart is Gallup, Ipsos/Reuters, Rasmussen trackers only, during the convention weeks.

There have been a pretty large number of political reporters who think the August jobs number is an election game changer (it's not) and are just flat out wrong about the story.

Here's WSJ:

Obama Convention Bounce Looking Less Likely
Here's the NY Post:
Flat job stats kill Obama’s bounce after convention
Oh, really? They must have been shocked by these:
today's Obama bounce


President Barack Obama, picking up support following the Democratic National Convention, widened his narrow lead over Republican U.S. presidential challenger Mitt Romney in a new Reuters/Ipsos poll [Obama 47-Romney 43] released on Saturday.
The president is enjoying a convention bounce [Obama leads 46-44] that has been evident in the last two nights of tracking data. He led by two just before the Republican convention, so he has already erased the modest bounce Romney received from his party’s celebration in Tampa. Perhaps more significantly, Democratic interest in the campaign has soared. For the first time, those in the president’s party are following the campaign as closely as GOP voters. Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.
I think the Rasmussen poll has flawed methodology, but there it is. In a storm, all reeds bend the same way, even the thin ones.

As for interest, remember Pew from August:

interest in campaign goes up after conventions

Jonathan Bernstein (the poli sci brother):

What was the biggest difference between the Tampa Republicans and the Charlotte Democrats? That’s easy: substance. Policy substance, that is. Bill Clinton’s tour de force on Wednesday night was a substantive defense of Barack Obama’s accomplishments and attacks on Mitt Romney’s proposals. Obama, too, got a little on the wonky side; the first half of his speech reminded people of a State of the Union, with a laundry list of programs to defend and propose. In Tampa? Not so much. Lots of effect, but a lot less policy.

Paul Ryan, we were all told when he was selected, was a wonk; his selection meant that we were going to have a big ideas debate. And yet his vice-presidential speech was anything but, and what substance he did include was blasted by the fact checkers.

Ron Brownstein:
Perhaps because of Romney’s own multiple degrees from Harvard, Republicans last week didn’t stress another strand of traditional conservative populism: the portrayal of Democrats as the champions of a cultural elite contemptuous of average Americans. But with that exception, the race now features each side wielding the classic populist argument encapsulated in those dueling three-word jabs: “doesn’t see it” versus “not for us.”

“Going all the way back through the 20th century,” notes Michael Kazin, a Georgetown University historian who has written extensively on populism, “conservatives try to rally the middle-class against the liberal [intellectual] elite and the poor on the bottom, while liberals try to rally the poor, the middle-class, and the working class against the economic elite.”

Occupy vs Tea Party? How can that be? Everyone knows Occupy failed. Oh, wait...


Nearly six-in-ten adults (58%) say that upper-income people pay too little in federal taxes. One-in-four (26%) say upper-income people pay their fair share in taxes, and 8% say they pay too much in taxes.
views on tax paying
Ed Kilgore, building on that:
Without question, big parts of this campaign have revolved around [pleas] for middle-class folk to “kick up” against wealthy predators demanding still more tax cuts or “kick down” towards those people and their union-thug and bureaucrat buddies...

So the “kick down” efforts of the GOP are not just based on mischaracterizations of Obama’s record as part of the obsessive drive to make the election a “referendum” on the last four years, but also on the powerful beliefs of conservative activists about the period prior to 2009. Because these beliefs are not that widely shared beyond Tea Folk circles, Republicans are vulnerable to the very counter-argument Democrats are seeking to make: we know wealthy predators like Romney and the people financing his campaign are to be feared and avoided because they got us into this mess in the first place. And so the GOP appeal to “kick-down” class resentment has had to get cruder and more racial as the campaign has proceeded, with Obamacare and “gutting welfare reform” presented as a new threat to white middle-class families, even as they represent continuations of the assault on America building for years to the “base.” That’s one reason GOP efforts to half-heartedly suggest they think Obama is feckless rather than evil are not very convincing: to big elements of “the base,” the terrible things he’s done since taking office are exactly what they expected, and will be read into everything he says and does whether or not it makes sense to the non-initiated.

David S. Bernstein (the journo brother) on Romney's major fail on the C-in-C thang:
Let's pick our jaws off the floor and review the three arguments that Romney  employed here, to counter the charge of insensitivity to the troops at war by omitting them in his big speech.

1) I would have gotten away with it if you would all just shut up about it.

2) It was a conscious decision that the troops at war are not important.

3) I consider soldiers to be no different than any other military asset.

I'm flabbergasted.

How, how in the world, in a Presidential campaign at this stage, with this candidate, on this issue, can his team send him out with that rank idiocy to say in response to a known question coming?

The answer is glaringly simple: he and his campaign are not up to the job.

Matt Bai on Kasich vs Obama in Ohio, explaining the stimulus and its lack of popularity:

Obama’s first remedy of choice, the stimulus package worth more than $800 billion, remains unpopular. This is partly because three years later, the stimulus doesn’t really seem to have stimulated much real growth. But it’s also because a lot of the short-term assistance that came to states during that time wasn’t really visible to the public; it was used to maintain existing commitments to social programs and capital projects, the kinds of things that would have been noticed only had they suddenly disappeared — which could well have happened without federal intervention.
Speaking of Ohio, even Politico can't slant them all Romney's way:
President Barack Obama heads out of the national political conventions with a much clearer path to winning, top advisers to Mitt Romney privately concede.

The Romney campaign, while pleasantly surprised by Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance, said the post-convention bounce they hoped for fell well short of expectations and privately lament that state-by-state polling numbers — most glaringly in Ohio — are working in the president’s favor.

Ross Douthat writes about losing.  Not his intent, maybe, but that's what he is doing.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Nate says... (26+ / 0-)
    But on Friday, I wrote that Mr. Obama might eventually hold about a five-point lead over Mr. Romney once the tracking polls fully rolled over to post-convention data. Now it looks like his advantage could potentially be a bit larger than that, depending on how long the bounce holds. Despite a mediocre jobs report on Friday, there were no signs in the polls that Mr. Obama’s bounce had immediately receded, as he gained further ground in the surveys that were released on Saturday.

    Earlier in the week of the convention, before there was any data on the magnitude of Mr. Obama’s bounce, I used a series of golf metaphors to serve as a guide to interpreting the postconvention numbers. By that nomenclature, it now appears that Mr. Obama is on track for a “birdie” convention, meaning that he would exit the conventions in a somewhat stronger position than where he entered them.

    "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

    by Greg Dworkin on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:10:27 AM PDT

    •  more.. (20+ / 0-)
      I will acknowledge that there is the risk of jumping the gun with this analysis. Our forecast model began to see Mr. Romney’s subpar convention bounce as a bearish indicator for him early during his convention week. Now that Mr. Obama appears to be making gains when Mr. Romney did not, it has become more entrenched in seeing Mr. Obama as the favorite — enough so that it now gives him almost a 4-in-5 chance of victory. Taking the temperature of voters around the party conventions is tricky: it is a period when a lot of undecided voters start to tune in for the first time, but it is also associated with volatile polling. Every election is different, and no statistical method to analyze them is beyond reproach.

      But in the immediate term, it seems like the upside case for Mr. Romney is that Mr. Obama’s polls cool off quickly — and soon revert to where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama about two points ahead in the polling average. That’s certainly a very winnable election for Mr. Romney, but nevertheless one where he is the modest underdog.

      I'd rather be Obama than Romney, but that's true on every issue.

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:12:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  ahoulsnt there be an IF somewhere in this (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Floande, HudsonValleyMark


        But in the immediate term, it seems like the upside case for Mr. Romney is that Mr. Obama’s polls cool off quickly — and soon revert to where they were before the conventions, with Mr. Obama about two points ahead in the polling average.
        or do we already know that Obamas polls cooled off quickly?
        since it is only sunday and the convention ended thursday
        thats really quick.

        "It's never too late to be who you might have been." -George Eliot

        by live1 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:28:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  How long do bounces last (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        A history:

        I would be very, very afraid if I was Romney.  The only instance of an incumbent bounce fading significantly before the first debate was in 1992.

        A couple of notes:
        The first debate in 1980 did not include Carter (it was Andersen and reagan only).
        The '92 end of September numbers are very skewed by speculation about Perot getting back in the race.  Frankly they are so contradictory I am not sure what conclusion you can draw.
        In both 2000 and 2004 the first debate remade the race.  In 2004 Kerry cut a six point lead to two, and the race remained about there until the end.  
        In 2000 the pre-debate polling showed Gore up about 3, post debate polling showed Bush up 1. Bush would hold a narrow lead thereafter until the last weekend.

        The bitter truth of deep inequality has been disguised by an era of cheap imported goods and the anyone-can-make-it celebrity myth - Polly Toynbee

        by fladem on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:46:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Wait.. I thought you threw out Ras and Gallup..?? (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Amber6541, Greg Dworkin

        Now, they comprise 2/3's of your (and Nate's apparently) argument for some big bounce for Obama?  Without the jobs numbers included?

        I'd rather be Obama too, because it does look like a small but solid bounce.  But as Nate points out, these things tend to "cool off quickly".

        But then.. you got a diary to write about this stuff and must use the numbers you got, so I guess have at it!

        •  ha ha (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          explanation: during convention week, there are only 4 consistent polls for tracking purposes:

          Rasmussen, Gallup, Ipsos and RAND. And RAND doesn't make it into the pollster data base.

          That's all we have. So we are looking at them. How else to measure a bounce?

          Gallup, in this case, has the most extensive data base of historical bounce.

          After the convention period, as I have said all along, we will reevaluate. I suspect I personally will exclude Gallup and Rasmussen when everyone else starts polling again,. but include at least Gallup when polling becomes more frequent, so the every day nature doesn't skew the data.  I am uncertain whether I will ever incude rasmussen.

          "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

          by Greg Dworkin on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:40:54 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  The RAND poll is really interesting as they (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      singe, One Opinion, Amber6541

      poll the same respondents weekly since July 5th so the swing there is with folks that have been persuaded to change their vote.


      A fourth tracking poll, conducted online by the RAND Corporation’s American Life Panel, had Mr. Obama three percentage points ahead of Mr. Romney in the survey it published early Saturday morning; the candidates had been virtually tied in the poll on Friday. (The RAND survey has an interesting methodology — we’ll explore it more in a separate post.)
      From the RAND page:
      Why This Poll Is Different

      First, it allows us to ask the same people for their opinion repeatedly over time. In comparison to most polls, this leads to much more stable outcomes; changes that we see are true changes in people's opinions and not the result of random fluctuations in who gets asked the questions.

      Second, we may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial “middle” (i.e., not closely aligned with either candidate) by allowing respondents to more precisely assign their own numerical probability (or percent chance) to both the likelihood that they will vote and the likelihood that they will vote for a particular candidate. By comparison, traditional polls may not be fully capturing the intentions of these voters because they rely on less precise qualitative metrics (such as somewhat likely and somewhat unlikely) when asking respondents to indicate for whom they may vote and the likelihood that they will vote.
      How the Poll Works

      Since July 5, 3,500 participants in the RAND American Life Panel (all U.S. citizens over the age of 18) have been invited to answer three questions every week:

          What is the percent chance that you will vote in the Presidential election?
          What is the percent chance that you will vote for Obama, Romney, someone else?
          What is the percent chance that Obama, Romney, someone else will win? [1]

      View the exact questions »

      Every day one seventh of the panel members receive an email inviting them to answer the three questions above within a week. So one seventh of the panel members always get an email on Monday, one seventh always on Tuesday, etc. In total about 3,500 panel members participate, so every day about 500 panel members get an email inviting them to “vote.”

  •  Obama: convention bounce, Romney: impact crater (14+ / 0-)

    Mitt Romney treats people like things. And he treats things - corporations - like people.

    by richardak on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:11:11 AM PDT

  •  At least Douthat is writing about (11+ / 0-)

    something about which he knows a great deal.  His column has been a loser wince it first appeared in the Times.

    Ultimately, the only thing that matters with respect to preserving choice is who will be nominating the next Supreme Court Justices.

    by Its the Supreme Court Stupid on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:11:47 AM PDT

  •  Wow, Douthat (11+ / 0-)

    puts the exclamation point on out of touch Republicans.  First -- had Obama given one of his soaring speeches the GOP would have had a field day criticizing him.  Not to mention, we weren't looking for soaring -- we were looking for confirmation that he lives in the real world and recognizes real problems while providing a path forward.

    By the time Obama was finished, Romney’s tissue-thin acceptance speech looked almost rigorous by comparison.
    I think he confused the speech for this event with one for the State of the Union.  Also, too, he seems to have missed that whole citizenship thing.

    Nice try, Ross, but it is still clear you hate Romney.

    " My faith in the Constitution is whole; it is complete; it is total." Barbara Jordan, 1974

    by gchaucer2 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:26:49 AM PDT

    •  Reclaiming citizenship as a function of (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare, Curt Matlock, CuriousBoston

      the American people, rather than an excuse to segregate and exclude is valuable in itself.
      Let me be tedious and remind that citizenship is a bundle of obligations, not a privileged status:

      to vote
      to hold office
      to serve on juries
      to propose laws
      to provide support
      to enforce the law

      Of course, the word "obligation" is anathema to a conservative ear.  The prefer the word "responsibility" because they've managed to redefine that as "able to respond" or "responsive" -- to answer a call, or not, as opposed to taking the initiative of actually governing.
      The culture of obedience suits them.

      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:59:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good Morning (20+ / 0-)

    I went to OFA Concord last night.
    I see a difference in the data I'm entering.
    There are more Obama supporters when someone actually makes contact with a voter.

    Yesterday was a big day for Voter Registration also.


  •  The key of victory will be GOTV (12+ / 0-)

    "Rick Perry talks a lot and he's not very bright. And that's a combination I like in Republicans." --- James Carville

    by LaurenMonica on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:38:44 AM PDT

  •  militarized Keynsian (20+ / 0-)

    as Krugman points out in his blog Romney is advertising again against military cuts.

    So apparently we have money for bombs but not for teachers; for drones but not for nursing homes; enough to put more troops in Humvee, but not enough to pay vet benefits after.

    Romney's run for president is merely for better reach into the candy jar, because it is easier to loot the treasury from inside.

    fact does not require fiction for balance (proudly a DFH)

    by mollyd on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:40:36 AM PDT

  •  My big surprise. Douthat is PAID to write? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    live1, RudiB, Gooserock, Texdude50


    What we call god is merely a living creature with superior technology & understanding. If their fragile egos demand prayer, they lose that superiority.

    by agnostic on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:44:55 AM PDT

  •  i think the dynamics of the election have changed (10+ / 0-)

    since the convention. no longer are we defending Obama's record we are attacking the record of the GOP.

    just reading some of the comments about the Duothat piece and on other news sites things have changed. In a few short days we went from conversations about how much ryan lied to how much the GOP is to blame for this mess. a monumental shift.

    That is message and a feeling that should help Obama and down ticket Democrats.

    what a convention. a convention for the ages.

    "It's never too late to be who you might have been." -George Eliot

    by live1 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:48:33 AM PDT

  •  I really enjoyed the DNC this year (6+ / 0-)

    Of course, nothing can beat the energy and enthusiasm of 2008, but I thought the messaging was much better, more articulation of our goals in the future, a better defense of the Democratic populism so scorned by the right.
    Poor Ross Douthat:

    As the president promised, so is he likely to deliver

    “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

    by skohayes on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:48:52 AM PDT

    •  remember this, though... (12+ / 0-)
      4 years ago this week, Lehman Brothers collapsed, kicking off the Great Recession #uppers
      @wyethwire via web
      Why did Obama's 2008 convention speech sound so optimistic? Because it was delivered BEFORE the economic crisis #uppers
      @wyethwire via web

      "Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies." - Groucho Marx

      by Greg Dworkin on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:58:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a good point (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Desert Rose, jofr

        We hadn't even begun to realize what trouble we were in.
        Which is why I got so aggravated at the "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago" theme of the Republicans.
        The answer for everyone, except maybe Lehman Bros. and Bear Stearns, should be a resounding "HELL YES!".

        “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

        by skohayes on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:25:54 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  The Lehman collapse was poorly (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        skohayes, CuriousBoston

        timed.  Either it should have come earlier or later.

        Earlier would have given McCain more time to ride to the rescue and make the argument that horses should not be changed in mid-stream. Later would have left little time for Obama to adjust to the new realities.  Also, the banksters might not have been able to do their mendacious follow-up.
        I still think the whole thing was an engineered inside job, but the cops showed up too quick. The new sheriff was not caught sleeping at the wheel.

        Let us not forget that Cousin George Herbert Walker IV was in charge of Lehman, having recently arrived from Goldman Sachs, and he and his buds walked away with the salvageable assets to set up a private equity operation for themselves. I though at the time it was strange to let a family enterprise collapse.  But then, of course, it didn't.  The family made out OK.

        Cousin George is one of the Clusterstock 50

        He's hiding out at Neuberger Berman, a less pretentious name than Goldman Sachs.

        We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

        by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:18:31 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Remember though, (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:

          McCain did try to "ride to the rescue", and failed miserably while making Obama look good.

          Then he sprang the trap that the Democrats had set: "Yesterday, Senator McCain and I issued a joint statement, saying in one voice that this is no time to be playing politics. And on the way here, we were on the brink of a deal. Now, there are those who think we should start from scratch. ... If we are indeed starting over, the consequences could well be severe."

          But, of course, there was no deal yet. [Rep. Spencer] Bachus [R., Ala.] had been maneuvered into giving credibility to the appearance of one. But he, [House Minority Leader John] Boehner and [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell had since issued statements disclaiming the idea that there ever had been a deal. Now Obama and the Democrats were skillfully setting up the story line that McCain's intervention had polarized the situation and that Republicans were walking away from an agreement. It was brilliant political theater that was about to degenerate into farce. Skipping protocol, the president turned to McCain to offer him a chance to respond: "I think it's fair that I give you the chance to speak next."

          But McCain demurred. "I'll wait my turn," he said. It was an incredible moment, in every sense. This was supposed to be McCain's meeting—he'd called it, not the president, who had simply accommodated the Republican candidate's wishes. Now it looked as if McCain had no plan at all—his idea had been to suspend his campaign and summon us all to this meeting. It was not a strategy, it was a political gambit, and the Democrats had matched it with one of their own.

          “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

          by skohayes on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:06:56 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  The "floor under the crash" (14+ / 0-)
    But it’s also because a lot of the short-term assistance that came to states during that time wasn’t really visible to the public; it was used to maintain existing commitments to social programs and capital projects, the kinds of things that would have been noticed only had they suddenly disappeared — which could well have happened without federal intervention.
    As Canis Maximus stated in his opus Wednesday evening, POTUS put "a floor under the crash." And it is the single most under-appreciated aspect of the response to the economic collapse: it stopped at a point certain. Like the emergency brakes in an elevator. If they have to be deployed, you get out complaining that you were jolted, jostled, spilled your coffee on your shirt/blouse, etc.

    But you get to walk away.

    Y2K was also under appreciated because nothing seemed to happen. Which was the point.

    When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative. --Martin Luther King Jr.

    by Egalitare on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:51:58 AM PDT

    •  Even my little town in western KS (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      prodigal, rhauenstein, tb mare

      got stimulus money to upgrade our "downtown" (two blocks on Main St).
      We have a cellulosic bio-diesel plant being built outside town that received millions in government guaranteed loans, and grants.
      Now a milk processing plant just broke ground on the south side of town.
      And our congressional representative is the Teabaggiest Tea Partier you ever saw- he voted against Paul Ryan's budget because "it didn't go far enough".
      But people still vote Republican out here, go figure.

      “We are not a nation that says ‘don’t ask, don’t tell.’ We are a nation that says ‘out of many, we are one.’” -Barack Obama

      by skohayes on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:32:15 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yes, success is terminal. Failure goes on and on. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      tb mare, Egalitare

      Conservatives are into longevity.  That's why they plan to fail. Failure by design.  It's planned obsolescence applied to finance.

      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:21:22 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Ross (0+ / 0-)

    writes about losing? That is one of those things that could be reported when it changes...

    Oh, wait, my bad. I misunderstood. I thought it was "writes as a loser"...

    "I dreamed I saw Joe Hill last night..."

    by Killer on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:54:10 AM PDT

  •  Mitten's in a box (5+ / 0-)

    (or mittens in a box, given all of his iterations) on a lot of issues. One of them is which loopholes to close to pay for his tax cuts for the wealthy. Since Obama specifically mentioned the home mortgage deduction in his acceptance speech, Romney will have to directly address it at the debates if no where else. If he leaves open the possibility of ending the mortgage deduction the attack ads will write themselves. If he says he will keep them, then Obama can simply ask about the next popular deduction on the list. The debates are going to be epic.

    •  He is in a box. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      schnecke21, CuriousBoston

      Of his own making.  

      There's cash galore for Romney to run for president but no rationale for his election.  

      "I know how this economy works!" Romney tells audiences.  There's no evidence that he knows how it works better than the people who are currently unemployed.  A strong case could be made that they know how the economy works a lot better than he does and that the system is stacked against their chances.  

      They don't have a damn job and they want a damn job.  I was happy to hear Elizabeth Warren call Romney to task on whether corporations are people.  "No, they aren't, Governor."

  •  Besides the polling data (11+ / 0-)

    we have desperation data confirming that Romney/Ryan is flailing in free fall:

    SAN RAMON, Calif. - Paul Ryan said today the president has gone to "great lengths" to make gas more expensive in this country.

    The choice of our lifetime: Mitt Romney, It Takes A Pillage or President Barack Obama, Forward Together.

    by FiredUpInCA on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:57:47 AM PDT

  •  Thanks Ras (7+ / 0-)

    for this sentence:

    Interest in a campaign is typically considered a good indicator of turnout.
    About that enthusiasm: I live in the most populated area of a red state - according to Wiki 25% margin for John McCain in 2008. I have seen 1 (one) Romney bumper sticker and cannot even begin to count the Obama, Obama/Biden or Blue Girl/Red State stickers. Not only that, this is LDS country. They are just not that into him.
  •  This is just proof... (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, live1

    ....that the large media corporations are trying to make and shape the news rather than just reporting it.  But like this is any surprise.

    We Glory in war, in the shedding of human blood. What fools we are.

    by delver rootnose on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:59:00 AM PDT

    •  The meaning of value on Wall Street (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Dave460, delver rootnose

      according to Business Insider:

      Top priority on Wall Street is adding quantifiable value to your employer.
      The most important contribution financiers bring to their firm is revenue. But value is also added by good management and presenting a positive image to the public.
      So in judging Wall Street's Most Valuable Players, we looked at the people on Wall Street who bring the most total value to their firm in those three areas: revenue, good management, and positive press coverage.
      Read more:

      I should add that, since the '70s, business management schools have defined 'management' in terms of human resources and how people are motivated (moved) to perform as they are told.  In other words, the emphasis of management hasn't been the allocation of natural resources and man-made assets, but on propaganda that moves people to perform lord only knows what. Given their virtual agenda, the collapse of the real economy was inevitable.
      Actually, I haven't yet fixed on the right word:


      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:32:34 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  So Rupert Murdoch's Rags deny a bounce (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    In corporate america messengers are shot every day and dropped feet first into tree mulchers as a warning don't bring bad news. That's why there are whistleblower laws.

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:02:53 AM PDT

  •  GOTV (10+ / 0-)

    We'll be out there this afternoon in our local GOTV.  Please do what you can.  We turned Virginia blue four years ago and plan to do so again.

  •  'In a storm, all reeds bend the same way, even the (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, 88kathy, Greg Dworkin, tb mare

    thin ones.'......DemFromCT channels his inner BiPM....LOL

  •  Aren't the numbers for Obama (0+ / 0-)

    and Romney in the first graph reversed?

    "I regret that my poor choice of words caused some people to understand what I was saying." -- Any Republican on any given day

    by RudiB on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:14:39 AM PDT

  •  Must be frustrating for the Village (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    singe, skohayes, tb mare

    When reality fails to respect their predictions.

    I can’t decide who’s cuter – the dead guy with the arrows in his chest, or the guy in the ditch with the seeping wound. -- Game of Thrones (Heard on Set)

    by prodigal on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:14:58 AM PDT

  •  The media's willingness to (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    88kathy, tb mare, EcosseNJ

    crush Obama's bounce filtered down to local CBS News last night (NYC, Channel 2, WCBS) where they reported that the jobs numbers were "dismal" and would erase Obama's bounce. They then went on to explain that the only reason that unemployment went to 8.1% was because the workforce contracted.

    Your! Liberal! Media!

    The Republican Party is now the sworn enemy of the United States of America.

    Listen to All Over The Place - we play all kinds of music!

    by TheGreatLeapForward on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:20:19 AM PDT

  •  BatboyRyan cloistered away preping for his debate? (7+ / 0-)

    Wait a minute this brilliant, muscular, running, climbing, youthful, religious, Randian (but only her good stuff), fierce, aggressive, loving guy is gonna hide out in...Oregon?? to prepare for a debate with the doddering, foolish, inarticulate Biden???

    Could it be that Paul of the Thousand Cuts is more a weight on Romney's sinking ship than a buoy...could it be that his plan to destroy medicare, social security, medicaid and contraception is not what the voters value? could it be selecting him was a bit of idiotic pandering to the worst elements of the far right that will eventually make the selection of sarah palin seem measured?

    I think so.  

    •  Paul Ryan...The Cream of the GOP....from him, it's (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      ratcityreprobate, skohayes

      ALL downhill.

    •  Ryan's brother Tobin, who's been (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      promoting little brother's career, got his start at Bain & Co, just like Willard and now has his own hedge fund.  So, it was a family matter.

      The problem with Obama and Biden and Dodd and Kerry and the Clintons, for that matter, is that they're not "connected" to the old money.  The money that flowed to the Clintons via the Lord of Little Rock was a matter of the money men hedging their bets.  Ditto for their support of Obama -- support he actually repaid by making 'nice' with Wall Street by taking their protestations of penury at face value. The downside was that they had to open their books and that Dodd/Frank got passed with more look-see provisions than they like.

      See, the money is worthless.  What's valuable on Wall Street is connections, loyalty and secrecy. Their token of fealty is the handshake.
      So, when Barack Obama demonstrates that he's connected with people who fist bump, that's a signal that he's not only wise to the hand-shake, but that he doesn't necessarily trust it. People who's word is their bond don't have to shake on it.

      We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

      by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:48:14 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  What is with Politico? (5+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skohayes, Gooserock, tb mare, Remediator, askew

    I don't pay them much heed, but thought they were fairly down the middle.

    But this: "Obama’s lackluster prime-time performance" is absurd. His acceptance speech was rock-solid, by any measure.

    I saw the founder on Maher the other night and he sure does seem to be a mealy-mouthed conservative. Did not get a good impression of him at all.

    Anyone got some insight to share?

  •  My take-- (0+ / 0-)

    And for historical context:

    This is what victory sounded like in 1992

    We organize governments to provide benefits and prevent abuse.

    by hannah on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:45:49 AM PDT

  •  ratsmunchin has Obama up 4 this morning.n/t (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    skillet, EcosseNJ, Remediator
  •  I actually thought Douthat's column (0+ / 0-)

    was pretty good.

    I'm to the left of Obama, and much less authoritarian than he is, so yes I'm one of those annoying people who hoped he wouldn't govern like a moderate republican. But Douthat has a good overall point (despite being an ass 99% of the time) - this is largely a defensive campaign. Obama is promising nothing in the way of transformative, progressive change. It's a general defense of the status quo - "here's what we need to do in order to get us back to the 1990s," basically.

    And to be honest, a lot of people would like that. It was a fraudulent, unsustainable economy in the 1990s, built on bubbles, but shit - people had jobs, and income was rising. Who wouldn't want to return to that?

    Besides, what the hell can he get done? The guy offers a deficit/debt reduction plan regarded as too far to the right for most average Republican voters, and STILL the Tea Party (should we even call it the Republican Party anymore?) says no. He goes beyond compromise. "You want this? Okay, here's 90% of it, I just want this 10%" and gets nothing. So we're in for four years of more bullshit if he gets elected, and since his "compromise" means corporate power/the right gets its what it wants, things will get worse with a second Obama term.

    But this country needs a radical restructuring of its basic institutions - from government to banking to education to resource extraction and ecology - we're hearing nothing from either party about the truly dire state of the country and the world.

    Of course, a Romney/Ryan presidency will just be apocalyptic. That's what the Obama campaign has - "the other guy will take us so far down into hell so fast you
    won't believe it. Vote for me and I'll walk us there slowly."

    I hope most people choose the slow walk. But what a choice...

    Never be deceived that the rich will permit you to vote away their wealth. - Lucy Parsons

    by cruz on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:12:51 AM PDT

  •  Cory Booker on This Week concern trolling (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    again...saying we shouldn't worry about Mitt's omission of the war in his speech.

    And Cokie Roberts busy saying we are talking to much about abortion...

    Wow is she the definition of concern troll....put her picture on urban dictionary....

    “Mitt Romney is the only person in America who looked at the way this Congress is behaving and said, ‘I want the brains behind THAT operation.’ ” Former Democratic Congressman - Tom Perriello "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - MHP

    by justmy2 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:41:14 AM PDT

    •  Cokie doesn't seem to prepare for (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      the reports she files or the appearances she makes on round tables, etc.  

      She catches the headlines on the radio on the way in and adds a snippet or two of conventional wisdom cliches, and presto, she's a news analyst.  

  •  At one point in the GOP primaries Romney (0+ / 0-)

    trailed Herman Cain, a former pizza executive with no discernible qualifications for high office.  Cain met all Constitutional criteria to be president but had no greater presidential acumen than Brian, Alexis, Joel, Mary Beth, and Robin -- kids who worked the kitchen in a given Godfather's restaurant on any weekend of the year.

    Cain had every right to run for president but there was no greater rationale to elect him than Mary Beth or Joel.  

    There's some chance at least that Mary Beth and Joel know where Libya is.  

    And for a time, he led Mitt Romney in the GOP primary polls.  He might have continued to be a contender if he had not been exposed as a brainless adulterer.  

    Romney had approval difficulties in the primaries and he still has them now with the general electorate.  

    And the blue delegates in Charlotte last week responded to their candidate way different than the red delegates responded to Romney in Tampa the week before.  

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