I love My President and I am super enthusiastic about supporting him this year ! However, we cannot, we must not overlook the importance of down ticket races. I cannot emphasize too strongly how important these down ticket races are.
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I am a Democrat - I love my Party ! I cannot abide these personhood anti choice amendments in state houses, these attempts to suppress the vote in state houses, these constant votes to repeal ACA in the US House, these middle class killing budgets by republican state houses.
Quick overview: My take: We have a 50% chance to retake the US House, 66% chance to retain the US Senate. I am less optimistic about the state legislatures and governorships. It is up to us. Among undecided voters in Massachusetts, the President is supported 3 or 4 to 1. Elizabeth Warren, therefore, in my view, is a heavy favorite in Massachusetts. I predict a long, competitive, but good night for us as a party Nov 6.
Published it earlier - but caught a couple of significant mistakes on my part.
26 are controlled by Republicans
15 are controlled by Democrats
8 are split
1, Nebraska, is officially non partisan .
Fertile soil: Colorado , Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. By fertile soil, I mean states where we should, over time, eventually, be able to control the state legislatures given our voter registration advantages or the political leanings and views of the constituents.
29 governors are Republican, 20 are Democratic, and 1 is Independent.
Fertile Soil: Arizona (Brewer is in trouble), Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
John Boehner is suggesting that Democrats have a one in three chance of taking back the House of Representatives in 2012.Joan McCarter is a very encouraging article wrote
"I would say that there is a two in three chance that we win control of the House again. But there's a one in three chance that we could lose. And I'm being myself, frank, we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do," Boehner told Fox News' Bill Hemmer in an interview that will air on Tuesday.
And that bodes very well for our priority races. So we think we can get into the 30s. I want 35. I'm willing to say we'll win 35 to net more than 25. But we feel very good.
But the—we have to have 25. You want to know how we're going to get them? Or is that more than you want to know? Because I don't know how interested in politics you all are. I wish that our chairman were here, Steve Israel. He does a magnificent job with this. I can tell you two ways, globally and then discreet. There are 63 seats which were held by Republicans that were won by President Obama. Of those 63 seats, 18 were also won by John Kerry. There are those who say, who count that as a team—we don't. We say, give them 6, we'll take 12 of the seats that were carried by Barack Obama and John Kerry in a presidential year. Of the 45 remaining, give them 30, give them two-thirds. I think that's generous, but this is the worst-case scenario. Give them 30, we'll take 15. Fifteen plus 12, 27.
US Senate We have 51 Democratic Senators, they have 47 Republican Senators. The 2 independents caucus with us. So, we start with 53.
Maine - Angus King will cruise to victory. He will caucus with us. This adds 1 to us. (54)
Massachusetts - Brown, in a PPP survey using a screen of likely voters, is up on Warren. PPP believes that the Independents in Massachusetts, who make up 48% of the registered voters there, are as likely to be conservative as liberal. Brown is winning by 26% among these independents. Brown holds Republicans - 91% to 7 %. Unfortunately, only 73% of Massachusetts Democrats support Warren - 20 % of these Democrats support Brown who votes with McConnell 80% of the time.
Clearly, there are some real issues here. First, the state is not equally divided between those who are more liberal and those who are more conservative. Lesson two is Oklahoma and Kansas are not going for President Obama. Lesson three is Hawaii is not going for Rmoney. But people who believe that probably do not know how to tie their own shoes. There are decidedly more people who hold beliefs aligned with the Democratic Party than those who hold beliefs aligned with the Republican Party. Those whose beliefs are aligned more with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (and/or are actually registered Democrats) and support Brown are buffoons. Those people who support President Obama and Brown are mighty confused and fools. That is absurd.
Having said that, 800,000 more people will vote in the Presidential election in Massachusetts than voted in the Special election which Brown won. Among undecided voters (voters undecided between Brown and Warren), President Obama is favored between 3 to 1 and 4 to 1. We win this one due to the President's coattails - no thanks to the mighty group of fools, whose political views are closer to those found in Democrats, who support Brown despite (1) the fact that he votes with McConnell 80% of the time and (2) their professed support for President Obama who clearly supports Warren . We are all dumber for learning of the intellectual challenges of the Democratic/ Obama/ Brown voters. Still, we add one in a close race. (55)
Missouri - This very red state nominated the infamous Todd Akin. He may yet withdraw (by the 25 of this month) and be replaced. However, doing so might not improve their chances at this late date. They would alienate the Akin supporters and would not have the infrastructure of the name recognition to win. So, Claire probably retains her seat - a blessing by the political gods - thank you mr extremist. No change.(55)
Nebraska - Ben Nelson retires. But the seat goes red. We lose 1. (54)
Montana - Close but Rehberg is ahead. We lose 1. (53)
Nevada - Heller is slightly ahead of Berkley - President Obama's coattails may help us eke this one out. We get this one. They won't win every close race in states the President will carry during a Presidential year. We add 1. (54)
North Dakota - This is tight but Heidi is running well. It could go either way. Despite President Obama trailing by 19 in ND to Rmoney, polling on July 27 had Heidi up 6. She has won a state wide race here previously. We did hold this seat before Kent retired. We lose 1. (53)
Virginia - Kaine vs Allen. This is a tight race. In the end, we probably pull this out - Allen supports personhood amendment, McDonnell is unpopular (Gov ultrasound), and POTUS will win virginia. No change. (53)
Wisconsin - Kohl is not seeking reelection. More buffoonery. President Obama will win Wisconsin. Yet, enough of his supporters will support radical Thompson to give Thompson the seat. Well, these are the same brilliant people who voted in Walker, opposed him but voted for him in the recall. Thompson defeats Baldwin, we lose 1. (52)
Indiana Lugar loses primary. Doesn't matter. They retain the seat. No change.(52)
CT- Lieberman is retiring. However, McMahon has been polling well, but the consensus of polls has him up. Nevertheless, Murphy probably defeats her. No change. (52)
Final result - 52 for the good guys, 48 for the goopers. Tough election cycle in the US Senate for us. We can lose 1 of the above races ascribed to us and still have a 51-49 lead in the US Senate. If we lose more than one, it is tied, VP Biden breaks the tie, but we don't want to be in that situation. CT, MA, MO, VA, and NV are the close ones I give us. MT, ND, and WI, I assign to them. They have to win 5 of the 8 races to make the US Senate tied 50-50. They have to win 6 of these races to take back the US Senate. In five of these states, the President is highly likely to win. I am, ultimately, fairly confident that we will win CT, MA, and MO. And we have a decent shot in the three that I assign to them. I am only giving us 2 of the five that are in doubt, from my perspective.
Obviously, one can make a reasonable argument against the positions taken - and the most vulnerable of my picks to reasonable argument is in NV , especially with the "ethics" charges. Still, demographics and a solid Obama win, make this a reasonable race to pick for us. Again, in CT, most of the polls have Murphy up. President Obama will win this state by double digits. McMahon cannot get to 50. Missouri - enough voters are turned off by Akin's "legitimate rape" comments that he is unlikely to be able to win this race. A replacement candidate would not give republicans a win there. It is too late. Virginia is a close race and could go either way. However, the state continues to trend blue, Kaine was a popular governor there. President Obama will be campaigning there. They both know the path to victory there. And President Obama is likely to win Virginia - ultimately by as much as 5 points. In MA, in a presidential election year, with a Democratic President who is popular there, buttressed by her speaking role at the Convention prior to President Clinton, there will be too many voters for Brown to win. Too many of the undecided voters who support President Obama there will support the Democratic Senate candidate in the race.
Please ignore the wrong link in the comment below - I wish that was the correct link and we were up by 10 in the race for the US Senator from CT but - that is from 2010. We are up and will win in CT, but not by 10 and that was the wrong link. Sorry about that.