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I love My President and I am super enthusiastic about supporting him this year ! However, we cannot, we must not overlook the importance of down ticket races. I cannot emphasize too strongly how important these down ticket races are.

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I am a Democrat - I love my Party ! I cannot abide these personhood anti choice amendments in state houses, these attempts to suppress the vote in state houses, these constant votes to repeal ACA in the US House, these middle class killing budgets by republican state houses.

Quick overview: My take: We have a 50% chance to retake the US House, 66% chance to retain the US Senate. I am less optimistic about the state legislatures and governorships.  It is up to us. Among undecided voters in Massachusetts, the President is supported 3 or 4 to 1. Elizabeth Warren, therefore, in my view, is a heavy favorite in Massachusetts. I predict a long, competitive, but good night for us as a party Nov 6.

Published it earlier - but caught a couple of significant mistakes on my part.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

State legislatures

26 are controlled by Republicans
15 are controlled by Democrats
8 are split
1, Nebraska, is officially non partisan .

Fertile soil: Colorado , Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. By fertile soil, I mean states where we should, over time, eventually, be able to control the state legislatures given our voter registration advantages or the political leanings and views of the constituents.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Governorships

29 governors are Republican, 20 are Democratic, and 1 is Independent.

Fertile Soil: Arizona (Brewer is in trouble), Florida, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

US House

In April, Boehner admitted

John Boehner is suggesting that Democrats have a one in three chance of taking back the House of Representatives in 2012.

"I would say that there is a two in three chance that we win control of the House again. But there's a one in three chance that we could lose. And I'm being myself, frank, we've got a big challenge and we've got work to do," Boehner told Fox News' Bill Hemmer in an interview that will air on Tuesday.

Joan McCarter is a very encouraging article wrote

 

And that bodes very well for our priority races. So we think we can get into the 30s. I want 35. I'm willing to say we'll win 35 to net more than 25. But we feel very good.
But the—we have to have 25. You want to know how we're going to get them? Or is that more than you want to know? Because I don't know how interested in politics you all are. I wish that our chairman were here, Steve Israel. He does a magnificent job with this. I can tell you two ways, globally and then discreet. There are 63 seats which were held by Republicans that were won by President Obama. Of those 63 seats, 18 were also won by John Kerry. There are those who say, who count that as a team—we don't. We say, give them 6, we'll take 12 of the seats that were carried by Barack Obama and John Kerry in a presidential year. Of the 45 remaining, give them 30, give them two-thirds. I think that's generous, but this is the worst-case scenario. Give them 30, we'll take 15. Fifteen plus 12, 27.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

US Senate We have 51 Democratic Senators, they have 47 Republican Senators. The 2 independents caucus with us. So, we start with 53.

Maine - Angus King will cruise to victory. He will caucus with us. This adds 1 to us. (54)

Massachusetts - Brown, in a PPP survey using a screen of likely voters, is up on Warren. PPP believes that the Independents in Massachusetts, who make up 48% of the registered voters there, are as likely to be conservative as liberal. Brown is winning by 26% among these independents. Brown holds Republicans - 91% to 7 %. Unfortunately, only 73% of Massachusetts Democrats support Warren - 20 % of these Democrats support Brown who votes with McConnell 80% of the time.

Clearly, there are some real issues here. First, the state is not equally divided between those who are more liberal and those who are more conservative. Lesson two is Oklahoma and Kansas are not going for President Obama. Lesson three is Hawaii is not going for Rmoney. But people who believe that probably do not know how  to tie their own shoes. There are decidedly more people who hold beliefs aligned with the Democratic Party than those who hold beliefs aligned with the Republican Party. Those whose beliefs are aligned more with the Democratic Party than the Republican Party (and/or are actually registered Democrats) and support Brown are buffoons. Those people who support President Obama and Brown are mighty confused and fools. That is absurd.

Having said that, 800,000 more people will vote in the Presidential election in Massachusetts than voted in the Special election which Brown won. Among undecided voters (voters undecided between Brown and Warren), President Obama is favored between 3 to 1 and 4 to 1. We win this one due to the President's coattails - no thanks to the mighty group of fools, whose political views are closer to those found in Democrats,  who support Brown despite (1) the fact that he votes with McConnell 80% of the time and (2) their professed support for President Obama who clearly supports Warren . We are all dumber for learning of the intellectual challenges of the Democratic/ Obama/ Brown voters. Still, we add one in a close race. (55)

Missouri - This very red state nominated the infamous Todd Akin. He may yet withdraw (by the 25 of this month) and be replaced. However, doing so might not improve their chances at this late date. They would alienate the Akin supporters and would not have the infrastructure of the name recognition to win. So, Claire probably retains her seat - a blessing by the political gods - thank you mr extremist. No change.(55)

Nebraska - Ben Nelson retires. But the seat goes red. We lose 1. (54)

Montana - Close but Rehberg is ahead. We lose 1. (53)

Nevada - Heller is slightly ahead of Berkley - President Obama's coattails may help us eke this one out. We get this one. They won't win every close race in states the President will carry during a Presidential year. We add 1.  (54)

North Dakota - This is tight but Heidi is running well. It could go either way. Despite President Obama trailing by 19 in ND to Rmoney, polling on July 27 had Heidi up 6. She has won a state wide race here previously. We did hold this seat before Kent retired. We lose 1. (53)

Virginia - Kaine vs Allen. This is a tight race. In the end, we probably pull this out - Allen supports personhood amendment, McDonnell is unpopular (Gov ultrasound), and POTUS will win virginia. No change. (53)

Wisconsin - Kohl is not seeking reelection.  More buffoonery. President Obama will win Wisconsin. Yet, enough of his supporters will support radical Thompson to give Thompson the seat. Well, these are the same brilliant people who voted in Walker, opposed him but voted for him in the recall. Thompson defeats Baldwin, we lose 1. (52)

Indiana Lugar loses primary. Doesn't matter. They retain the seat. No change.(52)

CT- Lieberman is retiring. However, McMahon has been polling well, but the consensus of polls has him up. Nevertheless, Murphy probably defeats her. No change.  (52)

Final result - 52 for the good guys, 48 for the goopers. Tough election cycle in the US Senate for us. We can lose 1 of the above races ascribed to us  and still have a 51-49 lead in the US Senate. If we lose more than one, it is tied, VP Biden breaks the tie, but we don't want to be in that situation.  CT, MA, MO, VA, and NV are the close ones I give us. MT, ND, and WI, I assign to them. They have to win 5 of the 8 races to make the US Senate tied 50-50. They have to win 6 of these races to take back the US Senate. In five of these states, the President is highly likely to win. I am, ultimately, fairly confident that we will win CT, MA, and MO. And we have a decent shot in the three that I assign to them. I am only giving us 2 of the five that are in doubt, from my perspective.

Obviously, one can make a reasonable argument against the positions taken - and the most vulnerable of my picks to reasonable argument is in NV , especially with the "ethics" charges. Still, demographics and a solid Obama win, make this a reasonable race to pick for us. Again, in CT, most of the polls have Murphy up. President Obama will win this state by double digits. McMahon cannot get to 50. Missouri - enough voters are turned off by Akin's "legitimate rape" comments that he is unlikely to be able to win this race. A replacement candidate would not give republicans a win there. It is too late. Virginia is a close race and could go either way. However, the state continues to trend blue, Kaine was a popular governor there. President Obama will be campaigning there. They both know the path to victory there. And President Obama is likely to win Virginia - ultimately by as much as 5 points. In MA, in a presidential election year, with a Democratic President who is popular there, buttressed by her speaking role at the Convention prior to President Clinton, there will be too many voters for Brown to win.  Too many of the undecided voters who support President Obama there will support the Democratic Senate candidate in the race.

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Please ignore the wrong link in the comment below - I wish that was the correct link and we were up by 10 in the race for the US Senator from CT but - that is from 2010. We are up and will win in CT, but not by 10 and that was the wrong link. Sorry about that.

Originally posted to Vote4Obamain2012 on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 06:14 PM PDT.

Also republished by Herding 438.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Obama Ticket Splitters Should Be Targeted (7+ / 0-)

    with the message that if you have enjoyed the obstruction and the stalemate of the last 2 years, go ahead and vote for Obama and Scott Brown. Go ahead and vote for Obama and McMahon. If you want to actually see the destructive stalemate of the last 2 years end, give Obama a Congress that will work with him.

  •  Don't forget Connecticut Senate (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Leo Flinnwood, Lujane

    The polling out of that race has been disturbing.

    And I'm very doubtful about us retaining MO. OTOH, I think we could very well keep ND.

    But overall, a clear and succinct summary of the Senate picture.

    "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

    by Demi Moaned on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 10:40:31 AM PDT

  •  Not enough push for Congress at the Convention (3+ / 0-)

    I'm at a loss to understand why there wasn't a bigger push for Congressional majorities at the Convention. I think President Obama is going to win, but there's little reason to hope the Repugs will be less obstuctionist if they retain their  House majority, much less if they control the Senate too. Obama + GOP Congress = slow recovery, at best, and possibly double dip recession. Weak economy = more Repug gains in 2014 and uncontested control of the government in 2016. What a nightmare!
      Every Democratic speaker at the Convention should have mentioned the need for a Democratic Congress, and I can't think of a plausible reason why they didn't. It's too late for that now, but Obama and Biden should be plugging local candidates relentlessly. It would even justify leaving the swing states on occasion to campaign in close Senate races.

    "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free, it expects what never was and never will be." - Thomas Jefferson

    by Blue Boomer on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 10:41:36 AM PDT

    •  we had many more Congresional speakers than (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Leo Flinnwood

      they did.

    •  Yes, I felt that omission, too (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Leo Flinnwood, RandomNonviolence

      The convention was too narrowly focused on the Presidential race. I was with Charles Pierce who urged Obama to emulate Harry Truman:

      I am not a Truman idolator, but, dammit, the man knew how to defend his own presidency, and he knew how to call out its enemies by their names, and he knew how to attach the needs of the country to its success. For two days now, Barack Obama has had people of eloquence defending his presidency for him. His wife has done it for him. The mother of a desperately sick child has done it for him. A law professor with big glasses and a voice like a country schoolteacher has done it for him. And Bill Clinton did it for him, and defended his own embattled presidency while he was at it, from the people who chased his dick all over Washington and who are now pretending he was the best Democratic friend they ever had. (I can't imagine how long he's wanted to get in that shot at the oily Mitch McConnell.) Very likely, Joe Biden will do it very well for him tonight. But, ultimately, it's time for Barack Obama to get up and to defend his own presidency, and to call out its enemies by their names, and to attach [t]he needs of the country to its success.

      No more detachment. No more cool. No more lofty metaphors. Tell us what you did, and why you did it, and tell us who kept you from doing more, and, most important, tell us why they did. Because, frankly, you don't deserve another term if you can't. This is how you do it:

      In 1932 we were attacking the citadel of special privilege and greed. We were fighting to drive the money changers from the temple. Today, in 1948, we are now the defenders of the stronghold of democracy and of equal opportunity, the haven of the ordinary people of this land and not of the favored classes or the powerful few. The battle cry is just the same now as it was in 1932, and I paraphrase the words of Franklin D. Roosevelt as he issued the challenge, in accepting nomination in Chicago: "This is more than a political call to arms. Give me your help, not to win votes along, but to win in this new crusade to keep America secure and safe for its own people." Now my friends, with the help of God and the wholehearted push which you can put behind this campaign, we can save this country from a continuation of the 80th Congress, and from misrule from now on.

      "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

      by Demi Moaned on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 10:47:58 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  We emphasized the US Congress much more than (0+ / 0-)

        they did. President Obama's speech was very specific and detailed. It was not lofty, soaring rhetoric.  The convention occurs to nominate your Presidential and Vice Presidential nominees. And that helps your team, overall. Moreover, we did have many more Congressional speakers. Therefore, I cannot agree with this critique.

        And I am not disturbed to be winning on average by about 10 points in Connecticut.

        Our convention was outstanding. This was well planned and well executed.

        Hence, I cannot agree.

        •  "not lofty, soaring rhetoric" (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          RandomNonviolence, Stude Dude

          Well, that was a blessing at least. And I agree that the convention overall was polished and well executed.

          But I don't think it would have weakened the argument in favor of the President to tie the nihilistic actions of the Republicans in both houses of Congress to the Republican nominee.

          "The smartest man in the room is not always right." -Richard Holbrooke

          by Demi Moaned on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 11:11:08 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I think that's something that every other Dem (2+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            Vote4Obamain2012, bewareofme

            should be doing. I think Pres. Obama has done his share on this. He has to work with  those who return.
            If he whines about obstructionism, it will diminish him, politically.
            The rest of us need to do it. The real targets are the likes of Mark Halperin and Wolf Blitzer.
            They're the ones standing between the American people and the truth.
            I think it's getting thru, though.

            You can't make this stuff up.

            by David54 on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 07:50:32 PM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  Hope To God Triangulation Is Not Obama Strategy (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Demi Moaned, RandomNonviolence

        More Truman please. You have it right.

    •  Knowing That An Obama Win Is Not Enough (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vote4Obamain2012

      does take away from the excitement of the election.  People have hated the obstruction and stalemates of the last two years. It would be a convincing argument for Obama supporters who are considering voting for the GOP down ticket that they have to be out of their minds. Let them know that the slogans for the GOP for them should be "if you have loved the last 2 years, vote for Obama and a GOP Congress".

  •  You forgot Nebraska. They get 1 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 11:00:39 AM PDT

  •  We have a deep, deep bench going into 2013-2014 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012

    and on into 2016. There are a lot of good, young Democratic candidates to fill almost every gap. I'm highly confident going ahead, particularly if we're able to save our bacon this year.

    "Let's put the jam on the lower shelf so the little people can reach it." - Ralph Yarborough

    by Zutroy on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 11:01:32 AM PDT

    •  I'm worried about keeping the Senate (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vote4Obamain2012

      in 2014, which is why I want as many Dem victories as I can get in this cycle to pad out our majority.  I'm hopeful that a combination of Obama coattails (MA, NV, VA, hopefully WI) and toxic GOP candidates (IN, MO, ND) will help us stay close to our current 53-seat majority, and maybe even (fingers crossed) expand it by one or two, because the next cycle is going to bring many more potentially-vulnerable incumbents (Pryor, Franken, Hagan, Shaheen) up for re-election.

  •  Nancy is cautiously optimistic about 37 max. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012, bewareofme

    "Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity." --M. L. King "You can't fix stupid" --Ron White -6.00, -5.18

    by zenbassoon on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 11:01:42 AM PDT

  •  We have a Senate race in Michigan (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Vote4Obamain2012

    Debbie vs. Pete.  Since the days of Phil Hart and McNamera the GOP does not win Senate races in Michigan.

    Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

    by J Edward on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 06:36:54 PM PDT

    •  Well, Spencer Abraham won in 1994. (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Vote4Obamain2012

      But that was a wave election, and he was ousted after one term (albeit narrowly) by Debbie Stabenow.

      •  I had forgotten that blot on our honor. (0+ / 0-)

        Never promote men who seek after a state-established religion; it is spiritual tyranny--the worst of despotism. It is turnpiking the way to heaven by human law, in order to establish ministerial gates to collect toll. John Leland

        by J Edward on Sat Sep 08, 2012 at 11:29:57 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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