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Nate Silver's analysis today plus the Virgil Goode possibility in Virginia may make the next 58 days fun!  http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/. The analysis shows Obama up by 8.5 to 10 per cent over Romney once the tracking polls are completely past Bill Clinton's spectacular speech!

Nate Silver states that Bill Clinton's speech may have been the deciding speech and the convention may result in an 8 point bounce.  Add to that the possibility that Virgil Goode is on the Virginia ballot plus the auto bailout effect on Ohio and it means that we work hard for 58 days and then we celebrate!  http://www2.wsls.com/.... Virgil Goode could make Virgina a walk in the park.  Even without that help this race may be moving from being close to a serious win.  Please keep working like we are down 10 points in the polls.

Originally posted to jan0080 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Virgil Goode is a pretty big deal (10+ / 0-)

    I think many hard core conservatives in Virginia will prefer voting for him as a protest vote against Romney - especially if they believe that Romney will lose the election anyway!

    “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR

    by Phoebe Loosinhouse on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:15:08 AM PDT

    •  Can't see Cuccinelli letting Goode stay on ballot. (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Australian2, Quantumlogic

      "Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." -Benjamin Franklin

      by hotdamn on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:21:41 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  he can't stop it. (5+ / 0-)

        Virgil turned in 20000 signatures, and only a few percent seem questionable (he needs 10000).   Don't see how he can stop it.

      •  Perhaps but (7+ / 0-)

        I would have to think that Cuccinelli would see those very Virgil Goode conservatives as being part of his own base and does he want to be the one responsible for shutting them out? In other words, if he too starts to perceive that Mitt is a loser, does he really want to hitch his own future star to that wagon?

        One other factor is that if Mitt continues to display flop sweat and be as defensive as he is being, some Republicans will inevitably stay home out of disgust. Mitt could wreck some havoc on the down races by having absolutely no coattails. This could put Cuccinelli in a great position for running for the Senate after he does one term as Governor (in his mind). A Mitt loss wouldn't be all that bad for Cuccinelli in my mind.

        “Human kindness has never weakened the stamina or softened the fiber of a free people. A nation does not have to be cruel to be tough.” FDR

        by Phoebe Loosinhouse on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:38:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  We'll see... (4+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Limelite, Quantumlogic, otto, ladybug53
          Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II’s office declined to comment on the status of the probe, but Virginia Republicans made clear Tuesday that the issue is far from settled.

          “Even before our letter, the attorney general was conducting a criminal investigation into issues with Mr. Goode’s petitions,” said Virginia GOP chairman Pat Mullins.

          “We have simply reported to the SBE additional systemic problems that warrant review. These problems display, at best, a stunning disregard for Virginia law. Mr. Goode owes the citizens of Virginia an explanation about the irregularities in his petitions.”

          The Virginia GOP will put up a spirited fight, for sure. And Cuccinelli is a Romney surrogate.

          When it comes to voting malfeasance, the GOP is king. So, we'll see.

          http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

          "Beer is living proof that God loves us and wants us to be happy." -Benjamin Franklin

          by hotdamn on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:00:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  Conservative family dispute (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          hotdamn, JTinDC

          You make a good point that Cuccinelli is likely to see the Goode supporters as potential supporters for him, should he find himself in a race without their party in it.

          At the same time, he can't offend Republicans, either.

          I bet he'll go overboard trying to look scrupulously fair, but eventually acknowledging that there are enough legitimate signatures. (I'm assuming that Goode has indeed obtained enough.)

          Let a judge make the final call.

    •  As someone with family in he former district (4+ / 0-)

      I can clearly say without equivocation...this is the first time I have ever been happy about something Virgil Goode has done..

      “Mitt Romney is the only person in America who looked at the way this Congress is behaving and said, ‘I want the brains behind THAT operation.’ ” Former Democratic Congressman - Tom Perriello "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - MHP

      by justmy2 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:55:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  We are still 2 months out (14+ / 0-)

    From the election. Don't count anyone out. I'm expecting a lot of negativity to come from the media to the president soon.

    "I'm not mad at them (tea party) for being loud, I'm mad at us for being silent for the last two years. Where have we been"? "it was never yes HE can, it was Yes WE can". - Van Jones

    by sillycilla on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:56:10 AM PDT

    •  Exactly - ad revenue depends on keeping it close (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Lealia

      These are businesses, not public trusts.  

      They are run like businesses, despite the occasional hand-waving that they are something more.

      Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

      by Minerva on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:39:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  The food is just defrosting... (10+ / 0-)

    we are far from dinner being served, much less putting a fork in it...

    “Mitt Romney is the only person in America who looked at the way this Congress is behaving and said, ‘I want the brains behind THAT operation.’ ” Former Democratic Congressman - Tom Perriello "Small Businesses Don't Build Levees" - MHP

    by justmy2 on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 04:57:14 AM PDT

  •  Oh no no no no no. (7+ / 0-)

    The time to put a fork in it is when it is DONE which will not happen before the second Tuesday in November.

    PLEASE no more complacency-encouraging headlines.

    Still enjoying my stimulus package.

    by Kevvboy on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:08:49 AM PDT

  •  Like Carter put a fork in Reagan in 1980? (4+ / 0-)

    Hypothesis on Romney tactics: he's pulled some ad money to build a better GOTV effort, since the ads aren't working as well as expected.  

    He'll likely have enough money to hire every unemployed person in Ohio for a week or two...

    Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

    by Minerva on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:38:35 AM PDT

    •  Also recall Reagan was a flip-flopping lightweight (6+ / 0-)

      Its astonishing that some people today regard Reagan as some kind of heavyweight figure.  

      He was in 1980, and always remained, a flip-flopping lying imbecile who was barely present when the cameras were off.  

      (I was just reading last night how in 1982 at a dinner in Brasilia he toasted to "the Bolivian people"...)

      Romney's personality may cripple him, but he is clearly trying to emulate the Reagan playbook (lies about welfare, lies about trickle-down, lies about medicare, anti-Russki jingoism).

      Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

      by Minerva on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 05:53:21 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  STOP! COMPLACENCY KILLS! (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    profewalt, wdrath, ladybug53, cishart

    Sure, this week has been a celebration of how much better the the Democratic vision of the future is, how much better our policies are for American families, and how much better we are as human beings.

    This week is indeed a time to gloat, but never forget that there are millions of willfully ignorant Republicans out there, who have for years been fed a steady diet of HATRED and LIES by the Republican Ministry of FOXaganda®.

    They have been coached into a seething, virulent racist rage by Romney, Ryan and Limbaugh, and make no mistake: they will be there on election day, frothing at the mouth with eagerness to take us back to a place that never existed except in their sick, twisted little pea brains.

    This ain’t over until the would-be Queen Ann has to stand next to her lying sack-o-shit husband while he congratulates President Obama, and that treasonous fuck Boehner is crying in his triple bourbon.

  •  Hate your title; LOVE your diary. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wdrath, ladybug53

    The title implies coasting.  Very bad.

    So I was going to post a rant about how we must always run as if we are 10 points down.

    Only to discover that was the point of your diary.

    Thanks.

    "When I use a word," Humpty Dumpty (Mittens, Paul Ryan, Scotty Walker, Limbaugh, pick your favorite) said in rather a scornful tone, "it means just what I choose it to mean -- neither more nor less."

    by Eman on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 06:34:11 AM PDT

  •  No. Hell no! (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JTinDC, gforce, ladybug53

    Time to burn it to a smoldering crisp!

  •  Can't celebrate even if Obama wins (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ladybug53, gfv6800

    I believe Obama will win, but with that win, I believe the best we can hope for is that things will not change much. In other words, Republicans will continue to try to thwart him at every turn and will continue to push radical policies in the states they govern and in Congress, and they will also launch more witch hunts than ever before.

    Romney would make things worse, however, so our fight is critical. But make no mistake that our win wil mot be a major victory amd we cannot afford to celebrate. We must keep working in years that are not presidential election years -- and on the state level -- to win back our governorships, to vote in normal, nonconservative judges, to win back state legislators, to win back our school boards and control of our children's education, and to win back our voting rights. We also need to fight to restore a truth-telling mediastaffed by real journalists.

     There is so much work to do beyond getting the president re-elected, that I am afraid I am not up for the victory party.

    It's funny how conservative whack jobs rant about how they have to "take back" the country and fail to see how much of it they already own.

    We Won't Let Republicans Replace Medicare with GOP Vouchercare!

    by CatM on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:07:47 AM PDT

  •  No fork sticking yet! (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    ladybug53

    Even if Obama is up double digits the only time to stick the fork in it is Nov 6.


    Not this mind and not this heart, I won't rot • Mumford & Sons

    by jayden on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 07:28:46 AM PDT

  •  GOTMFV! n/t (0+ / 0-)

    "There must be something beyond slaughter and barbarism to support the existence of mankind and we must all help search for it."

    by camlbacker on Sun Sep 09, 2012 at 08:44:54 AM PDT

  •  No letting up (0+ / 0-)

    No matter what we read, hear or learn we must keep working hard and not slow up for even one second. Then after a celebration we have to begin the job of ridding ourselves of Rick Scott here in Florida in 2014!

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