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Leading Off:

FL-26: Uh, wtf?

A key witness in the federal investigation against U.S. Rep. David Rivera failed to show up for an interview with prosecutors and FBI agents, and her family says they are worried of her whereabouts.

Ana Alliegro, a campaign manager for former Democratic congressional candidate Justin Lamar Sternad, is at the center of the federal probe of Sternad and Rivera. FBI agents are investigating whether the Republican congressman used Alliegro to secretly fund Sternad's primary race against Rivera's longtime rival, Joe Garcia. Garcia easily won the Aug. 14 primary.

Alliegro never showed up to give a statement to investigators. She had been scheduled to testify Thursday before a federal grand jury in Fort Lauderdale, but her lawyer Mauricio Padilla worked out a deal to speak directly to investigators.

But if you read on, you'll find that Alliegro's mother, who claims she is "very worried," hasn't bothered to file a missing persons report. (And if this is your first introduction to this latest Rivera caper, click through for a thorough backgrounder to the entire story at the Miami Herald.)

Race Ratings:

For this week's batch of ratings adjustments, we're changing one gubernatorial race and 10 House contests. Five moves are in favor of the GOP and six in favor of Democrats.

ND-Gov (Likely R to Safe R): North Dakota Democrats did very well recruiting for statewide races this cycle, but state Sen. Ryan Taylor didn't wind up quite as lucky as his counterparts running for House and Senate. Those races turned out to be open seats, but GOP Gov. Jack Dalrymple decided to run for another term. Dalrymple was never elected governor in the first place; he assumed office in 2010 when then-Gov. John Hoeven was elected to the Senate. Still, though, he's the incumbent in a red state, Taylor appears to be short on cash, and there's no sign the DGA has any interest in getting involved, so we're not seeing any path to victory.

CA-39 (Likely R to Safe R): Democrat Jay Chen, a member of a local school board, a Navy veteran, and a small businessman, offers an intriguing profile for the redrawn 39th District, especially since about a quarter of the voting population is Asian. And a very early internal hinted at some promise. But this is still the tenth-reddest seat in California, and GOP Rep. Ed Royce is a pretty powerful figure in his own party and a strong fundraiser. National Democrats have shown little interest in this race, but a respectable performance by Chen should set him up well for future opportunities.

CA-45 (Likely R to Safe R): Similarly to the above, Irvine mayor Sukhee Kang also looked like an interesting prospect for Democrats. Irvine's a pretty populous city (over 200K), and Kang would be only the second Korean-American ever elected to Congress. However, CA-45 is even redder than the 39th, and the 45th is only about 15% Asian by voting population. If demographic trends go our way, this district may prove fruitful some day. But this cycle, the DCCC and other outside groups aren't getting involved here, and GOP Rep. John Campbell looks safe. (Note that a rating of "Safe R" or "Safe D" doesn't mean we expect a blowout. It only means we don't see a path to victory.)

CO-04 (Likely R to Safe R): State Senate President Brandon Shaffer looked like an excellent recruit to take on freshman GOP Rep. Cory Gardner... until redistricting. Colorado's new court-drawn map, held by Democrat Betsy Markey just a cycle ago, turned the 4th from a swing district to a conservative seat that went to John McCain by 15 points. Shaffer released an implausible internal poll some weeks back, but just how unconcerned is Gardner? His entire website is nothing more than a splash page. Cocky, yes. But there just doesn't seem to be any path to victory for Shaffer.

CO-07 (Likely D to Lean D): While none of us believed Joe Coors' internal poll, money is another thing. He's got a lot of it, and Democrats (via the House Majority PAC) have jumped in here early and big to try to blunt it. While we still expect Dem Rep. Ed Perlmutter to return for the 113th Congress, we can't ignore the fact that it looks like we've got a live one here.

FL-09 (Lean D to Likely D): Republicans hoped that Osceola County Commissioner John Quinones might sneak through the primary, but he evidently never had much of a shot, judging by the final tally. For good measure, though, Democrats helped ratfuck the contest on behalf of oddball attorney Todd Long. While ex-Rep. Alan Grayson always makes us nervous, he has huge sums of cash and, should he ever need it, can also tap his enormous personal wealth. Long, meanwhile, has less than $4,000 in the bank and national Republicans simply aren't going to bother with a joker like that.

FL-18 (Lean R to Tossup): We started this race off as Lean R on account of Rep. Allen West's fundraising prowess and celebrity, in addition to the fact that Democrat Patrick Murphy is a young, first-time candidate. But two unanswered Democratic polls have shown the race a dead heat, and Murphy's proven to be a strong fundraiser himself. This is a very swingy district (Obama won by 3, GOP Gov. Rick Scott won by 2), with very few remaining undecided voters, and the battle lines have been drawn.

FL-26 (Lean R to Tossup): A recruiting debacle early in the cycle turned out to have a silver lining, as Democrats were able to re-recruit Joe Garcia, probably the strongest opponent for GOP Rep. David Rivera. This race has become so competitive in large part because of Rivera's longstanding, serious ethical troubles, and he's added to his rap sheet by supporting a phony candidate in the Democratic primary whose only purpose was attack Garcia. The authorities have opened criminal probes into the matter, which loom Damoclean over Rivera's head. What's more, Garcia recently released an internal poll giving him a nine-point lead over the incumbent. Even if that spread is overly rosy, it augurs toward tossup status, especially since Rivera had no response at all.

MA-04 (Likely D to Safe D): A young, first-time candidate with a family surname that brings out strong emotions on both sides moves into a newly-open district to run for Congress... well, under any other circumstances, you might be concerned that this fellow could potentially stumble. Hence, out of an abundance of caution, we put this race on our big board. But Joseph P. Kennedy III, who is looking to succeed Barney Frank, has proven to be an adept campaigner and a monster fundraiser. And at just 31, he could have as long a career in Congress as he likes.

MN-08 (Lean R to Tossup): Perhaps no rating of ours has generated more controversy than this one. We long worried about candidate quality, especially since the Democratic primary got dragged out into an expensive affair. While we probably emerged with the best nominee in the form of ex-Rep. Rick Nolan, his fundraising's been weak, despite earning establishment backing from top to bottom. What's more, while Minnesota as a whole got considerably bluer from 2004 to 2008, this district stood still, which had us concerned about Obama's appeal here. But two Democratic polls last week showed Nolan just edging GOP freshman Chip Cravaack, and Cravaack's whiny response couldn't have been weaker.

NY-04 (Likely D to Safe D): After a close-ish shave last cycle and a slightly rejiggered district that became a bit redder, we put Dem Rep. Carolyn McCarthy's seat on our list out of an abundance of caution. But her opponent, 2010 nominee Fran Becker, has raised bupkes. In a wave year for Republicans, who knows what could happen. But this is no wave year, and Becker's getting ignored.


MO-Sen: I've been a little skeptical of the idea that pullout by the national organizations will doom Todd Akin in Missouri. I mean, leave the two major cities and you're basically in Alabama; it's a red-enough state he can say all manner of crazy crap and still stay within arm's length of 50%+1. Nevertheless, if Akin can't even afford to air his own ads, he might really be DOA. And that's exactly what's happening now, as stations across the state are now cancelling his ad buys because his campaign hasn't been, you know, paying for them. For what it's worth, the Akin camp says it's all a "scheduling mistake" and adds that the proverbial check is in the mail. Don't get prematurely happy about this, though, because it could still be the last straw that changes Akin's mind and forces him to withdraw while the window is still open. (David Jarman)

NJ-Sen: It may seem counterintuitive, but I'm a little disappointed to see Democratic incumbent Bob Menendez posting double-digit leads in the polling of this year's New Jersey Senate race. I'd rather see it in the high single-digits, not enough to really start worrying, but enough to lure in the NRSC and get them bogged down once again in the New Jersey tar pit that always seems tantalizing but never pays off.

At any rate, we've got another NJ-Sen poll in the low-double-digits range, this time from Rutgers-Eagleton, who peg the race at 47 for Menendez and 35 for Republican challenger Joe Kyrillos. (Their previous poll was way back in February and gave Menendez a 44-22 lead over the then-unknown Kyrillos.) The strange post-script to this poll is that the field dates were Aug. 23-25, meaning they've been sitting on the data for a couple weeks now. That led the Kyrillos camp to put out a huffy-sounding press release on Friday calling the Rutgers poll "irrelevant." (David Jarman)

WI-Sen: Ah, gay-baiting. Wondered when Wisconsin Republicans would finally get around to that. Well, wondering time is over:

The political director for U.S. Senate campaign of former Gov. Tommy Thompson highlighted his opponent's participation in a gay pride event and criticized her ability to discuss "heartland values."

Thompson, a Republican, is running against U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, who if elected would become the nation's first openly gay senator. [...]

The email included a link to a video of Baldwin dancing in 2010 with the costumed disco band VO5 playing the "Wonder Woman" theme. Baldwin, wearing sunglasses, dances on stage with the band and at the end hugs the singer, who is dressed like the comic book hero Wonder Woman.


ME-Sen: Independent ex-Gov. Angus King's first ad touts (what else?) his independence. Weirdly, the first 15 seconds of the ad involve zooming in from outer space all the way down to King's hometown of Brunswick via Google Earth... and then he pops out from under some trees. It's like Google Maps has sprung to life!

MO-Sen: Dem Sen. Claire McCaskill can barely conceal her glee that she wound up exactly at number 50 on the National Journal's ideology ratings for the U.S. Senate.

ND-Sen: An elderly breast cancer survivor says she wouldn't be alive without Medicare and excoriates GOP Rep. Rick Berg for supporting the Ryan plan in this new Heidi Heitkamp spot. (Heitkamp herself has fought breast cancer.)

OH-Sen: Dem Sen. Sherrod Brown slams Josh Mandel for his endless series of brazen lies, citing the many reporters, columnists, and fact-checkers who have repeatedly called Mandel out.


NC-Gov: SurveyUSA is out with new numbers on behalf of the right-wing Civitas Institute, and it looks like SUSA is back to its accustomed role of providing crosstabs that absolutely no one with any credibility will ever take as plausible. The toplines show Republican Pat McCrory with a double-digit edge over Democrat Walter Dalton (55-39). Everyone has had McCrory leading, so that's not the problem (though this margin is unusually wide).

The problem with this poll is that SUSA is asking us to believe that McCrory is such a beloved figure that he is getting a third of Democratic voters, and one-third of African-American voters. Those numbers are absurd on their face, considering McCrory took all of three percent of the black vote when he first ran in 2008. (Steve Singiser)

• Ads:

WV-Gov: Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin touts his fiscal leadership of West Virginia, including the state's improving credit rating and his efforts to lower taxes.


CA-47: Our Steve Singiser so thoroughly laid waste to this poll in Thursday's Polling Wrap that I'm not sure anything more needs to be said. If you didn't see it, though, the campaign of Republican Gary DeLong in the Long Beach-based open seat is out with a poll that pushes the limits of credulity, not simply because of the toplines, which have him leading Dem Alan Lowenthal 53-44 (in a district that went 58% Obama, and where Lowenthal just released an internal poll showing him leading by 20, forcing DeLong to scramble to push back).

The real problem here is that DeLong's poll was taken way back in June 28-July 3 by Probolsky Research... and DeLong previously released a poll, also taken June 28-July 3 by Probolsky Research, that had him trailing by 3. So, either DeLong's camp took the absolutely bizarre approach of having two completely different samples in the field at the same time and then releasing the poorer results of the two—or else he went back, juiced the results somehow, re-reported them, and hoped no one would notice the dates. (David Jarman)

IL-08: You know how the ladies are, always gabbing about shoes and suchlike—at least in Joe Walsh's world...

"Ms. Duckworth has continued to show more interest in rubbing elbows with big name party insiders, then [SIC] staying home and tackling the tough issues facing voters in the district," he said in a statement on his website. "It has become abundantly clear that at this point the only debate Ms. Duckworth is actually interested in having is which outfit she'll be wearing for her big speech."
(David Jarman)

TN-04: Hmmm, this may be a first: a Republican in a competitive race choosing to lash himself to the Ryan budget. In response to Democratic opponent Eric Stewart's references to the "Paul Ryan/Scott DesJarlais plan for Medicare," in an op-ed for the Chattanoogan, DesJarlais just appropriates that, saying "I'm proud of my vote for the Ryan Budget and if they want to call it the Ryan/DesJarlais plan, that is just fine by me." It's worth noting that this is one of the reddest districts in the country to host a competitive House race (36% Obama), so he may figure there are enough die-hards in the district who aren't paying attention to the policy implications that he doesn't have much to lose by showing his true colors. (David Jarman)


IL-12: The conservative YG Action Fund is deploying two more ads, in addition to the MA-06 spot they released on Thursday. This one attacks retired Gen. Bill Enyart for having "little private sector experience"—I love it when Republicans degrade military service. They also try to call him a "Blagojevich appointee." The ad is backed by a hefty $541K buy. (And incidentally, the MA-06 buy is for a massive $900K.)

MD-06: Democrat John Delaney tries to cram a ton of points into this one 30-second spot, mostly involving pushback against attacks by GOP Rep. Roscoe Bartlett, and also dinging the incumbent's voting record on a variety of fronts.

NC-07: Here's that other YG Action Fund spot (also for a $541K run), and it's proof once again that no matter how conservative you try to make your voting record, Republicans will find a way to hit you. In this case, even though Rep. Mike McInytre voted against the Affordable Care Act, the announcer explains that he "voted for Nancy Pelosi for House Speaker four times—that's how we got Obamacare!"

Meanwhile, Republican David Rouzer opts for the standard GOP "third-party validator" route in his own new spot, with his grandma claiming he'll protect Medicare and Social Security. I wonder if this shtick works, because we see it so much, or if it's simply the best among bad options.

OH-06: The DCCC rounded out a busy week last week with two more ads. The first attacks GOP Rep. Bill Johnson for closing manufacturing plants and shipping jobs overseas as a business executive (see just below for the other).

PA-12: The D-Trip's other spot attacks Republican Keith Rothfus on similar grounds (promising to protect tax breaks for companies that send jobs overseas), but as PoliticsPA's Keegan Gibson points out, one claim rests on an absurdly slender reed: namely, that Rothfus, as a young attorney, once "worked for a law firm that had a 'strategic alliance' with a Chinese firm," which is supposed to explain his love of outsourcing. This is incredibly weak, and the ad doesn't need this distraction.

WI-08: Republican Reid Ribble tours a factory floor, praising American manufacturing and touting "bipartisan" legislation he introduced to "punish China for breaking trade rules."

Grab Bag:

WATN?: Johnny Longtorso brings us this amazing report:

Remember Hudson Hallum, the awesomely-named victor in a special election to the Arkansas House in July of last year? Well, he's one his way to another house—the jailhouse. And he did it in the classiest way possible, by buying votes through booze and food.

This is, of course, after his predecessor in the seat resigned after pleading guilty to theft charges. And interestingly, it could lead to the second Green Party legislative victory in Arkansas, as his resignation and withdrawal from the race has left the Green candidate the only one on the ballot.

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  So I'm the only one who wearied of SUSA x-tabs (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    webranding, weck

    Good to know. :)

  •  I Honestly Don't See Claire McCaskill (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, weck

    winning. Cause what you said is pretty accurate:

    I mean, leave the two major cities and you're basically in Alabama; it's a red-enough state he can say all manner of crazy crap and still stay within arm's length of 50%+1.

    When opportunity calls pick up the phone and give it directions to your house.

    by webranding on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:12:11 AM PDT

  •  Hill poll by Rasmussen (4+ / 0-)

    conducted last Thursday (why?!) is worth little (R+2 demographics of course) apart from the headline question about whether people see the election as a referendum on Obama or a choice about who would do the better job in the next 4 years.

    By 61-34 it's "choice", which should be good news for Obama (he was after all making a great effort to talk about "choice" in his speech, which came after most of the interviews for this poll were completed). The crosstabs look like they've been cut and pasted by a drunk and are very hard to read, but I think that the only subgroup where there's a majority for "referendum" is black voters, from which I'd deduce that even among the 34% there may be a fairly balanced split between those who would vote "yes" and "no" in a referendum on Obama's performance (84% of blacks also say their opinion of Obama has improved greatly since he took office).

    So I'd take away from this that Romney-Ryan have to persuade people that they'd do a better job over the next 4 years - merely hammering away about what they consider Obama's failings in the previous 4 won't be sufficient.

  •  Good call on NJ-SEN (6+ / 0-)

    With Menendez on cruise control and Rpmney Co. already conceding PA... where is the money pit for GOP cash this year?

    We can always rely on them flooding one of our Blue states with worthless futile money and talking big about their "silent majority" or whatever...  

    Are they still flirting with NH for the President race?  They still dumb enough to think they can beat Hirono in HI-SEN?

    Красота спасет мир --F. Dostoevsky

    by Wisper on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:19:18 AM PDT

    •  Yes and yes, but (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      They'll keep spending in New Hampshire straight thru October, because it's Rmoney's favorite home state nowadays. As for the Gov wanna-be Senator in the Pacific, why the hell not?

      The problem this year is that it don't matter much if they piss away a fat bladderful of cash in New Hampshire or Hawaii or any money-sink in between. Like frat boys at a keg party, they got plenty more where that came from.

      Having said that, I contradict myself to say I was amazed the NRSC pulled its ads from the nipplegate-famous Heather Wilson in New Mexico.

      Maybe the billionaires are giving their all to the presidential campaign. Or perhaps they have their own PACs to play with in the Congressional races, so the NRSC isn't getting to be the channel for their donations.

  •  Maybe the DeLong poll in CA-47 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Is one of those informed candidate profile matchups  that runs after the head to head polling. You can get almost any result you want with those.

  •  Are there any poll numbers for TN-04? (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    abgin, Sandy on Signal


    You can't scare me, I'm sticking to the Union - Woody Guthrie

    by sewaneepat on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:24:02 AM PDT

  •  What's the over/under for when the FL-26 race (8+ / 0-)

    becomes inspiration for a CSI Miami episode?

    -1.63/ -1.49 "Speaking truth to power" (with snark of course)!

    by dopper0189 on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:24:29 AM PDT

  •  MO-Sen If Akin is still around (6+ / 0-)

    after the final withdrawal deadline Sept 25 (in spite of what's I'm sure continuing efforts to get him out by the GOP), then at that point Rove and all the other Super PACs will almost surely return to this race.
    The Senate is just simply too valuable a prize for them not to. Especially when they finally conclude to themselves that Romney is heading for a loss.

  •  Charles Koch: The King of Comedy! (8+ / 0-)

    Who knew?

    Chuckie Koch today pens an opinion piece in The Wall Street Journal titled: "Corporate Cronyism Harms America."

    I'm not kidding.

    Holy shit, this is great stuff! I'd quote it, but you wouldn't believe it. And I am thinking that perhaps The Journal is pulling our collective legs.

    Too fuckin' funny...

  •  i saw a little bit (5+ / 0-)

    of morning joe this morning and as joe was complaining and listing reasons why romney was going to lose mika was just staring at the camera and nodding affirmatively with a little smile on her face, it was hilarious, go mika, the dream lives on and say hello to your dad for us.

  •  WI-Sen: About Tommy's political director (4+ / 0-)

    Brian Nemoir, Tommy Thompson's political director and the guy behind the homophobic attacks against Baldwin, ran David Prosser's WI-SC campaign last year. Prosser won narrowly in a race that featured an infamous vote-counting snafu by Waukesha County, Wisconsin Clerk Kathy Nickolaus.

    Lisa Mux, a progressive political blogger from Waukesha, created this petition asking Thompson to denounce his campaign's homophobic attacks against Baldwin. It's already got over 3,000 signatures!

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 05:53:33 AM PDT

  •  McCaskill hasn't changed--she's still bad. (0+ / 0-)

    I wouldn't lift a finger to pull this race out for her.

    As for that Rivera story, that poor, endangered woman should seek political asylum somewhere.  

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 06:03:26 AM PDT

  •  obama team 114 million smackaroos last month: (12+ / 0-)

    which is before the Obama's convention of donations.  

  •  WI-AD-13: Pokrandt to the rescue for Dems? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Well, after WI-AD-13 was made considerably more Republican in redistricting by adding parts of east-central Waukesha County, Lisa Mux, a Waukesha County-based political blogger, said on Twitter that she saw a bunch of pro-Pokrant yard signs in the Wauwatosa area.

    Pokrandt, in order to win, would have to run up the margins in the Milwaukee County portion of AD-13 (a couple of City of Milwaukee precincts that, believe it or not, are probably Republican-leaning, as well portions of Wauwatosa and West Allis that are probably Republican-leaning) and not get blown out in the Waukesha County portion of AD-13 (Elm Grove and the southern part of Brookfield, both of which are probably heavily-Republican).

    If Pokrandt wins, that would be seen as a huge rebuttal to Scott Walker's extreme agenda on Walker's home turf!

    Joe Lieberman, Mike Madigan, Andrew Cuomo, and Tim Cullen...why are they Democrats?

    by DownstateDemocrat on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 06:20:39 AM PDT

  •  Rasmussen: Obama 50 Romney 45 (9+ / 0-)

    That's now a 7 point bounce for Obama since the position he was in at the start of the DNC, according to Rasmussen.

    TBH I was expecting the numbers to peak at yesterday's level but another +1 today adds icing on the cake.

    Let's remember that with Rasmussen's partisan sampling this number is the equivalent of around +10.

  •  Been in Detroit and Petoskey, UP this weekend and (6+ / 0-)

    I have seen so many ads.  In Detroit, I saw, in about every other commercial break at least 2 ads in support of "Support our Jobs" amendment which would enshrine collective bargaining rights in their state constitution.  That is great.  I didn't see any opposition commercials yet.  I also came up to upstate in Petoskey (to see my 90 year old aunt).  My aunt, and all the family up here are STRONG democrats (a rarity in upstate).  They are fired up.  I have also seen the League of Conservation Voters ad against Benishek up here: it's really good.  It is a negative against him and also includes a positive spot on McDowell.  I am going into town in Petoskey today to visit the democratic headquarters to see if I can phone bank or help out with McDowell up here.

    So far, from what I have seen around Michigan, I feel really good about things.

    Oh, and in Detroit over the weekend, Al Sharpton was there at the convention center and the news estimated that he and his group registered over 50,000 new voters!  That will surely help if it is true.

    27, male, gay, living and voting in IN-7. Joe Donnelly for Senate and John Gregg for Governor! * None of my personal comments posted here reflect the campaign or campaign positions of Joe Donnelly for Indiana in any way.

    by IndyLiberal on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:05:47 AM PDT

  •  NJ State Leg (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, stevenaxelrod

    Judge rejects Tea Party-backed challenge to NJ's state legislative map:

    I didn't even know they had sued. Kind of funny how they accuse the new map of screwing over Newark and Jersey City when the new one actually splits those cities in two instead of three like last decade! (Both Newark and Jersey City are too big to fit into a single LD.)

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:54:07 AM PDT

    •  ah, I see (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      they claim that the reduction from a 3-way split to a 2-way split gave the cities less representation, which is obviously bullshit. (And at any rate, LD-27 and LD-32 only contained a small slice of Newark and Jersey City, respectively.)

      Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

      by sapelcovits on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:57:30 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  McCaskill can still lose. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    That is, in the same sense that anyone could lose, or a tree could fall on my car. We're not talking about walking on water here. But the very worst thing to say is that she's still heavily favored.

    Just ask yourself this: did you expect her to win or at least to do better amongst women? Now ask yourself, do you think Akin's remarks, which the Missouri electorate will be reminded of ten times every five seconds until the polls close on November 6, starting after September 23/25?

    Women usually outnumber men. While there are distinctions between different types of women, Democrats usually do better amongst this group than they do amongst men. Obviously, a bigger gender gap in turnout favors us, but instead of it being 46-54 as it was in 2008, let's say it will be 47-53. If McCaskill gets 60 percent of women and 40 percent of men, she wins with 50.60 percent.

    In the interest of keeping this short, I will say that this is probably the low end for her. She won't win with 58 percent of the vote overall, but she is still favored. No matter which way you cut it--because Akin won't have the resources to turn out his voters, because McCaskill will, because McCaskill now has a very specific and very demographic-friendly issue to motivate voters with--she comes in ahead. And that's before you consider an issue like the Ryan plan, which cuts across gender lines.

    "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

    by bjssp on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:55:11 AM PDT

  •  Notion Akin could win is dead-wrong (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades, NMLib, stevenaxelrod

    McCaskill has it in the bank if Akin doesn't drop out, I respect you David Jarman but I marvel at how many liberals are convinced Akin somehow could still win.  He can't.

    Missouri isn't Alabama, even outside the Metro areas.  It's conservative and trending moreso, yes, but it's not at that level.

    And the point about Akin's money drying up is part and parcel of why he was doomed all along.  It's a point I made myself whenever people were wringing their hands that he still could win.  You get cut off by the entire national and state party establishment, the money disappears with it.  It's not like only the hated "establishment" abandoned him, the very powerful teabagger part of the establishment (and they are part of the establishment, not separate from it) did the same.  It was always a given that Akin's abandonment would include poverty.

    Yeah we need to hope he doesn't decide late to drop out after all.  I'm guessing at this stage he won't.

    But he's not going to have his own money to spend, in addition to having no outside help.

    And no those outside groups aren't coming back in.  They're past the point of no return.  They know after all they've done to destroy their own nominee, they don't have a credible path to repairing him.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:58:57 AM PDT

    •  I'd also mention that Governor Nixon (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      is hardly in line to be President of NARAL, but he's basically pro-choice. If most if not all of Missouri felt like Rick Santorum, why would he be so favored? Why did he win so big in 2008?

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:02:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Exactly... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      One of the big reasons why Lee Fisher got beaten so badly by Rob Portman was the overwhelming money advantage. You can't have no money and then expect to win against a very well funded incumbent.

      Politics and more Formerly DGM on SSP. NM-01, 26 (chairman of the Atheist Caucus)

      by NMLib on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:54:35 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Survey USA to release State Polls for.... (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Inkan1969, OGGoldy, askew, supercereal

    Washington State
    and Kentucky


  •  It finally happened. Good. (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    sapelcovits, KingTag
    Trenton now needs to repeal the Faulkner Act so something like this doesn't happen again.

    Hail to the king, baby.

    by KingofSpades on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:07:46 AM PDT

  •  IN-Sen: Donnelly goes hard negative (GOOD!!!) (7+ / 0-)

    Here's the ad, a great one:

    This is what Dems need to do against extemist Rethug opponents, when an extremist is the opponent.

    I wish Christine Vilsack would do this to Steve King, or someone on her behalf.

    Note that Donnelly isn't shy to do this under his own name, not waiting for the DSCC.

    44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

    by DCCyclone on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:15:52 AM PDT

    •  Now that's the ads he needs to be running... (0+ / 0-)

      Not feeling the overall style and I wouldn't use Rep Ryan against him, because it just opens Ryan into defending Mourdoch.  

      Let Mourdock's remarks stand for themselves.  

      Donnelly should look to the McCaskill commercial where she's #50.  Donnelly should point to his own voting record and how he voted with GOP/against own party x percent of the time and paint himself as the moderate problem solver against the rigid ideologue Mourdoch.  

      He should also look to the Brown campaign with how Brown is running on the auto bailout.  Mourdoch still says the bailout was a bad decision even if it worked.  How many jobs lost in Indiana would that be because Mourdoch is a rigid ideologue?

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:28:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Excellent (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      stevenaxelrod, DCCyclone

      This ad hits on all the right themes -- and Joe Donnelly has the centrist record to really call Mourdock out on this -- so far he's doing a good job of setting this up as a Center vs. Far Right choice.

      Yes, Indiana is a fairly conservative state, but we're center right.  In the past twenty years, most of the time voters have been given a choice between a centrist Democrat and a very conservative Republican, the centrist Democrat has done OK.

      This Senate race is starting to heat up.  Ads from both sides constitute the vast majority of TV ads that we've seen here, and it really is starting to dominate the political season here.  Unless something dramatic happens, I do see this one going down to the wire.

    •  Good ad, although I dont know that (0+ / 0-)

      the Ryan clip was necessary. I would think Mourdock's comments on their own are pretty clear. Ryan, obviously, supports Mourdock so you dont want to elevate Ryan's opinion in this race.

    •  Christine is really frustrating me. She is running (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      an incredibly weak campaign so far. You know she has the contacts and resources to be raising more money and making better ads.

      President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

      by askew on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 10:20:53 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  CNN is going to release NEW NATIONAL POLL.... (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, LordMike, askew

    at 4pm ET in the SitRoom.

    I'm also hearing that they going to release some Swing State Polls on Thursday.

  •  MN 6: Dem poll has Bachman up by only 2 (4+ / 0-)

    48-46.  From Salon.

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:29:16 AM PDT

    •  Link (0+ / 0-)

      White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

      by spiderdem on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:32:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  You run against her with a blue dog... (0+ / 0-)

      and call her out for embarrassing the constituency and how these times needs a serious representative not one more focused on getting on television and throwing partisan rhetorical bombs.  

      We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

      by Jacoby Jonze on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:34:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  They don't really exist in that district (0+ / 0-)

        There are no Collin Peterson types here (Peterson wouldn't win this district). This isn't the part of Minnesota that used to be dominated by the Famer-Labor Party (MN-1, and MN-7 are full of these types of voters). MN-6 is exurban religious fundamentalists. Don't get me wrong, Bachmann will under-perform, per usual. However with how conservative this district is, I don't see a plausible path to victory for the DFL. Remember, This district got more Republican in redistricting. Also, we nominated a rich hotel executive, but he has thusfar not put in any of his own money.

        Sadly, this is a race out of reach.

        •  If for some reason we ended up winning (0+ / 0-)

          it in a cycle where we weren't written out of it for the next cycle, do you think we could hold it?

          Also, how rich is this guy? I don't expect people to liquidate everything to pay for a campaign, but if he's rich enough to drop some coin in the race to make himself competitive, why doesn't he do it? He's put in about $250,000 of his own money already, which is a lot, but if he's got a lot to spare, why isn't he doing it? Why run if you aren't serious?

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 09:09:27 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I don't think any other Republican (0+ / 0-)

            Other than Bachmann, could hope to lose this district if they tried. If Bachmann manages to lose, provided she doesn't win the nomination the next cycle, it would be as sure of a flip back to Republicans as any district in the country (Joe Cao levels).

            He is officially worth between 22 and 111 million. He further qualifies that by saying he is "in the middle." So my guess is he is worth 60-80 million. Certainly able to put in more than 250k.

            But to his defense, it is unfair to expect someone to put their own money forward to run for political office, when most candidates rely on outside fundraising.

            •  I don't think it's unfair. (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:

              If he's not going to rely on outside money, why wouldn't he use his own? It's gotta be one of the other, right?

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 11:32:22 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

    •  Could be anoter close race for her (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, askew, bumiputera, stevenaxelrod

      Those last few points are the most difficult to get, but hopefully Graves can have better luck than previous challengers.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:45:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  "Barely" (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    jj32, itskevin, askew

    Why the qualification from First Read on Obama out-raising in August? Romney did so comfortably for three months. This is a significant change yet they downplay it? No need to overplay it but still...

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 08:51:05 AM PDT

    •  It is a trivial amount of money (0+ / 0-)

      Although given that Romney outraised Obama for 3 months, people forget just how much of an advantage Obama had going into April. Hundreds of millions of dollars.

      •  The point is he caught up (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, askew

        If the August margin had been the same but in Romney's favor I doubt they would say he barely outraised the president. The word is completely redundant in reporting the news other than to downplay it. They also pooh-pooh movement in the trackers in a similar manner.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 09:24:20 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Obama matching his 2012 approval high on RCP (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, itskevin

    today at 49.2 (up 2% in a week). If a few of the national polls in coming days show a convention bounce for him he might yet get to the "magic" 50% level which is likely to trigger some excited media commentary.

  •  Ideology rankings do not work for everybody (0+ / 0-)

    A few other interesting things I noticed at the National Journal rankings:

    1. Bernie Sanders is ranked the 29th most liberal Senator, meaning he is more conservative than Tim Johnson and Bob Casey.  Rand Paul as the 32nd most conservative Senator, and Jim DeMint at 9th.  This ranking obviously does not work for the rogues in the party who vote against things that do not go far enough according to their ideology.

    2. It also doesn't deal well with the Majority Leader; the Majority Leader is going to vote with his/her party nearly every time, yet Reid is ranked 18th due to the vote switching tactic.

    3. Gillibrand at the very top, probably still overcompensating for her centrist reputation from the House, not that I'm complaining.  

    4. Johnson the #2 most conservative in a light blue state, right down there with his colleagues from Wyoming, Idaho, and Oklahoma. Gotta give him credit for governing with the same extreme views he campaigned on.  Should be an easy defeat in 2016.

    5. Blumenthal is at the same rank as Mark Warner!

    6. Levin, Carper, and Inouye are solid centrists in very blue states, but they are so entrenched it's hard to see them going anywhere until they retire.  Dems are far too tolerant of their apostates.

    7. Harkin and Rockefellar are going to be huge losses for progressives when they retire.

    •  re: Johnson (0+ / 0-)

      Walker also governed with the extreme right views he campaigned on...then won again. Wisconsin seems to be turning into Oklahoma North.

      •  That is a huge stretch (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        Wisconsin is not the liberal bastion a lot of people envisioned when Obama carried it by nearly 20. But turning into Oklahoma? Come on.

        •  Johnson, a useless teabagger (0+ / 0-)

          Beat Russ Feingold. Walker was given the blessing from the voters to continue destroying the state. Romney and Lyin Ryan have made it competitive. They'll probably have 2 useless teabagger senators in January. That's quite a large rightward shift in as little as 4 years.

          •  I do have issue with one point of that (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:

            Thompson is far from a "useless teabagger" ala Johnson. Thompson, although I agree with him deeply on many issues, had by every conceivable measure, a long successful governorship. I would never vote for the man if I lived in Wisconsin, but to say Thompson = Johnson is simply intellectually dishonest.

          •  It's always been a purple state (0+ / 0-)

            so of course it's moderately competitive when the VP candidate is from that state. Bush got within a few percent both times he ran.

            Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

            by fearlessfred14 on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 10:47:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

  •  RI-01 polling? (0+ / 0-)

    I've gotten telephone calls almost every night polling me on the RI-01 race, both the primary and the general -- but no results ever get released.

    I've assumed this means that they're Gemma or Republican-funded polls (which seems likely from the way the questions are slanted) and that the results didn't come out to be anything they wanted to boast about.

    But I wish I felt more confident in the Dems holding this seat. The most promising thing is that straight-ticket voting is pretty common.

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