Week 4 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: The only ratings change was Virginia, moving from a Republican pickup to a Democratic Hold. Kaine has made up ground slowly but surely and now has gone ahead of Allen.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 79.9 - 20.1. Flake extended his lead this week, nearing the 80% support to be removed from the board. Republican Hold
Connecticut: Congressman Chris Murphy(D) leads Wrestling executive Linda McMahon (R) 64.5 - 37.5. McMahan picks up a few points, but still a long way to go. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 58.5 - 41.5. This race has settled in a rut. No change from last week. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 68.2 - 31.8. Mourdock picks up about 10 points. This is significant because there had been little movement for several weeks. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Brown(D) leads Warren (D) 55.0 - 45.0. The week of Warren's comeback. She made up about 20 points against Brown this week. I guess her convention speech did something. Republican Hold
Michigan: Stabenow(D) leads Hoekstra (R) 77.2 - 22.8. Stabenow further extends her lead. She's nearing the 80% necessary to take this one off the board. Democratic Hold
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 60.4 - 39.6. Akin made a small move this week, but still has a ways to go. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D) 69.4 - 30.6. Rehlberg picks up another 5 points. If Tester is going to make a move, the clock is ticking. Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 66.0 - 34.0. Heller picked up a few points, still looks strong. Republican Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 62.2 - 37.8. Heitkamp has a little bit of a comeback. Well, at least she's out of the 20's now. Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 60.2 - 39.8. Brown picks up a couple of points from last week. This is 3 weeks in a row Brown has picked up a few points. Mandel is digging a hole that will be difficult to climb out of. Democratic Hold
Virginia: Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) 53.1 - 46.9. The big news of the week. Kaine has now pulled ahead of Allen. This is the second lead change in this race. Democratic Hold
Wisconsin: Thompson(R) leads Baldwin(D) 77.8 - 22.2. This race bounced a lot this week. For a while Thompson went over 80%, but in the end Baldwin actually picked up a couple of points for the week. But she still needs help. Republican Pickup
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
Results: So the current Intrade tally is 4 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin with an Independent pickup (Maine)).
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 50 Republicans - 50 Democrats (including 2 independents).