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Week 4 of the intrading the Senate.

The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign

Methodology:  I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.

Ratings changes this week:  The only ratings change was Virginia, moving from a Republican pickup to a Democratic Hold. Kaine has made up ground slowly but surely and now has gone ahead of Allen.

Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 79.9 - 20.1. Flake extended his lead this week, nearing the 80% support to be removed from the board. Republican Hold

Connecticut: Congressman Chris Murphy(D) leads Wrestling executive Linda McMahon (R) 64.5 - 37.5. McMahan picks up a few points, but still a long way to go. Democratic Hold

Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 58.5 - 41.5. This race has settled in a rut. No change from last week. Democratic Hold

Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 68.2 - 31.8. Mourdock picks up about 10 points. This is significant because there had been little movement for several weeks. Republican Hold

Massachusetts: Brown(D) leads Warren (D) 55.0 - 45.0. The week of Warren's comeback. She made up about 20 points against Brown this week. I guess her convention speech did something. Republican Hold

Michigan: Stabenow(D) leads Hoekstra (R) 77.2 - 22.8. Stabenow further extends her lead. She's nearing the 80% necessary to take this one off the board. Democratic Hold

Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R)  60.4 - 39.6. Akin made a small move this week, but still has a ways to go. Democratic Hold

Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D)  69.4 - 30.6. Rehlberg picks up another 5 points. If Tester is going to make a move, the clock is ticking. Republican Pickup

Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D)  66.0 - 34.0. Heller picked up a few points, still looks strong. Republican Hold

North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D)  62.2 - 37.8. Heitkamp has a little bit of a comeback. Well, at least she's out of the 20's now. Republican Pickup

Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R)  60.2 - 39.8. Brown picks up a couple of points from last week. This is 3 weeks in a row Brown has picked up a few points. Mandel is digging a hole that will be difficult to climb out of. Democratic Hold

Virginia: Kaine(D) leads Allen(R) 53.1 - 46.9. The big news of the week. Kaine has now pulled ahead of Allen. This is the second lead change in this race.  Democratic Hold

Wisconsin: Thompson(R) leads Baldwin(D)  77.8 - 22.2. This race bounced a lot this week. For a while Thompson went over 80%, but in the end Baldwin actually picked up a couple of points for the week. But she still needs help.  Republican Pickup

Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:

California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)

Results:  So the current Intrade tally is 4 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin with an Independent pickup (Maine)).

Final Score:

Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 50 Republicans - 50 Democrats (including 2 independents).

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Comment Preferences

  •  Shouldn't Virginia ... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Sylv

    be a Democratic hold?

  •  I don't think the GOP wins in VA (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice

    Kaine has more money and will be the beneficiary of a big pro-Obama turnout.

    I think the Montana race is a lot closer than it appears.  I've read a bunch of articles on the race over the past few days and I think Tester is coming across as the more likable candidate and is providing a decent defense of his votes in support of and against the Administration.  Tester also has more money than Rehberg and can put his name to ads that Rehberg can't.  Rehberg needs superpacs, but I don't think those ads can work except in a vacuum and there won't be one in MT.

    I was pessimistic on this race for the longest time, but I now  believe Tester can win this thing.

    I also think the Dems have the better candidate in ND and we can win that race as well.

    The two races that still frustrate me are Nevada and Massachusetts. I believe we should win both, but we are slightly behind.  I think the better shot is in Nevada.  I'm not sure Warren has the political skills to market herself to counter Brown.  Berkley is an able politician.

    In Wisconsin, I think Thompson is not a good campaigner but he clearly has the edge over Baldwin.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:16:25 AM PDT

  •  Improving trend (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice

    Let's hope we can push a few more seats into the D column before November.

    “Parties do not lead revolutions. They follow them. And then only when forced to.” Joe Bageant

    by tgypsy on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 07:39:30 AM PDT

  •  Washington should be a Democratic hold (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    wilderness voice, chipoliwog

    I'm pretty sure Maria Cantwell will be reelected.

    But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

    by Dbug on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 10:23:11 AM PDT

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