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Yesterday, Obama's approval/disapproval figures were 50/44 or +6 favorable.
Today's figures were the same 50/44.

Why is this great news and sign of a continued strong bounce?

Look at the daily results of the 3 day moving average:

08/25-27/2012    43    48
08/26-28/2012    43    47
08/27-29/2012    44    47
08/28-30/2012    45    46
08/29-31/2012    45    46
08/30-09/1/2012    43    48
08/31-09/2/2012    45    48
09/1-3/2012    45    48
09/2-4/2012    47    47
09/3-5/2012    49    45
09/4-6/2012    52    43
09/5-7/2012    52    42
09/6-8/2012    50    44
09/7-9/2012    50    44

Obama's best day all year just fell out of the 3-day moving average for the approval ratings.  The 9/4-6 results were 5 points better than the 9/3-5 results, which means that he was actually around +15 on 9/6 (to raise the 3 day average by 5 points).

So Obama lost a +15 day from the moving average but didn't drop a single point based on the polling from yesterday, 9/9.

Pretty impressive !!!

Based on this, I expect the 7 day head to head to move from +5 to +6 or +7 within the next few days.  Of course, this assumes a relationship between the approval / horserace figures, which I believe is more than reasonable and has been borne out over the last week or so.

UPDATE:

Given some Comments I have received, I am adding daily breakdown estimates, as well as the Head to Head results over the same period.

First my estimates of the daily results (not the 3 day averages) of the the Approval ratings.  I also list the margin from Obama's viewpoint and the day that was dropped from the 3 day average and the margin on the dropped day:

Favorability        Margin    Day dropped

30-Aug    45    46    (1)  
31-Aug    45    46    (1)  
1-Sep    40    52    (12)  
2-Sep    50    46    4     Aug 30   -1
3-Sep    45    46    (1)    Aug 31   -1
4-Sep    47    48    (1)    Sep 1   -12
5-Sep    54    41    13     Sep 2   +4
6-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 3   -1
7-Sep    46    45    1     Sep 4   -1
8-Sep    48    47    1     Sep 5   +13
9-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 6   +16

Sept. 1 was an awful day, and Sept. 5 and 6 were of course great days.  But Sept. 7 and 8 were actually pretty bad; the 3 day average only looked good because of Sept 5 and 6.   But then yesterday, Sept 9, the numbers were great again, and had to be, because both of Obama's best days were no longer in the calculation.  I estimate that Obama did as well in yesterday's approval poll as on Sept. 6, up around 16.

Below are the 7 day moving averages for the head to head, except now the day dropped margin is the margin for the Approval poll, not the Head to Head.  I have not bothered to extrapolate the likely daily numbers of the head to head, but they probably closely mirror the favorability numbers:

Head to Head                    Margin    Day dropped
8/24-30               47    46    1    
08/25-31               47 46    1    
08/26-09/1         47    46    1    
08/27-09/2         47    46    1    
08/28-09/3         47    46    1    
08/29-09/4         47    46    1    
08/30-09/5         47    46    1    
08/31-09/6         48    45    3             Aug 30   -1
09/1-7               49    45    4             Aug 31   -1
09/2-8               49    44    5             Sep 1   -12
09/3-9               49    44    5             Sep 2   +4

So it looks like August 8 was not a very good day for Obama, because an awful day for him, Sept 1, was dropped and he did not improve in the Head to Head.  However, if you look at his Favorability ratings over the prior 7 days, they come out to +4.6, which rounds up to the +5 he shows in the Head to Head from 9/2-8.

Similarly, his Favorability ratings average from 9/3-9 is around +6.4, slightly higher than his Head to Head over that time but not far off.

Obviously, when Sept 5 and 6 are dropped from the 7 day Head to Head he will have trouble maintaining a +5 lead.  Which is why yesterday's results of about a +16 were so fantastic.  They will cushion the falling back to earth or, better yet, they indicate that he is continuing to get high Approval marks following the convention.

Also, expect the head to head lead to go up significantly over the next 2 days.  Obama is up 47 over the last 5 days alone on Approval; even if he were to break even over the next 2 days, which is unlikely, he would still be +6.8 on the Approval ratings over 7 days.  If he were to be +4 on the Approval ratings on each of the next 2 days, not unlikely given his +16 yesterday,  he would be +8 on the Approval ratings in 2 days.  Either way, that should result in a significant bump in the Head to Head, because they do tend to run in tandem.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Not great news, really (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    matrix, Frank Palmer

    Means the bounce has stalled out a bit, and the recent data is similar to what it was a week ago (very small Obama lead).  

    Would have liked another point or two on the upside, but all in all, you can't really complain.

  •  head-to-head is? (0+ / 0-)

    Thanks for posting of course but why bury the lead (no wordplay intended)?  Is it down?  If so -- even if it's the same -- then O had a terrible polling day yesterday.

    Job approval is great; the voting poll is better.  I could go to Gallup but I like getting my news from friendly sources ...

    •  Exactly (0+ / 0-)

      Not trying to be a downer, but I fully expected Obama to roll out to a slightly bigger lead.  The diarest says he expects this to happen in the coming days, and he is probably (definitely) much better at math than I am, but I don't really see that as likely from my limited perspective.

      An analysis of the horse race samples would be very helpful to clarify your point...

  •  The Romney Camp Is Calling It "A Sugar High"..... (5+ / 0-)

    Sour grapes?  You bet.  They went hypoglycemic after their Convention.  No bounce to speak of.....just a resounding flatline.  

    Somebody needs to call their doctor.  

  •  Important number the same: 49-44 (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Dave460, typo ink

    That's pretty disappointing.  That indicates, most likely, about a 3-point lead in yesterday's polling.  Hey -- good of course, but way down from the past three days.  Bloom off the rose a little; expected with the job numbers and usual bounce-fade.

    If O keeps a 2-3 point day every day for the next three, the margin should remain at 5-6 by Friday with all days post-DNC, and that's pretty damn good.

    •  Keep in mind their head-to-head tracker is 7 days (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Frank Palmer

      So movement there is much more slow and incremental.  Obama got a couple of great days to close out the DNC that gave Obama a sudden shift in the horserace numbers, but but that's unusual.

      I expect Obama to possibly gain another point or so in the head-to-head over the next couple of days, and then stall out from there before eventually easing back a couple of points as the convention high subsides from the tracker.

      If a week from now, Obama has a 3-4 point lead in the Gallup tracker, I'll be quite happy.

    •  One day samples (0+ / 0-)

      in a tracking poll, especially on a weekend, have a lot of variability. Keeping a 5 point lead next Sat. would be great. Don't forget, Gallup has had a R bias lately. The CW today is that Romney is in trouble and that could have a self fulling prophecy effect going forward.

  •  If his best day came off and he still leads by 5 (4+ / 0-)

    points that's a good sign.  I hate trackers and I don't think these polls matter as the big national polls and the state polls which will be issued probably next week.  I think all we need to know is that Obama generated momentum and is in very good shape for the fall campaign.

    The Bain ads didn't materialize in polling until about 1 month after the fact.  We can't look for knock out blows in a long race.  Those are a myth.  This Convention had a real impact and you can tell from the enthusiasm on the President's bus tour through Florida, the canvassing that happened in VA this weekend and as well as the fundraising surprise.  We are actually in better shape than we were 4 years ago after McCain had his convention.  We are running a better campaign and have spent our money more wisely.  Those campaigns usually win.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 10:47:54 AM PDT

  •  What the polling indicates is that.... (0+ / 0-)

    ...President Obama has an upside. Some  voters just aren't ready to full committ to him yet.

    Romney, on the other hand, has no upside.  He can't get past 45-46%.

  •  Job Approval is 3-day and Head-to-Head is 7-day (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    itskevin

    Keep this in mind, people. The 49-44 number stayed the same but we don't know what rolled off a week ago.   Rasmussen confirmed the 5-point lead in their 3-day sample so it's probably a good reflection of where things are with Gallup.

    The diarist is right about the job approval numbers being very good news, though.  It goes on a 3-day sample and a HUGE Obama day rolled off (Thursday night). Gallup even said that their Thursday night number was massive. So that means Obama maintained a very good approval number Sunday and the jobs report is fully accounted for.

  •  Likely daily results on both polls may clarify (0+ / 0-)

    Let me further explain my thinking by showing charts of both the approval and head to head charts with the likely daily results of the approval ratings.

    First my estimates of the daily results (not the 3 day averages) of the the Approval ratings.  I also list the margin from Obama's viewpoint and the day that was dropped from the 3 day average and the margin on the dropped day:

    Favorability        Margin    Day dropped

    30-Aug    45    46    (1)   
    31-Aug    45    46    (1)   
    1-Sep    40    52    (12)   
    2-Sep    50    46    4     Aug 30   -1
    3-Sep    45    46    (1)    Aug 31   -1
    4-Sep    47    48    (1)    Sep 1   -12
    5-Sep    54    41    13     Sep 2   +4
    6-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 3   -1
    7-Sep    46    45    1     Sep 4   -1
    8-Sep    48    47    1     Sep 5   +13
    9-Sep    56    40    16     Sep 6   +16

    Sept. 1 was an awful day, and Sept. 5 and 6 were of course great days.  But Sept. 7 and 8 were actually pretty bad; the 3 day average only looked good because of Sept 5 and 6.   But then yesterday, Sept 9, the numbers were great again, and had to be, because both of Obama's best days were no longer in the calculation.  I estimate that Obama did as well in yesterday's approval poll as on Sept. 6.

    Below are the 7 day moving averages for the head to head, except now the day dropped margin is the margin for the Approval poll, not the Head to Head.  I have not bothered to extrapolate the likely daily numbers of the head to head, but they probably closely mirror the favorability numbers:

    Head to Head                    Margin    Day dropped
    8/24-30               47    46    1    
    08/25-31               47 46    1    
    08/26-09/1         47    46    1    
    08/27-09/2         47    46    1    
    08/28-09/3         47    46    1    
    08/29-09/4         47    46    1    
    08/30-09/5         47    46    1    
    08/31-09/6         48    45    3             Aug 30   -1
    09/1-7               49    45    4             Aug 31   -1
    09/2-8               49    44    5             Sep 1   -12
    09/3-9               49    44    5             Sep 2   +4

    So it looks like August 8 was not a very good day for Obama, because an awful day for him, Sept 1, was dropped and he did not improve in the Head to Head.  However, if you look at his Favorability ratings over the prior 7 days, they come out to +4.6, which rounds up to the +5 he shows in the Head to Head from 9/2-8.

    Similarly, his Favorability ratings average from 9/3-9 is around +6.4, slightly higher than his Head to Head over that time.

    Obviously, when Sept 5 and 6 are dropped from the 7 day Head to Head he will have trouble maintaining a +5 lead.  Which is why yesterday's results of about a +16 were so fantastic.  They will cushion the falling back to earth or, better yet, they indicate that he is continuing to get high Approval marks following the convention.

    I will edit my post to add the above.

    •  Dave... (0+ / 0-)

      You might appreciate this post by Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium. He tried to back out the numbers too, and estimated that the biggest day for approvals was the day after Michelle's speech, with Thursday (right after Clinton's) a close second.

      See the update at the bottom:

      http://election.princeton.edu/...

      •  Thanks Kevin (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        Mr. Wang's methods are obviously more sophisticated than my back of the envelope estimates, but our results are very similar.  Most people don't realize how huge a move has occurred when a multiple day moving average moves 4 or 5 points in one direction.  And how sometimes, when results drop out of a moving average, no change in the bottom line can actually be highly significant.

  •  The other thing I would add (0+ / 0-)

    is that Obama's bounce didn't start after the GOP convention, but before it.  He was down in this Gallup poll for most of August and started  a slow steady spike since the Ryan bounce faded.  He was down -3 or -4 with approval ratings ranging from -3 to -8.  If you look at this poll from that trend (from roughly when Ryan was picked until now) Obama has made a pretty big gain of about 9 points which actually aligns with Rasmussen.  Rasmussen has actually been a bit friendlier to the President than has Gallup over the past 2 months. Ras has generally had Obama ahead on more days than Gallup and has had relatively high approval ratings for the President (except for the GOP convention when they were stepping on the scale).

    The wildcard is whether Gallup changed its formula (i.e., dems v. GOP v. Indie, race, age etc.) during this time period.  Their poll would have more value if they were using the same internal weights.  If they changed them to make them more D favorable, then that sort of diminishes the poll's value.  

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 11:38:14 AM PDT

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