• NRCC: The NRCC just launched a massive new round of TV ad spending, with almost $4 million going toward buys in 23 districts. We've rounded up all the ads at the link, 21 in total. (Why not 23? Two districts appear to be re-ups of existing buys, PA-12 and WI-07.)
• CT-Sen: This sounds like a total non-story to me: It turns out that Dem Rep. Chris Murphy was once late with rent on an apartment, and, some years later, missed some mortgage payments on his new home. In both cases, he was sued, but then quickly got up-to-date on his payments and the complaints were withdrawn. Murphy chalks both instances up as oversights on account of an extremely demanding lifestyle, and there's just no reason to believe otherwise, regardless of whatever crap Linda McMahon is trying to stir up. If anything, these incidents just serve to humanize Murphy.
• NM-Sen: In the Albuquerque Journal's first poll of the New Mexico Senate race (conducted by Research & Polling, Inc.), Democrat Martin Heinrich once again holds a sold lead over Republican Heather Wilson, 49-42. And these numbers further support the recent decision by the NRSC to triage this race in favor of better opportunities. Also, the sample certainly isn't especially optimistic for Democrats: The same poll found Obama leading Romney just 45-40, by far the president's lowest vote total in any public polling here this cycle.
• HI-Sen: Democrat Mazie Hirono goes with a rarely-seen message, saying that "national Republicans need just four seats to control the U.S. Senate, to stop President Obama's agenda"—hence don't vote for Linda Lingle. You can pull this off in a very blue state like Hawaii.
• IN-Sen: Democrat Joe Donnelly uses an infamous clip of Richard Mourdock saying "bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view," but then confusingly features a clip of Paul Ryan saying he disagrees and some other segments that garble the message. Re-cut this ad with just the Mourdock quotes. That's all you need.
• MA-Sen: Republican Sen. Scott Brown sings his own praises for helping pass the STOCK Act, which clamped down on "insider" trading by members of Congress. He even features footage of President Obama telling him "good job" at the signing ceremony.
• PA-Sen: An extremely biker-ish looking biker touts Dem Sen. Bob Casey's various efforts on behalf of Pennsylvania—and in particular, his work to help keep a Harley-Davidson factory open in York.
• WI-Sen: Democrat Tammy Baldwin lacerates Republican Tommy Thompson for his works as George Bush's HHS secretary, when he helped "mak[e] it illegal for Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices." Then after leaving DC, he "made millions working for a lobbying firm that represents drug companies."
• WV-Gov: Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin touts his small-town roots and says he's "fought the Obama administration's war on coal."
• CA-30: Badly in need of finding additional votes to make up a very challenging structural gap against fellow Rep. Brad Sherman, Dem Rep. Howard Berman is going trolling for Republican supporters. Two GOP senators, John McCain and Lindsay Graham, are endorsing Berman, as is Joe Lieberman. Since the November general election only features two Democrats on the ballot (and voting write-in isn't even allowed), Berman's move makes strategic sense. But he also risks alienating Dems who aren't too keen on his rightward outreach, especially since this is part of a growing trend: Previously, one of the most appalling California Republicans, Rep. Darrell Issa, gave Berman a thumbs up as well.
• FL-18: Allen West, still trapped in a time-warp, thinking it's the 1950s and that he's an eager staffer working for Sen. Joseph McCarthy:
"We are now $16 trillion in debt. We have 47 million Americans on food stamps. We have close to 9.5 million more Americans in three-and-a-half years on the poverty rolls. That's not turning the corner. But yet, they want to bring out an old Soviet Union, Marxist-Socialist theme for their campaign called "Forward." I have to ask you one simple question. Where is the Soviet Union today?"• FL-18, -22: Big Dog Alert! The indefatigable Bill Clinton, who must be in demand like never before after his epic DNC speech, is headed to Florida this week, and on Wednesday he'll headline a fundraiser for Democrats Patrick Murphy and Lois Frankel. The Palm Beach Post also says he's visiting Orlando on behalf of the president, so perhaps he plans to help out other down-ticket candidates in that area as well (like Val Demings in FL-10).
• IL-02, IL-Sen: The latest update on two Illinois politicians who've been missing in action lately due to health issues:
Sen. Mark Kirk's plans are unknown because the senator and his aides won't comment. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s status is unclear because his people are saying plenty—but disagreeing with each other.• MN-06: Democrat Jim Graves is edging close to Rep. Michele Bachmann in his latest internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Bachman's still at 48 while Graves has crept up to 46; back in June, GQR had Bachmann up 48-43. Independents had previously favored Bachmann 45-41 but now they're going for Graves 52-37. Bachmann's toplines stayed steady because she consolidated the Republican vote. I'd view that as a positive sign because it means there are fewer conservative-leaning undecideds out there now, though Graves still has a tough climb to 50%+1.
Rick Bryant, Jackson's chief of staff, told the Tribune on Friday that the congressman had left Mayo Clinic, where he was treated for bipolar depression. The aide said he was "hopeful" that Jackson would return to work Monday.
But Jackson's wife, Chicago Ald. Sandi Jackson, 7th, cast doubt on his return in a text message reported late Friday by NBC-Ch. 5. "Gonna be home under his doctor's care until further notice," she wrote. "Won't be back to work until the doctors give the green light."
But check out Bachmann's weak response to the poll:
"Of course, Jim Graves can spend as much money as he wants to get the poll numbers he wants," said campaign spokesman Chase Kroll. "The one thing that he can't buy is the support of the people of the Sixth District."Sounds like something you'd find in the marginalia of the Loser-Speak Trifecta, right? (h/t TonyAngelo of MN Progressive Project)
• NM-01: That Albuquerque Journal poll that gave Martin Heinrich a 7-point lead statewide (and a 5-point lead to Barack Obama) also covered the state's three House races. There's really only one that matters, though, as the 2nd and 3rd aren't really being contested. However, the 1st is the Albuquerque-area open seat being vacated by Heinrich, and it looks like the Dems are on track to easily preserve it, seeing as Michelle Lujan Grisham leads GOPer Janice Arnold-Jones 46-34. (David Jarman)
• NY-01: A new super PAC called "Prosperity First" is making a $252K television buy on behalf of Republican Randy Altschuler, though the ad doesn't appear to be available online. The group is principally funded by right-wing hedge-fund manager Robert Mercer, according to sleuthing on the part of Josh Israel at ThinkProgress.
• NY-11: Politicker's Colin Campbell sure gave GOP Rep. Mike Grimm a nice zetz here. As you may know, Grimm surrogate Guy Molinari has made increasingly absurdist claims that the federal investigation of Grimm's campaign finances is all some monster conspiracy cooked up by Chuck Schumer and Eric Holder. At an event over the weekend, Campbell repeatedly pressed Grimm on these lunatic allegations, and all Grimm would say is, "You'll have to ask Guy Molinari about that." Not, "That's a distraction and I'm focusing on the election." Certainly not a rejection of Molinari's manic ravings. Just the weakest brush-off he possibly could have come up with.
• NY-21 (PDF): Here's some positive House news, courtesy of Siena's new poll of New York's redrawn 21st, a sprawling district which covers most of the northern part of the state, including the giant Adirondack Park. Even though almost 40% of the seat is new to Dem Rep. Bill Owens, he holds an imposing 49-36 lead over businessman Matt Doheny, the man who nearly beat him last cycle. (Green Party candidate Donald Hassig takes an unusually high 8.) Owens also has nifty 51-22 favorables, while Doheny's well behind at 36-31.
So, to good to be true? Well, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-45 (PDF), which exactly matches Obama's five-point margin here in 2008. That doesn't seem implausible, seeing as most polling has not really shown a statewide dropoff for Obama in New York compared to last time. It's also very similar to the generic congressional ballot (framed as "would you like to see Republicans retain control of the House?"), where respondents prefer Dem control 50-44. That suggests that Hassig, the Green, may be eating into Doheny's margin more than Owens'. Odd, perhaps, and it seems very unlikely he'll take 8% on election day, but it's not impossible to imagine some folks who hate Dems but are also disgusted with the GOP casting some sort of third-party protest vote.
• CA-52: Democrat Scott Peters touts his accomplishments as San Diego city councilor and as the city's port commissioner.
• CO-07: The wife of a NAVY Seal who had been gravely injured in Iraq thanks Ed Perlmutter for helping her to secure a passport and military ID in just 24 hours so that she could race to see her husband (now, it seems, thankfully recovered) at a hospital in Germany.
• IA-02: Dem Rep. Bruce Braley pushes back against GOP attacks using a clip of Bill Clinton's instantly legendary DNC speech. The Secretary of Explaining Shit says: "There were no cuts to benefits at all, none. So the Democrats didn't weaken Medicare, they strengthened Medicare." Oh, and the ad's title? "Brass." Seriously, every Democrat could run this spot.
• IL-12: Hi-larious. A YG Action Fund ad last week attacked Democrat Bill Enyart for having "little private sector experience." Now this new spot from Republican Jason Plummer calls him a "millionaire trial lawyer." Do you know what he actually was until June of this year? Adjutant General of the Illinois National Guard. Helps explain why they call him "Maj. Gen." Bill Enyart.
• IL-13: Republican Rodney Davis attacks Democrat David Gill for supporting Obamacare and says he wants to repeal it. Meanwhile, the DCCC hits Davis with a second ad, saying he "admitted his role in a scheme that skirted campaign contribution limits—limits put in place to end Blagojevich-style pay to play politics."
• NC-07: Invoking breast cancer, a woman praises Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre for "[standing] up to insurance companies, getting them to cover mammograms."
• NY-27: An unknown male narrator who actually appears on screen in this ad for Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul attacks Chris Collins for preferring to have his business make products more cheaply in China, and for admitting to benefitting from China's currency manipulation.
• OH-06: Democrat Charlie Wilson distances himself from Pelosi and Obama as much as possible, then takes a couple of jabs at GOP Rep. Bill Johnson for supporting the Ryan plan and "supports tax breaks for corporations that send our jobs overseas." (Wish there were a shorthand way of saying that.)
• VA-05: Democrat John Douglass's first ad is your usual bio/introductory spot; seeing as he's a retired Air Force general, it's heavy on his military background.
• DSCC, NRSC: Click the links for the latest IE reports from the two big Senate campaign committees. The DSCC is spending $891K in ND and OH, while the NRSC is spending $971K in those two states plus MT.
• DCCC: The D-Trip also filed a big ol' IE report on Friday, totaling over $1 million, but I'm pretty certain the ad buys they reference refer to spots that we linked throughout the week last week.
• House: In case you missed it this weekend, we tried something new: tipping the usual old Tossup/Lean/Likely chart over on its side, and excavating through the competitive (and not competitive) House seats layer by layer based on presidential percentages. The results underscore the huge influence of money (especially early money) in politics. (David Jarman)
• Maps: Ooh, I like this! 270toWin has an interactive House map (featuring new district lines) where you can click on each seat to lodge your project, using the standard safe/likely/lean/tossup rubric. Fun stuff!