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Leading Off:

NRCC: The NRCC just launched a massive new round of TV ad spending, with almost $4 million going toward buys in 23 districts. We've rounded up all the ads at the link, 21 in total. (Why not 23? Two districts appear to be re-ups of existing buys, PA-12 and WI-07.)

Senate:

CT-Sen: This sounds like a total non-story to me: It turns out that Dem Rep. Chris Murphy was once late with rent on an apartment, and, some years later, missed some mortgage payments on his new home. In both cases, he was sued, but then quickly got up-to-date on his payments and the complaints were withdrawn. Murphy chalks both instances up as oversights on account of an extremely demanding lifestyle, and there's just no reason to believe otherwise, regardless of whatever crap Linda McMahon is trying to stir up. If anything, these incidents just serve to humanize Murphy.

NM-Sen: In the Albuquerque Journal's first poll of the New Mexico Senate race (conducted by Research & Polling, Inc.), Democrat Martin Heinrich once again holds a sold lead over Republican Heather Wilson, 49-42. And these numbers further support the recent decision by the NRSC to triage this race in favor of better opportunities. Also, the sample certainly isn't especially optimistic for Democrats: The same poll found Obama leading Romney just 45-40, by far the president's lowest vote total in any public polling here this cycle.

Ads:

AZ-Sen: Democrat Rich Carmona speaks discursively on Medicare and Social Security, calling them "a contract that cannot be broken."

HI-Sen: Democrat Mazie Hirono goes with a rarely-seen message, saying that "national Republicans need just four seats to control the U.S. Senate, to stop President Obama's agenda"—hence don't vote for Linda Lingle. You can pull this off in a very blue state like Hawaii.

IN-Sen: Democrat Joe Donnelly uses an infamous clip of Richard Mourdock saying "bipartisanship ought to consist of Democrats coming to the Republican point of view," but then confusingly features a clip of Paul Ryan saying he disagrees and some other segments that garble the message. Re-cut this ad with just the Mourdock quotes. That's all you need.

MA-Sen: Republican Sen. Scott Brown sings his own praises for helping pass the STOCK Act, which clamped down on "insider" trading by members of Congress. He even features footage of President Obama telling him "good job" at the signing ceremony.

PA-Sen: An extremely biker-ish looking biker touts Dem Sen. Bob Casey's various efforts on behalf of Pennsylvania—and in particular, his work to help keep a Harley-Davidson factory open in York.

WI-Sen: Democrat Tammy Baldwin lacerates Republican Tommy Thompson for his works as George Bush's HHS secretary, when he helped "mak[e] it illegal for Medicare to negotiate lower prescription drug prices." Then after leaving DC, he "made millions working for a lobbying firm that represents drug companies."

Gubernatorial:

Ads:

WA-Gov: Democrat Jay Inslee touts the success of Washington's well-known businesses (Boeing, Microsoft) without mentioning them by name. One odd note: "In the book I wrote on clean energy, I made clear that not all companies will succeed." Why say something like this in a campaign ad?

WV-Gov: Dem Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin touts his small-town roots and says he's "fought the Obama administration's war on coal."

House:

CA-30: Badly in need of finding additional votes to make up a very challenging structural gap against fellow Rep. Brad Sherman, Dem Rep. Howard Berman is going trolling for Republican supporters. Two GOP senators, John McCain and Lindsay Graham, are endorsing Berman, as is Joe Lieberman. Since the November general election only features two Democrats on the ballot (and voting write-in isn't even allowed), Berman's move makes strategic sense. But he also risks alienating Dems who aren't too keen on his rightward outreach, especially since this is part of a growing trend: Previously, one of the most appalling California Republicans, Rep. Darrell Issa, gave Berman a thumbs up as well.

FL-18: Allen West, still trapped in a time-warp, thinking it's the 1950s and that he's an eager staffer working for Sen. Joseph McCarthy:

"We are now $16 trillion in debt. We have 47 million Americans on food stamps. We have close to 9.5 million more Americans in three-and-a-half years on the poverty rolls. That's not turning the corner. But yet, they want to bring out an old Soviet Union, Marxist-Socialist theme for their campaign called "Forward." I have to ask you one simple question. Where is the Soviet Union today?"
FL-18, -22: Big Dog Alert! The indefatigable Bill Clinton, who must be in demand like never before after his epic DNC speech, is headed to Florida this week, and on Wednesday he'll headline a fundraiser for Democrats Patrick Murphy and Lois Frankel. The Palm Beach Post also says he's visiting Orlando on behalf of the president, so perhaps he plans to help out other down-ticket candidates in that area as well (like Val Demings in FL-10).

IL-02, IL-Sen: The latest update on two Illinois politicians who've been missing in action lately due to health issues:

Sen. Mark Kirk's plans are unknown because the senator and his aides won't comment. Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr.'s status is unclear because his people are saying plenty—but disagreeing with each other.

Rick Bryant, Jackson's chief of staff, told the Tribune on Friday that the congressman had left Mayo Clinic, where he was treated for bipolar depression. The aide said he was "hopeful" that Jackson would return to work Monday.

But Jackson's wife, Chicago Ald. Sandi Jackson, 7th, cast doubt on his return in a text message reported late Friday by NBC-Ch. 5. "Gonna be home under his doctor's care until further notice," she wrote. "Won't be back to work until the doctors give the green light."

MN-06: Democrat Jim Graves is edging close to Rep. Michele Bachmann in his latest internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner. Bachman's still at 48 while Graves has crept up to 46; back in June, GQR had Bachmann up 48-43. Independents had previously favored Bachmann 45-41 but now they're going for Graves 52-37. Bachmann's toplines stayed steady because she consolidated the Republican vote. I'd view that as a positive sign because it means there are fewer conservative-leaning undecideds out there now, though Graves still has a tough climb to 50%+1.

But check out Bachmann's weak response to the poll:

"Of course, Jim Graves can spend as much money as he wants to get the poll numbers he wants," said campaign spokesman Chase Kroll. "The one thing that he can't buy is the support of the people of the Sixth District."
Sounds like something you'd find in the marginalia of the Loser-Speak Trifecta, right? (h/t TonyAngelo of MN Progressive Project)

NM-01: That Albuquerque Journal poll that gave Martin Heinrich a 7-point lead statewide (and a 5-point lead to Barack Obama) also covered the state's three House races. There's really only one that matters, though, as the 2nd and 3rd aren't really being contested. However, the 1st is the Albuquerque-area open seat being vacated by Heinrich, and it looks like the Dems are on track to easily preserve it, seeing as Michelle Lujan Grisham leads GOPer Janice Arnold-Jones 46-34. (David Jarman)

NY-01: A new super PAC called "Prosperity First" is making a $252K television buy on behalf of Republican Randy Altschuler, though the ad doesn't appear to be available online. The group is principally funded by right-wing hedge-fund manager Robert Mercer, according to sleuthing on the part of Josh Israel at ThinkProgress.

NY-11: Politicker's Colin Campbell sure gave GOP Rep. Mike Grimm a nice zetz here. As you may know, Grimm surrogate Guy Molinari has made increasingly absurdist claims that the federal investigation of Grimm's campaign finances is all some monster conspiracy cooked up by Chuck Schumer and Eric Holder. At an event over the weekend, Campbell repeatedly pressed Grimm on these lunatic allegations, and all Grimm would say is, "You'll have to ask Guy Molinari about that." Not, "That's a distraction and I'm focusing on the election." Certainly not a rejection of Molinari's manic ravings. Just the weakest brush-off he possibly could have come up with.

NY-21 (PDF): Here's some positive House news, courtesy of Siena's new poll of New York's redrawn 21st, a sprawling district which covers most of the northern part of the state, including the giant Adirondack Park. Even though almost 40% of the seat is new to Dem Rep. Bill Owens, he holds an imposing 49-36 lead over businessman Matt Doheny, the man who nearly beat him last cycle. (Green Party candidate Donald Hassig takes an unusually high 8.) Owens also has nifty 51-22 favorables, while Doheny's well behind at 36-31.

So, to good to be true? Well, Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney 50-45 (PDF), which exactly matches Obama's five-point margin here in 2008. That doesn't seem implausible, seeing as most polling has not really shown a statewide dropoff for Obama in New York compared to last time. It's also very similar to the generic congressional ballot (framed as "would you like to see Republicans retain control of the House?"), where respondents prefer Dem control 50-44. That suggests that Hassig, the Green, may be eating into Doheny's margin more than Owens'. Odd, perhaps, and it seems very unlikely he'll take 8% on election day, but it's not impossible to imagine some folks who hate Dems but are also disgusted with the GOP casting some sort of third-party protest vote.

Ads:

CA-24: Dem Rep. Lois Capps hammers Abel Maldonado over his $4.2 million in unpaid taxes.

CA-52: Democrat Scott Peters touts his accomplishments as San Diego city councilor and as the city's port commissioner.

CO-07: The wife of a NAVY Seal who had been gravely injured in Iraq thanks Ed Perlmutter for helping her to secure a passport and military ID in just 24 hours so that she could race to see her husband (now, it seems, thankfully recovered) at a hospital in Germany.

IA-02: Dem Rep. Bruce Braley pushes back against GOP attacks using a clip of Bill Clinton's instantly legendary DNC speech. The Secretary of Explaining Shit says: "There were no cuts to benefits at all, none. So the Democrats didn't weaken Medicare, they strengthened Medicare." Oh, and the ad's title? "Brass." Seriously, every Democrat could run this spot.

IL-12: Hi-larious. A YG Action Fund ad last week attacked Democrat Bill Enyart for having "little private sector experience." Now this new spot from Republican Jason Plummer calls him a "millionaire trial lawyer." Do you know what he actually was until June of this year? Adjutant General of the Illinois National Guard. Helps explain why they call him "Maj. Gen." Bill Enyart.

IL-13: Republican Rodney Davis attacks Democrat David Gill for supporting Obamacare and says he wants to repeal it. Meanwhile, the DCCC hits Davis with a second ad, saying he "admitted his role in a scheme that skirted campaign contribution limits—limits put in place to end Blagojevich-style pay to play politics."

NC-07: Invoking breast cancer, a woman praises Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre for "[standing] up to insurance companies, getting them to cover mammograms."

NY-27: An unknown male narrator who actually appears on screen in this ad for Dem Rep. Kathy Hochul attacks Chris Collins for preferring to have his business make products more cheaply in China, and for admitting to benefitting from China's currency manipulation.

OH-06: Democrat Charlie Wilson distances himself from Pelosi and Obama as much as possible, then takes a couple of jabs at GOP Rep. Bill Johnson for supporting the Ryan plan and "supports tax breaks for corporations that send our jobs overseas." (Wish there were a shorthand way of saying that.)

VA-05: Democrat John Douglass's first ad is your usual bio/introductory spot; seeing as he's a retired Air Force general, it's heavy on his military background.

Grab Bag:

DSCC, NRSC: Click the links for the latest IE reports from the two big Senate campaign committees. The DSCC is spending $891K in ND and OH, while the NRSC is spending $971K in those two states plus MT.

DCCC: The D-Trip also filed a big ol' IE report on Friday, totaling over $1 million, but I'm pretty certain the ad buys they reference refer to spots that we linked throughout the week last week.

House: In case you missed it this weekend, we tried something new: tipping the usual old Tossup/Lean/Likely chart over on its side, and excavating through the competitive (and not competitive) House seats layer by layer based on presidential percentages. The results underscore the huge influence of money (especially early money) in politics. (David Jarman)

Maps: Ooh, I like this! 270toWin has an interactive House map (featuring new district lines) where you can click on each seat to lodge your project, using the standard safe/likely/lean/tossup rubric. Fun stuff!

Originally posted to Daily Kos Elections on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  PPP National Poll Obama 50 Romney 44 (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, askew, James Allen, DCCyclone

    see the front page for more.

  •  Gee ya mean Chris Murphy has actually had to (4+ / 0-)

    struggle like millions of Americans.

    Sounds like finding Road maps in Al Capone's Glove-box.

    The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

    by JML9999 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:33:39 AM PDT

  •  CT-SEN: I'm getting the bad-political-skills vibe (10+ / 0-)

    You don't invoke your very demanding lifestyle, you just say you messed up, or you didn't have the money, or whatever.  Saying your lifestyle is more demanding that most people's doesn't humanize you, it just makes you like Linda McMahon except she's wealthy enough to pay competent people to handle her finances.  We know from Coakley/Brown that the only way to lose a Senate race in a heavily Democratic New England state is to be on the far other side of the skills spectrum from Bill Clinton, so if this is an early warning we need some intervention.

    Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

    by Rich in PA on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:35:41 AM PDT

    •  Yeah I'm getting a sinking feeling on this (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      thankgodforairamerica, LordMike

      McMahon's going for the jugular right now. Ugh.

      I do feel bad for Murphy's team though since they're in such a money disadvantage.

      "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

      by xsonogall on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:45:09 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  It's an interesting dynamic (3+ / 0-)

        Because they're such solidly Democratic states, you can imagine someone getting a foothold and then statewide prominence, without ever having been tested on basic electoral chops.

        Romney '12: Berlusconi without the sex and alcohol!

        by Rich in PA on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:48:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  And McMahon is battle tested (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          thankgodforairamerica, LordMike

          All the attacks on her from last cycle might feel old.

          Maybe Obama can make a quick stop to save this one?

          "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

          by xsonogall on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:52:28 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  i'm not sure she's battle tested- (0+ / 0-)

            i think the campaign still has no idea how to handle the issue of how she's made her fortune-

            here's an op ed from this spring- linda threatened to sue a paper for libel:

            Deposing McMahon: If not porn, what is it?

            from the journal inquirer:

            Criticize U.S. Senate candidate Linda McMahon and you risk getting threatened with a libel lawsuit by the wrestling entertainment company she used to run, WWE Inc. of Stamford, now run by her husband -- threatened even when the criticism of McMahon doesn't mention WWE.

            WWE says it doesn't produce pornography and its television programs have been rated "PG" -- "parental guidance" -- since 2008. The purpose of WWE's libel threats is to discourage complaints about the product of the candidate's business prior to 2008, before she began to think about using her fortune to acquire high public office and started cleaning up her act.

            Such complaints, documented by videos of WWE programs produced before 2008, destroyed McMahon's Senate candidacy in 2010 and left her at the bottom of the Republican ticket, with more people holding a negative opinion of her than a positive one.

            chris powell then pretends to question linda about the necrophilia, the abuse of the mentally disabled, the sex acts, etc. i really don't see how linda overcomes her past.

            i don't see her handling this any better now than she handled it in 2010. it's just too much, and it's too recent.

            "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

            by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:23:43 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

      •  i think this is the worst thing they have on chris (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, Amber6541, Woody

        when you have the worst things about linda, how do you choose?

        is it all the wwf/wwe preventable deaths?
        or is it her slapping her daughter in the ring?
        or is it her husband choking their daughter in the ring?
        is it linda kissing other men on wwe dvd's?
        or vince kissing other women on wwe dvd's, right in front of a drugged linda?
        is it vince making a woman crawl around and bark like a dog?

        i refuse to buy the dvd's and comb through them- this is just the stuff that pops up when you use the google

        if the worst thing linda can come up w/ is chris paying a few of his bills a little late, then i think we're going to be ok.

        "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

        by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:09:44 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Well, Charlie Cook's got it still as strong dem... (4+ / 0-)

          ...and you know, he likes to jump at every Quinn poll that shows a republican with the lead.

          Hopefully, the improvement in LV's among dems post-convention spreads to CT as well.

          GODSPEED TO THE WISCONSIN FOURTEEN!

          by LordMike on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:14:12 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  How Democratic do you expect the electorate to be? (4+ / 0-)

            If it's at least as Democratic as it was in 2010 and Murphy gets at least 45 percent of Independents, he wins easily.

            "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

            by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:02:28 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  2010 was R+6 and polls are showing D+2 (0+ / 0-)

              Not sure how different from the national results CT is...

              •  I was talking specifically about (1+ / 0-)
                Recommended by:
                thankgodforairamerica

                the Connecticut electorate. For some damn reason, the CNN 2010 pages are refusing to load for me, so I will just show an old post of mine:

                In 2008, CNN had the partisan split at 43/27/31. Back on July 31, PPP had it at 41/28/30. Let's say it's 38/32/30 this year, with Murphy getting 92 percent of Democrats, five percent of Republicans, and 45 percent of Independents. He still wins, although just barely, with 50.05.

                For what it's worth, the partisan break down in 2010 was 40/28/33. If it's like that in 2012, with Murphy's split being 92/5/45, he would get 53.05 percent. (I know this split adds up to more than 100 percent, but it's not that far off.)

                In both of this situations, Murphy loses more Democrats than he gains Republicans and loses Independents. Yet, he still wins!

                Let's also keep in mind that, according to CNN, Blumenthal lost Independents to McMahon, 48-50, as did Malloy to Foley by a wider margin, 38-59. Both won, of course.

                What if Murphy really shits the bed and loses Independents by, say, 40-60? With a 40/28/33 breakdown, this would leave McMahon with a split of 8/95/60, giving her...49.6 percent. I've checked this a few times to make sure I haven't done anything wrong, but as best I can tell, Murphy still wins--despite being destroyed by McMahon amongst Independents and still losing more Democrats than he gains Independents.

                None of this is to say Murphy has nothing to worry about. Napping can be quite the mistake, as 2010 shows. But based on what I know of him, he's a tireless campaigner who isn't plagued by scandal or corruption. He's got a nice little family. And his overall profile, (moderately?) progressive without being Alan Grayson, seems to fit the state well. He'll have to work to win this seat, and perhaps work harder than he might have thought he would have had to a few weeks ago. I have no doubt he's up for it, however, and the DSCC, not being run by idiots, won't let this race slip from its grasp by sitting on its hands.

                "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

                by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:20:45 AM PDT

                [ Parent ]

                •  i think chris will do ok w/ independents- (4+ / 0-)

                  i've been phone banking for chris, which i hate to do. i do it anyway, but ugh. at first i dreaded calling Rs and Us, but a surprising # of the people i've called are either undecided or leaning towards or definitely voting for chris.

                  here's part of a comment i wrote in another diary. i know this is just one phone call, and it's anecdotal, but it's w/ a 41 year old unaffiliated male:

                  i dialed a 41 year old male unaffiliated voter. what unaffiliated really means, i'm not sure- i tend to think it means embarassed republican. anyway, the guy has no thoughts one way or the other, says he has no idea who he's going to vote for. doesn't catch it when i say i'm a volunteer for chris murphy. he asks me who i like? who's mcmahon running against?

                  i say i'm volunteering for chris murphy. i say you seem to be undecided- is it ok if we phone back a little closer to november to see what your thoughts are? he doesn't seem to want to wrap up the phone call, and he definitely hasn't growled and hung up.

                  he says he's been watching wrestling all his life- he explains to me how the wwf became the wwe. he tells me he has no idea who chris murphy is, but he's gonna vote for him, because he thinks now mcmahon is rich all she wants is power.

                  i tell him how much she spent in 2010, how if she wins she will be the wealthiest senator, and if chris wins he will be the poorest, but that i don't even want to use the word poorest. he says he can't believe she's got $50,000,000 to spend like that and he's having garage sales.

                  i dread phonebanking- i smile while i'm on the phone doing it, but i HATE it. i'm so happy i do it though- if i weren't doing it, i never would have heard what this guy said.

                  i kind of thought that wwe fans would be loyal to mcmahon and vote for her- it never occured to me that a devoted fan and customer would say he's gonna vote for the other guy, even when he knows nothing about the other guy.

                  i think mcmahon could spend fifty BILLION dollars and it won't help her.

                  "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

                  by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:39:41 AM PDT

                  [ Parent ]

                  •  I'll admit it (2+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    thankgodforairamerica, dufffbeer

                    Although I may get a tongue-lashing from some of you, I'm a WWE fan.

                    The reason I'm responding to you with this information is that you thought WWE fans would vote for her. I think most WWE fans that's not even a consideration in there vote. If they vote for Linda, it'll be for other reasons. Everyone who drinks Coors didn't vote for Pete Coors, every Steelers fan didn't vote for Lynn Swann and there are countless other examples.

                    Just to further illustrate this point, during the Republican Convention the WWE had a tour of Australia and during that tour the WWE Champion tweeted the following: "I'm stoked to be in Sydney and nowhere near the RNC to hear how they intended to limit the rights of women and destroy the education system."

                  •  I don't understand why she chose to run as an R (0+ / 0-)

                    I really don't understand how after all the shit WWE got for its programming from conservatives, that Linda McMahon chose to run as a Republican.  I would have thought that she and Vince were left leaning based on the programming they put on.  It sure didn't mesh with conservative values.  

                    Apparently for some people money is all that matters.  Pretty pathetic.  

                •  The polls are giving CT is D+4 this year (2+ / 0-)

                  That mean Obama's result in the polls for CT is D+4 over Obama's result in my stimation for the US from the statewide polls.

                   Murphy is not as popular as Blumenthal, then it is not rare he underperforms Blumenthal by some point, but still I think this seat is not in true risk. I think it is very difficult for the Republicans to win this seat.

                  But at same time the blue team must work very very hard for keeping the fundraising disadvantage under control. All in this race is about the money. Murphy need help and will have it from the DSCC and from every organization that want a blue majority in the senate.

                  •  chris maybe is not very well known outside the 5th (1+ / 0-)
                    Recommended by:
                    abgin

                    a lot of voters barely know who their own house rep is. blumenthal was ag.

                    chris is very likeable- i can't say i know the guy, but i've met him and chatted w/ him a few times. i'm a shy person- i don't go up to people and bother them. i also don't look like i'm any one of any importance. chris gains nothing by taking the time to talk to someone like me.

                    i think he will do extremely well in the debates. linda might be likeable in an ad w/ a lot of production value behind it, and she might come across well in her dozens of mailers (which fail to mention she's the republican in the race.) her nasty self will come out in the debates. she barely talks to the press. she ducked out of a fun event at lake compounce rather than speak to the room:

                    from the bristol press
                    Lake Compounce attracts current leaders at Crocodile Club

                    Murphy, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, riffed on his Republican opponent, Linda McMahon, putting in a very brief appearance at the club.

                    “I’m kind of disappointed Linda McMahon isn’t speaking here today, but it gives me the opportunity to debut my new ad tomorrow about her 0 percent Crocodile Club attendance record,” he said, referring to her television ads criticizing his attendance record as a congressional representative.

                    Murphy said his son got a number of action figures for his fourth birthday party recently.

                    “This is true, the only action figure that my son has wanted to play with for the past two weeks is this one,” he said, holding up “a vintage 1984 Hulk Hogan.”

                    Hogan was a one-time professional wrestler in the WWE organization founded by McMahon and her husband Vince.

                    “I understand that Linda has a lot of people on her staff but I have no idea how she got my son on the payroll,” said Murphy

                    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

                    by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:31:33 AM PDT

                    [ Parent ]

                    •  Murphy has a lot of potential (1+ / 0-)
                      Recommended by:
                      thankgodforairamerica

                      He is a candidate that is building his strenght and I think he will be succesfull.

                      I think Murphy must beat this year the money that Blumenthal raises in 2010. This would be a good point for him, because 2012 is not as hard as 2010. With that I think it would be enough for assure the victory.

          •  CT is a blue state (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike
            Democrat Mazie Hirono goes with a rarely-seen message, saying that "national Republicans need just four seats to control the U.S. Senate, to stop President Obama's agenda"—hence don't vote for Linda Lingle. You can pull this off in a very blue state like Hawaii.
            Murphy should go there, too.

            NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

            by bear83 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:57:58 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, come on... (7+ / 0-)

      Even if you think that excuse is weak, who really gives a crap? It's not as if he's some sort of dead beat that has debt collectors calling him non stop. People miss payments for all sorts of reasons--I paid off one of my smaller student loans all at once because I couldn't remember to send the payment in each month, despite only having two separate payments to make--and the fact that he made up for it right away takes away the story's juice.

      Also, wasn't there something about Linda and Vince McMahon not paying taxes that someone alluded to yesterday? That type of stuff, particularly when her party's nominee has issues and particularly when she's spending tens of millions (aka, she clearly has money), is what can hurt.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:57:31 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  "I screwed up and I admit it," he told The Courant (4+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Woody, bumiputera, itskevin, stevenaxelrod

      i get what you're saying, but i don't think chris has ever said anything like his "lifestyle is more demanding that most people's."

      the quote from chris is from the link in the idary

      he's a very likeable person.  if the rent/mortgage issue is brought up in the debates, i think chris will handle it fine. and if not paying someone what they're owed is brought up, chris gets to say he paid the $ as soon as he found out he made a mistake.

      for starters, i hope someone brings up linda/wwe not paying gary hart's widow royalties. they let the poor man die, then they steal from his widow? PLEASE let's have linda accuse chris of failing to pay people what they're due.

      "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

      by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:59:36 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  It's surprising he's not campaigning well b/c... (2+ / 0-)

      ...he was recruited to challenge Nancy Johnson because he was regarded a very skilled up-and-comer and his takedown of Johnson completely validated the hype.

      So that he's now struggling and failing to push back is surprising.

      We need to keep this seat, Murphy needs to turn it on, and the DSCC needs to parachute in.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:06:56 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  NC-08 (0+ / 0-)

    escaped this?
    Amazing !

  •  Hoping Maldonado will go away (4+ / 0-)

    As Republicans go, he's been "moderate" but he's always been all about the next political office, even more so than most pols. He backroomed himself into that renta-Lt.-Governorship. It seems like he's running for something different every cycle.

    He'd no tea partier but he doesn't really appear to have an actual political philosophy other than Abel Maldonado for The Next Office.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:47:37 AM PDT

  •  Jackson and Kirk: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Samer, stevenaxelrod

    Jackson's travails are just beginning, but this melodrama could use a commercial pause.  

    Sen. Kirk's staff needs to be forthcoming -- the absence of a Senator is a grave matter for voters, and they deserve a full accounting.  He cannot stay on indefinite leave.  

    •  Kirk has been gone from the senate almost 9 months (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike

      At some point isn't there a way to force him to either show up for work or resign. The voters in IL are not being represented.

    •  I don't see that as legitimate (7+ / 0-)

      Congresswoman Giffords was absent from congress for more than a year, I didn't hear anyone here calling for her resignation.

      Tim Johnson suffered a stroke in December 2006, much as Mark Kirk did. He didn't return to work in earnest until September of 2007, 9 months later. I didn't hear anyone here calling for him to resign either.

      Senator Kirk is recovering from a serious medical condition, and as a sitting senator, he does deserve a certain amount of respect. And as a human being he deserves our well wishes.

      •  Giffords situation is completely different than (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MKSinSA

        the others. Someone tried to assassinate her.  That alone grants her more time than any of those other situations.

        As for Jackson and Kirk, if they can't return to work within a year, I think they should step down.  It hurts the people of IL to not have full representation in Congress.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 11:05:28 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Henry Gonzalez (0+ / 0-)

        and Karl Mundt also spent most of their last terms recovering from medical conditions.  Mundt was out for almost two years, I think.

        You're an odd fellow, but you do make a good steamed ham.

        by Samara Morgan Dem on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:12:18 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  nate silver's forecast for NC went from (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike

    ~56% chance of Romney winning to 69% chance of Romney winning. What happened? The national polls yesterday looked pretty good and PPP had Obama up +1 in NC. So it must be the fantasy poll that had Romney winning by 10 points on the support of 30% of the black vote. Sigh.

  •  Daily tracking number (0+ / 0-)

    Has the prez peaked, so no more attention being paid there?

    •  Everything's Being Set Up For Romney's "Comeback". (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone

      ....in the eyes of the media when the tracking polls come back to Earth, presumably at the end of the week.  Makes me uneasy to see this much favorable attention paid to the tracking polls in the immediate aftermath of Obama's convention bounce...because we all now it never lasts with the tracking polls.

      •  There are plenty regular polls to come yet (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin

        If CNN and PPP are any indication then they will be more favorable than the trackers. Just as non-tracking polls were before the conventions.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:44:24 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Just curious, if/when Obama wins, (0+ / 0-)

        will you ask for a recount just to be really, really, super duper, extra sure?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:45:02 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Fortunately, (0+ / 0-)

        the pace of the non-trackers will pick up from here. We'll probably have at least a few major media polls per week for the rest of the cycle.

    •  Obama gained a point on Gallup Tracking today. (0+ / 0-)
  •  My House is in York (5+ / 0-)

    And my business is in Hanover, PA.  (Though I spend my week is Washington.) And BELIEVE ME York is grateful to have that Harley plant.  The downtown is battling back from decades of White Flight, gang violence, and neglect and recently made the list of "Best Main Streets in America."  

    You can chalk that up to the fact the new small businesses are opening in the downtown area and cleaning the place up.  Yeah, they are "hippie businesses" as well - tea shop, custom soap shop, a revitalized farmer's market, tons of restaurants, several brew pubs, etc.  I love hanging out there on the weekends.  And it's because those Harley guys have money in their pockets to spend.  

    A few thousand jobs might seem like nothing but numbers on a spreadsheet to Romney, but those same jobs represent the heart of a community.  

    No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

    by CrazyHorse on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:12:35 AM PDT

    •  Ras has obama down to a 3 point lead (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, CrazyHorse

      I figure he will have Romney in the lead by next week. He is so predictable.

      •  I'll be honest... (0+ / 0-)

        ...I know Kos isn't sweating it, but I am legitimately worried about this voter suppression stuff in PA.  As many as 1 in 10 voters could be turned away in that state of voting day.  That means we not only have to win in PA...but win outside the "suppression margin."  

        It would be one thing if we just had to worry about winning.  We also have to worry about gaming the refs.

        York is an interesting place.  I'm not going to lie - it has a serious race problem.  York City is primarily Latinos, African Americans, and liberal whites who've moved there to take advantage of the super cheap real estate.  The suburbs is made up of the white working class and middle class...and to be honest, they're solid Romney voters.  And I mean DEAD solid.  

        No one can terrorize a whole nation, unless we are all his accomplices. - Edward R. Murrow

        by CrazyHorse on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:31:57 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  52-47 job approval (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        itskevin

        For three straight days. The man himself says the incumbent's share of the vote on election day should be similar. Yet he always finds Obama doing worse. Don't trust him.

        "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

        by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:32:52 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  Can the Dem win the York/Hburg House seat? (0+ / 0-)

      Obama got around 46% there in 2008.  A 4 point improvement takes him to 50.  Can a local Democrat ride the Obama/Casey coattails and win this open seat where Democrats aren't supposed to win?  Would the local political dynamics of the York area allow that?  It's probably just wishful thinking on my part but I would love to see the Republicans' creative gerrymandering of Harrisburg backfire for the second decade in a row.

      •  If I remember correctly (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        jncca

        Obama WAY overperformed for a Democrat. This is an ancestrally Republican area and any other Democrat (even Bob Casey) does significantly worse. It may be trending, but very slowly.

        28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

        by bumiputera on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:10:32 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  MO-Sen: Todd Akin reiterates that he's staying in (10+ / 0-)

    Says his campaign is going "incredibly well".
    http://www.politico.com/...

    28, Male, MA-08 (hometown MI-06)

    by bumiputera on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:41:46 AM PDT

  •  SUSA WA Gov: Inslee 49-44 (11+ / 0-)

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:58:22 AM PDT

    •  Leans D (9+ / 0-)

      That was quite clear given the primary result.

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:20:12 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Not long ago (4+ / 0-)

        I remember a lot of people calling it lean R.  

        •  The R's want this one really bad (0+ / 0-)

          There are young men and women in Washington who have graduated college and are raising families here who have never seen a Republican governor in their lifetimes. The Republicans really, really want this one, presumably so McKenna can do in some measure what other Republican governors around the country have tried to pull.

          Curiously I don't remember seeing any McKenna for Governor ads so far. Maybe they just don't run them on Comcast in Seattle, at least not on the networks I (infrequently) watch. There's one ad that wants you to call McKenna to say "thank you" for "standing up to the bankers" during the housing crisis, with the subtext of "Oh, and vote for Rob for Gov". Sorry, Rob, not after you signed on to the attorney generals' crusade to try to block Obamacare.

          As for Inslee's ad comment about "not all industries will succeed," I wonder if it's a reaction to another ad that's in heavy rotation that uses a lot of nice-sounding words to try to get people to support some kind of coal shipping terminal They want to build on the Washington coast. Given Inslee's book about clean energy, that wouldn't surprise me.

          You and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children's children what it was once like in America when 25% of the population was batshit insane.

          by Omir the Storyteller on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:29:21 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  McKenna is a stronger candidate than Inslee (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Christopher Walker, jncca

          But Inslee is a strong candidate in his own right, and the state is not a 50/50 balance.

          If this were to take place in some place like Ohio or Florida, I would say that the popular 2-term Attorney General would be favored over a Congressman. But, given Washington's political leanings, I would give Inslee an edge at this point, which is relieving because I was nervous when mcKenna jumped in.

  •  First Read suggests Romney is desperate (8+ / 0-)

    http://firstread.nbcnews.com/...

    Romney camp tries throwing kitchen sink at Obama, which seems to come from a position of weakness rather than strength… But Team Romney insists the race remains focused on the economy
    and conservatives are nervous
    Byron York adds, “Republican nervousness is spreading and threatens to turn into a stampede. For months, GOP strategists have told themselves that no president since World War II has been re-elected with an unemployment rate above 7.2 percent. But some are beginning to wonder: What if Obama can do it?
    •  There's little coherence to his ads and campaign (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, DCCyclone

      right now.

      The spat of ads released this past Monday, all of which appear to have a similar introduction of Mitt speaking at the convention, seem to make the economy an issue or at least one of a few major issues. Okay, fair enough. I think the ads are lame, but then, I am not the target audience.

      So he follows it up by attacking Obama for not being pro-God or something? Seriously?

      And to think OFA hasn't even opened the Ryan plan spigot!

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:06:19 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Amusement from me (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, DCCyclone

      At the grasping of the ABC/WP straw. Forget the the movement with registered voters, forget the large lead in the swing states, forget that this poll has been consistently less favorable to the president than any poll outside of the trackers, forget all those other polls showing the president with a clear lead, forget Republicans conceding their guy is behind - the poll is great news for Mitt Romney!

      "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

      by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:17:48 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  I Don't Think It's Occurred To The Romney Campaign (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      LordMike, stevenaxelrod

      .....until very recently that they could lose this.  Most of the Republican establishment seems to have made that conclusion months ago, but for the Romney operation I don't believe defeat was ever an option they considered.  I can see why they would be scrambling right now.  And does anybody else find it extremely odd that Romney is doing all this debate prep a month early?

      •  They really think it is going to be 1980 again (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike, itskevin, stevenaxelrod

        They have this view that Reagan trailed until the debates and then decisively took over the lead. So that might explain the debate prep.

        I think the 1980 comparisons are wrong for several reasons, but especially because I dont think the premise is even accurate. Reagan got a significant bounce out of his convention, and may have led at other points in the race as well.

        •  The main difference is in job approval (5+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, jj32, dufffbeer, itskevin, askew

          Obama has never been in that kind of dire position.

          "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

          by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:17:02 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Carter had a bunch of things working against him (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            jj32

            that aren't an issue today.

            Carter had a foreign policy disaster in the Iranian hostage crisis and the aborted raid on Tehran. Obama killed Osama bin Laden.

            Carter had an economy in trouble. The economy under Obama still sucks, but it sucks less than it did four years ago.

            There are more comparisons, but I think you get the point.

            You and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children's children what it was once like in America when 25% of the population was batshit insane.

            by Omir the Storyteller on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:35:07 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

        •  That totally misremembers the 1980 polls (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          jj32, stevenaxelrod

          Looking back at the more limited quantity of polls in that race, Reagan led solidly for about three months starting in late spring and especially big after the GOP convention.  Carter rebounded after the Dem convention, but was never able to reestablish a decisive or consistent lead; even in the weeks before the debate Carter was at best even and in many surveys behind.

          The idea that Reagan was on his way to losing until he turned it all around in one evening is a myth self-servingly repeated by Team Romney, which a few weeks ago was claiming that his VP pick and convention would be the panacea that would firmly put him in the lead.

          36, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

          by Mike in MD on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:20:00 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  Oh, that explains it (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      itskevin, dufffbeer, stevenaxelrod
      But Team Romney insists the race remains focused on the economy
      Which obviously is why they talk about everything but the economy.

      You and I are going to spend our sunset years telling our children's children what it was once like in America when 25% of the population was batshit insane.

      by Omir the Storyteller on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:30:44 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  IL 13 Local Reporting (0+ / 0-)
  •  Cook states the obvious: things look worse for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, DCCyclone

    Romney.  With his usual caveat that Obama should be losing.

    This is a very close race and one that still could go either way. But the odds of Romney capitalizing on this economy, and the opportunity it affords, seem lower than they were before the conventions. If Republicans and Romney supporters are growing nervous, they should be.
    http://www.nationaljournal.com/...

    “The country tried everything Romney says, and it brought the economy to the brink of collapse”

    by Paleo on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:09:05 AM PDT

    •  "This Is A Very Close Race".... (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      DCCyclone

      ....words we can expect to hear for every Presidential campaign for the foreseeable future I'm afraid.  I still say this race breaks decisively one direction or the other.  Events could break it heavily to Romney....while being a better campaign and better candidate could break it heavily towards Obama.  But I'm sure even if the winner gets 325 electoral votes, the media will still paint the race as being close.  It's their bread and butter.

      •  I disagree. Racism cost Obama est. 6 points (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        LordMike

        in 2008 so he should have been able to win by about 56-43.5 instead of 53-46.5.  This election, it'll probably cost him near 6 points again.  what is 50-44 should be 53-41 in the polls right now.  

        •  Where is the extraordinary proof (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          sacman701, DCCyclone, tietack

          for this extraordinary claim?  In 2008, Obama won voters who said race was a factor in their votes by a greater margin than he won voters who said it was not.

          Race of Candidates Was...

          Most Important Factor (2%) - O58% M41%    
          Important Factor (7%) - O52% M47%    
          Minor Factor (10%) - O54% M45%    
          Not a Factor (80%) - O51% M46%  

          White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

          by spiderdem on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:56:52 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  Social Desirability Bias (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            LordMike

            Those to whom race was a negative factor are not likely to admit it. And yes, the political science literature shows that Obama likely lost about 4-6 net points because of his race.

            22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

            by wwmiv on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:06:14 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  Which literature is that? (0+ / 0-)

              That's not a hostile question, by the way.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:16:44 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

            •  What I have seen looks pretty inconclusive. (3+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              DCCyclone, tietack, jncca

              What literature are you talking about?  It is so hard to nail down that someone is lying about a poll response and even harder to isolate the variable of race as a determining factor in the vote of someone who says it's not a factor.  I don't buy it.

              White Male, 36, New FL-14 (Castor), proud father of a 4-year-old daughter. "Who let the dogs out? Who? Who?" - Mitt Romney, MLK Day 2008.

              by spiderdem on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:22:11 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  But that's baked into the cake (3+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          LordMike, DCCyclone, Asak

          It sucks, but it's just another candidate factor. If Romney wasn't so obviously an android, he'd be doing a lot better too.

          Male, 22, -4.75/-6.92, born and raised TN-05, now WI-02, remorseless supporter of Walker's recall. Pocan for Congress and Baldwin for Senate!

          by fearlessfred14 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:15:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  I actually learned something from that column (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew, MBishop1, stevenaxelrod

      I didn't know until this morning that Romney had not been doing cable buys for his ads.

      That explains why I haven't seen any.

      I've seen Obama ads, and I've seen anti-Obama ads by the RNC and the independent expenditure groups.

      But I've never seen a Romney campaign ad while watching TV.

      We watch mostly cable in my house, our favorite broadcast network shows have been out of season for the summer.

      That little tidbit on Romney ads says something to be about their finances, another sign they weren't that great.

      Everyone gets bamboozled by the big monthly dollar amounts without realizing most of the money is RNC and Victory Fund, that only a minority of the haul goes to the Romney campaign.

      That contrasts with OFA which takes in most of the monthly haul for our side, with the DNC and Victory Fund getting much less.

      44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

      by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:20:46 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  That is an excellent point. I've never seen a (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        MKSinSA

        cable ad from Romney either. I am in MN so I've never seen a Romney ad on TV period during the general election.

        President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

        by askew on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 11:07:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

    •  That does explain a lot (0+ / 0-)

      I see Obama ads on all sorts of channels, but the only Romney ads I ever saw were during the Olympics.  I'm in California.

  •  Worried about CT-Sen (0+ / 0-)

    I know people here want to dismiss Linda McMahon - but honestly, I think this will be a nail biter until the end.  She's had plenty of time to re-define herself - and even though I know better, her ads are DAMN effective and I can see them pursuading even normally lean-Dem voters.

    I haven't seen anything from Murphy but am continually bombarded by McMahon in the form of internet ads (here, Facebook, etc.) as well as every commercial break on TV.  Nada from Murphy.

    Linda is winning this, in my opinion, and we better start fighting back soon or it's going to be too late!

    /concern

  •  Report on OFA's polling presentation given at DNC: (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, James Allen

    Via Boston Globe:

    OVERALL:

    “This election is 2004,” Simas said, recalling the close race between then-President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John F. Kerry.

    When it comes to independents, Simas sees three kinds: Democratic-leaning, 80 percent of whom support Obama; Republican-leaning, 80 percent of whom support Romney; and 5 percent to 7 percent who are truly independent.

    The article highlights 8 states - NV, CO, IA, OH/MI, VA, FL, NH. No mention of NC.

    President Obama at Madison Rally 9/28/2010 - "Change is not a spectator sport."

    by askew on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:45:07 AM PDT

    •  And not WI? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      askew

      Hmm...

      I don't know why, exactly, but I still think we pull it out in NC.

      "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

      by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:49:25 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  No PA either (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        askew

        I do think you have to take these kinds of public presentations with a grain of salt. They arent going to reveal everything.

        As DCCyclone might say, let's watch the ad spending.

        •  That's one big reason (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          askew

          if not the main reason why I am still confident about North Carolina. That, and our supposedly kickass ground game.

          "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

          by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:00:19 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

          •  I hesitate to rely too much on ground game (1+ / 0-)
            Recommended by:
            askew

            since I think it can only do so much. But with NC being close, I suppose that could be the difference.

            •  Yeah. (0+ / 0-)

              I suppose you could say it's a mix of the state's demographics combined with our ground game, building off of what we accomplished in 2008, that could put us over the top. I suspect that had we had more time in 2008 (or, alternatively, if the state hadn't changed at all since that year) there would still have been untapped potential. Not that much, of course, since Obama saw roughly a 40 percent increase from where Kerry was in 2004. But of course, the state hasn't stayed the same. It's changed, almost certainly in ways that favor us more than it favors the Republicans, i.e. those more than 200,000 non-white voters added to the rolls.

              There's just a lot to think about.

              "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

              by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:15:03 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

  •  i can't believe mcmahon just did this- (2+ / 0-)

    Republican Linda McMahon has filed an ethics complaint with the U.S. House against Democratic Rep. Chris Murphy

    The McMahon campaign accuses Murphy of using his congressional position to obtain a ‘‘prohibitive gift’’ in July 2008, a year after the foreclosure lawsuit by securing a $43,000 home equity line of credit from Webster Bank with a 4.99 percent interest rate.

    Webster says it treated Murphy the same as other customers, charging the three-term congressman an interest rate 1 percentage point higher than its most creditworthy customers.

    the woman is an idiot

    "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

    by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:46:23 AM PDT

    •  Desperation (5+ / 0-)

      Maybe her internals aren't that great right now.

      26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

      by DrPhillips on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:51:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  This doesn't seem like the move (7+ / 0-)

        of a campaign that is confident, does it?

        "The election of Mitt Romney and a supporting congress this November would be a...disaster for America. Think of the trainwreck that has been the Conservative government in Britain since 2010. And square it."--Brad DeLong

        by bjssp on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 07:54:13 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  Not confident at all (4+ / 0-)

          26, Male, CA-24 (new CA-26), DK Elections Black Caucus Chair.

          by DrPhillips on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:04:51 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  It certainly doesn't (1+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          thankgodforairamerica

          Murphy has these legitimate ethical questions coming up (in the end, I don't see them as a big deal at all).  She should just get out of the way, rather than stoke the fire.  But it does allow us to remind CT voters how rich she is.

          •  And she filed for bankruptcy in the past... (3+ / 0-)

            But you're right, Murphy should just use this attack to show how much of a regular guy he is and thus understands regular guy problems.  He can say that he has struggled to pay his mortgage in the past, and can't self fund political campaigns for $70M and counting over two years.  

            We have a greed with which we have agreed. -Eddie Vedder "Society"

            by Jacoby Jonze on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:45:56 AM PDT

            [ Parent ]

            •  he had the $- he wasn't over extended (1+ / 0-)
              Recommended by:
              dufffbeer

              from the article linked to in this diary:

              The couple had two mortgages on the home, one for $180,000 and another for $22,500, both initially from Webster Bank. He said the smaller loan was kept current, but the larger went unpaid for several payments, until its new owner, Chase Home Finance, began a foreclosure action.

              What happened, he said, was that he and his wife — they married in 2007 — each thought the other was paying the mortgage, so neither paid it. He said when they realized their mistake, they contacted the bank and paid the bill.

              "It was a total oversight. I can't defend it or justify it. It was not intentional. I'm generally pretty responsible and diligent, but people make mistakes."

              i think chris is handling this ok. linda just looks like a big, mean, jerk w/ this ethics complaint. if chris and his wife had the income to support the payments, and underwriting approved the loan, and he didn't get the best rate available, how is chris not ok?

              it's crazy how much $ mcmahon is spending AGAIN. you're right about the "and counting" part- how much money is the woman going to throw away before she's done? it's obscene.

              if she wanted to rehabilitate her image, she could have done it w/ charitable giving and good works. imagine what she could have done w/ that money.

              you know- i don't know if she ever paid back her creditors. supposedly there are no longer any court records, and she has no copies of anything. i wonder if she ever went pack and paid those people.

              "...i also also want a legally binding apology." -George Rockwell

              by thankgodforairamerica on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:08:18 AM PDT

              [ Parent ]

        •  Disagree (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          stevenaxelrod, jncca

          McMahon is (1) trying to get under Murphy's skin and induce a Murphy mistake; and (2) trying to lay groundwork for attacking Murphy's character.

          This is an offensive move.

          I do worry now about Murphy.  He is quickly becoming the big unpleasant surprise of the year.

          44, male, Indian-American, married and proud father of a girl and 2 boys, Democrat, VA-10

          by DCCyclone on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 09:23:46 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

  •  Isn't Jason Plummer's nickname (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    DrPhillips

    Duhhhh?

  •  This applies to MA-Sen, too (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    LordMike, IndianaProgressive, jncca
    Democrat Mazie Hirono goes with a rarely-seen message, saying that "national Republicans need just four seats to control the U.S. Senate, to stop President Obama's agenda"—hence don't vote for Linda Lingle. You can pull this off in a very blue state like Hawaii.
    You don't get much bluer than Massachusetts. Warren should go there - a vote for Brown is a vote for McConnell.

    .

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:02:08 AM PDT

  •  Corporate welfare for outsourcers (0+ / 0-)
    "supports tax breaks for corporations that send our jobs overseas." (Wish there were a shorthand way of saying that.)
  •  Stupid question (0+ / 0-)

    But do the media (and even some polling analysts) know the ABC News/Washington Post poll has been consistently bullish for Romney or do they just ignore the fact? I feel like we go through this every month - First Read, Halperin and others say this is a timely poll for Republicans without any context whatsoever. I would do a proper analysis of their record this cycle in comparison to the totality of polling but I don't have computer access. Maybe jj fancies the challenge?

    "What do you mean "conspiracy"? Does that mean it's someone's imaginings and that the actual polls hovered right around the result?" - petral

    by conspiracy on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 08:50:17 AM PDT

  •  Just what you'd expect from a pollster shopper (0+ / 0-)
    But check out Bachmann's weak response to the poll:

    "Of course, Jim Graves can spend as much money as he wants to get the poll numbers he wants," said campaign spokesman Chase Kroll. "The one thing that he can't buy is the support of the people of the Sixth District."
     Sounds like something you'd find in the marginalia of the Loser-Speak Trifecta, right? (h/t TonyAngelo of MN Progressive Project)

    That sounds like it came straight out of the mind of someone who looks hard for a pollster who's biased in her favor, rather than an accurate pollster.  It's been said that criticism tends to be autobiographical.  

    We're all pretty strange one way or another; some of us just hide it better. "Normal" is a dryer setting.

    by david78209 on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 12:23:15 PM PDT

  •  SUSA FL: Obama 48 Romney 44 (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    KingofSpades

    Among LVs, Nelson up 47-36

    http://www.surveyusa.com/...

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