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There was a poll recently by the Maldonado campaign showing a dead heat and an earlier poll or claim of a poll by Capps showing a big lead. I'm a little concerned that something is going wrong here.

During football, it seems like all of the local commercials are first from the Maldo campaign, and then from Capps. Oddly, Maldo's campaign ads have him claiming "Wall street bailouts cost taxpayers billions while bankers get paid millions. Now when I'm in Washington." Well, that's bullshit. TARP (the Bush bailout) made money and Maldo and his Republican buddies aren't going to do shit about the bankers making millions. He never says he's a Republican in the ad. It's a strangely 2010-style ad.

Then comes the Capps ad. The campaign has apparently "gone negative" in that it accuses Maldo of having made some tax dodges and then slams him for being the decisive vote in Sacramento for the Schwarzenegger budget saying this was a huge tax increase. (Which cost him with his party, big time.)

Why is Maldo running like a Democrat? Why is Capps trying to sound like an antitax Republican? What has the Capps campaign heard that made them feel like they needed to go negative?

I knock on doors for Congresswoman Capps. She is a reliable liberal vote and takes care of her constituency. We want to put her back in there. But reading these tea leaves makes me nervous.

Any ideas?

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (7+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    antooo, MKSinSA, SBandini, KenBee, eeff, kurt, TheCrank

    GOP: The Party of Acid rain, Abortion of the American Dream, and Amnesty for Wall Street.

    by Attorney at Arms on Mon Sep 10, 2012 at 09:16:35 PM PDT

  •  As I made clear in this thread (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    maggiejean, MKSinSA

    People don't like their taxes going up, and especially not in California which has the 6th highest tax burden among states.

    She's running against tax increases for a simple reason that those tax increases that were supported by the terminator and the Dem legislature were unpopular.

    •  Except that's simply not true. (5+ / 0-)

      It's CW-riffic, but the fact is that in 2010, voters in California cities, counties and other regions voted on 251 tax increases, fee increases, or bond measures. 151, or just over 60% of them, were passed. This includes measures which required 55% or 2/3rds super-majorities for passage.

      •  That's true, but only partial data (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        All of the supermajority tax measures are, by definition, targeted, and they pass largely because local voters are more responsible and responsive to local needs than the tax-and-funding mechanisms are statewide.

        There is a point to be made, and I speak as a longtime Calif. progressive (although recently relocated out of state), the tax system in California is massively screwed up, in that it both redistributes income in the wrong way and is injurious to doing business in the state. They also, post Prop 13, of course are massively unfair and have resulted in both the cratering of the schools and the sales-tax-heavy land development problem which continues to exacerbate the tax burdens of property owners without Prop 13 exemptions.

        The "macro" tax issues are more evident in statewide politics, and at the CD level, they're also more in play because we're talking about national policy vis a vis the state and local tax burdens.

        So lower taxes - and better government - can in fact be not just a winning issue, but a progressive one. California can do better.

        Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

        by TheCrank on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 06:00:05 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Maldonado always ran the rope-a-dope (0+ / 0-)

    He's been avoiding his Republican brand when it suits him, since the first race he ran. He picked the GOP when he thought it was going to get him to higher office, faster, and has shown all the principle and spine of the ambitious jellyfish that he is every since.

    I am so tired of this guy, he's such a weasel. It's always about the next office he's running for. I have no reason to believe he's going to be anything but the smug backroom dealer, and not a very effective one, he always has been.

    Speaking as a former constituent of his, he was always unusually glib and non-committal even for a pol. His philosophy has always been Abel Maldonado for Abel Maldonado.

    I'm not one to go to the 'career politician' slur fast, and Maldonado has been 'moderate' (equivocal and mutable in his views) but in his case I'll make an exception. There's nothing there but his own ambition, nothing. Empty suit.

    Some people are intolerant, and I CAN'T STAND people like that. -- Tom Lehrer

    by TheCrank on Tue Sep 11, 2012 at 05:55:05 AM PDT

  •  I think you're overreacting (0+ / 0-)

    If I recall correctly, both polls that came out from both campaigns were from back in July. Capps' poll showed her up by 11 points, to be expected from an internal poll, but Maldo's showed Capps up by two, which for an internal poll, ain't pretty.

    For the tax thing, it's playing to the center. If you go into the SB Capps HQ on Chapala, you can see the big map of the twenty-fourth, with the three percents on it which look something like this:

    ~36% Dem
    ~35% GOP
    ~33 DTS (Decline to state)

    A good half of those 33% in the center really do have strong political leanings (No idea why they DTS), take it from a Capps phonebanker, but the other half really are in the center. Taxes are still a kinda hot topic even in liberal california, so you can't exactly be too for them.

    As for the ads, the RCCC and Maldo campaign both launched ads. If anything, I wish the DCCC would get in here.

  •  Lois is running in a redrawn district that include (0+ / 0-)

    all the San Luis Obispo county areas that had been Kevin McCarthy's.  The North County is very, very right wing Tea Party terriroty.

    In the primary the total R votes were a little more than 50%. It was a split between Abel and Chris Mitchem, with Abel only winning by the skin of his teeth.

    With that said, the TP is not happy with Abel.  He was supposed to go to a meeting last Monday, even had been announced in the local paper.  He was a no show, canceled for "family emergency".  The group had rented a large space so North County could get to know him and now he is labeled AWOL Abel.  They are madder than a bunch of wet hens.  They didn't really trust him because he's a RINO weasel but now they are talking about not voting or trying to write in Chris.  My understanding is that with the new CA election system no write ins allowed in the General.

    Without TP support Abel is going to have a tough time.  Abel has also brought in some heavy guns.  He had Bonerher in Santa Barbara.  He had Issa at a BBQ.  He's also getting funding from AIPAC that had a fund raiser in Los Angeles for him.  Only 5 synagouges in whole district but we have a lot of Fundie Xstains who obsess over Israel.

    Karl Rove and his Crossroads GPS has had CA 24 and Lois in his sights too.  The RNC has also been running an Obamacare is evil ad.  As has Huckabee with a call to sign a petition to repeal Obamacare.

    Congressional elections have consequences!

    by Cordyc on Wed Sep 12, 2012 at 10:04:38 PM PDT

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