Skip to main content

If the election were held now President Obama's chances of victory would be 91.6 percent according to Nate Silver's model.

Further, his estimated margin in the electoral college would be 319 to 219. Both the margin of victory and the percentage chance of victory are all-time highs for Nate's "Nowcast."

The longer range forecast is also good, but with 50+ days to go, and chances for Mitt Romney to pull his head out improve his position reduce Obama's winning odds to 80.8 percent and an electoral total of 315.4.

The improvement in tonight's nowcast is likely due to:

- Obama's Gallup lead growing to +7  (50 for O, 43 for R)
- A Fox poll with Obama +5 (48 for O, 43 for R)
- A blowout New Mexico poll  (Obama +11)

Also tonight, new polls in Michigan with great news. EPIC-MRA says Obama is up ten, 47 to 37.  Further, Debbie Stabenow is up 11 over Pete Hoekstra.

Good polling day!

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

grytpype, SME in Seattle, Louise, GainesT1958, JekyllnHyde, Mimikatz, DeminNewJ, chrississippi, Chi, True North, grollen, mwm341, askew, glitterscale, Gooserock, Pandora, alkatt, Emerson, alicia, TheGreatLeapForward, donna in evanston, Andrew C White, ChicDemago, SanJoseLady, hyperstation, celdd, polecat, exNYinTX, Creosote, dweb8231, Paulie200, davechen, DickCheneyBeforeHeDicksYou, cyberKosFan, whenwego, teresahill, ellefarr, Bionic, ivote2004, Miss Blue, jennifree2bme, itskevin, Cedwyn, antirove, litigatormom, revsue, jdmorg, Redfire, hangingchad, raster44, riverlover, KellyB, WisVoter, KayCeSF, Vicky, marvyt, Josiah Bartlett, sebastianguy99, sawgrass727, Gowrie Gal, davidkc, 3goldens, Ckntfld, blueyedace2, revbludge, SherwoodB, Alice Venturi, Dobber, teresab, Gary Norton, Beetwasher, majcmb1, aaraujo, Overseas, Ice Blue, Little Lulu, markdd, jane123, Savvy813, Rogneid, peacestpete, Jim R, begone, reddbierd, elliott, MeMeMeMeMe, profundo, HoundDog, koNko, kestrel9000, ccmask, blueoasis, global citizen, twigg, real world chick, middleagedhousewife, CA Nana, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, BB10, means are the ends, nannyboz, Aaa T Tudeattack, The Knute, Msanger, bear83, dwakeman, Cronesense, Habitat Vic, Loudoun County Dem, tgypsy, camlbacker, deepeco, joedemocrat, newpioneer, rantsposition, Wreck Smurfy, Rumarhazzit, christianlsv, uciguy30, vet, TomP, chicago minx, JDWolverton, Blue Boy Red State, gundyj, mconvente, TX Freethinker, ChocolateChris, wyvern, HappyinNM, ScottyUrb, mamamedusa, Sixty Something, Foundmyvoice, Involuntary Exile, bythesea, elwior, filby, Akonitum, jamess, Greasy Grant, TomFromNJ, rssrai, tofumagoo, royce, pamelabrown, RandomNonviolence, vernonbc, alnep, palantir, Ellinorianne, oldliberal, Leftleaner, prettygirlxoxoxo, rubyclaire, litoralis, bobatkinson, fearisthemindkiller, CamillesDad1, DefendOurConstitution, Remediator, petral, elziax, zizi, MKSinSA, Alise, johnosahon, kevinpdx, stevenwag, 57andFemale, maxzj05, PoliticalJunkessa, haremoor, Tortmaster, northernlights, astral66, orangeuglad, Words In Action, Clyde the Cat, BlueOak, Railfan, brentbent, jbjowe, mamamorgaine, The Distillery, marabout40, Laurilei, NJpeach, Susan Grigsby, stunzeed, Orlaine, on board 47, Proud Mom and Grandma, NomadDem, 2questions, ATFILLINOIS, womankind, apip0115, rja, nirbama, ericlewis0, Floande, Dems in 08, slice, Quantumlogic, Onomastic, Jane Lew, Maximilien Robespierre, Byblis, ozsea1, Powell, EcosseNJ, Intheknow, asterkitty, kiwiheart, rg611, lillyspad, California06, FightingRegistrar, AnotherAmericanLie, jakewaters, lupinella, Alice Olson, Ebby, mrsgoo, PorridgeGun, zukesgirl64, Cinnamon Rollover, thomask, dle2GA, BarackStarObama, smoothnmellow, Grandma Susie, antooo, Calvino Partigiani, MinistryOfTruth, Imhotepsings, Merry Light, VTCC73, FisherOfRolando, rscopes, joanbrooker, CoyoteMarti, ParkRanger, Davui, johnnr2, BlueDragon, YaNevaNo, Only Needs a Beat, weatherdude, Liberal Granny, Cornbread Maxi, TheLizardKing, Siri, We Won, nellgwen, rukidingme, Farkletoo, 2thanks, Trotskyrepublican, peachcreek, redstella, Vote4Obamain2012, Glen The Plumber, Marjmar, Portlaw, nomandates, countwebb, Herodotus Prime, Eric Twocents, broths, Icicle68, Smoh, ET3117, ChristineM, jhinnash

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site