If the election were held now President Obama's chances of victory would be 91.6 percent according to Nate Silver's model.
Further, his estimated margin in the electoral college would be 319 to 219. Both the margin of victory and the percentage chance of victory are all-time highs for Nate's "Nowcast."
The longer range forecast is also good, but with 50+ days to go, and chances for Mitt Romney to
pull his head out improve his position reduce Obama's winning odds to 80.8 percent and an electoral total of 315.4.
The improvement in tonight's nowcast is likely due to:
- Obama's Gallup lead growing to +7 (50 for O, 43 for R)
- A Fox poll with Obama +5 (48 for O, 43 for R)
- A blowout New Mexico poll (Obama +11)
Good polling day!