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Breaking: President Obama leads Mitt Romney in Ohio, Florida, and Virginia OUTSIDE the margin of error, and at virtually 50 percent in all three states.

Diary will be continuously updated as I peer through the crosstabs.

The Ohio polling confirms both the Obama and Romney team's internal numbers which give Obama a high single-digit lead.

The Florida poll is one of the largest leads for Obama this year, and Obama is poised to launch a knockout blow with a huge ad buy in the Miami market.

The Virginia poll only polled Obama and Romney (Goode was not included).

3:45 PM PT: For Ohio: 979 LV, 3.1% MOE

For Florida: 980 LV, 3.1% MOE

For Virginia: 996 LV, 3.1% MOE


3:51 PM PT: Looking at the first crosstab regarding support, in Ohio, only 3% of voters might vote differently or are unsure. In Florida, only 3% of voters might vote differently or are unsure. In Virginia, only 4% of voters might vote differently or are unsure. This indicates that the cake is pretty much baked in all three states and Romney's goose could be cooked, as there are almost zero undecided voters.

3:55 PM PT: Job approval numbers:

Ohio: Obama 50/45 approval (+5)
Florida: Obama 49/46 approval (+3)
Virginia: Obama 49/45 approval (+4)

Senate numbers:

Ohio: Sherrod Brown 49, Josh Mandel 42 (Brown +7)
Florida: Bill Nelson 51, Connie Mack 37 (Nelson +14)
Virginia: Tim Kaine 46, George Allen 46 (Tied)

4:02 PM PT: Age Breakdown:

Ohio: 11/24/32/33 (18-29/30-44/45-59/60+)
Florida: 14/21/29/37
Virginia: 13/27/30/30

Racial breakdown:

Ohio: 84% white, 12% black, 2% Hispanic, 2% other
Florida: 67% white, 13% black, 17% Hispanic, 3% other
Virginia: 71% white, 18% black, 6% Hispanic, 5% other

Party ID breakdown:

Ohio: 38D, 28R, 32I
Florida: 35D, 33R, 30I
Virginia: 30D, 24R, 44I

4:05 PM PT: Romney favorability:

Ohio: 40/50 disapproval (-10)
Florida: 47/45 approval (+2)
Virginia: 46/45 approval (+1)

Full link to the pdfs here:

http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...
http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/...

4:29 PM PT: Polling dates: 9/9 to 9/11

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