Skip to main content

Mitt Romney listens to questions in Jacksonville, FL
Tis the beginning of the end, Mitt.
If you look into the latest battleground poll from NBC, a few things stand out:

1. The undecideds are few and Barack Obama has a structural lead.

In Virginia, Obama leads 49 to 44, but only 5 are undecided. Furthermore, only 2% say they might switch before election day. That means even if Romney swept all the undecided vote, he'd still only have a tie. He's got a structural problem in Virginia.

In Florida, same story: Obama leads 49 to 44, but only 5 are undecided. He could win all of them and still be no closer to victory. Same thing, only 2% say they might flip before election day. He's got a structural problem in Florida.

In Ohio, the news is devastating: Obama leads 50 to 44, and once again only 5 are undecided. If Romney swept all the remaining undecideds, he's still going to lose Ohio. Worse, only 2% might flip.

What this means is that Romney has to start winning over committed Obama voters if he wants to win. An almost impossible feat considering the kind of campaign he has to run to get his white vote number up into the 60 to 65 percent range. What is the structural problem of which I speak? Demographics. The Republican Party is beginning to run into the demographic wall that has been foretold for years.

2. First Read notes a key point about these three states:

These states – all of which Obama carried in 2008 but which George W. Bush won in 2004 – represent three of the most crucial battlegrounds in the 2012 presidential election. And according to NBC’s electoral map, Romney likely needs to capture at least two of these states, if not all three, to secure the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the presidency.

By comparison, Obama can reach 270 by winning just one or two of these battlegrounds  – on top of the other states already considered to be in his column.

In other words, one of Romney's must win states is already gone, namely Ohio. This means Romney has to win Virginia and Florida together. The only way he can do that is by convincing some Obama voters to flip.

Meanwhile, all President Obama has to do is win Ohio and any other battleground state out there. He's in a commanding position with multiple strategic and tactical maneuvers at his disposal.

3. The poll was broad, surveying just under 1000 likely voters in each state and has a very low margin of error at 2.7%. Obama is ahead beyond the margin of error in every state.

4. The poll was conducted on the 9th, 10th, and 11th. Which means it full absorbed the Democratic Convention and Friday, September 7th jobs number. Notably, the poll was conducted before the Libya Incident.

That's the nail in the coffin for Romney. If the jobs numbers can't change the trajectory for him, his bet that a bad economy would sink Obama looks like a flimsy premise.

There are some other nuggets noting that the country still feels the country is on the wrong track, but there has been some improvement. Also, President Obama's job approval is up into positive territory and Mitt Romney has improved his favorability somewhat. When you take those factors together, it seems the voters in the battlegrounds have come to a conclusion: Mitt Romney is unfit to be president. America is sticking with President Obama.

Originally posted to Triple-B in the Building on Thu Sep 13, 2012 at 05:53 PM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

kos, Meteor Blades, grytpype, deminva, GainesT1958, Angie in WA State, Illinois Democrat, Bill in Portland Maine, hester, lapin, grollen, copymark, teacherken, slinkerwink, glitterscale, lilchas, daninoah, abarefootboy, kainah, MouseThatRoared, donna in evanston, Wintermute, billlaurelMD, CleverNickName, hyperstation, Stein, etatauri, Richard Cranium, expatjourno, Creosote, davelf2, dweb8231, missLotus, cyberKosFan, teresahill, ask, CoolOnion, gayntom, mkfarkus, Voter123, litigatormom, RLF, tomephil, VexingEyes, psnyder, TexDem, Eyesbright, brainwave, wdrath, Jujuree, DSC on the Plateau, defluxion10, betson08, papercut, RebeccaG, riverlover, bwintx, Diana in NoVa, Sembtex, Vicky, tomjones, Wife of Bath, lyvwyr101, Sassy, sebastianguy99, roxy317, Ohkwai, davidkc, Dirk McQuigley, vcmvo2, maybeeso in michigan, bloomer 101, historys mysteries, radarlady, DianeNYS, Ckntfld, jfdunphy, democracy inaction, demimondian, kitchen sink think tank, citizenx, basquebob, Dobber, Navy Vet Terp, Beetwasher, vulcangrrl, majcmb1, Pam from Calif, where4art, Inland, Phil S 33, LucyandByron, Savvy813, Shotput8, peacestpete, Ekaterin, fhcec, begone, Reality Bites Back, Mother Mags, elliott, 417els, edwardssl, tobendaro, Russgirl, HoundDog, koNko, kestrel9000, ruleoflaw, ccmask, deha, pengiep, blueoasis, TalkieToaster, wild hair, JVolvo, CF Perez, totallynext, middleagedhousewife, CA Nana, Clive all hat no horse Rodeo, BB10, Texdude50, blueoregon, nannyboz, SD Goat, Friend of the court, ipsos, blueintheface, Quicklund, bear83, dpinzow, Cronesense, Habitat Vic, LSophia, Dartagnan, edsbrooklyn, noofsh, flumptytail, deepeco, suejazz, SeaTurtle, jhop7, Wreck Smurfy, Rumarhazzit, uciguy30, GeorgeXVIII, leonard145b, Puffin, JML9999, billso, TomP, Empower Ink, chicago minx, rmonroe, Mighty Ike, rogerdaddy, olo, TX Freethinker, BobBlueMass, JaxDem, HappyinNM, Cordwainer, OleHippieChick, mamamedusa, Youffraita, bythesea, elwior, Sharon Wraight, Akonitum, tofumagoo, royce, smartdemmg, icebergslim, bluesheep, vernonbc, Jeff Y, catly, alnep, Gemina13, petulans, get the red out, statsone, maxcat06, oldliberal, clent, MrsTarquinBiscuitbarrel, prettygirlxoxoxo, Bule Betawi, Rhysling, BlueBeaumontBoyz, litoralis, greengemini, Nebraskablue, janmtairy, CamillesDad1, fToRrEeEsSt, DefendOurConstitution, followyourbliss, zizi, politicalceci, mksutherland, papahaha, Denise Oliver Velez, stevenwag, sfarkash, jimmylutherking, astral66, spicecakes69, Livvy5, Railfan, bronxcharlie, smileycreek, coppercelt, marabout40, FogCityJohn, flitedocnm, NJpeach, eXtina, Tea and Strumpets, Interceptor7, stunzeed, Orlaine, klompendanser, VickiL, 2questions, womankind, Eddie L, gulfgal98, kacemo, laserhaas, sharonsz, nickrud, rja, elengul, ericlewis0, science nerd, Oh Mary Oh, Dems in 08, ZedMont, wwjjd, dwayne, stevenaxelrod, Actbriniel, slice, Eric0125, Onomastic, Maximilien Robespierre, kerflooey, surfermom, mama jo, Dretutz, coquiero, Mico0109, ban nock, bgblcklab1, sostos, Buckeye Nation, hooktool, Mr MadAsHell, La Gitane, Olympia, Zutroy, asterkitty, itzik shpitzik, mikejay611, rg611, Jed Lewison, mrsgoo, PorridgeGun, Hohenzollern, sethtriggs, Cinnamon Rollover, Jasonhouse, thomask, Wheever, smoothnmellow, SueM1121, MRA NY, IB JOHN, createpeace, loblolly, Fire bad tree pretty, lilkymbo, peregrine kate, chira2, Imhotepsings, VTCC73, Caddis Fly, disconnect the dots, FisherOfRolando, jolux, Qantumreflection, SteelerGrrl, Catlady62, LaurenMonica, DRo, googie, Chitown Kev, CoyoteMarti, Auriandra, Davui, wolf advocate, Only Needs a Beat, Liberal Granny, KiB, Heart n Mind, isabelle hayes, cwsmoke, Siri, a2nite, AreDeutz, 2thanks, Trotskyrepublican, evilhoodedcrow, Fish in Illinois, BusyinCA, dianamherrera, Galtisalie, Buckeye54, BlackNGreen, redstella, oldpotsmuggler, George3, Marjmar, Robynhood too, CalBearMom, Sue B, JayRaye, dbeerthuis, howabout, Icicle68, Smoh, Hey338Too, Jason Hackman, WFBMM

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site