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Nate Silver wrote on his blog :


And it is mildly interesting that Mr. Obama’s bounce seems to have been larger in some of the higher-profile surveys (like those from Marist, Gallup, and CNN) that use a more thorough methodology.

He is specifically there referring to the recent polls coming out from Marist regarding Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, indicating he finds those polls as the most credible. And both Rmoney's team and President Obama's campaign appear to view President Obama as ahead by almost ten points in Ohio. BBB posted that part of the difficulty for willard is that he now has to win voters who prefer President Obama. In two of those states, President Obama is already at 49%, has a 5 point lead, and the undecideds are only 5 percent of the electorate. Those two states are Florida and Virginia. In Ohio, Marist found President Obama up 50 to 44 and with only 5% undecided. This makes Ohio virtually out of the reach of willard. One in eight jobs in Ohio is related to the auto industry. Ohio has a better unemployment rate than most of the country. Manufacturing jobs are coming back and that helps Ohio and President Obama's campaign in Ohio. Governor Kasich is unpopular in Ohio and is, at most, an unenthusiastic voter for rmoney. SB5, the legislation attacking collective bargaining in Ohio, was backed by both rmoney and Kasich, but lost by 20 points, 60% to 40%.

Regarding Florida, a couple of points are instructive. President Obama is up 9 on the issue of Medicare. That is very helpful in Florida. Former President Clinton and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, whom recent polling shows is popular (looking at a future race as a Democratic US Senator from Florida), are campaigning in Florida.

Intrade now has President Obama a 2 to 1 favorite to win reelection.
It also shows Senator McCaskill as a 5 to 3 favorite to win reelection.
It is difficult to imagine a path for Republicans to control the US Senate if they do not win in Missouri. After all, they will not win Connecticut nor Massachusetts nor Maine.

I think that willard's numbers may move a little more south after his ready fire aim fiasco regarding Libya.

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