Skip to main content

With less than two months left in the campaign, it's crunch time. Brownley's latest ad draws clear contrasts between her and Strickland on women's issues, as do mailers. Mailers worked very effectively in helping Brownley edge out Linda Parks in the open primary, so I think they can be effective in getting her message out in the general. The NRCC is running ads here now (mostly the same, tired old scare type of ad).

Brownley's ad against Strickland:
NRCC ads:

The gender gap will play a big role here and Brownley running up numbers among women will be critical, particularly in East County, where there are a lot of moderates. That said, let's take a closer look at what the path to a win looks like.

Strickland did lose this district running for Controller in 2010, mainly because Simi Valley is not in the district and the fact that his margin in Thousand Oaks wasn't as wide as one he would have gotten out of Simi Valley. Let's look at the numbers.

Chiang 45.93%
Strickland 54.07%
And it was the same story for his 2008 Senate race in SD-19                                  
Jackson 45.71%
Strickland 54.29%

2008 was of course a good Democratic year, but 2010 was not. Chiang is a good candidate and the race was a good ways down ballot, but that was a weak number for Strickland to turn in as a local. In 2006 when he ran for Controller, he did win 60% in Thousand Oaks, but that was only with Arnold winning heavily at the top of the ballot. Thousand Oaks has always been less conservative than Simi Valley, it gave Obama 51% of the vote, while Simi Valley gave McCain 52%. Strickland has won close races before without Simi Valley (1998 and 2000 for Assembly), but that Assembly district includes less Democratic territory than the new CA-26 and slightly more Republican leaning then. CA-26 has only a very small portion of Simi Valley in it and that portion is more moderate.

What Brownley has on her side is Oxnard and Ventura, which make up a good share of the vote. I have the turnout scenario here that show what Brownley needs in each city in the county to win. (Westlake Village and the portions of Simi Valley are so small, I just incorporated the numbers in with Thousand Oaks.)

Cities Distribution Brownley Strickland
Camarillo 11.73% 38.00% 62.00%
Fillmore 1.67% 59.00% 41.00%
Moorpark 5.63% 37.00% 63.00%
Ojai 1.45% 60.00% 40.00%
Oxnard 17.30% 64.00% 36.00%
Port Hueneme 2.27% 54.00% 46.00%
San Buenaventura 18.31% 56.00% 44.00%
Santa Paula 3.00% 58.00% 42.00%
Thousand Oaks 23.02% 39.00% 61.00%
Unincorporated area of Ventura County 15.62% 41.00% 59.00%
Totals 100.00% 50.11% 49.89%

The tightest of margins, but it shows that with very high floors in the strongholds, Brownley has solid ground to build from. The other good news is that Strickland can't solely rely on East County to pull him through. Brownley doesn't need to post performance far above the Democratic floor in most cities to pull off a narrow win, but of course, she does have room to do a little better than these benchmarks. The way I came up with these benchmarks was comparing neutral or Republican leaning year percentages in this district.

2000 Presidential

Gore 50.84%
Bush 49.16%
2002 Gubernatorial                                  
Davis 49.57%
Simon 50.43%
2004 Presidential                                  
Kerry 50.02%
Bush 49.98%
2010 Gubernatorial                                  
Brown 45.99%
Whitman 46.88%
2010 Senate                                  
Boxer 45.2%
Fiorina 47.1%
Then, there is the 2004-2010 aggregate of two party congressional performance in CA-26, although this skews a bit for incumbency on both sides, since the numbers include what Gallegly and Capps got in portions of their old districts which now make up the new CA-26.                                                                  
2004 55-45 R
2006 52-47 R
2008 51-48 D
2010 52-47 R
Again, those numbers are skewed by incumbency, but the numbers overall show that Democrats have a high floor. That's the sort of floor that is the perfect starting place. It will be a very competitive race, but I think our chances are very good.

Next time, I'll take a look at next door CA-24.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site