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The composite projection:

The maps out of which the composite was built are over the fold.

A morning edition of this overview is posted daily at the 2012 Electoral College Calculator blog.

Good evening!

Quite a slow day today, with only Electoral-Vote.com providing an update. So...

To the maps!

electoral-vote.com

2012 Electoral College Projection - electoral-vote.com 2012-09-16

Election Projection

2012 Electoral College Projection - Election Projection 2012-09-16

FiveThirtyEight

2012 Electoral College Projection - FiveThirtyEight 2012-09-16

FrontloadingHQ

2012 Electoral College Projection - FrontloadingHQ 2012-09-16

Princeton Election Consortium

2012 Electoral College Projection - Princeton Election Consortium 2012-09-16

Real Clear Politics

2012 Electoral College Projection - RealClearPolitics 2012-09-16

Maps created using 2012 Electoral College Calculator technology.

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Comment Preferences

  •  wOO hOO! (3+ / 0-)

    Looks good so far....

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 09:46:17 PM PDT

  •  Good stuff, it fits with my prediction 8 months ag (3+ / 0-)

    I threw out a 332 EV projection in a list serve I've run for the last seven years, taking it over from the friend who started it with me in the late 90s. He died.

    The list was at one time ferociously political, but we got a couple of right-wingers in through personal connections and it went to hell. But I throw those things at them anyway.

    As I said then, long before the Republicans had actually started their bloodbath, I had nothing much to base it on. I just looked at the map and thought about what I thought Obama could carry.

    I thought there was chance it could drop to near 300 or go up closer to 350 with luck. I didn't think the republicans could put up a decent candidate out of the bunch of lakers. I don't see any reason to change my opinion, but it's nice to see some validation that gets better.

  •  anyone who factors in Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    CuriousBoston

    given its clear Republican tilt winds up with problematic results, hence RCP having so many as total battlegrounds

    could they become that, with a shift in national trends"  Yes.

    But remember, nationally at least (I have not looked at state by state) Rasmussen uses a model with +several points of Republicans over Dems.  There is no presidential election for which we have data where that has happened, and the only tie was 2004.  That means Rasmussen has a tilt nationally (and probably statewide as well) several points in the Republican favor.  Translate that to individual states and some listed as battlegrounds become at least lean Dem.

    I might also note that I think PPP is understating Obama's performance in some state polls by having a model where D identification is down several points from 2008.  That may have been true earlier in the year but my sense is that sense the conventions and then Romney's foot in mouth over the Middle east there is no longer a significant enthusiasm gap.  And PPP's own data shows many more Dems voting FOR Obama whereas for Romney it is people voting AGAINST Obama.  

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 04:51:29 AM PDT

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