Skip to main content

The composite projection:

The maps out of which the composite was built are over the fold.

A morning edition of this overview is posted daily at the 2012 Electoral College Calculator blog.

Good evening!

Quite a slow day today, with only providing an update. So...

To the maps!

2012 Electoral College Projection - 2012-09-16

Election Projection

2012 Electoral College Projection - Election Projection 2012-09-16


2012 Electoral College Projection - FiveThirtyEight 2012-09-16


2012 Electoral College Projection - FrontloadingHQ 2012-09-16

Princeton Election Consortium

2012 Electoral College Projection - Princeton Election Consortium 2012-09-16

Real Clear Politics

2012 Electoral College Projection - RealClearPolitics 2012-09-16

Maps created using 2012 Electoral College Calculator technology.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  wOO hOO! (3+ / 0-)

    Looks good so far....

    -4.75, -5.33 Cheney 10/05/04: "I have not suggested there is a connection between Iraq and 9/11."

    by sunbro on Sun Sep 16, 2012 at 09:46:17 PM PDT

  •  Good stuff, it fits with my prediction 8 months ag (3+ / 0-)

    I threw out a 332 EV projection in a list serve I've run for the last seven years, taking it over from the friend who started it with me in the late 90s. He died.

    The list was at one time ferociously political, but we got a couple of right-wingers in through personal connections and it went to hell. But I throw those things at them anyway.

    As I said then, long before the Republicans had actually started their bloodbath, I had nothing much to base it on. I just looked at the map and thought about what I thought Obama could carry.

    I thought there was chance it could drop to near 300 or go up closer to 350 with luck. I didn't think the republicans could put up a decent candidate out of the bunch of lakers. I don't see any reason to change my opinion, but it's nice to see some validation that gets better.

  •  anyone who factors in Rasmussen (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    given its clear Republican tilt winds up with problematic results, hence RCP having so many as total battlegrounds

    could they become that, with a shift in national trends"  Yes.

    But remember, nationally at least (I have not looked at state by state) Rasmussen uses a model with +several points of Republicans over Dems.  There is no presidential election for which we have data where that has happened, and the only tie was 2004.  That means Rasmussen has a tilt nationally (and probably statewide as well) several points in the Republican favor.  Translate that to individual states and some listed as battlegrounds become at least lean Dem.

    I might also note that I think PPP is understating Obama's performance in some state polls by having a model where D identification is down several points from 2008.  That may have been true earlier in the year but my sense is that sense the conventions and then Romney's foot in mouth over the Middle east there is no longer a significant enthusiasm gap.  And PPP's own data shows many more Dems voting FOR Obama whereas for Romney it is people voting AGAINST Obama.  

    "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

    by teacherken on Mon Sep 17, 2012 at 04:51:29 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site