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So PPP has just confirmed that Elizabeth Warren's (D) breath taking speech at the Democratic National Convention has greatly rebound in the polls:
Things have been going Elizabeth Warren's way in the Massachusetts Senate race over the last month. She's gained 7 points and now leads Scott Brown 48-46 after trailing him by a 49-44 margin on our last poll. - Public Polling Policy (D), 9/16/12
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...
Just a reminder that poll conducted for the Massachusetts Republican has Warren up by six points over incumbent tea party backed Senator Scott Brown (R) came out this morning:
http://www.masslive.com/...
If you have watched or even read her speech at the DNC, you'd understand why she has a huge bounce. She was absolutely wonderful. You can watch her here:
http://www.youtube.com/...
Now there are some very important highlights from this morning's poll that you should check out:
http://www.dailykos.com/...
But lets get to the highlights of the PPP poll released tonight:
Warren's gaining because Democratic voters are coming back into the fold. Last month she led only 73-20 with Democrats. Now she's up 81-13. That explains basically the entire difference between the two polls. There are plenty of Democrats who like Scott Brown- 29% approve of him- but fewer are now willing to vote for him. That's probably because of another finding on our poll- 53% of voters want Democrats to have control of the Senate compared to only 36% who want Republicans in charge. More and more Democrats who may like Brown are shifting to Warren because they don't like the prospect of a GOP controlled Senate.
Warren's image has seen some improvement in the last month. She has a +8 net favorability at 51/43, up 5 points from last month when she was at 46/43. That reverses the trend of her numbers falling in every poll we'd done this year up until now. Again the difference is Democrats becoming more enthusiastic about her. She's gone from a 75/16 spread with them last month now up to an 81/12 one.
Democrats are coming coming home. They know that voting for Warren is the right thing to do to save the Senate from GOP control and they are liking Warren a lot more these days. Now why is this poll closer than the one this morning? This part might explain why:
Brown's approval numbers have actually improved since our poll last month. 55% of voters approve of him to 34% who disapprove. He continues to dominate the race with independents, leading 56-35, and he's taking 94% of the Republican vote. 56% of voters think he's ideologically 'about right' to only 29% who think he's too conservative. And 49% consider him to be more an 'independent voice for Massachusetts' than the 40% who think he's more a 'partisan voice for the national Republican Party.' Brown continues to be one of the more popular Senators in the country and he's doing what he needs to do in this campaign, but his party label may end up being more than he can overcome.
So Scott Brown continues to lead with independent voters. There's time for Warren to get more of those Independent voters because according to the MA Republican from this morning:
"Twenty-one percent of independent voters who expressed a preference said they might change their minds, compared to 15 percent of Democrats and 9 percent of Republicans," Tim Vercellotti (director of the Polling Institute at Western New England University) said. "It’s clear that a sizable number of independent voters are still up for grabs in this race."
But PPP concludes it's poll on a very promising note:
This race has one of the most monumental gender gaps we've seen in any contest this year, with Warren up 56-36 with women but down 55-39 with men. Although there aren't a lot of undecided voters left they seem more likely to break toward Warren than Brown- they're supporting Barack Obama for President by a 76-2 margin- and at the end of the day most of those folks will probably vote the same party for both offices. This race continues to be a toss up but after a good summer for Brown the momentum is heading back in Warren's direction.
So there you have it folks. Warren is back and she will win. Scott Brown is shitting his pants right now. We all have to help Warren out in the grassroots efforts of high voter turn out and fundraising because Wall Street and the Koch Brothers are going to throw a lot of money into this race to defeat Elizabeth Warren. I think you all know what to do. Let's help Warren defeat Brown, GOP obstruction, Karl Rove, the Koch Brothers, Americans For Prosperity, the Tea Party and American Crossroads. Donate to her campaign:
https://secure.actblue.com/...