Week 5 of the intrading the Senate.
The goal of this is to follow the changes in the intrade odds as the election comes closer and watch the changes with developments in the campaign
Methodology: I'm only interested in watching the races that are competitive. Many of the races really have no market because one candidate is a prohibitive favorite. I'm also not going to be looking at any race where the normalized probability of one candidate winning is > 80%. Normalized probability means that I'll be the 2 highest candidates and treating them like their probabilities add to 100%.
Ratings changes this week: The only ratings change was Michigan. This one has crossed the 80% barrier -- Intrade sees a greater than 80% chance that Stabenow(D) will defeat Hoekstra (R). If this remains above 80% for next week it will be removed from the board.
Arizona: Flake (R) leads Carmona (D) leads 79.9 - 20.1. A big move from Flake this week. Carmona needs to make a move or this one could come off the board . Republican hold
Connecticut: Murphy(D) leads McMahon (R) 64.5 - 35.5. This one has settled into a rut. Murphy can't quite seem to put it away. Democratic Hold
Florida: Bill Nelson (D) leads Connie Mack IV (R) 66.5 - 35.7. After several weeks of no change, Nelson picked up about 6 points this week. Democratic Hold
Indiana: Mourdock (R) leads Donnelly (D) 63.2 - 36.8. Donnelly picks up a few points this week, but still needs more. Republican Hold
Massachusetts: Brown(R) leads Warren (D) 54.9 - 45.1. Warren picks up about 1 point. This has been an interesting one to watch since it has good volume on a daily basis. Warren got a good convention bounce, but needs to continue to build. Republican Hold
Michigan: Stabenow(D) leads Hoekstra (R) 85.9 - 14.1. Stabenow has crossed the 80% line. If this doesn't change by next week, This race moves off the board. Democratic Hold
Missouri: McCaskill (D) leads Akin (R) 62.4 - 37.6. This race will stay in a rut until after the Sept 25 deadline for Akin to withdraw. Democratic Hold
Montana: Rehlberg(R) leads Tester(D) 56.5 - 43.5. Tester picks up about 10 points this week. He seems to be moving. Republican Pickup
Nevada: Heller(R) leads Berkley(D) 65.0 - 35.0. No change this week, Heller still strong. Republican Hold
North Dakota: Berg(R) leads Heitkamp(D) 68.2 - 31.8. Berg regains ground lost last week. Republican Pickup
Ohio: Brown(D) leads Mandel(R) 60.2 - 39.8. Another race that seems stuck in place. Democratic Hold
Virginia: Allen(R) leads Kaine(D) 54.0 - 46.0. Kaine seems to have taken control of this race. Democratic hold
Wisconsin: Thompson(R) leads Baldwin(D) 78.4 - 21.6. Thompson still holding a good lead. Baldwin needs to shake up the race. Republican Pickup
Off the board. Intrade predicts at least an 80% chance of the following results:
California (D Hold)
Delaware (D Hold)
Hawaii (D Hold)
Maine (I Pickup from R)
Maryland (D Hold)
Minnesota (D Hold)
Mississippi (R Hold)
Nebraska (R Pickup)
New Jersey (D Hold)
New Mexico (D Hold)
New York (D Hold)
Pennsylvania (D Hold)
Rhode Island (D Hold)
Tennessee (R Hold)
Texas (R Hold)
Utah (R Hold)
Vermont (I Hold)
Washington (D Hold)
West Virginia (D Hold)
Results: So the current Intrade tally is 4 Republican pickups (Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, and Wisconsin with an Independent pickup (Maine)).
Final Score:
Current Senate: 53 Democrats (including 2 independents) - 47 Republicans
Intrade Senate Prediction for 2013: 50 Republicans - 50 Democrats (including 2 independents).