Skip to main content

We are now in the middle of September. President Barack Obama remains the incumbent. He is in the lead, Labor Day is gone and that day has set the trend for every election going.

No modern incumbent President leading in the opinion polls in Mid September has failed to be elected. What is modern? Try 40 years.

Poll of polls

Real Clear Politics

President Obama 49%
Mittens 46%
Result: ??

George W Bush 52% (not a true incumbent)
Senator John Kerry 45%
Result Bush 51% Senator Kerry 48%

President Bill Clinton 48%
Bob Dole 37%
Result President Clinton 49% Bob Dole 41%

President Ronald Reagan 57%
Walter Mondale 39%
Result President Reagan 59% Walter Mondale 41%

President Richard Nixon 61%
George McGovern 33%
Result President Nixon 60% George McGovern 39%

Precedent is there to decide or break if you are strong. Mitt Romney is not likeable. Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner and does not have a good campaign message. Republicans now need to quite literally pray that an un-likeable failed career politician, running a vulture voucher ticket can break 40 years of precedent.

Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags


More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site