We are now in the middle of September. President Barack Obama remains the incumbent. He is in the lead, Labor Day is gone and that day has set the trend for every election going.
No modern incumbent President leading in the opinion polls in Mid September has failed to be elected. What is modern? Try 40 years.
Poll of polls
President Obama 49%
George W Bush 52% (not a true incumbent)
Senator John Kerry 45%
Result Bush 51% Senator Kerry 48%
President Bill Clinton 48%
Bob Dole 37%
Result President Clinton 49% Bob Dole 41%
President Ronald Reagan 57%
Walter Mondale 39%
Result President Reagan 59% Walter Mondale 41%
President Richard Nixon 61%
George McGovern 33%
Result President Nixon 60% George McGovern 39%
Precedent is there to decide or break if you are strong. Mitt Romney is not likeable. Mitt Romney is not a good campaigner and does not have a good campaign message. Republicans now need to quite literally pray that an un-likeable failed career politician, running a vulture voucher ticket can break 40 years of precedent.