President Obama's Intrade contract betting share price has surged about 8% to $6.82/share for $10.00 return over the last week. This index had been oscillating in the region of $5.80 for most of August, and in June had been as low as $4.50.
This has been advertised as a prediction of a 68% probability of an Obama victory. Mitt Romney's numbers have collapsed about the same to $3.21. Some academic research has suggested that large volume betting markets more accurately predict some political events better than experts, and expert based forecasting models.
Note that this plot only show Obama's rise to about $6.40 so we should see an additional 40c rise in the next plot update.
Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 68.2% CHANCE
Last prediction was: $6.82 / share
Today's Change: +$0.10 (+1.5%)
Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012 32.1% CHANCE
Last prediction was: $3.21 / share
Today's Change: -$0.06 (-1.8%)
This jump can not be entirely explained by the release of Mitt Romney's video as significant upward movement started late last week, and rumors in the comments section have suggested that a very large player that has been willing to run loses to prevent President Obama's numbers from increasing beyond $6.00 since February finally gave up. The flatness of the numbers between late February and early June led me to suspect this as well.
Even though the plot of Mitt Romey's contract share price is largely the complement of the plot above, I enjoy seeing Mitt Romney plots that plummet wildly in negative directions so much I can't resist sharing this one with you.
I also enjoyed hearing one of CNN's talking head Romney spokeswomen admitting the discussions arising from the release were "not the best possible narrative," for Mitt Romney -- in other words, translating from political-speak to English, a complete, and total disaster.
It has been frustrating over the last six months to see so many Romney gaffes, and blunders with little reflection in polls, and betting markets.
This last week may be the straw that broke the camels back, as Romney's chickens seem to be coming home to roost, finally. Combinations of chicken and camel metaphors are seldom good for electoral candidates.
It's about time. Get our your popcorn as the day seems to be still warming up.