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Changed title and edited to correct a misapprehension.

Good Moorrrniiing America. The latest Associated Press-GfK poll has Obama up 52 to 37 among all adults and an approval rating also over fifty. Their likely voter screen makes the race a statistical heat, giving Obama just a one point lead, so the importance of GOTV cannot be overstated.

Still, 10% among registered voters? Wow! And this was before the famous video.

Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month's national political conventions, Obama's approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011.

...

The poll results vividly underscore the importance that turnout will play in determining the victor in Campaign 2012: Among all adults, Obama has a commanding lead, favored by 52 percent of Americans to just 37 percent for Romney. Yet among those most likely to vote, the race is drum tight.

Do you think it is reasonable to have a 10 point lead among RVs and only a 1 point among LVs?

In any case, good news to wake up to.

Cheers

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (8+ / 0-)

    I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one.

    by Athenian on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 03:27:18 AM PDT

  •  Correction: the 15 point lead is among all adults, (8+ / 0-)

    not registered voters. It still seems like a large disparity.

  •  It's plausible. (3+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Athenian, the fan man, oxon

    Reading the crosstabs, their screen isn't off the map. The dedicated racists, nutjobs and Wall St. whores will be there, will vote and HAVE ID. The others? Many are low-information, low-involvement people, you know the "it doesn't really matter who wins" cohort -- of course, those are the people who will get screwed the most by Romney (and deep down they suspect it which is why they support Obama) but they aren't motivated to vote -- overcome that and the republicans will never win again.

    To conservatives, liberals are stupid. To Liberals, conservatives are insane. So..."Bipartisanship" is what happens when a lunatic and a moron find common ground.

    by PBJ Diddy on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 04:02:47 AM PDT

    •  Republicans have tried to kill hope (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      afisher, Athenian

      and they've done a pretty good job, apparently.

      Register and GOTV, obvs.

    •  I think the screen is too tight (2+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Athenian, Stwriley

      It looks like, from my math, they cut the screen off at "always" or "almost always", and left out the part of the time folks.

      The thing is, Presidential races are actually the "part of the time" those folks show up and vote.

      That 9% of the sample is probably the difference between the one point lead here and something along the lines of the 4-5 that other polls are showing (yes, I think its conceivable that Obama is leading among this cohort by 30-40 points).

       

      •  It has evangelicals at 39 and the tea party at 32 (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Stwriley

        Are those reasonable numbers? It sounds scary.

        Cheers

        I refuse to believe corporations are people until Texas executes one.

        by Athenian on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 05:25:50 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  I'd say they cut deeper than almost always (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Athenian

        The total pool of interviews is N-1512.
        The total pool of registered voters is N-1282
        The total pool of ABC/GfK likely voters is N=807.

        The first question (S4) asking for intention to vote on a 1-10 scale has "definitely vote (10) at 73%. Those voter intention numbers are in keeping with past behavior as seen in S3a (72% of all 1512 respondents).

        73% of 1582 would have left 1100+ interviews standing.
        73% of 1282 would have left 935 interviews standing.

        The pool of ABC/GfK likely respondents represents just over 53% of their total pool.

        The pool of such respondents out of 1282 registered voters is a hair under 63% of that sub-population.

        I'd conclude that another screen, beyond "are you certain to vote" has been applied. Quite what that is is difficult to say. Perhaps they only take the absolutely dead certain to vote pool which is shown in question S2 as 51% of 1512 respondents (though that would yield fewer than 800 in the likely voter headcount, so, maybe not)? Almost certain to vote would have boosted the pool to, guess what - 72%, of 1512, nearly the exact rate at which the respondents report voting in 2008.

        The resulting party ID in their constrained likely voter pool is a near even split D-R-I-(Other) 31-30-30-(8). That doesn't seem all that likely to me.

  •  this poll is pretty weird (6+ / 0-)

    Obama is killing Romney but ends up with a 1 point lead. Seems like pollsters assume Obama supporters won't vote. Any incumbent with a 52% approval is on the way to a big win.

  •  Screen is way too tight. Post convention (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Stwriley, Athenian, PorridgeGun, bear83

    Most polls show higher Dem enthusiasm.  The RV numbers are great and there probably isn't more than a 3 point drop off from that for LVs.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Wed Sep 19, 2012 at 06:02:50 AM PDT

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