The American Conservative warns that Republicans are in danger of losing the House, based on based on the Princeton Election Consortium's data:
Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium is the first I’ve seen to even discuss the possibility, and he’s not an unbiased source. But he’s got data to back it up.(note: the Princeton link seems to be broken, I will edit if/when it's back up)
Using all polls and median-based statistics to address issues of outlier data gives the median of D+4.0% that I gave. That translates to a narrow 16-seat Democratic majority in an election held today. This would be an unusual outcome. It would involve a Democratic net pickup of over 30 seats, much more than the typical gain for a re-elected president’s party. But 2010 was also an exceptional wave year for the Republicans. Again, think of the pendulum. In any event, this is what the numbers are currently telling us.
You should review his data sets, polling numbers, and analysis before jumping in — but then you may feel like jumping off a cliff.
And this is what they think of the current crop of House Republicans:
Look, I hold no brief for the current batch of House Republicans, including the sainted Paul Ryan. I believe they are hypocritical, hyper-partisan, and unrealistic. No more self-congratulatory group of people ever existed that had less to congratulate themselves on. I mean, voting to repeal Obamacare thirty times? Was that necessary? Meanwhile, a small task like adopting the recommended reforms to save the Postal Service billions of taxpayer dollars languished in the in-box because closing a post office in Pipsqueak, Georgia, might have offended its total population of three.So it's wonderful to hear Paul Ryan having to say things like 'we're going to win this thing'. "Win this thing". "Do this thing". "Thing" seems to be an oddly popular phrase of Paul Ryan's. Knowing that the White House and possibly the Senate are out of reach, Republicans are hunkering down and trying to ensure they retain control of the House. You know their moods (while cheery on the outside) must be very glum indeed on the inside, when they have to reassure themselves in this fashion.
Republican vice presidential nominee Rep. Paul Ryan delivered a pep talk to his House colleagues on Thursday, telling them not to be distracted by the daily polls and controversies of the campaign.Well yes, if by big things you mean destroying Medicare and Social Security. Those are pretty big things.
Ryan projected optimism in the face of a slew of swing state and national polls showing President Obama leading Mitt Romney by several points. Lawmakers said the Wisconsin Republican made no direct mention of Romney’s comments about the “47 percent” of likely Obama voters, whom he disparaged in a May fundraiser caught in a video that was leaked this week.
"Here's our commitment: We are going to make this about the big things. We need to go on offense and we need to give our constituents the choice of two futures."
"We are going to win this thing,” he said.
Ryan spoke for thirty minutes, took no questions, and left to a standing ovation.
“It was all positive,” said Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee.Fine, ignore the polls. You're 'feelings' are what matter. Then, close your eyes, click your heels together three times and say "I'm your representative".
In Jordan’s critical home state of Ohio, two recent polls have shown Obama leading Romney by seven points. But Jordan said those polls don't reflect what he's seeing on the ground in the state.
“It’s not what you feel. It really isn’t,” Jordan said. “It’s just so different than 2008. You can just sense it.”
Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) repeatedly refused to comment directly on Romney’s “47 percent” remarks.Well yes, you've been saying it, that's certain. But Americans know that you and your colleagues have consistently made sure that no jobs legislation could pass the House, in an effort to insure the President's failure.
“This election is about jobs. We’ve said this for 20 months, and it hasn’t changed,” Boehner said. “Everybody is going to try to make this election about everything other than what it is. The American people are asking the question, where are the jobs? So the focus is on jobs. The president’s economic policies have failed, and the American people know it.”
Boehner was dismissive of commentary that Romney is losing, which he characterized as “political handwringing by Washington insiders trying to make this race look like it’s over for the president who’s going to win.”Sorry John but nothing would make me happier than your not surviving, as Speaker. But he's right about one thing - it's far from over.
He touted Gallup polling that has shown a consistently tight race and a drop-off in Obama’s bounce from the Democratic National Convention.
“This race is far from over, and I’m looking forward to the next 46 days,” Boehner said, before making a quip about his frenetic campaign schedule. “I just hope I survive.”
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