Skip to main content

U.S. President Barack Obama talks at a campaign event at the John S. Knight Center in Akron, Ohio, August 1, 2012. REUTERS/Larry Downing  
Winning more than he was in 2008.
I've made a couple of changes to our weekly battleground snapshot. First of all, New Mexico and Pennsylvania have been removed. They are no longer battlegrounds, so no need to pretend that they are. More interestingly, I've added a new column -- a comparison to the Real Clear Politics composite score from exactly four years ago ("O" is for Obama, "M" is for McCain). So today's numbers include a comparison from September 21, 2008. That way we can see how Pres. Barack Obama is running compared to his first bid. And the answer, for the most part, is "much better".

I decided to pull the two daily trackers from Rasmussen and Gallup to see how that changed the numbers. Well, it changed them a lot:

Obama 49.3
Romney 43.8

It's like the trackers are polling some entirely different race. But regardless, Obama is already running significantly ahead of 2008, when he had a 2.2-point national advantage over McCain.

Florida is an interesting case. Unlike the last several weeks, I'm no longer excluding the crap Baby Rasmussen pollsters that are swarming the state. Having artificially pessimistic numbers should cheer those who are paranoid of complacency. But if we take those fly-by-night Republican polling outfits, the Florida numbers are Obama 48.7, Romney 45.6 -- which would obviously be an improvement from last week.

But even the complete polling composite gives us fantastic news -- at a 1.3-point advantage, Obama is running over three points higher than in 2008.

And the numbers look similarly good, cycle-over-cycle, in Ohio and Virginia, Wisconsin and Michigan. As rough as North Carolina has looked for Obama this year, fact is he's over-performing his 2008 numbers at this point of the race by over six points. In fact, the only states in which Obama is currently under-performing are Colorado, Iowa, and New Hampshire. And he's still winning them.

And in case you're wondering, the movement in New Hampshire comes from a single Rasmussen poll in this surprisingly ignored state (for polling, that is), while in Colorado it came from a raft of polls showing a genuinely tight race. Meanwhile, in Ohio, Obama's margin would've inched up slightly had I taken out those crap GOP polling outfits.

Update: A week ago, Romney exceeded 46 percent five of these states, and hit 48 percent in just one. This week, he hits 46 percent in just three of them, and 48 percent in none. He is losing support.

He exceeds 46 percent in just five of these 12 states, and hits 48 percent in just one.

Originally posted to kos on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 10:34 AM PDT.

Also republished by Daily Kos.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site