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Sea Ice

Hey kids, looks like Christmas might have to be cancelled, forever. At least according to the National Snow & Ice Data Center:

Other leading ice scientists this week predicted the complete collapse of sea ice in the Arctic within four years. "The final collapse ... is now happening and will probably be complete by 2015/16," said Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University.

Sea ice in the Arctic is seen as a key indicator of global climate change because of its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. According to Nsidc, the warming of Arctic areas is now increasing at around 10% a decade.

Congratulations are in order to assorted Kochwhores, AEI, and the rest of the depraved, immoral sociopathic deniars who have been proven dead wrong again and again and again: We couldn't have trashed the planet so fast without your enthusiastic help. May future history be merciful to you and your children's names.
  • Time mag has their best space porn of the year up!
  • Later today, in just a few hours, fall will fall. As someone who has suffered through southern summers all my life, I can't tell you how happy that makes me.
  • No More Mister Nice Blog speculates on what would happen if anti-vaxxers caught on among the usual suspects!
    It would spread like wildfire. A third of Americans simply wouldn't vaccinate their children, insisting that the health effects of vaccination are just a "theory." Every Republican in Congress would have to sign an anti-vaccine pledge. There'd be movements to make vaccines illegal in the red states, and dispensers of vaccines would be defunded in those states, and their offices would be shut down. Right

Originally posted to Daily Kos on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:00 AM PDT.

Also republished by SciTech.


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Comment Preferences

  •  and what do the deniers say about this evidence (22+ / 0-)
    Other leading ice scientists this week predicted the complete collapse of sea ice in the Arctic within four years. "The final collapse ... is now happening and will probably be complete by 2015/16," said Prof Peter Wadhams of Cambridge University.
    Sea ice in the Arctic is seen as a key indicator of global climate change because of its sensitivity to warming and its role in amplifying climate change. According to Nsidc, the warming of Arctic areas is now increasing at around 10% a decade.

    yksitoista ulotteinen presidentin shakki. / tappaa kaikki natsit "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) 政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

    by annieli on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:06:41 AM PDT

    •  "(Their) blood will paint the way to the future.." (8+ / 0-)
      May future history be merciful to you and your children's names.

      yksitoista ulotteinen presidentin shakki. / tappaa kaikki natsit "Nous sommes un groupuscule" (-9.50; -7.03) 政治委员, 政委‽ Warning - some snark above ‽

      by annieli on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:12:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  Yet Fox and the WSJ are fighting against... (18+ / 0-)

      climate change with lies (emphasis mine below):

      "What we found in our analysis was that a staggering 93 percent of all occurrences in the last six months in the prime time news of Fox News were misleading occurrences of climate science. "

      93% wrong is no accident.   This is intentional anti-science dis-information and is damaging the country and the planet.

      "The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously." -- Hubert H. Humphrey

      by Candide08 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:14:27 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

    •  And By What Right Or Motive? (10+ / 0-)

      It reminds me of a terrible disaster movie named Solar Crisis (with Charlton Heston) where a solar flare is predicted to incinerate the Earth but using some macguffin bomb they will be able to divert it. Peter Boyle plays an industrialist who doesn't believe it will happen so is trying to thwart the scientist's plans so that he can use the crisis to buy up the entire planet on the cheap. There is no indication that this character has any special knowledge other than a belief system and doesn't seem to take into account the possibility of being dead wrong (literally).

      This seems to be the Republican/conservative tack. I don't believe in climate change because it is bad for my accumulation of wealth to believe in it. They have no foresight at all and like most modern corporations don't see anything beyond 3 months.

      This head movie makes my eyes rain.

      by The Lone Apple on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:16:57 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Motive? That's easy and even more lucrative than (10+ / 0-)

        the usual reasons given.  There are apparently vast oil reserves that will become available for drilling once the sea ice retreats enough, and, as well, the fabled Northwest Passage will open the Arctic route for much of the year, and make ocean transport between Europe and Asia that much faster and cheaper.  

        What's the downside?  All the billionaires controlling oil will be dead by when the planet starts going downhill at a really fast clip.  So it's no skin off their collective nose.

        Real plastic here; none of that new synthetic stuff made from chicken feathers. By the morning of 9/12/2001 the people of NYC had won the War on Terror.

        by triplepoint on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:32:15 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

        •  simpler than that, even (9+ / 0-)

 is a great resource. It's Bill McKibben's site. The number refers to the ppm of CO2 that is the current target of the feeble international talks, and a number high enough to continue the global wreckage that is underway.
          In a recent Rolling Stone article, McKibben demonstrated that the proven reserves in the ground, controlled by the oil companies, are enough to multiply that figure something like tenfold. Burning those proven reserves alone means an unrecognizable climate, a runaway greenhouse effect, before 2050. The promised extraction and sale of those reserves are reflected in the current stock price of every major oil company. To make any real moves away from fossil fuel production and consumption would directly and severely impact the global share price of every company in the world's most powerful industry.
          It has nothing to do with future drilling or extraction, though I'm quite sure the bastards are drooling over that prospect. Any action to mitigate the climate catastrophe runs directly counter to the interests of the creme de la creme of the oligarchy.

          Put another way; it's the planet's ability to sustain human civilization vs the industry that powers that civilization. We cannot have both.

          R-Money/R-Ayn, the ENRON Ticket, is not a campaign; it's a hostile takeover bid.

          by kamarvt on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:47:48 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

        •  The motive may not be skin off their noses now... (3+ / 0-)

          but don't they have children and grandchildren?  Aren't most rich people interested in passing on their wealth to future generations, creating dynasties?

          This has to be the most greedy, short sighted and foolish activity - even by ultra-rich standards.

          "The right to be heard does not automatically include the right to be taken seriously." -- Hubert H. Humphrey

          by Candide08 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 07:03:41 AM PDT

          [ Parent ]

    •  this is what they are saying (5+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      Aunt Pat, Siri, beltane, Candide08, maryabein

      Antarctic sea ice also set record.  There is now more antarctic sea ice then ever.

      This is true actually.  But there are a number of explanations for it and it doesn't contradict global warming theories.  However, is an easy foil for the anti-climate groups.  For simple minded people it is easy to point to the other end of the world and conclude that global warming is a hoax.

      •  Monitoring Lake Ice (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        maryabein, Amber6541, Lily O Lady

        Amateurs can monitor Ice-Out conditions on lakes. This will mirror the Arctic sea-ice to some degree, and also gives another perspective on climate change.

        I have an animated GIF (a few MB in size) and an analysis on this site for the state of Minnesota

        From Minnesota to New Hampshire, records were broken for earliest ice-out ever this past year, 2012, and it has been decreasing the last 60 years.

        The total is such that we have lost around a week of winter in Minnesota just from ice-out, and perhaps a week from first-ice, which isn't measured.  So that could be around a half  a month of winter gone in the last 60 years.

      •  Ah,...Joe Bastardi (0+ / 0-)

        Former Accuweather Guy Joe Bastardi, if I am not mistaken, uses the Antarctic example.
        Others have talked about how it is normal for the earth to go through warm and cool cycles. Wasn't Europe warm during the 10th-14th centuries? Also, weren't the Norse able to sail around Iceland, and Greenland freely during the 9th and 10th centuries due to much warmer than normal conditions?
        Please people, I am NOT being a troll here. What are the counter arguements to these?

        Yes, Antarctica has record ice. Also, it is true that Europe (if not other parts of the world) were really warm 900 years ago. Also, Europe did have a cold winter, didn't it?

        •  First off, if you're talking about global warming (0+ / 0-)

          you can't ignore the word "global" and pick local areas as if the world is the same in all locations.  There are historic climate datasets made from accumulating all of these isolated regional observations and attempting to extrapolate them.  They're not as accurate as more modern datasets, but they're a thousand times better than isolated anecdotes.  But you'll never see a denier cite one because they also argue for anthropogenic warming.

          I don't follow Bastardi so I have no clue what he says about Antarctica.  But just to give a bit of information on Antarctica, the Antarctic is a very different climate zone than the Arctic, namely because the Antarctic is land while the Arctic is water.  The net effect is that the arctic experiences warming faster than the global average, while the antarctic experiences it slower than the global average; this shows up both in models and observations.  Nonetheless, contrary to some bogus claims, the Antarctic is still warming, all but small areas of the interior.  The Antarctic is also experiencing more preciptiation, as warmer air holds more moisture.  In the arctic, due to it being all open seas, the net result is rapid sea ice loss. In the antarctic, so far at least, it's been slow sea ice gain, especially from the faster rate of ice influx from melting glaciers.

          No, the Norse were never able to sail "around" Greenland, only along the southern coast.  They always have been able to sail around Iceland.  Neither of these facts have changed.  Due to the extreme latitude, Iceland and Greenland were nearly the same temperature during the Medieval Warm Period as they are today, but this is not the case for most of the world.  And even up here, for example, the glaciers have never in historic times receded as much as they have today.  Snæfell, for example - literally "Snow Mountain" - has for the first time ever had its peak show through the glacier.  The entire glacier is expected to be gone in only 20-30 years, which is just crazy.  All of Iceland's glaciers?  200 years.

          Yes, it is normal for the world to go through temperature cycles.  It is not normal for the planet's temperature to change anywhere near this rapidly.  The last time that this happened was the PETM (Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum), 55MYA, where a natural huge influx of CO2 and methane occurred.  It changed the planet's climate so much that it caused mass extinctions and left the world such  different place that we give the era a new name - the Eocene.

    •  They claim the Antarctic ice is at a record (0+ / 0-)

      It is not, but that doesn't stop them from claiming it all the same.

      Guns don't kill people; physics kills people. At least when chemistry doesn't get there first.

      by Pale Jenova on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 08:29:11 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  I'm not as nice as you are.... (12+ / 0-)
    May future history be merciful to you and your children's names.
    I'm sure that, 100 years from now, the clip of Romney making light of rising seas--while speaking in Florida-- will be familiar to every schoolchild.

    But you know what? I'm pretty sure the right wing will soon be blaming us for not warning them hard enough.

    "There is just one way to save yourself, and that's to get together and work and fight for everybody." ---Woody Guthrie (quoted by Jim Hightower in The Progressive Populist April 1, 2012, p3)

    by CitizenJoe on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:14:16 AM PDT

  •  Autumn? Finally? (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    JML9999, palantir, Aunt Pat, GreenMother

    My plants and trees are life-cycle confused as hell.

    What we really need is James Inhofe as an integral part of overseeing the country's work toward addressing the climate crisis.

    Because he's special. And Jesus.

    Arm yourselves! God's stepchildren are running amuck.

    by Anthony Page aka SecondComing on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:16:14 AM PDT

  •  Vaccines? (6+ / 0-)

    That's big profits for Big Pharma with government (us) assuming virtually all of the risk. You're dreaming if you think the crazies can take it anywhere close to what is described. Big Pharma's big money will never let it happen.

    •  Just asking, are Vaccines a profit maker? (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Or one of those break even items. Since you need things like chicken eggs a commodity item to grow certain critters.

      The 1st Amendment gives you the right to say stupid things, the 1st Amendment doesn't guarantee a paycheck to say stupid things.

      by JML9999 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:24:16 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  vaccines are cheap (4+ / 0-)

        I've seen several articles over the course of the past six months saying that the reason new vaccines and antibiotics are not being developed is that they are not as profitable as other Big Pharma products.

        •  They're profitable with guaranteed market (2+ / 0-)
          Recommended by:
          Amber6541, JML9999

          The US government basically guarantees the purchase of critical vaccines like flu -- that's why all the hype about how everyone absolutely has to get vaccinated, so private insurers pay for as much of the batch as possible.

          I'm not sure about the old stand-bys like MMR, tetanus, etc. We don't need new ones on most of those, we just need a reliable supply with no "manufacturing problems."

      •  Disease (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        GreenMother, Amber6541, JML9999

        Outlaw birth control, family planning and food assistance. We still need a way to limit population growth. You know, mumps, measles, typhoid.....

        "And while it was regarded as pretty good evidence of criminality to be living in a slum, for some reason owning a whole street of them merely got you invited to the very best social occasions."

        by Shippo1776 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 07:15:26 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

      •  Depends on the vaccine (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        The routine vaccines probably aren't big profit centers, but others like Zoster, Hep B, Hep A are pricey. When a HIV or Hep C vaccine hits the market it won't be cheap, even though you can count on legislation/regulations that will protect the manufacturers from litigation.

  •  This great article on the ice & Berring Strait (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    hester, annieli, polecat, rovertheoctopus

    reveals a great deal about the change in sea ice...

    Worth a read

  •  Fascinating stuff on recent human evolution (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    From an article out yesterday.

    Southern Africa's bushmen, and their relatives the Khoe, veered off on their own path of genetic development 100,000 years ago, according to a new study this week.
    The split, gleaned from an analysis of genetic data, is the earliest divergence scientists have discovered in the evolution of modern humans.
    The Khoe and the San peoples -- who speak click languages, and live across a wide swath of southern Africa from Namibia to Mozambique to South Africa -- have long fascinated scientists.

    Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. - JFK

    by taonow on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:31:42 AM PDT

  •  Breaks my heart (the ice disappearing). (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Lily O Lady

    "Say little; do much." (Pirkei Avot: 1:15)

    by hester on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:42:35 AM PDT

  •  There is a sort of big "So what"? aspect to the (0+ / 0-)

    arctic melt.

    There is nothing -- literally nothing -- we can marshall the resources to do about it.

    It's going to happen.

    If anything, it makes sense to ask if we can take advantage of now-clear seas.  Maybe save some travel time (and burning of fossil fules) for ships.

    We need to turn our attention to surviving the mess we've made and finding attractive -- stuff that places like China, India, Indonesia, assorted African and South Amercian nations will buy into -- to stop bumping up the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.  Maybe in a few hundred years, things could start getting better.

    LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

    by dinotrac on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 06:53:41 AM PDT

    •  China, India and especially Indonesia (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      have such enormous coastlines that they will be affected more and faster than most "developed" countries, especially since, as developing nations, they are using the developed world's worst technologies to do so.

      Indonesia - all of its islands - will be completely underwater by the time they figure out that they have essentially committed suicide.

      "In this world of sin and sorrow there is always something to be thankful for; as for me, I rejoice that I am not a Republican." - H. L. Mencken

      by SueDe on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 07:36:39 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Yup, and still China increases it's CO2 output (0+ / 0-)

        by nearly 10% per year.

        Ironic: The US has actually fallen back to 1992 levels, due largely to (fracked!!! Gack) natural gas replacing coal and a slow economy.

        The bad part of all this is that CO2 doesn't go anywhere in a hurry.


        We really need to find ways to live with it.

        LG: You know what? You got spunk. MR: Well, Yes... LG: I hate spunk!

        by dinotrac on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 01:23:47 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  The Navy Says The Northwest Passage Will (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    annieli, polecat

    neccessitate a large Singapore-like harbor in Greenland, and they are already preparing for it as the ice sheet melts.

  •  Idiocy (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    PeterHug, Amber6541

    knows no bounds. Let's send the anti-vaccine crowd somewhere with low vaccination rates due to, I don't know, war, hunger, poverty, and see how vaccine has no effect.  

    I spend 5 years in Algeria as a child. My father, a doctor, made a lot of effort towards general vaccination; my little sis caught measles at age 10 month (non vaccinated carriers I guess), before he could vaccinate her. I remember how scared the adults were.

  •  Don't check this link, it's only weather (2+ / 1-)
    Recommended by:
    rovertheoctopus, Amber6541
    Hidden by:
    Webster Hubble Telescope

    but in Grise Fiord, Nunavut, the temp at 10:00 AM was -1C (just below freezing) which was also the forecast high. "Normal" high = -6C. A 5C increase is 9F, like the difference between 70 and 80F. (and the forecast for the whole week is at least 3C above "normal")

    Autumn starts in 35 minutes or as we said when we were kids: "Have a nice fall."

  •  Ah, self-serving, short-term, deliberate blindness (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Yes future generations may curse them, but they will be dead by then and they really don't believe in judgement day as they often pretend to dupe the ignorant masses.

  •  What we are really in for (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Amber6541, The Mort Man

    As someone with a science background (but not specifically climate science), this seems to be where we are headed.....IMHO:

    -2015 (+/- a year or two) the Arctic ice sheet melts completely for a few days in September

    -2018  The Arctic is ice free for most of August, September, and October.

    -2022 The Arctic is ice free for most of the latter half of the year, July through November.  It is considered navigable all year, though for a few weeks in the depth of winter, icebreakers are needed to clear shipping lanes.

    -2030 Atmospheric CO2 first crosses 450ppm.  Polar ice is melting most of the year, and the Arctic no longer freezes in the winter, except in shallow bays which can radiatively cool and are not warmed by currents.

    After 2030, we are starting a new Eocene, as the tree line moves rapidly north and disappears.  New weather phenomena establish in the Arctic as winter snow and ice is replaced by stratospheric clouds which hold the temperature around freezing while the sun is below the horizon.  
    Greenland is the land of waterfalls, no longer just in summer, but year round as the glaciers melt and melt and melt.  Greenlanders adapt by giving up seal hunting and turn to trout fishing and raising potatoes and cabbage.

    Curiously, the tropics will not be getting hotter by the same degree and scientists will have an opportunity to study heat transport to the poles for real, instead of just inferring it from Eocene sediment cores.  
    In the meantime, over a billion people will be climate refugees, flooded out of their low-lying coastal cities. New Orleans, Venice, Shanghai, Calcutta, Dubai, all will be abandoned to rising waters.

    The big problem in adaptation will be in managing water; building catchments large enough for the larger rainfalls, catchments that hold enough water for the longer dry periods.  People that used to rely on a steady trickle of water from a glacier will no longer have the glacier as a catchment device.  They will have to build dams across the course of the former glacier to tame the torrential rains that occasionally come.

    One of the big losers in all this will be science fiction writers;  the facts of real climate change will make for far more interesting reading than the fantasy any writer can dream up.

  •  Expect an "extreme winter" because of Arctic melt (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Denialists' heads are going to explode, but the loss of ice is apparently slowing the jet stream and shifting the Arctic oscillation cycles into the south (North American and Europe.) Hence, the cold winter in Europe this year.

    This, on top of the Farmer's Alamanc 2013 winter prediction for a colder than normal winter next year.

    "Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell." ~Edward Abbey ////\\\\ "To be a poor man is hard, but to be a poor race in a land of dollars is the very bottom of hardships." ~W.E.B. DuBois

    by rovertheoctopus on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 07:42:26 AM PDT

  •  Christmas without snow (0+ / 0-)

    Christmas does not have to have snow -- we've grafted northern European Yule customs onto it. (Hint: Where Jesus was born, probably in the spring, there were neither spruce trees, snow, nor reindeer.)

    That said, maybe one of our talented cartoonists can do up something showing reindeer swimming and pulling Santa on a raft or dingy. That might wake up some of the deniers.

    •  He'll have to move from the North Pole (3+ / 0-)

      But why should he worry?  The elves have been outsourced to China and it's clear that we all want coal in our stocking anyway.  (Or at least our politicians would rather have coal than windmills.)

      "Politics should be the part-time profession of every citizen who would protect the rights and privileges of free people and who would preserve what is good and fruitful in our national heritage." -- Lucille Ball

      by Yamaneko2 on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 08:20:03 AM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Anti Vaxers and Climate deniers are opposites (0+ / 0-)

    around here in liberal Boulder anyway. Both are anti science but from opposite sides of the political spectrum.

    How big is your personal carbon footprint?

    by ban nock on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 08:07:49 AM PDT

  •  Obama is on Mars (0+ / 0-)
  •  This is really horrific news. I read a recent (0+ / 0-)

    story about this loss of Arctic ice, and the climate scientists think there will be hell to pay for this on the US east coast as well as in Europe. WE have to start getting control of our fossil fuel/carbon problem very very soon. The tipping point is at hand if it hasn't been crossed already.

  •  1st sentence reminds me of diaries (0+ / 0-)

    The 1st sentence of this article reminds me of diaries written by 2 of Kos' more twisted readers:
    BREAKING NEWS: Santa Claus found dead; Christmas canceled
    Christmas Threatened by Global Warming

  •  10% of what? (0+ / 0-)

    "the warming of Arctic areas is now increasing at around 10% a decade."  What the hell does this mean? 10% of what? The ice shrinkage is obvious, but this sentence is gobblydegook.

  •  I am fairly convinced that... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    we as a people, will not be able to, in any significant way, avert the consequences of climate change. The best we can do is prepare for the global changes that are coming. We're already entering what a fellow who's opinion I think highly of is calling the Age of Limits.

    The Mega-corps and Über-rich are not going down without a fight. But they are VERY entrenched in the status quo, and getting them to bail out of the fossil fuel economy that their massive wealth and power is based on is very unlikely.

    To that end, as fossil fuel reserves grow more scarce and costly to retrieve, we will drill and dig after every drop of oil, wisp of natural gas and crumb of coal. But the Earth is essentially a petri dish, so long as we're a Earth bound species, it's a closed system of resources, with only sunlight and micrometeorites coming in. We'll have to endure some severe global and economic crises before we get nudged in any significant to sustainable systems, economies and lifestyles. All this with Climate change in the background to make it all more interesting.

    Nations tend to be short sighted about this sort of stuff, and tent to try to solve their problems with armies and guns. Hence the disaster of central Africa and America's bad behavior abroad. But the shame will be, if allowed, and the Right has its way, the utter dismantling of virtually all the environmental protections enacted in this Nation in the 70s and 80s...

    What th' heck do I know, I work for a living...

    by SamuraiArtGuy on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 11:35:44 AM PDT

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