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Yea I know we got some minor issues to deal with in 2012 but it may be interesting to take a look down the road at the VA Gov race in 2013.   This would be the first event after the election where the GOP bloodbath would be in full bloom.  They would be talking about not another Romney, current Governor Vaginal Probe Bob and his sidekick Lt. Gov Bill Bolling are in Romney's camp and are putting there resources to supposed work for him, ROMNEY IS GETTING CRUSHED IN VA, so will there be blowback for the Romney supporters in the GOP,   follow below the orange of knowledge with me.

In a recent poll The Washington Post floated out possible candidates for Governor and here were the results.  The link to the full poll along with crosstabs is below:

It shows some interesting points.
1.  Mark Warner would cruise to an easy win if he wanted it. He still is held in high regard across all party lines and 69 of likely voters would consider voting for him.  Yes I know its hard to test how likely voters would vote in a race almost a year away but its the signal that matters of how strong a Warner run would be.
2. Former DNC Chair Terry McAuliffe starts with around 40% who would at least consider voting for him and almost 30% who have no opinion which leads for a lot of room to grow.
It is to be noted that he did run in 2009 for the nomination and lost to State Sen. Creigh Deeds who ran one of the worst General Elections I have seen.
3.  The two leading GOP candidates Lt. Gov Bill Bolling and State Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli enjoy about 66 and 71% support amongst Republicans and we know that the Cooch has some bagage, hey you got called out on Jon Stewarts show not once BUT TWICE with your own feature!  

So how does this work for us.  The State GOP had decided to hold a primary to select the nominee which would be open to everyone.  This should be in Bolling's favor because it is open to independents and he enjoys some good support there, almost 60% consider voting for him.  The Cooch on the other hand enjoys about barely 50% support from independents.   But then a funny thing happened on the way to the coronation for Bolling, who the current Gov. VAGINAL PROBE BOB is endorsing, the GOP got taken over by Ron Paul followers and changed the nomination format to a convention where the die hards attend.  Here is a report of how even being out raised by Bolling, the Cooch seems to  have an inside track to the nomination.

 Point of reference would be the US Senate race in 2008, In 2008 when former Sen. John Warner left, it was known that Rep Tom Davis wanted to run and was gearing up for a run.  He was however a RINO in some parts of the state, he is from the Northern VA area.  So the State GOP selected a convention  to chose the nominee which many had taken as a shot at Davis that it is not yours to have.  Davis decided not to run.   The State GOP then rallied around former Gov. Jim Gilmore who was the champion of the NO CAR TAX pledge, it became a very popular bumper sticker.  But State Delegate Bob Marshall who is so far to the right that he even makes some in his party wince decided to launch a last minute run the nomination as well.  He almost won the convention even with Gilmore out spending him 8-1.  Gilmore went on to lose to Warner BADLY.

If the Cooch gets the nod, he is almost toxic in the NOVA area, we can run up the score with a good candidate and a good campaign, get VA true blue again.

Originally posted to restondem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 05:28 PM PDT.

Also republished by Virginia Kos.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (5+ / 0-)

    I can't force you to do anything, I can just make you regret it!

    by restondem on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 05:28:59 PM PDT

  •  Man, sending Gilmore against Warner was a joke. (4+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    restondem, FG, Gordon20024, pademocrat

    Worst decision the local GOP's made politically in a while. One of the least liked governors versus one of the most popular. I'm very glad they didn't let Tom Davis run; I know a lot of independents who liked Davis and it would have been a tough run between him and Warner.

    I have to confess, though, I don't know much about Terry MacAuliffe.

  •  Virginia and New Jersey both elect governors (0+ / 0-)

    to a four-year term the next year after the presidential election. Both VA and NJ like to pick a governor who's from the party that doesn't have the presidency (going back to 1981 for Virginia, back to 1989 for New Jersey).

    Here's a list:

    Year President Virginia Governor Winner New Jersey Governor Winner
    2009 Barack Obama (D) Bob McDonnell (R) Chris Christie (R)
    2005 George W. Bush (R) Tim Kaine (D) Jon Corzine (D)
    2001 George W. Bush (R) Mark Warner (D) Jim McGreevey (D)
    1997 Bill Clinton (D) Jim Gilmore (R) Christie Whitman (R)
    1993 Bill Clinton (D) George Allen (R) Christie Whitman (R)
    1989 George H.W. Bush (R) Doug Wilder (D) Jim Florio (D)
    1985 Ronald Reagan (R) Gerald Baliles (D) Tom Kean (R)
    1981 Ronald Reagan (R) Chuck Robb (D) Tom Kean (R)
    Democrats in bold
    That doesn't mean it's pre-ordained or anything like that. I hope VA (and NJ too) break the pattern in 2013.

    But the angle said to them, "Do not be Alfred. A sailor has been born to you"

    by Dbug on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 08:28:41 PM PDT

  •  What about Tom Perriello? (0+ / 0-)

    Despite his loss in 2010, he really impressed me (and that was before I moved to VA)

    •  Perriello is fantastic (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Probably one of the most brilliant and instinctive young progressives out there, and a total workhorse.

      He's currently the head of Center for American Progress Action Fund, which might possibly put him in too much of a liberal box for a statewide race in VA.  I'm guessing he had to know that before he took the job, so that might be an indication he's tacking away of running office.  I'm torn; as good as it would be to have people like him in office, he might contribute even more on the outside as a movement-builder.

    •  Tom is not interested (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      it works like this as far as I can tell

      if Obama loses or the Dems lose the Senate, Mark Warner will decide to run for Governor and win, he will not be challenged in the primary, and because he is running Terry will have to decide if he wants to move down and run for LG which if he does would bump Aneesh Chopra out of the race.

      If Obama is reelected and Dems hold Senate, not clear whether Mark will move into the gov's race - he might think he can better position himself to run for president in 2016 by being a 2nd term Senator - he would get reelected in 2014 fairly easily.

      In a race of Terry against Cooch, do not discount Terry.  He is a far better candidate than he was four years ago.  He has spent a lot of time helping Dems around the state.  He has an electric car company which while it does its assembly in MS is based in Virginia.  And he would have some pretty top political pros working with him.  And he could bring a lot of firepower to the general election, including money and Bill Clinton.

      "We didn't set out to save the world; we set out to wonder how other people are doing and to reflect on how our actions affect other people's hearts." - Pema Chodron

      by teacherken on Fri Sep 21, 2012 at 09:51:00 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  I would agree (0+ / 0-)

        With teacherken's assessment.   The problem for the VA Dems is that the bench is quite thin and both terry and warner have huge name rec. and also a lot of cash that it would be hard to overtake them.   It should be noted that when  both kaine a d warner won they had the primary field to themselves

        I can't force you to do anything, I can just make you regret it!

        by restondem on Sat Sep 22, 2012 at 07:19:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

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