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With a possible mini-wave building, here are my predictions for the House. I'm only calling races Safe, Lean, Tilt, or Tossup.  Likely has no use this close to Election Day.
Parentheses are my ratings from April.

Safe Dem Takeover:
Joe Walsh, IL-8: This guy will lose.  You can count on it.  Let's welcome Tammy Duckworth to the House, and then the Senate in 2017.

Safe GOP Takeover:
Brad Miller's Seat, NC-13: Yeah, it's not really his seat anymore due to redistricting.  Either way, it's Safe GOP.

Mike Ross's Seat, AR-4: Asshole.

Larry Kissell, NC-8: One of the most weaselly House Dems.  Still sad to see a Democrat be such a sure loss.  At least he didn't retire.  Cough, cough...Shuler. (Lean Republican)

From Lean Democrat to Off the Board:
These are the ones we shouldn't worry about.

Gary Miller, CA-31: Well this is actually Lean Democrat to Safe Republican.  So depressing.  We'll get it in 2014.

Ron Barber, AZ-2: Special election win should make this one an easy hold.

Denny Heck, WA-10: No need to worry about him.

Tim Holden's Seat, PA-17: Not sure why I ever had this at only Lean Dem.

Roscoe Bartlett, MD-6: Bartlett is doomed.

Carolyn McCarthy, NY-4: My worries were unfounded.

Mike Michaud, ME-2: He's incredibly strong.

From Lean Republican to Off the Board:

Mark Amodei, NV-2: We're running a Some Dude.

Jaime Herrera Beutler, WA-3: I don't think filing had closed when I rated this Lean R.

John Kline, MN-2: He's too entrenched.

Paul Ryan, WI-1: Yeaaaaah.

Steve Southerland, FL-2: We screwed up in the primary here.

Scott DesJarlais, TN-4: Haven't heard anything from Eric Stewart all cycle.

Scott Garrett, NJ-5: We recruited miserably here too.

Lean Democrat:

Bill Owens, North Country NY: He should be fine.

Ann Buerkle, Syracuse: She won't be fine.  Welcome back to Dan Maffei.

Jerry McNerney, CA-9: Did decently in the primary.  Shouldn't worry too much.

NV-4: Tarkanian's a terrible candidate, and SUSA sucks at House races.

AZ-1: Kirkpatrick can join Maffei and a couple others as comebackers.

Bob Dold, IL-10: He's doing everything right, but it won't be enough.

IL-12: Enyart's a good get, and Plummer's an idiot.

FL-9: Alan Grayson sucks.  Majorly.  But he's our guy now.

Ben Chandler, KY-6: He'll never be Safe, but I'm not worrying.

Tim Bishop, NY-1: Same as Chandler.

David Cicciline, RI-1: Dominant primary win makes me think he'll win this by a decent amount.

Dave Loebsack, IA-2: Decent amount of spending here, for some reason. (Safe D)

Lois Capps, Santa Barbara/SLO Counties, CA: For caution's sake. (Safe D)

WA-1: Susan DelBene's a great candidate here. Glad she beat Darcy. (Tilt D)

Mike McIntyre, NC-7: With the polling that's come out, I'm moving this to Lean D. (Tilt D)

Lean Republican:

OK-2: Fuck you, Dan Boren.  For real.  But it's looking better than I thought.

NC-11: I feel like we have a better shot against Meadows than people think. (Safe R)

Kathy Hochul, NY-26: Collins isn't great, but he has money and the district's lean.

CA-21: I had this at Safe R, but somehow John Hernandez is running ads.  So Lean R it is.

Scott Tipton, CO-3: Not sure how Sal Pace is supposed to beat an incumbent in a district Romney should win that isn't really ancestrally Dem.

Open Montana/North Dakota/Kristi Noem: All three of these at large seats are Lean Republican.

Lee Terry, NE-2: Obama isn't competing as hard here.  It's too bad.

Michele Bachmann, MN-6: Good luck to Jim Graves.

Reid Ribble, WI-8: I still love his name.

Larry Bucshon, IN-8: We'll see.  This one could break late.

Jim Renacci vs. Betty Sutton, OH-16: She's too liberal.

Bill Johnson, OH-6: Haven't heard anything from this race.

Scott Rigell, VA-2: Virginia is so uncompetitive.

Vicki Hartzler, MO-4: Below the radar, but probably for good reason.

Chris Gibson, NY-19: He's an old style NY moderate, unlike Hayworth who I expected to be the moderate one.

Rick Crawford, AR-1: This would be a nice one to win.

Justin Amash, MI-3: I don't think Pestka has done enough (from Tilt R)

Michael Grimm, NY-11: Ethics obviously aren't enough of a reason to make you lose in NYC (from Tilt R)

Mary Bono Mack, CA-36: Newly on the board after the DCCC invested money here. (Safe R)

Mike Fitzpatrick, PA-8: Not sure why I had this at Tilt D.  (Tilt D)

Nick Lampson, TX-14: Very under the radar.  Weber may be taking this for granted. (Safe R)

Vern Buchanan, FL-16: He somehow got off. (Tilt R)

Now for the Key Races....

Tilting Dem:

Julia Brownley/Tony Strickland, CA-26: Erring on the side of caution. (Lean D)
John Taviglione/Mark Takano, CA-41: GOP has a strong machine in Riverside County. (Lean D)
Kyrsten Sinema/Vernon Parker, AZ-9: We're lucky GOP has a weak candidate. (Lean D)
Bobby Schilling, IL-17: Bustos seems to be struggling. (Lean D)
Judy Biggert, IL-11: Biggert's the strongest of the IL GOPers for good reason. She's been around a long time. (Lean D)
Mark Critz, PA-12: I'm very favorable on this race. But I'll keep it in Tilt Dem to be safe. (Lean D)
Elizabeth Esty/Andrew Roraback, CT-5: A two moderate race.  Extremely rare. (Lean D)
Charlie Bass, NH-2: This should've stayed Tilt. (Lean D)
Frank Guinta, NH-1: Good polling has surprised me. (Lean R)
Brian Bilbray, CA-52: We got our guy. (Tilt R)
Chip Cravaack, MN-8: He can go to New Hampshire now.
Dan Benishek, MI-1: Very optimistic on this race.
John Barrow, GA-12: He's a fighter and a winner.
David Rivera, FL-27: Jail is looking more likely than re-election.
Allen West, FL-18: Ugh. He better lose.

Tilting Republican:

Steve King, IA-4: The lean of the district will let him pull this one out. (Lean R)
Tom Latham/Leonard Boswell, IA-3: Latham's as establishment as it gets. (Lean R)
Joe Donnelly's Seat, IN-2: Walorski's obviously worried, judging by her ads. But they may be helping he. (Lean R)
Tim Johnson's Seat, IL-13: Gill just seems too far left.  If he wins, all progressives should know how to campaign in swing districts. (Lean R)
Nan Hayworth, NY-18: Carpetbagging never looks good.
Sean Duffy, WI-7: Kreitlow is underwhelming. (Tilt D)
John Tierney, MA-6: I think he loses even in a mini wave. Brown will romp here, Romney won't do terribly, and while he may or may not have known about the scandal, his wife clearly did.

Pure Tossups:
Jeff Denham, CA-10: Jose Hernandez is excellent. (Lean R)
Dan Lungren, CA-7: Been volunteering here. (Tilt Dem)
Jim Matheson, UT-4: Romney's strength here may doom him. (Tilt Dem)
Quico Canseco, TX-23: Gallego's excellent. (Tilt GOP)
Mike Coffman, CO-6: He hasn't been helping his re election efforts this year. (Tilt GOP)
Open Detroit Area Seat, MI-11: McCotter fiasco has been really entertaining. (Safe GOP)
Jon Runyan, NJ-3: Under the radar. (Lean R)
Joe Heck, NV-3: It'll be very very close. (Tilt D)

This puts us at 229-198 with 8 Tossups.  233-202 would be the most likely, which is +10 for us, I think.

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Comment Preferences

  •  Tip Jar (12+ / 0-)

    19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
    Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
    UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

    by jncca on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 01:32:00 PM PDT

  •  Tipton-Pace (CO-3) (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    I've seen a lot of Tipton signs, but not a whole lot of evidence that Pace is even running!

    This ain't helpin' to take back the House, Sal.  I've been making calls for you, and will again this week...

    "We don't have village idiots any more; we have Republicans." - Positronicus

    by Maverick80229 on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 02:24:33 PM PDT

  •  Sorry but (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Without even the state given, much less the district, I just couldn't follow your list. Lacking the key info, it does not follow the same format of other lists, and I couldn't compare.

    I mean, I could stop at each one, look for a clue, hope to remember something to relate to other lists and info I have seen ... but I got tired and stopped.

    Better luck next time.

  •  A plausible scenario (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    though I could ask a lot of questions, e.g. What makes you bullish on Critz and bearish on Foster? I'd also bet Gill has better odds than Bustos.

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 02:55:34 PM PDT

    •  Critz and Foster (3+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:
      MichaelNY, Woody, Zack from the SFV

      Critz is in an ancestrally Dem district and won in 2010.  His opponent is also weaker than Judy Biggert is.
      Foster is in an ancestrally GOP district and lost in 2010.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 05:25:58 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Foster was running in a worse district (0+ / 0-)

        Critz was running in a friendlier district.

        Judy Biggert has never represented Joliet or Aurora. Those areas are urban (by collar county standards) and won't hesitate to vote 3-to-1 for Foster. She's done.

        Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

        by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 03:01:34 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Plausible (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    but I'm curious why you're more confident in Critz than Foster?

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 03:00:05 PM PDT

  •  And has there been a single good poll for Delaney? (0+ / 0-)

    ME-01 (college) ID-01 (home) -9.85, -3.85

    by GoUBears on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 04:10:03 PM PDT

    •  he was leading in July, although only by 2 (3+ / 0-)

      Bartlett's said some crazy things since then, though.  And most of the undecideds were probably Dem leaning; Bartlett's not a guy who could get a ton of crossover votes.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 09:17:54 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  There haven't been any public polls since, but (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:

        the NRCC did not include this on its new list of 26 media buys, so I doubt whatever polling they have looks very good for Bartlett.

        Some comments on RRH suggested this may be a triage.  Maybe the DC media market is too expensive, and the newly added bloc of Democratic voters too large and immovable, to justify much effort (especially if Delaney's personal wealth is considered), so they may see enough pickup opportunities elsewhere to let this one drop.

        37, MD-8 (MD-6 after 2012) resident, NOVA raised, Euro/Anglophile Democrat

        by Mike in MD on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 03:04:56 PM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Good analysis! (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    MichaelNY, Zack from the SFV

    I agree that CA-10 is a Tossup, I feel that Hernandez is really coming on there and I love his ads. Thanks for volunteering for Bera too, he really needs to win!

    For more election analysis and redistricting maps, check out my blog CA-2 (former CA-6) College in CA-37

    by Alibguy on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 05:29:20 PM PDT

  •  On defeating Paul Ryan for his Congressional Seat (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    Woody, MichaelNY

    I say it should be won by Rob Zerban no matter what the odds are!



  •  Sorry (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    Still confused.

    At the end you predict 233-202, or +10 for us. So you mean, 233 R - 202 D?

    We gotta do better than that. But we still have time.

  •  Val Demings? (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    As in you think that race is safely Republican? I completely disagree and I think all the powers that be do as well.

    22 Burkean Post Modern Gay Democrat; NM-2 (Raised), TX-20 (B.A. & M.A. in Political Science), TX-17 (Home); Intern w/ Gallego for Congress; Office Personnel at CCA.

    by wwmiv on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 09:08:48 PM PDT

    •  The district is R+6 or R+7 (1+ / 0-)
      Recommended by:

      Incumbents, minus scandals, don't lose in districts like that.

      Guys like Bill Sali can. Or Dollar Bill Jefferson. But not guys like Daniel Webster.  I really hope the DCCC is seeing something I'm not, and not wasting tons of money.

      Even Melissa Bean, who managed a massive upset in 2004, was only in an R+4 district.

      19, CA-18 (home), CA-13 (school)
      Socially libertarian, moderate on foreign policy, immigration, and crime, liberal on everything else.
      UC Berkeley; I think I'm in the conservative half of this city. -.5.38, -3.23

      by jncca on Sun Sep 23, 2012 at 09:14:28 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

  •  Good, safe predictions (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:

    with clear evidence for all calls.  The path to a majority does go through quite a few lean GOP seats, but if the rest of the campaign goes like the past couple weeks...

  •  late response (0+ / 0-)

    first off, several nitpicks: David Rivera is FL-26, Kathy Hochul is NY-27, and I think Roscoe Bartlett goes under the Safe D pickups.

    As for FL-02, I'm not sure if this news came out before or after you wrote this diary but Lawson is on Red-to-Blue so clearly he's doing something right...though I agree that Bembry probably would have been stronger with fundraising being equal (which, sadly, it wasn't).

    Also, your logic for downgrading TN-04 and for upgrading TX-14 don't seem that different to me. Could you perhaps elucidate? It sounds like both races are under the radar to me.

    IL-13 is a "swing district," sure, but it has a D tilt to it, and it takes in several big universities like U of I and ISU. so it's really not that surprising that a liberal could do well here, especially since Gill's ads are very good and don't scream "radical left-wing hippie."

    CO-03: is this not an ancestrally D district? I'm not sure what it used to look like, but before Tipton of course it was held by John Salazar. Before him it was Scott McInnis, but before McInnis was Ben Nighthorse Campbell (before he became an R). it may not be Western PA but clearly Democrats do win congressional races here.

    Living in Kyoto-06 (Japan), voting in RI-01, went to college in IL-01.

    by sapelcovits on Mon Oct 01, 2012 at 03:11:28 AM PDT

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