During the recall election campaign, Scott Walker re-made his 2010 promise to see Wisconsin create 250,000 jobs during his first term, and furthermore said that there would be a "dramatic turnaround" and "a tremendous takeoff" in the jobs numbers after June 5th as political uncertainty was removed. There are now three new months of Wisconsin jobs data since Walker's re-election on June 5th, so it's time to re-visit the numbers and see how things are shaping up:
Over the last three months, Wisconsin has lost 11,500 jobs and the Walker jobs deficit (the difference between where we are and where Wisconsin would be if growth had happened at the national rate) is 17,300.
Since Walker became Governor in January 2011, Wisconsin has lost 20,200 jobs. The total jobs deficit since then is now an incredible 80,000 (the disparity rising from 66,000 when I last diaried this in May):
(Same conclusion represented as a bar chart).
That is to say, Walker's economic management of Wisconsin falls that far from being merely average and unexceptional.
All charts created by RandomNonviolence.
Private sector jobs
Walker's 2010 campaign promise was that he would create 250,000 jobs. While he didn't qualify that at the time, after the November 2010 election and during his repeat of it the recall campaign he has couched it as 250,000 private sector jobs by 2015. So granting the qualification that requires 5,200 net new private sector jobs each month, every month from January 2011 to January 2015. Let's see how he's doing:
So Wisconsin has lost 15,300 private sector jobs under Walker and now needs to somehow add 9,150 every month from now on to get to where he promised to take us, a change of direction that Walker is determined not to make. Why change a broken formula?
A regional phenomenon?
Different regions of the country have historically entered and left recessions at different times. So let's have a look at how Walker's Wisconsin is doing relative to some of our neighbors and other Great Lakes states:
(Same conclusion as a bar chart).
In absolute numbers:
So while in the region only Indiana and Ohio just outpace national job growth rates, there aren't any excuses to be found in the regional figures for Walker.
This is why all Americans of every stripe should:
On the last-minute jobs figures Walker produced
Walker hurried out the Wisconsin QCEW (quarterly census of employment and wages) jobs numbers just before the election and weeks before they were actually due, thus using government resources for partisan ends. Which sadly came as no surprise to citizens of Milwaukee County.
No matter what you think of them as a measure, they too tell a story of woe. Between December 2010 and December 2011 (the last month that data are available), they show Wisconsin jobs growing by 0.7% while the national growth stat was 1.4% and giving Walker a 2011-only jobs deficit of 17,000 vs the national trend and 43,000 vs his campaign promise.
From 2010 to 2011, Wisconsin dropped from 4th to 11th of 12 states in the Midwest census region last year by his favored measure; down from 13th to 41st among the 50 states (only one of the nine with worse QCEW-measured 2011 growth rates has a Democratic governor; seven have a Republican governor; four have a Republican trifecta of Governor and both houses of the Legislature).
P.S. Look who's promising Wisconsin 240,000+ jobs now:
Three and a half months after the recall election, scottwalker.org no longer contains the 250,000 jobs promise.