Herewith, a list of the states where 538 has Romney leading in their projected Nov. 6th vote total, but by less than ten percentage points.
State |
Romney |
Obama |
Delta R-O |
EC votes
|
Arizona |
53.3 |
45.6 |
7.7% |
11
|
Indiana |
52.8 |
45.9 |
6.9% |
11
|
Missouri |
52.4 |
46.4 |
6.0% |
10
|
Montana |
52.7 |
45.0 |
7.7% |
3
|
North Carolina |
50.8 |
48.5 |
2.3% |
15
|
Omaha (NE CD#2) |
51.6 |
47.0 |
4.6% |
1
|
This map requires roughly 4% of projected voters to switch sides, or 8% of Romney voters (roughly 1 in 6) to stay home in despair. It's a long shot today, but aardvarks are optimistic beasts.
And the resulting EC vote would be 383 to 155. The popular vote would be on the order of 55 to 45.
If the popular vote is about 57.5 - 42.5, the following additional states switch:
Georgia (16), North Dakota(3), South Carolina(9), South Dakota(3), Texas(38), West Virginia(5), Nebraska CD-1 (1)
This map shows that scenario - a 458 to 80 landslide. This requires one voter in 16 to change sides, or roughly 1/4 of Romney voters to stay home.