Skip to main content

My apologies if this was talked about earlier, but I didn't see any links.  William Kristol is picking up on a lot of chatter that I think is true.  We are looking at another wave election.

Could Republicans Lose the House? - TWS

The new Politico/GWU/Battleground poll seems to me, from a quick perusal of its internals, to have produced solid and non-quirky results consistent with several other surveys. It has a D+3 sample, and shows an Obama margin of 3 on the presidential ballot test and a 1 point Democratic edge on the generic congressional ballot.

Which raises the question: Is the conventional assumption that Republicans will continue to hold the House sound?

It may not be. Two other recent likely voter polls have produced an R+1 and a tied generic congressional ballot. So let's say that right now the congressional ballot is tied. The closest we've come to an even national popular vote for the House in recent years was in 2000, when Republicans had a narrow popular vote margin of .3 percent, and ended up with a narrow 221-212 margin in seats. An even popular vote tends to translate into pretty even results in seats split between the two parties. In the wave elections of 2006, 2008, and 2010, by contrast, the parties' popular vote margins ranged from 6 to 8 percentage points. The middling GOP majorities of 2002 and 2004 were based on national popular vote margins of more than 2 1/2 points.

In other words, IF the polls are right, and IF nothing much changes over the remaining six weeks, the House could well be in play. Maybe things will move in a Republican direction. Or maybe Republicans will hold on in an even popular vote election with the help of incumbency advantages and post-2010 redistricting. But it's also possible that an Obama +3 victory on Election Day would drag the Democrats to an edge in the congressional vote—and control of the House. In any case, based on current polling, I don't think one can say that it's now out of the question that we could wake up on the morning of November 7 to the prospect of ... Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

If I may once again quote the prophet Aladdin: “Abu, this is no time to panic. .  .  . Start panicking!” /blockquote>

What do you think?

Poll

Dems win majority in House

76%79 votes
23%24 votes

| 103 votes | Vote | Results

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

  •  It's possible (4+ / 0-)

    I'm kind of surprised, lately, at Kristol's remarks. I think he called Romney the worst candidate ever... and some of the freeper-types are already calling him a RINO

    There's smart, and there's K-mart smart. Sarah Palin is K-mart smart.

    by InsultComicDog on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 10:04:39 PM PDT

  •  That's what I'm working for! (6+ / 0-)

    We really can do this.

    Small acts, when multiplied by millions of people, can transform the world.~ Howard Zinn

    by ParkRanger on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 10:05:58 PM PDT

  •  Quick question. (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    If the Dems do take the house, are we sure it will be Speaker Pelosi again? Or does Hoyer have a shot?

    "If these Republicans can't stand up to Rush, how can they stand up to the Iranians?" - Redmond Barry

    by xsonogall on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 10:13:24 PM PDT

  •  It's looking more and more likely every week. (5+ / 0-)

    I'd still say the GOP hangs on to a ultra-slim majority of where they have a 3 to 5 seat advantage, but things are trending in the right direction in a number of districts(although we are also going to lose a few seats to the GOP too.  Like Arkansas.   FU Mike Ross).   I am really hoping that Obama coattails makes things better in certain House races.

    I would love to see Speaker Pelosi come January.   Of course, she'll have to really clean things up after what Boehner and the (Bitter) Tea Party have done.

  •  This makes me realize (0+ / 0-)

    how much I miss genius-boy Nate's old site.  You could go there and find data and analysis on all the races, and draw your own hopeful conclusions.  Or is it really still out there and I'm just going to the wrong place?

  •  Possible (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    Obama's coattails, combined with Romney's voter-repelling anti-magnetism, could indeed give the House back to the Dems.

    It is said that the RW billionaires' super-Pacs, seeing that Mitt is a loser, will now take their money down ticket to Senate and House races. OK, color me officially worried about that. But on the other hand, if unlimited money couldn't buy the top spot, why should it be able to buy any other spot? And even if their money could overcome their Dem opponents, what reason do we have to think it can overcome the fact that the Tea Party and mega-corp factions of the Republican party truly, deeply despise each other?

  •  Even if the House doesn't come to pass (4+ / 0-)

    the extreme right wing is going to suffer this cycle. The Republican party can either run further to the right and split, or come back to the center and finally stand up to their teabaggage.

    He should peer deep into the abyss. He should look straight into the heart of darkness where lies a Republican defeat - Peggy Noonan

    by Steven Payne on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 10:24:30 PM PDT

    •  There might be a tug-of-war (0+ / 0-)

      between the teabaggers and the rest, but being as they all are dedicated obstructionists, I'm not sure how that helps.

      There's smart, and there's K-mart smart. Sarah Palin is K-mart smart.

      by InsultComicDog on Mon Sep 24, 2012 at 10:48:26 PM PDT

      [ Parent ]

      •  Boehner's side is not obstructionists (2+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Steveningen, pistolSO

        They (moderates) obstruct because they've taken on the T's but they are not, by nature, obstructionists.  If they lose in dramatic fashion, but hold on to the House, Boehner will have a lot of support in telling Cantor to shut up.  I actually hope this happens because I think we need a 2 party system but the GOP has to come back to a concern for America over Party.

        "Waiting her for Everyman, don't ask me if he'll show...maybe, I don't know." "You might think that it's (Earth) beautiful, if you didn't know. You might think that it's turning, but it's turning so slow." Both from Jackson Browne

        by rainmanjr on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 02:19:30 AM PDT

        [ Parent ]

  •  Intrade's odds on a Dem HOR takeover have... (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    stevenaxelrod

    ... just about doubled in the last 30 days, from the low teens in late August to 27.5 percent today.

    There certainly appears to be no prospect for a dramatic shift of that momentum. What the hell does anybody think any GOPbag House members are going to do in the next six weeks which is likely to change anybody's mind?

    Of course KochCo will flood the airwaves with a tsunami of scare ads about the horrible mooslim neegro Obama and how all his friends must be thrown out of Congress, but do you think any of those teabagger idiots are going to hate Obama any more on Nov. 6 than they do today?

    Anybody who is going to fall for that shit has already fallen for it long ago.

  •  Lose the Tea Party anyway (2+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    rainmanjr, pistolSO

    A sensible Republican house, if there is a such a thing, would be a big improvement on the nay-saying tea party bunch. Even Boehner is sick of them.

  •  The battleground poll is a bit conservative (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    FriendlyNeighbor

    leaning per their performance in 2008.  They saw a much closer race between McCain and Obama and only adjusted following the issuance of several state polls in late September through mid-Ocotber.

    As for Dems chances in the House, if the election were today, Dems would gain about 9-10 seats.  They need 25.  The next 3 weeks should tell us if there is additional momentum.  Dems need to clean up in CA, NY and IL, and win a few more seats in Florida.  If they do, they'll get close and progress in those identified toss-up races might lead to momentum elsewhere.

    Alternative rock with something to say: http://www.myspace.com/globalshakedown

    by khyber900 on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 04:11:43 AM PDT

  •  The Presidential race is the wind at our back (1+ / 0-)
    Recommended by:
    pistolSO

    but redistricting means the current is against us.

    Either way, it's gonna be tight. The House could easily end up with a narrow 220-215 margin for one party where a combination of scandals, resignations, untimely deaths, or mid-term special elections could flip House control. Wouldn't that be fun?

    NC-4 (soon to be NC-6) Obama/Biden 2012

    by bear83 on Tue Sep 25, 2012 at 06:43:02 AM PDT

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site