Hilarious article today from The Hill:
Yes, the polls are skewed! Romney is really winning! And by a lot!
The Romney campaign and other Republicans say polls showing President Obama with a significant lead over their candidate are inaccurate.Please, make them stop! I am afraid I may pull a muscle in my side from laughing so hard! And they're relying on some quack with his own, little "poll re-weighting" site to back up their claims? Really? Damn it! There goes one of the muscles in my rib cage!
“I don’t think [the polls] reflect the composition of what 2012 is going to look like,” Romney pollster Neil Newhouse said in an interview.
Frustration that polls are skewed in favor of Obama has escalated among some on the right in recent weeks. One website, www.unskewedpolls.com, recently began re-weighting the mainstream polls to closer track the demographic assumptions of conservative polling outlet Rasmussen Reports. The re-weighted polls all show Romney ahead in the race, with leads of between 3 and 11 percentage points.
It's not just that a few polls are wrong. Most polls are wrong!
But Newhouse argues the RCP average, which is designed to neutralize outlying polls, is just an average of skewed polls that have a built-in bias for Obama.Okay, Neil, your claim is that for the first time in history, most polls 40 days out from the election are off by a significant magnitude.
“Averaging bad polls that include skewed samples will get you a skewed result,” Newhouse told The Hill.
And, kos, I give. For months, I have argued against your designation of Dick Morris as holder of the title, Worst Pundit on the Planet© in favor of the always-wrong, Bill Kristol. But after reading this piece, I concede. Dick Morris is, indeed, the worst.
Dick Morris, the political consultant and pollster (who writes a column for The Hill), wrote last week that pollsters using 2008 turnout models in weighting their samples are likely to be incorrect given the turnout results that year.So Newhouse, Morris and this clown from unskewedpolls.com with his secret formulas, Chamberlain, know something that most experienced pollsters don't know: damn near every pollster is getting the make up of the electorate wrong this year! Yes, they are all making serious mistakes in their voter profiles!
In 2008, Democrats had a 7-percentage-point advantage in party identification over Republicans, which was close to the final margin of victory Obama had over Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.).Hey, geniuses, here's the real "tell" on polling accuracy: where are the campaigns and their surrogates advertising?
Newhouse and other Republicans say it’s foolish to expect a similar proportion of Democratic voters in 2012. They argue a smaller proportion of Democrats are likely to come to the polls in November, while a larger proportion of Republicans eager to deny Obama a second term can be expected to vote.
Michigan is off the board (RCP average: Obama +8.6). PA is off the board (Obama +8). Wisconsin is headed that way (Obama +7.8), as well. Ohio is still on the board because if Romney loses there, he's toast and the state is at least close to the margin of error (Obama +4.1). Florida is still tight (Obama +2.2). Iowa is still at Obama +4 so advertising will stay up there. Nevada is at Obama +3.4 but it is trending Obama in the latest polls. Colorado is Obama +2.3 but trending Obama. North Carolina is at +1 Obama but trending Obama in the latest polls.
If the campaign and its surrogates are advertising in a state, it's in play. If not, you can be sure they know it's over. So all of Romney's eggs are in the Ohio basket at this point.
Newhouse is spinning to give a glimmer of hope to the faithful. Understandable, but that doesn't make it real or true.
Oh, I'm finally catching my breath. Finally. You guys are just too damn funny.
And, yes, Dick Morris is the Worst Pundit on the Planet©. You win, kos.