Yes, this year's campaign truly is a horse race, and a very specific horse race at that: The 1973 Belmont Stakes.
http://www.youtube.com/...http://www.youtube.com/...
Follow the link to watch the race. It's a sight to behold! And then follow the commentary over the hurdle, and see if you agree with the comparison!
This presidential race started much like the Belmont Stakes. Obama was clearly the class of the field, with a number of competing Republicans there at the start. But by the time they hit the back stretch, it became merely a head-to-head competition.
And then there came a point on that back stretch where Secretariat (and president Obama) took the lead, and he never lost it again. Going into the final turn (the Party Conventions), the lead began to open up, first slowly, then more and more.
Where we are now is about 1:40 into the tape, where the lead has become big enough for the crowd to get a very good sense of how this race will end up.
And so it is with this election, where at the 538.com blog, Nate Silver's Nowcast has the probability of Obama winning at 96.4%.
Now, there's still a long way to go to the finish line, close to 6 weeks and things could happen.
But the thing is that the Democrats' horse in this race is like Secretariat, moving along the track as the announcer says, "like a tremendous machine."
Romney is like Sham (no pun intended), unable to keep pace and losing steam.
And that part holds as well. Barack Obama is an historically inspiring candidate, and depending on the next 4 years might go down as one of our great presidents.
And he doesn't only have greatness within him, but he's got heart.
He's one of the best America has to offer, and he cares. His wife said it best: He does not close the door behind him, but he seeks to keep it open for all to enter. He relates to everyday people, who (for the most part) like him and trust him.
And he's got mad political skills.
Romney thinks the Emergency Room constitutes health care coverage and wonders why airplane windows don't roll down. And for the most part people neither like or trust Mr. Romney.
And his political skills are....um....not anywhere to be found.
Yes, things could go wrong, there are no certainties in life. But if I had to predict, I'd say that Obama's lead will grow and grow in coming weeks as we come down the home stretch.
I don't know if the president will win by a Secretariat-like margin (31 lengths), the way LBJ beat Goldwater in 1964, but I do think that this race will be well over as soon as the polls are closed.