Skip to main content

The most recent iteration of Pollster's Electoral College projections, as posted today on Huffington Post, eliminates the last remaining tossup states (NC and NH) by assigning them to Barack Obama.  They project the Electoral College vote to be 347-191 for Obama, with only IN flipping from Democratic to Republican compared to the 2008 results.

In addition to assigning each state to a particular candidate, Pollster also assigns a degree of confidence to each projection.  Their confidence in a 5-point Obama lead in FL, surprisingly, is 100%.  They are also 100% confident that Obama is ahead in all the Midwestern states except IN (MN, WI, MI, and OH). Their confidence in a 6-point Obama lead in IA is 97%.  In NH, confidence drops to 90%, and in NC it is all the way down to 84%.

Compare these projections to those at TPM, which is still listing NC and NH as tossups, and Real Clear Politics, which still has Obama at 265 Electoral votes (just short of the 270 needed to win) and considers NV, CO, IA, NH, VA, NC, and FL as tossups.

Not as big news perhaps as Nate's projection of 80% likelihood of an Obama victory in November, but one more data point to add to the mounting pile of evidence that this race -- barring something major and unforeseen -- is pretty much over.

Update: Within five minutes of posting this diary, NC flipped back to a tossup, as both Christian Dem in NC and Flying Goat pointed out in comments.  Still, the map is getting better every day.

EMAIL TO A FRIEND X
Your Email has been sent.
You must add at least one tag to this diary before publishing it.

Add keywords that describe this diary. Separate multiple keywords with commas.
Tagging tips - Search For Tags - Browse For Tags

?

More Tagging tips:

A tag is a way to search for this diary. If someone is searching for "Barack Obama," is this a diary they'd be trying to find?

Use a person's full name, without any title. Senator Obama may become President Obama, and Michelle Obama might run for office.

If your diary covers an election or elected official, use election tags, which are generally the state abbreviation followed by the office. CA-01 is the first district House seat. CA-Sen covers both senate races. NY-GOV covers the New York governor's race.

Tags do not compound: that is, "education reform" is a completely different tag from "education". A tag like "reform" alone is probably not meaningful.

Consider if one or more of these tags fits your diary: Civil Rights, Community, Congress, Culture, Economy, Education, Elections, Energy, Environment, Health Care, International, Labor, Law, Media, Meta, National Security, Science, Transportation, or White House. If your diary is specific to a state, consider adding the state (California, Texas, etc). Keep in mind, though, that there are many wonderful and important diaries that don't fit in any of these tags. Don't worry if yours doesn't.

You can add a private note to this diary when hotlisting it:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from your hotlist?
Are you sure you want to remove your recommendation? You can only recommend a diary once, so you will not be able to re-recommend it afterwards.
Rescue this diary, and add a note:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary from Rescue?
Choose where to republish this diary. The diary will be added to the queue for that group. Publish it from the queue to make it appear.

You must be a member of a group to use this feature.

Add a quick update to your diary without changing the diary itself:
Are you sure you want to remove this diary?
(The diary will be removed from the site and returned to your drafts for further editing.)
(The diary will be removed.)
Are you sure you want to save these changes to the published diary?

Comment Preferences

Subscribe or Donate to support Daily Kos.

Click here for the mobile view of the site