The poll of likely voters shows Duffy leading Kreitlow by just four points, 48-44, slightly outside the poll's 3.72 percent margin of error. There's more bad news for Duffy, in that respondents would prefer "someone else" to him by a slim margin, 47-46, and view him more unfavorably than favorably, 44-42. There's still time for Kreitlow to become that "someone else" in the minds of voters and take advantage of Duffy's upside-down favorability rate.
Also working against Duffy, like it is against pretty much every Republican from the top down, is his vote for the Ryan budget and proposal to end Medicare. By a 51-33 margin, voters are against the plan to end Medicare. His anti-choice position is at odds with his district, as well, with 41 percent of voters less likely to support a candidate who was anti-choice, even in cases of rape and incest. Of course Duffy voted with his majority on the H.R. 3. He was also a cosponsor of the original bill, with its now infamous "forcible rape" language.
This is one of the low-hanging-fruit districts Markos wrote about a few weeks ago. His votes and his positions don't fit his district. While redistricting made it marginally more favorable to Republicans—three points—Obama took this district in 2008 53-45.
So let's help Pat Kreitlow strike a blow against the tea party, and get rid of one more idiot Republican.