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Estimates are made using the early voting statistics gathered by Dr. Michael McDonald at George Mason University and combining it with most recent polling in the state.

Total number of early ballots received: 30,003

IOWA reports 13,812 returned ballots as of Friday morning.
MAINE reports 31 returned ballots as of Monday, Sept. 17.
NORTH CAROLINA reports 10,596 returned ballots as of Friday morning.
OHIO reports 143 returned ballots as of Friday afternoon.
SOUTH CAROLINA reports 1,753 returned ballots as of Thursday afternoon.
SOUTH DAKOTA reports 3,698 returned ballots as of Friday morning.
Analysis after the jump.

UPDATE New numbers are in from Iowa. I have  updated those results below.

North Carolina
North Carolina has received 10596 ballots. Yesterday they had 9365. So far, the early ballots in NC have been heavily Republican.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

50.2% 30.9% 19%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 4241 40%
Romney 5825 55%

No change since yesterday. It's possible Dr. McDonald hasn't updated Iowa today. I will adjust this later if new information comes in. The early voting in Iowa, so far, has been heavily Democratic.

Breakdown of Early Voting Ballots to Date

19.3% 64.1% 16.6%
Candidate Estimated votes Estimated %
Obama 9401 68%
Romney 3872 28%
Iowa update (12:57pm): The new numbers that have come in from Iowa today show a marginal increase in returned ballots from Republicans. Yesterday, ~70% of the ballots returned were from Democrats and ~14% were from Republicans. Today it is 64-19, respectively.


Not enough information. Maine only has 35 ballots, so far. What we do know is that 51.6% of early ballots in Maine, so far, have been from Republicans and 29% from Democrats.


Ohio has received 42 ballots from Franklin county. No demographics on those ballots have been made available. In 2008, Franklin county favored Barack Obama over John McCain 60-39.

Update for Ohio (1:00pm): The numbers of returned ballots in Ohio has increased to 143. Still no partisan breakdown, but the majority of those ballots, all but 3, are still in Franklin county, which, as mentioned before, went heavily toward Obama in 2008.

South Carolina

South Carolina has received 1753 ballots. There is not enough information about SC to make estimates at this time.

South Dakota

South Dakota has received 3698 ballots. There is not enough information about SD to make estimates at this time.

For more information on methodology, please see my original diary here. The raw math is here.

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